Democracy Dies in Darkness
Trump’s 2024 ‘mandate’ isn’t as robust as Biden’s was in 2020
The outcome of the 2024 election looks like a mix of 2000 and 2004, not 2008 or even 2020.
Column byPhilip Bump
A lot of early analysis of the 2024 presidential election has suffered from three overlapping problems.
First, that vote margins can be influenced by changes in turnout as well as changes in vote preference. If voters stay home, the candidate they would have supported receives fewer votes. And it looks like a lot of 2020 voters stayed home in 2024.
