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Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF)                        M. ThomsonRequest for Comments: 7459                                       MozillaUpdates:3693,4119,5491                                J. WinterbottomCategory: Standards Track                                   UnaffiliatedISSN: 2070-1721                                            February 2015Representation of Uncertainty and Confidence inthe Presence Information Data Format Location Object (PIDF-LO)Abstract   This document defines key concepts of uncertainty and confidence as   they pertain to location information.  Methods for the manipulation   of location estimates that include uncertainty information are   outlined.   This document normatively updates the definition of location   information representations defined in RFCs 4119 and 5491.  It also   deprecates related terminology defined inRFC 3693.Status of This Memo   This is an Internet Standards Track document.   This document is a product of the Internet Engineering Task Force   (IETF).  It represents the consensus of the IETF community.  It has   received public review and has been approved for publication by the   Internet Engineering Steering Group (IESG).  Further information on   Internet Standards is available inSection 2 of RFC 5741.   Information about the current status of this document, any errata,   and how to provide feedback on it may be obtained athttp://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc7459.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 1]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015Copyright Notice   Copyright (c) 2015 IETF Trust and the persons identified as the   document authors.  All rights reserved.   This document is subject toBCP 78 and the IETF Trust's Legal   Provisions Relating to IETF Documents   (http://trustee.ietf.org/license-info) in effect on the date of   publication of this document.  Please review these documents   carefully, as they describe your rights and restrictions with respect   to this document.  Code Components extracted from this document must   include Simplified BSD License text as described in Section 4.e of   the Trust Legal Provisions and are provided without warranty as   described in the Simplified BSD License.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 2]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015Table of Contents1. Introduction ....................................................41.1. Conventions and Terminology ................................42. A General Definition of Uncertainty .............................52.1. Uncertainty as a Probability Distribution ..................62.2. Deprecation of the Terms "Precision" and "Resolution" ......82.3. Accuracy as a Qualitative Concept ..........................93. Uncertainty in Location .........................................93.1. Targets as Points in Space .................................93.2. Representation of Uncertainty and Confidence in PIDF-LO ...103.3. Uncertainty and Confidence for Civic Addresses ............103.4. DHCP Location Configuration Information and Uncertainty ...114. Representation of Confidence in PIDF-LO ........................124.1. The "confidence" Element ..................................134.2. Generating Locations with Confidence ......................134.3. Consuming and Presenting Confidence .......................135. Manipulation of Uncertainty ....................................145.1. Reduction of a Location Estimate to a Point ...............155.1.1. Centroid Calculation ...............................165.1.1.1. Arc-Band Centroid .........................165.1.1.2. Polygon Centroid ..........................165.2. Conversion to Circle or Sphere ............................195.3. Conversion from Three-Dimensional to Two-Dimensional ......205.4. Increasing and Decreasing Uncertainty and Confidence ......205.4.1. Rectangular Distributions ..........................215.4.2. Normal Distributions ...............................215.5. Determining Whether a Location Is within a Given Region ...225.5.1. Determining the Area of Overlap for Two Circles ....245.5.2. Determining the Area of Overlap for Two Polygons ...256. Examples .......................................................256.1. Reduction to a Point or Circle ............................256.2. Increasing and Decreasing Confidence ......................296.3. Matching Location Estimates to Regions of Interest ........296.4. PIDF-LO with Confidence Example ...........................307. Confidence Schema ..............................................318. IANA Considerations ............................................328.1. URN Sub-Namespace Registration for ........................328.2. XML Schema Registration ...................................339. Security Considerations ........................................3310. References ....................................................3410.1. Normative References .....................................3410.2. Informative References ...................................35Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 3]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015Appendix A. Conversion between Cartesian and Geodetic               Coordinates in WGS84 ..................................36Appendix B. Calculating the Upward Normal of a Polygon ............37B.1. Checking That a Polygon Upward Normal Points Up ...........38   Acknowledgements ..................................................39   Authors' Addresses ................................................391.  Introduction   Location information represents an estimation of the position of a   Target [RFC6280].  Under ideal circumstances, a location estimate   precisely reflects the actual location of the Target.  For automated   systems that determine location, there are many factors that   introduce errors into the measurements that are used to determine   location estimates.   The process by which measurements are combined to generate a location   estimate is outside of the scope of work within the IETF.  However,   the results of such a process are carried in IETF data formats and   protocols.  This document outlines how uncertainty, and its   associated datum, confidence, are expressed and interpreted.   This document provides a common nomenclature for discussing   uncertainty and confidence as they relate to location information.   This document also provides guidance on how to manage location   information that includes uncertainty.  Methods for expanding or   reducing uncertainty to obtain a required level of confidence are   described.  Methods for determining the probability that a Target is   within a specified region based on its location estimate are   described.  These methods are simplified by making certain   assumptions about the location estimate and are designed to be   applicable to location estimates in a relatively small geographic   area.   A confidence extension for the Presence Information Data Format -   Location Object (PIDF-LO) [RFC4119] is described.   This document describes methods that can be used in combination with   automatically determined location information.  These are   statistically based methods.1.1.  Conventions and Terminology   The key words "MUST", "MUST NOT", "REQUIRED", "SHALL", "SHALL NOT",   "SHOULD", "SHOULD NOT", "RECOMMENDED", "MAY", and "OPTIONAL" in this   document are to be interpreted as described in [RFC2119].Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 4]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   This document assumes a basic understanding of the principles of   mathematics, particularly statistics and geometry.   Some terminology is borrowed from [RFC3693] and [RFC6280], in   particular "Target".   Mathematical formulae are presented using the following notation: add   "+", subtract "-", multiply "*", divide "/", power "^", and absolute   value "|x|".  Precedence follows established conventions: power   operations precede multiply and divide, multiply and divide precede   add and subtract, and parentheses are used to indicate operations   that are applied together.  Mathematical functions are represented by   common abbreviations: square root "sqrt(x)", sine "sin(x)", cosine   "cos(x)", inverse cosine "acos(x)", tangent "tan(x)", inverse tangent   "atan(x)", two-argument inverse tangent "atan2(y,x)", error function   "erf(x)", and inverse error function "erfinv(x)".2.  A General Definition of Uncertainty   Uncertainty results from the limitations of measurement.  In   measuring any observable quantity, errors from a range of sources   affect the result.  Uncertainty is a quantification of what is known   about the observed quantity, either through the limitations of   measurement or through inherent variability of the quantity.   Uncertainty is most completely described by a probability   distribution.  A probability distribution assigns a probability to   possible values for the quantity.   A probability distribution describing a measured quantity can be   arbitrarily complex, so it is desirable to find a simplified model.   One approach commonly taken is to reduce the probability distribution   to a confidence interval.  Many alternative models are used in other   areas, but study of those is not the focus of this document.   In addition to the central estimate of the observed quantity, a   confidence interval is succinctly described by two values: an error   range and a confidence.  The error range describes an interval and   the confidence describes an estimated upper bound on the probability   that a "true" value is found within the extents defined by the error.   In the following example, a measurement result for a length is shown   as a nominal value with additional information on error range (0.0043   meters) and confidence (95%).      e.g., x = 1.00742 +/- 0.0043 meters at 95% confidenceThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 5]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   This measurement result indicates that the value of "x" is between   1.00312 and 1.01172 meters with 95% probability.  No other assertion   is made: in particular, this does not assert that x is 1.00742.   Uncertainty and confidence for location estimates can be derived in a   number of ways.  This document does not attempt to enumerate the many   methods for determining uncertainty.  [ISO.GUM] and [NIST.TN1297]   provide a set of general guidelines for determining and manipulating   measurement uncertainty.  This document applies that general guidance   for consumers of location information.   As a statistical measure, values determined for uncertainty are found   based on information in the aggregate, across numerous individual   estimates.  An individual estimate might be determined to be   "correct" -- for example, by using a survey to validate the result --   without invalidating the statistical assertion.   This understanding of estimates in the statistical sense explains why   asserting a confidence of 100%, which might seem intuitively correct,   is rarely advisable.2.1.  Uncertainty as a Probability Distribution   The Probability Density Function (PDF) that is described by   uncertainty indicates the probability that the "true" value lies at   any one point.  The shape of the probability distribution can vary   depending on the method that is used to determine the result.  The   two probability density functions most generally applicable to   location information are considered in this document:   o  The normal PDF (also referred to as a Gaussian PDF) is used where      a large number of small random factors contribute to errors.  The      value used for the error range in a normal PDF is related to the      standard deviation of the distribution.   o  A rectangular PDF is used where the errors are known to be      consistent across a limited range.  A rectangular PDF can occur      where a single error source, such as a rounding error, is      significantly larger than other errors.  A rectangular PDF is      often described by the half-width of the distribution; that is,      half the width of the distribution.   Each of these probability density functions can be characterized by   its center point, or mean, and its width.  For a normal distribution,   uncertainty and confidence together are related to the standard   deviation of the function (seeSection 5.4).  For a rectangular   distribution, the half-width of the distribution is used.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 6]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   Figure 1 shows a normal and rectangular probability density function   with the mean (m) and standard deviation (s) labeled.  The half-width   (h) of the rectangular distribution is also indicated.                                *****             *** Normal PDF                              **  :  **           --- Rectangular PDF                            **    :    **                           **     :     **                .---------*---------------*---------.                |        **       :       **        |                |       **        :        **       |                |      * <-- s -->:          *      |                |     * :         :         : *     |                |    **           :           **    |                |   *   :         :         :   *   |                |  *              :              *  |                |**     :         :         :     **|               **                 :                 **            *** |       :         :         :       | ***        *****   |                 :<------ h ------>|   *****    .****-------+.......:.........:.........:.......+-------*****.                                  m      Figure 1: Normal and Rectangular Probability Density Functions   For a given PDF, the value of the PDF describes the probability that   the "true" value is found at that point.  Confidence for any given   interval is the total probability of the "true" value being in that   range, defined as the integral of the PDF over the interval.      The probability of the "true" value falling between two points is      found by finding the area under the curve between the points (that      is, the integral of the curve between the points).  For any given      PDF, the area under the curve for the entire range from negative      infinity to positive infinity is 1 or (100%).  Therefore, the      confidence over any interval of uncertainty is always less than      100%.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 7]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   Figure 2 shows how confidence is determined for a normal   distribution.  The area of the shaded region gives the confidence (c)   for the interval between "m-u" and "m+u".                                *****                              **:::::**                            **:::::::::**                           **:::::::::::**                          *:::::::::::::::*                         **:::::::::::::::**                        **:::::::::::::::::**                       *:::::::::::::::::::::*                      *:::::::::::::::::::::::*                     **:::::::::::::::::::::::**                    *:::::::::::: c ::::::::::::*                   *:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::*                 **|:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::|**               **  |:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::|  **            ***    |:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::|    ***        *****      |:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::|      *****    .****..........!:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::!..........*****.                   |              |              |                 (m-u)            m            (m+u)               Figure 2: Confidence as the Integral of a PDF   InSection 5.4, methods are described for manipulating uncertainty if   the shape of the PDF is known.2.2.  Deprecation of the Terms "Precision" and "Resolution"   The terms "Precision" and "Resolution" are defined inRFC 3693   [RFC3693].  These definitions were intended to provide a common   nomenclature for discussing uncertainty; however, these particular   terms have many different uses in other fields, and their definitions   are not sufficient to avoid confusion about their meaning.  These   terms are unsuitable for use in relation to quantitative concepts   when discussing uncertainty and confidence in relation to location   information.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 8]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20152.3.  Accuracy as a Qualitative Concept   Uncertainty is a quantitative concept.  The term "accuracy" is useful   in describing, qualitatively, the general concepts of location   information.  Accuracy is generally useful when describing   qualitative aspects of location estimates.  Accuracy is not a   suitable term for use in a quantitative context.   For instance, it could be appropriate to say that a location estimate   with uncertainty "X" is more accurate than a location estimate with   uncertainty "2X" at the same confidence.  It is not appropriate to   assign a number to "accuracy", nor is it appropriate to refer to any   component of uncertainty or confidence as "accuracy".  That is,   saying the "accuracy" for the first location estimate is "X" would be   an erroneous use of this term.3.  Uncertainty in Location   A "location estimate" is the result of location determination.  A   location estimate is subject to uncertainty like any other   observation.  However, unlike a simple measure of a one dimensional   property like length, a location estimate is specified in two or   three dimensions.   Uncertainty in two- or three-dimensional locations can be described   using confidence intervals.  The confidence interval for a location   estimate in two- or three-dimensional space is expressed as a subset   of that space.  This document uses the term "region of uncertainty"   to refer to the area or volume that describes the confidence   interval.   Areas or volumes that describe regions of uncertainty can be formed   by the combination of two or three one-dimensional ranges, or more   complex shapes could be described (for example, the shapes in   [RFC5491]).3.1.  Targets as Points in Space   This document makes a simplifying assumption that the Target of the   PIDF-LO occupies just a single point in space.  While this is clearly   false in virtually all scenarios with any practical application, it   is often a reasonable simplifying assumption to make.   To a large extent, whether this simplification is valid depends on   the size of the Target relative to the size of the uncertainty   region.  When locating a personal device using contemporary location   determination techniques, the space the device occupies relative toThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                    [Page 9]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   the uncertainty is proportionally quite small.  Even where that   device is used as a proxy for a person, the proportions change   little.   This assumption is less useful as uncertainty becomes small relative   to the size of the Target of the PIDF-LO (or conversely, as   uncertainty becomes small relative to the Target).  For instance,   describing the location of a football stadium or small country would   include a region of uncertainty that is only slightly larger than the   Target itself.  In these cases, much of the guidance in this document   is not applicable.  Indeed, as the accuracy of location determination   technology improves, it could be that the advice this document   contains becomes less relevant by the same measure.3.2.  Representation of Uncertainty and Confidence in PIDF-LO   A set of shapes suitable for the expression of uncertainty in   location estimates in the PIDF-LO are described in [GeoShape].  These   shapes are the recommended form for the representation of uncertainty   in PIDF-LO [RFC4119] documents.   The PIDF-LO can contain uncertainty, but it does not include an   indication of confidence.  [RFC5491] defines a fixed value of 95%.   Similarly, the PIDF-LO format does not provide an indication of the   shape of the PDF.Section 4 defines elements to convey this   information in PIDF-LO.   Absence of uncertainty information in a PIDF-LO document does not   indicate that there is no uncertainty in the location estimate.   Uncertainty might not have been calculated for the estimate, or it   may be withheld for privacy purposes.   If the Point shape is used, confidence and uncertainty are unknown; a   receiver can either assume a confidence of 0% or infinite   uncertainty.  The same principle applies on the altitude axis for   two-dimensional shapes like the Circle.3.3.  Uncertainty and Confidence for Civic Addresses   Automatically determined civic addresses [RFC5139] inherently include   uncertainty, based on the area of the most precise element that is   specified.  In this case, uncertainty is effectively described by the   presence or absence of elements.  To the recipient of location   information, elements that are not present are uncertain.   To apply the concept of uncertainty to civic addresses, it is helpful   to unify the conceptual models of civic address with geodetic   location information.  This is particularly useful when consideringThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 10]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   civic addresses that are determined using reverse geocoding (that is,   the process of translating geodetic information into civic   addresses).   In the unified view, a civic address defines a series of (sometimes   non-orthogonal) spatial partitions.  The first is the implicit   partition that identifies the surface of the earth and the space near   the surface.  The second is the country.  Each label that is included   in a civic address provides information about a different set of   spatial partitions.  Some partitions require slight adjustments from   a standard interpretation: for instance, a road includes all   properties that adjoin the street.  Each label might need to be   interpreted with other values to provide context.   As a value at each level is interpreted, one or more spatial   partitions at that level are selected, and all other partitions of   that type are excluded.  For non-orthogonal partitions, only the   portion of the partition that fits within the existing space is   selected.  This is what distinguishes King Street in Sydney from King   Street in Melbourne.  Each defined element selects a partition of   space.  The resulting location is the intersection of all selected   spaces.   The resulting spatial partition can be considered as a region of   uncertainty.   Note:  This view is a potential perspective on the process of      geocoding -- the translation of a civic address to a geodetic      location.   Uncertainty in civic addresses can be increased by removing elements.   This does not increase confidence unless additional information is   used.  Similarly, arbitrarily increasing uncertainty in a geodetic   location does not increase confidence.3.4.  DHCP Location Configuration Information and Uncertainty   Location information is often measured in two or three dimensions;   expressions of uncertainty in one dimension only are rare.  The   "resolution" parameters in [RFC6225] provide an indication of how   many bits of a number are valid, which could be interpreted as an   expression of uncertainty in one dimension.   [RFC6225] defines a means for representing uncertainty, but a value   for confidence is not specified.  A default value of 95% confidence   should be assumed for the combination of the uncertainty on each   axis.  This is consistent with the transformation of those forms intoThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 11]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   the uncertainty representations from [RFC5491].  That is, the   confidence of the resultant rectangular Polygon or Prism is assumed   to be 95%.4.  Representation of Confidence in PIDF-LO   On the whole, a fixed definition for confidence is preferable,   primarily because it ensures consistency between implementations.   Location generators that are aware of this constraint can generate   location information at the required confidence.  Location recipients   are able to make sensible assumptions about the quality of the   information that they receive.   In some circumstances -- particularly with preexisting systems --   location generators might be unable to provide location information   with consistent confidence.  Existing systems sometimes specify   confidence at 38%, 67%, or 90%.  Existing forms of expressing   location information, such as that defined in [TS-3GPP-23_032],   contain elements that express the confidence in the result.   The addition of a confidence element provides information that was   previously unavailable to recipients of location information.   Without this information, a location server or generator that has   access to location information with a confidence lower than 95% has   two options:   o  The location server can scale regions of uncertainty in an attempt      to achieve 95% confidence.  This scaling process significantly      degrades the quality of the information, because the location      server might not have the necessary information to scale      appropriately; the location server is forced to make assumptions      that are likely to result in either an overly conservative      estimate with high uncertainty or an overestimate of confidence.   o  The location server can ignore the confidence entirely, which      results in giving the recipient a false impression of its quality.   Both of these choices degrade the quality of the information   provided.   The addition of a confidence element avoids this problem entirely if   a location recipient supports and understands the element.  A   recipient that does not understand -- and, hence, ignores -- the   confidence element is in no worse a position than if the location   server ignored confidence.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 12]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20154.1.  The "confidence" Element   The "confidence" element MAY be added to the "location-info" element   of the PIDF-LO [RFC4119] document.  This element expresses the   confidence in the associated location information as a percentage.  A   special "unknown" value is reserved to indicate that confidence is   supported, but not known to the Location Generator.   The "confidence" element optionally includes an attribute that   indicates the shape of the PDF of the associated region of   uncertainty.  Three values are possible: unknown, normal, and   rectangular.   Indicating a particular PDF only indicates that the distribution   approximately fits the given shape based on the methods used to   generate the location information.  The PDF is normal if there are a   large number of small, independent sources of error.  It is   rectangular if all points within the area have roughly equal   probability of being the actual location of the Target.  Otherwise,   the PDF MUST either be set to unknown or omitted.   If a PIDF-LO does not include the confidence element, the confidence   of the location estimate is 95%, as defined in [RFC5491].   A Point shape does not have uncertainty (or it has infinite   uncertainty), so confidence is meaningless for a Point; therefore,   this element MUST be omitted if only a Point is provided.4.2.  Generating Locations with Confidence   Location generators SHOULD attempt to ensure that confidence is equal   in each dimension when generating location information.  This   restriction, while not always practical, allows for more accurate   scaling, if scaling is necessary.   A confidence element MUST be included with all location information   that includes uncertainty (that is, all forms other than a Point).  A   special "unknown" is used if confidence is not known.4.3.  Consuming and Presenting Confidence   The inclusion of confidence that is anything other than 95% presents   a potentially difficult usability problem for applications that use   location information.  Effectively communicating the probability that   a location is incorrect to a user can be difficult.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 13]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   It is inadvisable to simply display locations of any confidence, or   to display confidence in a separate or non-obvious fashion.  If   locations with different confidence levels are displayed such that   the distinction is subtle or easy to overlook -- such as using fine   graduations of color or transparency for graphical uncertainty   regions or displaying uncertainty graphically, but providing   confidence as supplementary text -- a user could fail to notice a   difference in the quality of the location information that might be   significant.   Depending on the circumstances, different ways of handling confidence   might be appropriate.Section 5 describes techniques that could be   appropriate for consumers that use automated processing.   Providing that the full implications of any choice for the   application are understood, some amount of automated processing could   be appropriate.  In a simple example, applications could choose to   discard or suppress the display of location information if confidence   does not meet a predetermined threshold.   In settings where there is an opportunity for user training, some of   these problems might be mitigated by defining different operational   procedures for handling location information at different confidence   levels.5.  Manipulation of Uncertainty   This section deals with manipulation of location information that   contains uncertainty.   The following rules generally apply when manipulating location   information:   o  Where calculations are performed on coordinate information, these      should be performed in Cartesian space and the results converted      back to latitude, longitude, and altitude.  A method for      converting to and from Cartesian coordinates is included inAppendix A.         While some approximation methods are useful in simplifying         calculations, treating latitude and longitude as Cartesian axes         is never advisable.  The two axes are not orthogonal.  Errors         can arise from the curvature of the earth and from the         convergence of longitude lines.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 14]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   o  Normal rounding rules do not apply when rounding uncertainty.      When rounding, the region of uncertainty always increases (that      is, errors are rounded up) and confidence is always rounded down      (see [NIST.TN1297]).  This means that any manipulation of      uncertainty is a non-reversible operation; each manipulation can      result in the loss of some information.5.1.  Reduction of a Location Estimate to a Point   Manipulating location estimates that include uncertainty information   requires additional complexity in systems.  In some cases, systems   only operate on definitive values, that is, a single point.   This section describes algorithms for reducing location estimates to   a simple form without uncertainty information.  Having a consistent   means for reducing location estimates allows for interaction between   applications that are able to use uncertainty information and those   that cannot.   Note:  Reduction of a location estimate to a point constitutes a      reduction in information.  Removing uncertainty information can      degrade results in some applications.  Also, there is a natural      tendency to misinterpret a Point location as representing a      location without uncertainty.  This could lead to more serious      errors.  Therefore, these algorithms should only be applied where      necessary.   Several different approaches can be taken when reducing a location   estimate to a point.  Different methods each make a set of   assumptions about the properties of the PDF and the selected point;   no one method is more "correct" than any other.  For any given region   of uncertainty, selecting an arbitrary point within the area could be   considered valid; however, given the aforementioned problems with   Point locations, a more rigorous approach is appropriate.   Given a result with a known distribution, selecting the point within   the area that has the highest probability is a more rigorous method.   Alternatively, a point could be selected that minimizes the overall   error; that is, it minimizes the expected value of the difference   between the selected point and the "true" value.   If a rectangular distribution is assumed, the centroid of the area or   volume minimizes the overall error.  Minimizing the error for a   normal distribution is mathematically complex.  Therefore, this   document opts to select the centroid of the region of uncertainty   when selecting a point.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 15]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20155.1.1.  Centroid Calculation   For regular shapes, such as Circle, Sphere, Ellipse, and Ellipsoid,   this approach equates to the center point of the region.  For regions   of uncertainty that are expressed as regular Polygons and Prisms, the   center point is also the most appropriate selection.   For the Arc-Band shape and non-regular Polygons and Prisms, selecting   the centroid of the area or volume minimizes the overall error.  This   assumes that the PDF is rectangular.   Note:  The centroid of a concave Polygon or Arc-Band shape is not      necessarily within the region of uncertainty.5.1.1.1.  Arc-Band Centroid   The centroid of the Arc-Band shape is found along a line that bisects   the arc.  The centroid can be found at the following distance from   the starting point of the arc-band (assuming an arc-band with an   inner radius of "r", outer radius "R", start angle "a", and opening   angle "o"):      d = 4 * sin(o/2) * (R*R + R*r + r*r) / (3*o*(R + r))   This point can be found along the line that bisects the arc; that is,   the line at an angle of "a + (o/2)".5.1.1.2.  Polygon Centroid   Calculating a centroid for the Polygon and Prism shapes is more   complex.  Polygons that are specified using geodetic coordinates are   not necessarily coplanar.  For Polygons that are specified without an   altitude, choose a value for altitude before attempting this process;   an altitude of 0 is acceptable.      The method described in this section is simplified by assuming      that the surface of the earth is locally flat.  This method      degrades as polygons become larger; see [GeoShape] for      recommendations on polygon size.   The polygon is translated to a new coordinate system that has an x-y   plane roughly parallel to the polygon.  This enables the elimination   of z-axis values and calculating a centroid can be done using only x   and y coordinates.  This requires that the upward normal for the   polygon be known.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 16]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   To translate the polygon coordinates, apply the process described inAppendix B to find the normal vector "N = [Nx,Ny,Nz]".  This value   should be made a unit vector to ensure that the transformation matrix   is a special orthogonal matrix.  From this vector, select two vectors   that are perpendicular to this vector and combine these into a   transformation matrix.   If "Nx" and "Ny" are non-zero, the matrices in Figure 3 can be used,   given "p = sqrt(Nx^2 + Ny^2)".  More transformations are provided   later in this section for cases where "Nx" or "Ny" are zero.          [   -Ny/p     Nx/p     0  ]         [ -Ny/p  -Nx*Nz/p  Nx ]      T = [ -Nx*Nz/p  -Ny*Nz/p   p  ]    T' = [  Nx/p  -Ny*Nz/p  Ny ]          [    Nx        Ny      Nz ]         [   0      p       Nz ]                 (Transform)                    (Reverse Transform)               Figure 3: Recommended Transformation Matrices   To apply a transform to each point in the polygon, form a matrix from   the Cartesian Earth-Centered, Earth-Fixed (ECEF) coordinates and use   matrix multiplication to determine the translated coordinates.      [   -Ny/p     Nx/p     0  ]   [ x[1]  x[2]  x[3]  ...  x[n] ]      [ -Nx*Nz/p  -Ny*Nz/p   p  ] * [ y[1]  y[2]  y[3]  ...  y[n] ]      [    Nx        Ny      Nz ]   [ z[1]  z[2]  z[3]  ...  z[n] ]          [ x'[1]  x'[2]  x'[3]  ... x'[n] ]        = [ y'[1]  y'[2]  y'[3]  ... y'[n] ]          [ z'[1]  z'[2]  z'[3]  ... z'[n] ]                         Figure 4: Transformation   Alternatively, direct multiplication can be used to achieve the same   result:      x'[i] = -Ny * x[i] / p + Nx * y[i] / p      y'[i] = -Nx * Nz * x[i] / p - Ny * Nz * y[i] / p + p * z[i]      z'[i] = Nx * x[i] + Ny * y[i] + Nz * z[i]   The first and second rows of this matrix ("x'" and "y'") contain the   values that are used to calculate the centroid of the polygon.  To   find the centroid of this polygon, first find the area using:A = sum from i=1..n of (x'[i]*y'[i+1]-x'[i+1]*y'[i]) / 2Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 17]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   For these formulae, treat each set of coordinates as circular, that   is "x'[0] == x'[n]" and "x'[n+1] == x'[1]".  Based on the area, the   centroid along each axis can be determined by:      Cx' = sum (x'[i]+x'[i+1]) * (x'[i]*y'[i+1]-x'[i+1]*y'[i]) / (6*A)      Cy' = sum (y'[i]+y'[i+1]) * (x'[i]*y'[i+1]-x'[i+1]*y'[i]) / (6*A)   Note:  The formula for the area of a polygon will return a negative      value if the polygon is specified in a clockwise direction.  This      can be used to determine the orientation of the polygon.   The third row contains a distance from a plane parallel to the   polygon.  If the polygon is coplanar, then the values for "z'" are   identical; however, the constraints recommended in [RFC5491] mean   that this is rarely the case.  To determine "Cz'", average these   values:      Cz' = sum z'[i] / n   Once the centroid is known in the transformed coordinates, these can   be transformed back to the original coordinate system.  The reverse   transformation is shown in Figure 5.      [ -Ny/p  -Nx*Nz/p  Nx ]     [       Cx'        ]   [ Cx ]      [  Nx/p  -Ny*Nz/p  Ny ]  *  [       Cy'        ] = [ Cy ]      [   0        p     Nz ]     [ sum of z'[i] / n ]   [ Cz ]                     Figure 5: Reverse Transformation   The reverse transformation can be applied directly as follows:      Cx = -Ny * Cx' / p - Nx * Nz * Cy' / p + Nx * Cz'      Cy = Nx * Cx' / p - Ny * Nz * Cy' / p + Ny * Cz'      Cz = p * Cy' + Nz * Cz'   The ECEF value "[Cx,Cy,Cz]" can then be converted back to geodetic   coordinates.  Given a polygon that is defined with no altitude or   equal altitudes for each point, the altitude of the result can be   either ignored or reset after converting back to a geodetic value.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 18]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   The centroid of the Prism shape is found by finding the centroid of   the base polygon and raising the point by half the height of the   prism.  This can be added to altitude of the final result;   alternatively, this can be added to "Cz'", which ensures that   negative height is correctly applied to polygons that are defined in   a clockwise direction.   The recommended transforms only apply if "Nx" and "Ny" are non-zero.   If the normal vector is "[0,0,1]" (that is, along the z-axis), then   no transform is necessary.  Similarly, if the normal vector is   "[0,1,0]" or "[1,0,0]", avoid the transformation and use the x and z   coordinates or y and z coordinates (respectively) in the centroid   calculation phase.  If either "Nx" or "Ny" are zero, the alternative   transform matrices in Figure 6 can be used.  The reverse transform is   the transpose of this matrix.    if Nx == 0:                              | if Ny == 0:        [ 0  -Nz  Ny ]       [  0   1  0  ]  |            [ -Nz  0  Nx ]    T = [ 1   0   0  ]  T' = [ -Nz  0  Ny ]  |   T = T' = [  0   1  0  ]        [ 0   Ny  Nz ]       [  Ny  0  Nz ]  |            [  Nx  0  Nz ]               Figure 6: Alternative Transformation Matrices5.2.  Conversion to Circle or Sphere   The circle or sphere are simple shapes that suit a range of   applications.  A circle or sphere contains fewer units of data to   manipulate, which simplifies operations on location estimates.   The simplest method for converting a location estimate to a Circle or   Sphere shape is to determine the centroid and then find the longest   distance to any point in the region of uncertainty to that point.   This distance can be determined based on the shape type:   Circle/Sphere:  No conversion necessary.   Ellipse/Ellipsoid:  The greater of either semi-major axis or altitude      uncertainty.   Polygon/Prism:  The distance to the farthest vertex of the Polygon      (for a Prism, it is only necessary to check points on the base).Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 19]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   Arc-Band:  The farthest length from the centroid to the points where      the inner and outer arc end.  This distance can be calculated by      finding the larger of the two following formulae:         X = sqrt( d*d + R*R - 2*d*R*cos(o/2) )         x = sqrt( d*d + r*r - 2*d*r*cos(o/2) )   Once the Circle or Sphere shape is found, the associated confidence   can be increased if the result is known to follow a normal   distribution.  However, this is a complicated process and provides   limited benefit.  In many cases, it also violates the constraint that   confidence in each dimension be the same.  Confidence should be   unchanged when performing this conversion.   Two-dimensional shapes are converted to a Circle; three-dimensional   shapes are converted to a Sphere.5.3.  Conversion from Three-Dimensional to Two-Dimensional   A three-dimensional shape can be easily converted to a two-   dimensional shape by removing the altitude component.  A Sphere   becomes a Circle; a Prism becomes a Polygon; an Ellipsoid becomes an   Ellipse.  Each conversion is simple, requiring only the removal of   those elements relating to altitude.   The altitude is unspecified for a two-dimensional shape and therefore   has unlimited uncertainty along the vertical axis.  The confidence   for the two-dimensional shape is thus higher than the three-   dimensional shape.  Assuming equal confidence on each axis, the   confidence of the Circle can be increased using the following   approximate formula:      C[2d] >= C[3d] ^ (2/3)   "C[2d]" is the confidence of the two-dimensional shape and "C[3d]" is   the confidence of the three-dimensional shape.  For example, a Sphere   with a confidence of 95% can be simplified to a Circle of equal   radius with confidence of 96.6%.5.4.  Increasing and Decreasing Uncertainty and Confidence   The combination of uncertainty and confidence provide a great deal of   information about the nature of the data that is being measured.  If   uncertainty, confidence, and PDF are known, certain information can   be extrapolated.  In particular, the uncertainty can be scaled to   meet a desired confidence or the confidence for a particular region   of uncertainty can be found.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 20]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   In general, confidence decreases as the region of uncertainty   decreases in size, and confidence increases as the region of   uncertainty increases in size.  However, this depends on the PDF;   expanding the region of uncertainty for a rectangular distribution   has no effect on confidence without additional information.  If the   region of uncertainty is increased during the process of obfuscation   (see [RFC6772]), then the confidence cannot be increased.   A region of uncertainty that is reduced in size always has a lower   confidence.   A region of uncertainty that has an unknown PDF shape cannot be   reduced in size reliably.  The region of uncertainty can be expanded,   but only if confidence is not increased.   This section makes the simplifying assumption that location   information is symmetrically and evenly distributed in each   dimension.  This is not necessarily true in practice.  If better   information is available, alternative methods might produce better   results.5.4.1.  Rectangular Distributions   Uncertainty that follows a rectangular distribution can only be   decreased in size.  Increasing uncertainty has no value, since it has   no effect on confidence.  Since the PDF is constant over the region   of uncertainty, the resulting confidence is determined by the   following formula:      Cr = Co * Ur / Uo   Where "Uo" and "Ur" are the sizes of the original and reduced regions   of uncertainty (either the area or the volume of the region); "Co"   and "Cr" are the confidence values associated with each region.   Information is lost by decreasing the region of uncertainty for a   rectangular distribution.  Once reduced in size, the uncertainty   region cannot subsequently be increased in size.5.4.2.  Normal Distributions   Uncertainty and confidence can be both increased and decreased for a   normal distribution.  This calculation depends on the number of   dimensions of the uncertainty region.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 21]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   For a normal distribution, uncertainty and confidence are related to   the standard deviation of the function.  The following function   defines the relationship between standard deviation, uncertainty, and   confidence along a single axis:      S[x] = U[x] / ( sqrt(2) * erfinv(C[x]) )   Where "S[x]" is the standard deviation, "U[x]" is the uncertainty,   and "C[x]" is the confidence along a single axis.  "erfinv" is the   inverse error function.   Scaling a normal distribution in two dimensions requires several   assumptions.  Firstly, it is assumed that the distribution along each   axis is independent.  Secondly, the confidence for each axis is   assumed to be the same.  Therefore, the confidence along each axis   can be assumed to be:      C[x] = Co ^ (1/n)   Where "C[x]" is the confidence along a single axis and "Co" is the   overall confidence and "n" is the number of dimensions in the   uncertainty.   Therefore, to find the uncertainty for each axis at a desired   confidence, "Cd", apply the following formula:      Ud[x] <= U[x] * (erfinv(Cd ^ (1/n)) / erfinv(Co ^ (1/n)))   For regular shapes, this formula can be applied as a scaling factor   in each dimension to reach a required confidence.5.5.  Determining Whether a Location Is within a Given Region   A number of applications require that a judgment be made about   whether a Target is within a given region of interest.  Given a   location estimate with uncertainty, this judgment can be difficult.   A location estimate represents a probability distribution, and the   true location of the Target cannot be definitively known.  Therefore,   the judgment relies on determining the probability that the Target is   within the region.   The probability that the Target is within a particular region is   found by integrating the PDF over the region.  For a normal   distribution, there are no analytical methods that can be used to   determine the integral of the two- or three-dimensional PDF over an   arbitrary region.  The complexity of numerical methods is also too   great to be useful in many applications; for example, finding the   integral of the PDF in two or three dimensions across the overlapThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 22]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   between the uncertainty region and the target region.  If the PDF is   unknown, no determination can be made without a simplifying   assumption.   When judging whether a location is within a given region, this   document assumes that uncertainties are rectangular.  This introduces   errors, but simplifies the calculations significantly.  Prior to   applying this assumption, confidence should be scaled to 95%.   Note:  The selection of confidence has a significant impact on the      final result.  Only use a different confidence if an uncertainty      value for 95% confidence cannot be found.   Given the assumption of a rectangular distribution, the probability   that a Target is found within a given region is found by first   finding the area (or volume) of overlap between the uncertainty   region and the region of interest.  This is multiplied by the   confidence of the location estimate to determine the probability.   Figure 7 shows an example of finding the area of overlap between the   region of uncertainty and the region of interest.                    _.-""""-._                  .'          `.    _ Region of                 /              \  /  Uncertainty              ..+-"""--..        |           .-'  | :::::: `-.     |         ,'     | :: Ao ::: `.   |        /        \ :::::::::: \ /       /          `._ :::::: _.X      |              `-....-'   |      |                         |      |                         |       \                       /        `.                   .'  \_ Region of          `._             _.'       Interest             `--..___..--'          Figure 7: Area of Overlap between Two Circular RegionsThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 23]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   Once the area of overlap, "Ao", is known, the probability that the   Target is within the region of interest, "Pi", is:      Pi = Co * Ao / Au   Given that the area of the region of uncertainty is "Au" and the   confidence is "Co".   This probability is often input to a decision process that has a   limited set of outcomes; therefore, a threshold value needs to be   selected.  Depending on the application, different threshold   probabilities might be selected.  A probability of 50% or greater is   recommended before deciding that an uncertain value is within a given   region.  If the decision process selects between two or more regions,   as is required by [RFC5222], then the region with the highest   probability can be selected.5.5.1.  Determining the Area of Overlap for Two Circles   Determining the area of overlap between two arbitrary shapes is a   non-trivial process.  Reducing areas to circles (seeSection 5.2)   enables the application of the following process.   Given the radius of the first circle "r", the radius of the second   circle "R", and the distance between their center points "d", the   following set of formulae provide the area of overlap "Ao".   o  If the circles don't overlap, that is "d >= r+R", "Ao" is zero.   o  If one of the two circles is entirely within the other, that is      "d <= |r-R|", the area of overlap is the area of the smaller      circle.   o  Otherwise, if the circles partially overlap, that is "d < r+R" and      "d > |r-R|", find "Ao" using:         a = (r^2 - R^2 + d^2)/(2*d)         Ao = r^2*acos(a/r) + R^2*acos((d - a)/R) - d*sqrt(r^2 - a^2)   A value for "d" can be determined by converting the center points to   Cartesian coordinates and calculating the distance between the two   center points:      d = sqrt((x1-x2)^2 + (y1-y2)^2 + (z1-z2)^2)Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 24]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20155.5.2.  Determining the Area of Overlap for Two Polygons   A calculation of overlap based on polygons can give better results   than the circle-based method.  However, efficient calculation of   overlapping area is non-trivial.  Algorithms such as Vatti's clipping   algorithm [Vatti92] can be used.   For large polygonal areas, it might be that geodesic interpolation is   used.  In these cases, altitude is also frequently omitted in   describing the polygon.  For such shapes, a planar projection can   still give a good approximation of the area of overlap if the larger   area polygon is projected onto the local tangent plane of the   smaller.  This is only possible if the only area of interest is that   contained within the smaller polygon.  Where the entire area of the   larger polygon is of interest, geodesic interpolation is necessary.6.  Examples   This section presents some examples of how to apply the methods   described inSection 5.6.1.  Reduction to a Point or Circle   Alice receives a location estimate from her Location Information   Server (LIS) that contains an ellipsoidal region of uncertainty.   This information is provided at 19% confidence with a normal PDF.  A   PIDF-LO extract for this information is shown in Figure 8.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 25]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015     <gp:geopriv>       <gp:location-info>         <gs:Ellipsoid srsName="urn:ogc:def:crs:EPSG::4979">           <gml:pos>-34.407242 150.882518 34</gml:pos>           <gs:semiMajorAxis uom="urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9001">             7.7156           </gs:semiMajorAxis>           <gs:semiMinorAxis uom="urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9001">             3.31           </gs:semiMinorAxis>           <gs:verticalAxis uom="urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9001">             28.7           </gs:verticalAxis>           <gs:orientation uom="urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9102">             43           </gs:orientation>         </gs:Ellipsoid>         <con:confidence pdf="normal">95</con:confidence>       </gp:location-info>       <gp:usage-rules/>     </gp:geopriv>                   Figure 8: Alice's Ellipsoid Location   This information can be reduced to a point simply by extracting the   center point, that is [-34.407242, 150.882518, 34].   If some limited uncertainty were required, the estimate could be   converted into a circle or sphere.  To convert to a sphere, the   radius is the largest of the semi-major, semi-minor and vertical   axes; in this case, 28.7 meters.   However, if only a circle is required, the altitude can be dropped as   can the altitude uncertainty (the vertical axis of the ellipsoid),   resulting in a circle at [-34.407242, 150.882518] of radius 7.7156   meters.   Bob receives a location estimate with a Polygon shape (which roughly   corresponds to the location of the Sydney Opera House).  This   information is shown in Figure 9.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 26]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015     <gml:Polygon srsName="urn:ogc:def:crs:EPSG::4326">       <gml:exterior>         <gml:LinearRing>           <gml:posList>             -33.856625 151.215906 -33.856299 151.215343             -33.856326 151.214731 -33.857533 151.214495             -33.857720 151.214613 -33.857369 151.215375             -33.856625 151.215906           </gml:posList>         </gml:LinearRing>       </gml:exterior>     </gml:Polygon>                     Figure 9: Bob's Polygon Location   To convert this to a polygon, each point is firstly assigned an   altitude of zero and converted to ECEF coordinates (seeAppendix A).   Then, a normal vector for this polygon is found (seeAppendix B).   The result of each of these stages is shown in Figure 10.  Note that   the numbers shown in this document are rounded only for formatting   reasons; the actual calculations do not include rounding, which would   generate significant errors in the final values.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 27]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   Polygon in ECEF coordinate space      (repeated point omitted and transposed to fit):            [ -4.6470e+06  2.5530e+06  -3.5333e+06 ]            [ -4.6470e+06  2.5531e+06  -3.5332e+06 ]    pecef = [ -4.6470e+06  2.5531e+06  -3.5332e+06 ]            [ -4.6469e+06  2.5531e+06  -3.5333e+06 ]            [ -4.6469e+06  2.5531e+06  -3.5334e+06 ]            [ -4.6469e+06  2.5531e+06  -3.5333e+06 ]   Normal Vector: n = [ -0.72782  0.39987  -0.55712 ]   Transformation Matrix:        [ -0.48152  -0.87643   0.00000 ]    t = [ -0.48828   0.26827   0.83043 ]        [ -0.72782   0.39987  -0.55712 ]   Transformed Coordinates:             [  8.3206e+01  1.9809e+04  6.3715e+06 ]             [  3.1107e+01  1.9845e+04  6.3715e+06 ]    pecef' = [ -2.5528e+01  1.9842e+04  6.3715e+06 ]             [ -4.7367e+01  1.9708e+04  6.3715e+06 ]             [ -3.6447e+01  1.9687e+04  6.3715e+06 ]             [  3.4068e+01  1.9726e+04  6.3715e+06 ]   Two dimensional polygon area: A = 12600 m^2   Two-dimensional polygon centroid: C' = [ 8.8184e+00  1.9775e+04 ]   Average of pecef' z coordinates: 6.3715e+06   Reverse Transformation Matrix:         [ -0.48152  -0.48828  -0.72782 ]    t' = [ -0.87643   0.26827   0.39987 ]         [  0.00000   0.83043  -0.55712 ]   Polygon centroid (ECEF): C = [ -4.6470e+06  2.5531e+06  -3.5333e+06 ]   Polygon centroid (Geo): Cg = [ -33.856926  151.215102  -4.9537e-04 ]                Figure 10: Calculation of Polygon Centroid   The point conversion for the polygon uses the final result, "Cg",   ignoring the altitude since the original shape did not include   altitude.   To convert this to a circle, take the maximum distance in ECEF   coordinates from the center point to each of the points.  This   results in a radius of 99.1 meters.  Confidence is unchanged.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 28]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20156.2.  Increasing and Decreasing Confidence   Assume that confidence is known to be 19% for Alice's location   information.  This is a typical value for a three-dimensional   ellipsoid uncertainty of normal distribution where the standard   deviation is used directly for uncertainty in each dimension.  The   confidence associated with Alice's location estimate is quite low for   many applications.  Since the estimate is known to follow a normal   distribution, the method inSection 5.4.2 can be used.  Each axis can   be scaled by:      scale = erfinv(0.95^(1/3)) / erfinv(0.19^(1/3)) = 2.9937   Ensuring that rounding always increases uncertainty, the location   estimate at 95% includes a semi-major axis of 23.1, a semi-minor axis   of 10 and a vertical axis of 86.   Bob's location estimate (from the previous example) covers an area of   approximately 12600 square meters.  If the estimate follows a   rectangular distribution, the region of uncertainty can be reduced in   size.  Here we find the confidence that Bob is within the smaller   area of the Concert Hall.  For the Concert Hall, the polygon   [-33.856473, 151.215257; -33.856322, 151.214973;   -33.856424, 151.21471; -33.857248, 151.214753;   -33.857413, 151.214941; -33.857311, 151.215128] is used.  To use this   new region of uncertainty, find its area using the same translation   method described inSection 5.1.1.2, which produces 4566.2 square   meters.  Given that the Concert Hall is entirely within Bob's   original location estimate, the confidence associated with the   smaller area is therefore 95% * 4566.2 / 12600 = 34%.6.3.  Matching Location Estimates to Regions of Interest   Suppose that a circular area is defined centered at   [-33.872754, 151.20683] with a radius of 1950 meters.  To determine   whether Bob is found within this area -- given that Bob is at   [-34.407242, 150.882518] with an uncertainty radius 7.7156 meters --   we apply the method inSection 5.5.  Using the converted Circle shape   for Bob's location, the distance between these points is found to be   1915.26 meters.  The area of overlap between Bob's location estimate   and the region of interest is therefore 2209 square meters and the   area of Bob's location estimate is 30853 square meters.  This gives   the estimated probability that Bob is less than 1950 meters from the   selected point as 67.8%.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 29]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   Note that if 1920 meters were chosen for the distance from the   selected point, the area of overlap is only 16196 square meters and   the confidence is 49.8%.  Therefore, it is marginally more likely   that Bob is outside the region of interest, despite the center point   of his location estimate being within the region.6.4.  PIDF-LO with Confidence Example   The PIDF-LO document in Figure 11 includes a representation of   uncertainty as a circular area.  The confidence element (on the line   marked with a comment) indicates that the confidence is 67% and that   it follows a normal distribution.     <pidf:presence         xmlns:pidf="urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:pidf"         xmlns:dm="urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:pidf:data-model"         xmlns:gp="urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:pidf:geopriv10"         xmlns:gs="http://www.opengis.net/pidflo/1.0"         xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml"         xmlns:con="urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf"         entity="pres:alice@example.com">       <dm:device>         <gp:geopriv>           <gp:location-info>             <gs:Circle srsName="urn:ogc:def:crs:EPSG::4326">               <gml:pos>42.5463 -73.2512</gml:pos>               <gs:radius uom="urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9001">                 850.24               </gs:radius>             </gs:Circle>   <!--c--> <con:confidence pdf="normal">67</con:confidence>           </gp:location-info>           <gp:usage-rules/>         </gp:geopriv>        <dm:deviceID>mac:010203040506</dm:deviceID>      </dm:device>    </pidf:presence>                Figure 11: Example PIDF-LO with ConfidenceThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 30]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20157.  Confidence Schema   <?xml version="1.0"?>   <xs:schema       xmlns:conf="urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf"       xmlns:xs="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema"       targetNamespace="urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf"       elementFormDefault="qualified"       attributeFormDefault="unqualified">     <xs:annotation>       <xs:appinfo           source="urn:ietf:params:xml:schema:geopriv:conf">         PIDF-LO Confidence       </xs:appinfo>       <xs:documentation           source="http://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc7459.txt">         This schema defines an element that is used for indicating         confidence in PIDF-LO documents.       </xs:documentation>     </xs:annotation>     <xs:element name="confidence" type="conf:confidenceType"/>     <xs:complexType name="confidenceType">       <xs:simpleContent>         <xs:extension base="conf:confidenceBase">           <xs:attribute name="pdf" type="conf:pdfType"                         default="unknown"/>         </xs:extension>       </xs:simpleContent>     </xs:complexType>     <xs:simpleType name="confidenceBase">       <xs:union>         <xs:simpleType>           <xs:restriction base="xs:decimal">             <xs:minExclusive value="0.0"/>             <xs:maxExclusive value="100.0"/>           </xs:restriction>         </xs:simpleType>         <xs:simpleType>           <xs:restriction base="xs:token">             <xs:enumeration value="unknown"/>           </xs:restriction>         </xs:simpleType>       </xs:union>     </xs:simpleType>Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 31]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015     <xs:simpleType name="pdfType">       <xs:restriction base="xs:token">         <xs:enumeration value="unknown"/>         <xs:enumeration value="normal"/>         <xs:enumeration value="rectangular"/>       </xs:restriction>     </xs:simpleType>   </xs:schema>8.  IANA Considerations8.1.  URN Sub-Namespace Registration for      urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf   A new XML namespace, "urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf", has been   registered, as per the guidelines in [RFC3688].   URI:  urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf   Registrant Contact:  IETF GEOPRIV working group (geopriv@ietf.org),      Martin Thomson (martin.thomson@gmail.com).   XML:       BEGIN         <?xml version="1.0"?>         <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN"           "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd">         <html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="en">           <head>             <title>PIDF-LO Confidence Attribute</title>           </head>           <body>             <h1>Namespace for PIDF-LO Confidence Attribute</h1>             <h2>urn:ietf:params:xml:ns:geopriv:conf</h2>             <p>See <a href="http://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc7459.txt">RFC 7459</a>.</p>           </body>         </html>       ENDThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 32]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 20158.2.  XML Schema Registration   An XML schema has been registered, as per the guidelines in   [RFC3688].   URI:  urn:ietf:params:xml:schema:geopriv:conf   Registrant Contact:  IETF GEOPRIV working group (geopriv@ietf.org),      Martin Thomson (martin.thomson@gmail.com).   Schema:  The XML for this schema can be found as the entirety ofSection 7 of this document.9.  Security Considerations   This document describes methods for managing and manipulating   uncertainty in location.  No specific security concerns arise from   most of the information provided.  The considerations of [RFC4119]   all apply.   A thorough treatment of the privacy implications of describing   location information are discussed in [RFC6280].  Including   uncertainty information increases the amount of information   available; and altering uncertainty is not an effective privacy   mechanism.   Providing uncertainty and confidence information can reveal   information about the process by which location information is   generated.  For instance, it might reveal information that could be   used to infer that a user is using a mobile device with a GPS, or   that a user is acquiring location information from a particular   network-based service.  A Rule Maker might choose to remove   uncertainty-related fields from a location object in order to protect   this information.  Note however that information might not be   perfectly protected due to difficulties associated with location   obfuscation, as described inSection 13.5 of [RFC6772].  In   particular, increasing uncertainty does not necessarily result in a   reduction of the information conveyed by the location object.   Adding confidence to location information risks misinterpretation by   consumers of location that do not understand the element.  This could   be exploited, particularly when reducing confidence, since the   resulting uncertainty region might include locations that are less   likely to contain the Target than the recipient expects.  Since this   sort of error is always a possibility, the impact of this is low.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 33]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 201510.  References10.1.  Normative References   [RFC2119]  Bradner, S., "Key words for use in RFCs to Indicate              Requirement Levels",BCP 14,RFC 2119, March 1997,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc2119>.   [RFC3688]  Mealling, M., "The IETF XML Registry",BCP 81,RFC 3688,              January 2004, <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc3688>.   [RFC3693]  Cuellar, J., Morris, J., Mulligan, D., Peterson, J., and              J. Polk, "Geopriv Requirements",RFC 3693, February 2004,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc3693>.   [RFC4119]  Peterson, J., "A Presence-based GEOPRIV Location Object              Format",RFC 4119, December 2005,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc4119>.   [RFC5139]  Thomson, M. and J. Winterbottom, "Revised Civic Location              Format for Presence Information Data Format Location              Object (PIDF-LO)",RFC 5139, February 2008,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc5139>.   [RFC5491]  Winterbottom, J., Thomson, M., and H. Tschofenig, "GEOPRIV              Presence Information Data Format Location Object (PIDF-LO)              Usage Clarification, Considerations, and Recommendations",RFC 5491, March 2009,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc5491>.   [RFC6225]  Polk, J., Linsner, M., Thomson, M., and B. Aboba, Ed.,              "Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol Options for              Coordinate-Based Location Configuration Information",RFC6225, July 2011, <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc6225>.   [RFC6280]  Barnes, R., Lepinski, M., Cooper, A., Morris, J.,              Tschofenig, H., and H. Schulzrinne, "An Architecture for              Location and Location Privacy in Internet Applications",BCP 160,RFC 6280, July 2011,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc6280>.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 34]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 201510.2.  Informative References   [Convert]  Burtch, R., "A Comparison of Methods Used in Rectangular              to Geodetic Coordinate Transformations", April 2006.   [GeoShape] Thomson, M. and C. Reed, "GML 3.1.1 PIDF-LO Shape              Application Schema for use by the Internet Engineering              Task Force (IETF)", Candidate OpenGIS Implementation              Specification 06-142r1, Version: 1.0, April 2007.   [ISO.GUM]  ISO/IEC, "Guide to the expression of uncertainty in              measurement (GUM)", Guide 98:1995, 1995.   [NIST.TN1297]              Taylor, B. and C. Kuyatt, "Guidelines for Evaluating and              Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results",              Technical Note 1297, September 1994.   [RFC5222]  Hardie, T., Newton, A., Schulzrinne, H., and H.              Tschofenig, "LoST: A Location-to-Service Translation              Protocol",RFC 5222, August 2008,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc5222>.   [RFC6772]  Schulzrinne, H., Ed., Tschofenig, H., Ed., Cuellar, J.,              Polk, J., Morris, J., and M. Thomson, "Geolocation Policy:              A Document Format for Expressing Privacy Preferences for              Location Information",RFC 6772, January 2013,              <http://www.rfc-editor.org/info/rfc6772>.   [Sunday02] Sunday, D., "Fast polygon area and Newell normal              computation", Journal of Graphics Tools JGT, 7(2):9-13,              2002.   [TS-3GPP-23_032]              3GPP, "Universal Geographical Area Description (GAD)",              3GPP TS 23.032 12.0.0, September 2014.   [Vatti92]  Vatti, B., "A generic solution to polygon clipping",              Communications of the ACM Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 56-63,              July 1992,              <http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=129906>.   [WGS84]    US National Imagery and Mapping Agency, "Department of              Defense (DoD) World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84), Third              Edition", NIMA TR8350.2, January 2000.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 35]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015Appendix A.  Conversion between Cartesian and Geodetic Coordinates in             WGS84   The process of conversion from geodetic (latitude, longitude, and   altitude) to ECEF Cartesian coordinates is relatively simple.   In this appendix, the following constants and derived values are used   from the definition of WGS84 [WGS84]:      {radius of ellipsoid} R = 6378137 meters      {inverse flattening} 1/f = 298.257223563      {first eccentricity squared} e^2 = f * (2 - f)      {second eccentricity squared} e'^2 = e^2 * (1 - e^2)   To convert geodetic coordinates (latitude, longitude, altitude) to   ECEF coordinates (X, Y, Z), use the following relationships:      N = R / sqrt(1 - e^2 * sin(latitude)^2)      X = (N + altitude) * cos(latitude) * cos(longitude)      Y = (N + altitude) * cos(latitude) * sin(longitude)      Z = (N*(1 - e^2) + altitude) * sin(latitude)   The reverse conversion requires more complex computation, and most   methods introduce some error in latitude and altitude.  A range of   techniques are described in [Convert].  A variant on the method   originally proposed by Bowring, which results in an acceptably small   error, is described by the following:      p = sqrt(X^2 + Y^2)      r = sqrt(X^2 + Y^2 + Z^2)      u = atan((1-f) * Z * (1 + e'^2 * (1-f) * R / r) / p)      latitude = atan((Z + e'^2 * (1-f) * R * sin(u)^3)      / (p - e^2 * R * cos(u)^3))      longitude = atan2(Y, X)      altitude = sqrt((p - R * cos(u))^2 + (Z - (1-f) * R * sin(u))^2)Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 36]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015   If the point is near the poles, that is, "p < 1", the value for   altitude that this method produces is unstable.  A simpler method for   determining the altitude of a point near the poles is:      altitude = |Z| - R * (1 - f)Appendix B.  Calculating the Upward Normal of a Polygon   For a polygon that is guaranteed to be convex and coplanar, the   upward normal can be found by finding the vector cross product of   adjacent edges.   For more general cases, the Newell method of approximation described   in [Sunday02] may be applied.  In particular, this method can be used   if the points are only approximately coplanar, and for non-convex   polygons.   This process requires a Cartesian coordinate system.  Therefore,   convert the geodetic coordinates of the polygon to Cartesian, ECEF   coordinates (Appendix A).  If no altitude is specified, assume an   altitude of zero.   This method can be condensed to the following set of equations:      Nx = sum from i=1..n of (y[i] * (z[i+1] - z[i-1]))      Ny = sum from i=1..n of (z[i] * (x[i+1] - x[i-1]))      Nz = sum from i=1..n of (x[i] * (y[i+1] - y[i-1]))   For these formulae, the polygon is made of points   "(x[1], y[1], z[1])" through "(x[n], y[n], x[n])".  Each array is   treated as circular, that is, "x[0] == x[n]" and "x[n+1] == x[1]".   To translate this into a unit-vector; divide each component by the   length of the vector:      Nx' = Nx / sqrt(Nx^2 + Ny^2 + Nz^2)      Ny' = Ny / sqrt(Nx^2 + Ny^2 + Nz^2)      Nz' = Nz / sqrt(Nx^2 + Ny^2 + Nz^2)Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 37]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015B.1.  Checking That a Polygon Upward Normal Points UpRFC 5491 [RFC5491] stipulates that the Polygon shape be presented in   counterclockwise direction so that the upward normal is in an upward   direction.  Accidental reversal of points can invert this vector.   This error can be hard to detect just by looking at the series of   coordinates that form the polygon.   Calculate the dot product of the upward normal of the polygon   (Appendix B) and any vector that points away from the center of the   earth from the location of polygon.  If this product is positive,   then the polygon upward normal also points away from the center of   the earth.      The inverse cosine of this value indicates the angle between the      horizontal plane and the approximate plane of the polygon.   A unit vector for the upward direction at any point can be found   based on the latitude (lat) and longitude (lng) of the point, as   follows:      Up = [ cos(lat) * cos(lng) ; cos(lat) * sin(lng) ; sin(lat) ]   For polygons that span less than half the globe, any point in the   polygon -- including the centroid -- can be selected to generate an   approximate up vector for comparison with the upward normal.Thomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 38]

RFC 7459                Uncertainty & Confidence           February 2015Acknowledgements   Peter Rhodes provided assistance with some of the mathematical   groundwork on this document.  Dan Cornford provided a detailed review   and many terminology corrections.Authors' Addresses   Martin Thomson   Mozilla   331 E Evelyn Street   Mountain View, CA  94041   United States   EMail: martin.thomson@gmail.com   James Winterbottom   Unaffiliated   Australia   EMail: a.james.winterbottom@gmail.comThomson & Winterbottom       Standards Track                   [Page 39]

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