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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi.

For additional details, see the latestDay 1 Convective Outlook.

Current Hazardous Weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories


Severe	Slight	Slight	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	No Area	Critical	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 14 Feb

Sig Severe Probabilities: 14 Feb

Tornado Probabilities: 14 Feb

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 14 Feb

Severe Hail Probabilities: 14 Feb

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 14 Feb

Significant Wind Probabilities: 14 Feb

Significant Hail Probabilities: 14 Feb

More climatology datahere.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: February 13 2026 12:26 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: February 13 2026 12:26 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Feb

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Feb

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Feb

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Feb

More climatology datahere.

Latest SPC Publications

Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025:Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published inWea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025:An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published inWea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025:On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published inBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025:On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published inBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024:Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published inWea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024:Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published inWea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023:A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published inBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023:A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published inBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023:A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published inWea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Find more research articles at theSPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Jan 25, 2026	Tornado: 0	Wind: 71	Hail: 0

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NOAA /National Weather Service
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Page last modified: February 14 2026 05:40 UTC

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