Public Policy Polling
®
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web:www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail:information@publicpolicypolling.com
From: Anniken Williams, Public PolicyPolling
®
To: Craig Varoga & Alixandria Lapp at Patriot Majority USA
Subject: Congressional Republicans Vulnerable in Upcoming Re-Elections
Date: April 26, 2018
Thank you for giving us the opportunity to poll in House districts where certain racesmight be competitive this year. Ournew survey finds that 12 districts in Arkansas,Florida, Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Washingtoncould have competitive races. Although Democratic candidatesmay be down in initialmatchups, overall they receive more support than Republican candidates among voters
who are ‘very excited’ to vot
e this year. In all districts, voters have a more negativeopinion of the Republican health care plan than they do the Republican tax plan.Furthermore, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is deeply unpopular in all districts.
AR-2
In
Arkansas’ 2
nd
Congressional District, Republican incumbent French Hill has anapproval rating of 37%, and39% disapprove of his job performance. PresidentTrumphas an approval rating of 49% and a disapproval rating of 48% in Hill
’s district.
Speaker Paul Ryan is unpopular with 31% of voters saying they approve of the job heis doing and a majority (55%)responding that they disapprove. In aninitialhypothetical matchup, Democrat Clarke Tucker receives 42%of the vote and Hillreceives 47%. Although Tucker is down, 48%
who are ‘very excited’ to vote plan to
cast their ballot for him, while 47% support Hill. Alarge majority of voters (77%)indicate they have major (63%)or minor (14%) concerns after Hill voted for a healthcare plan thatallows insurance companies to impose an unfair age tax on people over50. After voters were given moreinformation about the tax and health care plans,Tucker moves closer to Hill with 44% sayingthey will vote for Tuckerand 45% votingfor Hill.
Support OpposeRecently-passedTaxReformLaw*38%38%Yes NoPersonallyBenefitfromTaxLaw*38%
39%
Public Policy Polling
®
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web:www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail:information@publicpolicypolling.com
Major Minor NoneTax Plan Concerns*
49%
23% 23%Concerns About Health Care Law Changes*
59%
18% 18%TaxPlanHealthCarePlanMoreNegativeOpinionOf*21%
38%
PPP surveyed 610 AR-2 voters from April 16-17, 2018. The margin of error is +/-4.0%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.
FL-16
In Florida’s 16
th
Congressional District, Republican incumbent Vern Buchananhas anapproval rating of 44%, and 34%disapprove of his job performance. President Trump
has an approval rating of 47%and a disapproval rating of 50% in Buchanan’s district.
Speaker Paul Ryan is unpopular with 33% of voters saying they approve of the job he isdoing and amajority (59%) responding that they disapprove. In an initial hypotheticalmatchup, Democrat David Shapiro receives 37% of the vote and Buchanan receives 49%.A large majority of voters (83%) indicate they havemajor (65%) or minor (18%)concerns after Buchanan votedfor a health care plan that allows insurance companies toimpose an unfair age tax on people over 50.After voters were given more informationabout the tax and health care plans, 38% say they will vote for Shapiro and 43% will votefor Buchanan.
Support OpposeRecently-passed Tax Reform Law*
44%
40
%
Yes NoPersonallyBenefitfromTaxLaw*39%
44%
Major Minor NoneTax Plan Concerns*
51%
22% 22%Concerns About Health Care Law Changes*
60%
19% 18%TaxPlanHealthCarePlanMoreNegativeOpinionOf*22%
39%
PPP surveyed 655 FL-16 voters fromApril 16-17, 2018.The margin oferror is +/- 3.8%.This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.
Public Policy Polling
®
3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604Phone: 888 621-6988Web:www.publicpolicypolling.comEmail:information@publicpolicypolling.com
IL-12
In
Illinois’ 1
2
th
Congressional District, Republican incumbentMike Bost has anapproval rating of 45%, and 32% disapprove of his job performance. President Trumphas an approval rating of 47%and a disapproval rating of 45% in
Bost’s
district.Speaker Paul Ryan is unpopular with 31% of voters saying they approve of the job heis doing and a majority (53%)responding that they disapprove. In an initialhypothetical matchup, Democrat Brendan Kelly receives 39% of the vote and Bostreceives 44%. Although Kelly is down, 50
% who are ‘very excited’ to voteplan to cas
ttheir ballot for him, while 42% support Bost. A large majority of voters (78%) indicatethey have major (61%) or minor (17%) concerns after Bost voted for ahealth care planthat allows insurance companies to impose an unfair age tax on people over 50. Aftervoters were given more information about the tax and health care plans,Kelly movescloser to Bost with 40% saying they will vote for Kelly and 42% votingfor Bost.
Support OpposeRecently-passedTaxReformLaw*36%
38%
Yes NoPersonallyBenefitfromTaxLaw*35%
41%
Major Minor NoneTax Plan Concerns*
51%
23% 21%Concerns About Health Care Law Changes*
59%
16% 20%TaxPlanHealthCarePlanMoreNegativeOpinionOf*23%
35%
PPP surveyed 622 IL-12 voters from April 16-17, 2018.The margin oferror is +/-3.9%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.
IL-13
In
Illinois’ 13
th
Congressional District, Republican incumbentRodney Davis has anapproval rating of 40%, and39% disapprove of his job performance. President Trumphas an approval rating of 45%and a disapproval rating of 50% in
Davis’
district. SpeakerPaul Ryan is unpopular with 34% of voters saying they approve of the job he is doing anda majority (50%) responding that they disapprove. In aninitial hypothetical matchup,Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan receives 42% of the vote and Davis receives 45%.Although Dirksen Londrigan
is down, 48% whoare ‘very excited’ to vote plan to cast