(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260958 SPC AC 260958 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes should continue. On Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move northeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from eastern parts of the southeastern states northeastward into the Carolinas. Any line of storms that can persist or develop during the day on Friday, could have wind-damage or tornado potential. However, the overall threat on Friday should be less than Thursday, as the upper-level trough moves further northeast away from the stronger instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental United States. This dry and cool airmass should make thunderstorm development unfavorable in most areas. ..Broyles.. 02/26/2023 CLICK TO GETWUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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