Interest Parity Principle | India
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In foreign exchange markets, exchange rates and interest rates are determined by demand and supply, and banks are also free to deposit or borrow foreign currencies. The interest parity principle is applicable to work out the forward margins (i.e., difference between spot and forward foreign exchange rates) In case of an efficient market; the forward margin on an exchange rate will be equal to the difference in the interest rate between the two currencies.
The following example will clarify the same:
Consider that the spot rate between the euro and the dollar is EURO 1.00 = US dollar 1.1280. Assume that the applicable interest rates for three month money are 3 per cent per annum for the euro and 5 per cent per annum for dollars. The 3 month forward rate would be worked out by considering the likely movement in today’s rate in three months’ time, and use the estimate for quoting a 3 month forward rate.
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This would be risky as there is no way to predict the movements and the estimate could go wrong. In the conservative way Bank would have to buy Euros at the current rate of US dollar 1.1280 per euro and deposit them for three months to earn interest at 3 per cent per annum.
However, bank needs dollars today to buy the euro while the counterparty to the transaction would give the dollars, and bank will have to give Euros to counter-party at the rate fixed today, and applicable only three months later. Therefore, dollars will have to be borrowed (for 3 months) at 5% p.a. in order to buy the euro. Thus, while the dollars are costing 5 per cent per annum, the Euros are earning only 3 per cent.
The “cost” of forward Euros is therefore different from today’s rate to the extent of the interest differential. In other words, forward Euros will be costlier in this case to compensate for the 2% per annum interest differential over 3 months.
On the due date of repayment of loan, to repay the loan taken in terms of dollar along with interest thereon, the counter party will be required to give the delivery of dollar, and while the party originally giver of loan, would like to get back the money in euro currency along with interest.
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If the forward rate of a particular currency is greater than the spot rate, then the forward margin is referred to as the premium on the currency, but if the forward rate is lower than the spot, then the concerned currency is known as at discount.
As per the above cited interest rate scenario, the euro would be at a premium in the forward market. In general, a currency with a lower interest rate will be at a premium vis-a-vis a higher interest rate based currency. Forward margins are quoted in the same currency as the spot rate, i.e. if the exchange rate is quoted as US dollar 1.1280 per euro, the forward margin will be quoted in U.S. cents per euro.
If the relationship between the interest differential and forward margins is not maintained, then it will open an arbitrage opportunities, and in turn arbitrage transactions will restore the interest rate parity principle. For example, assume that in the above example, the forward rate is different from that indicated by the interest rate parity principle, and is also at US dollar 1.1280 per euro.
This situation creates an opportunity to make profits without running an exchange risk, by putting through the following sequential cycle of transactions:
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1. Borrow Euros at 3 per cent per annum.
2. Buy US dollar at US dollar 1.1280 = EURO 1.00
3. Deposit US dollar at 5 per cent per annum.
4. Sell US dollar principal and interest forward at the assumed forward rate of US dollar 1.1280 per EURO.
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The above cycle of transactions would give profit at the rate of two per cent per annum without running any exchange risk. In real life, in efficient markets, opportunities to make profits without running risks are not available.
For the assumed and given exchange and interest rate scenario, a number of traders would jump in to put through the cycle of transactions and make a profit.
The effect of such arbitrage transactions would be somewhat as follows:
1. With a number of traders trying to borrow Euros, the interest rate would harden from the going rate of 3%.
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2. The demand for dollars would also tend to make it costlier from the going rate of dollar 1.1280 per EURO.
3. The dollar interest rate will soften as the supply of dollar deposits increases.
4. The euro would also tend to harden in the forward market as demand increases.
In such way, number of transactions in the market will restore the parity between interest differentials and forward margins, and in turn the arbitrage opportunity vanishes.
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The interest rate parity principle holds good in a market which is free to determine exchange and interest rates purely by demand and supply, in other words a market is free of all regulations. The offshore market is a money market and the interest parity principle can best be seen in operation by comparing the forward margins on exchange rates with the interest differentials for the two currencies in the offshore markets.
The interest parity principle does not hold good as far as the forward exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar is concerned. The Indian exchange control does not permit banks in India to freely borrow, or make time deposits in foreign currency, which is at the heart of interest parity.
Also, there is no liquid, established interbank money market for say 1, 2, 3 or 6 month. The interest parity principle is relevant for the forward rates of non-dollar currencies against the rupee. In India, the forward margin being the combined result of the dollar: rupee and dollar currency forward margins.
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