Playbook: Shock and ORE

Presented by

With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco

On today’s Playbook Podcast: Jack and Dasha discussDonald Trump’s unprecedented efforts to militarize America’s largest cities, the ongoing government shutdown deadlock … and the celebrity on Capitol Hill demanding federal funding to explore space.

Good Monday morning. This isJack Blanchard, still melting in the heat of “October.” Today’s temperatures in D.C. could hit the 80s once again, per theCapital Weather Gang. Apparently amarine heat wave 5,000 miles away in the North Pacific is to blame.

In today’s Playbook …

— Judge blocks latest Trump effort to send troops onto America’s streets.

— Shutdown Day 6: Don’t expect a breakthrough any time soon.

— Gaza peace talks in Egypt as Trump promises first-stage deal this week.

TRUMP LOSES …FOR NOW: All eyes are on the appeals courts today after a Trump-appointed judge blocked the president’s latest attempt to deploy the U.S. military on the streets of America. U.S. District JudgeKarin Immergut late last night ruled against the Trump administration for the second time in two days as it tries to send 200 National Guard troops into Portland, Oregon, against the express wishes of city and state-level leaders.

That military deployment will not now proceed, pending the Trump administration’s appeal to the 9th Circuit Court — which could rule as quickly as today. The three-judge panel must either uphold or stay Immergut’s decision.POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein have the latest

Hold your breath: This is fast becoming one ofthetotemic struggles of the Trump presidency. While Trump’s earlier military deployments to Los Angeles and Washington D.C. had an air of theatrics about them, it’s now become clear the president hopes to normalize the use of the military on American streets to quell protests and enforce his policy agenda. And that’s a big deal for several, seismic reasons.

Firstly — this has never happened before.And if the courts do decide an American president can deploy the military as a domestic law enforcement force, essentially as he or she sees fit, there’s no turning back the clock.

Secondly — it won’t stop with Portland. Defense SecretaryPete Hegseth last night approved the use of 400 National Guard troops from Texas to deploy not just in Oregon, but also in Chicago and elsewhere. White House policy chiefStephen Millervowed Trump’s immigration laws will be enforced “in all fifty states.”

Thirdly —just listen to the rhetoric. This is coming from a president who only last week told a gathering of hundreds of his top generals that American cities should be used as “training grounds” for the U.S. military, and that their job will be to help quell an “enemy within” which is “no different than a foreign enemy — but more difficult in many ways, because they don’t wear uniforms.” Trump added: “At least when they’re wearing a uniform you can take them out.”

In other words:This is part of a wider effort by Trump to both politicize and mobilize the U.S. military. In a speech to U.S. naval recruits yesterday, the president veered repeatedly into campaign mode,telling them that “we have to take care of this little gnat that’s on our shoulder called the Democrats.” This is not the sort of rhetoric presidents have traditionally used with the military.

The resistance: Illinois Gov.JB Pritzkerdecried the plan to deploy Texan troops in Chicago as an “invasion,” and urged “every American” to “speak up and help stop this madness.” California Gov.Gavin Newsom said America “is on the brink of martial law.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK:But the messaging problem for Dems is writ large in a new private polling memo by the Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group. Its battleground-district survey found 89 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed want their Congress member to take steps to keep them safe — but that only38 percent trust Democrats over Republicans with that task. (The memo finds Dems can turn those numbers around by acknowledging crime is an issue and focusing messaging on gun trafficking measures and firearm background checks,POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky and Brakkton Booker report.)

Making the casefor military deploymentson X last night, Stephen Miller said the president had put mass deportations and the border crisis at the heart of his 2024 election campaign (which is true), and had then won a “colossal landslide” (which is …not. But he certainly won.) Miller argued the president therefore has an “absolute moral and constitutional duty” to follow through, and that campaigns by anti-ICE protesters in U.S. cities should be classed as “domestic terrorism.”

The problem with that: So far, the courts disagree. Immergutruled on Saturday that Trump’s attempt to deploy the Oregon National Guard to protect ICE agents in Portland contravenes both federal lawandthe 10th Amendment, and waved away his lawyers’ attempts to characterize “sporadic” protester violence as a “rebellion.” She said Trump’s claims were “untethered” to facts. “This is a nation of Constitutional law, not martial law,” Immergut said.

Not taking ‘no’ for an answer: The Trump administration tried again yesterday, seeking to circumvent Saturday’s order by deploying National Guard troops to Oregon fromother states instead. It began with California, where Trump successfully federalized the National Guard earlier this summer — final decision from the courts still pending — and with Texas, where Gov.Greg Abbottsaid last night he was more than happy to offer up troops.

But a clearly frustrated Immergutsaid this latest move came “in direct contravention” of her earlier decision — and shortly before midnight extended her block for Oregon to cover National Guard from all 50 states.

Like tick follows tock:Naturally, Miller went straight after the judge,describing her ruling as “one of the most egregious and thunderous violations of constitutional order we have ever seen.” Trump hadalready raged against Immergut earlier in the day, saying she “ought to be ashamed” (while wrongly referring to her as male throughout the clip.)

But but but: Immergut is not the uber-liberal, Biden-appointed judge of Republican nightmares. She is a highly experienced federal prosecutor who worked forKenneth Starron the Clinton impeachment — she literally interviewedMonica Lewinsky in 1998 — and was appointed as a district judgeby Trump himself in 2019. Trump yesterday disowned her, blaming bad advice for his choice.

This is not the end of the matter. To repeat: a hugely important appeals court ruling is imminent, and it’s quite possible Trump’s hand will yet be freed to deploy the National Guard as he sees fit. It’s also possible this decision will ultimately be offered up for the Supreme Court to decide. It would be just one more era-defining decision — along with Trump’s tariff powers and the future of birthright citizenship — on the justices’ upcoming schedule.

SPEAKING OF WHICH: The high court’s new term kicks offtoday, and POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein is upwith a deep dive on the relationship between Trump and Chief JusticeJohn Roberts, who “has functioned both as the president’s enabler and a Trump antagonist,” in years past.

“Last week marked the 20th anniversary of Roberts’ appointment — by PresidentGeorge W. Bush — as chief justice,” Josh writes. “At age 70, Roberts may preside over the court for many more years. But critics say the court he oversees is doing little to rein in a president targeting political opponents for criminal prosecution, eliminating hundreds of thousands of federal workers without congressional input, and using funding halts to intimidate the country’s top universities. What’s more, many legal experts say, Roberts has actually emboldened Trump.”

Gear up:“What to watch as a never-ending Supreme Court term begins again,” by CNN’s John Fritze.

SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN

DAY SIX:The government shutdown has entered a new week — with no resolution in sight. Each side is still blaming the other. There’s precious little sign of negotiation. Neither faces any political pressure to cave.

So in short: If your kids want to go to the zoo,best take ‘em this week.

The dynamics of this deadlockare fascinating, with Republicans supremely confident in public, believing they hold the moral high ground after putting forward a clean CR for Dems to support — but increasingly anxious in private over the political salience of Dems’ Obamacare demands. Democrats, meanwhile, are nervous about the real-world impact of the shutdown — and painfully aware of their own lack of off-ramp — yet increasingly determined to put up an unprecedented fight, asWaPo’s Naftali Bendavid and Yasmeen Abutaleb report. It’s very hard to see how it ends.

But one thing’s for sure:We’ll hear plenty more blame game on Capitol Hill today, with the Senate due to reconvene from its weekend break this afternoon. (SpeakerMike Johnson has told House members to stay home for another week.) The next series of Senate shutdown votes are expected around5:30 p.m. this evening, though nobody is expecting a breakthrough.

So what comes next? Some lawmakers are tabbing Oct. 15 — that’s the middle ofnextweek, and the day when active-duty military members are due to miss their first paycheck — as a possible deadline for action, POLITICO’sMeredith Lee Hill reports. Trump told naval officers yesterday that he “will get our service members every last penny” they are owed. It’s possible that a separate piece of legislation funding military paychecks eventually gets passed.More from POLITICO’s Inside Congress

Helpful visual:The EPA, the Education, Commerce, Labor and HUD departments have seen the highest proportion of staff put on furlough,according to a helpful NYT breakdown. DOJ, OPM, Treasury, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security have all been least affected — or most protected — during the shutdown.

PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

ALL EYES ON EGYPT:Officials from the U.S., Israel, Hamas and Middle Eastern countries will meet in Cairo today for talks that could pave the way for a long-sought ceasefire deal,WSJ’s Anat Peled and Summer Said report. The delegations are expected to discuss key stipulations of Trump’s peace proposal, including “Israeli military withdrawal lines in Gaza and the names of high-profile Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for the remaining 48 hostages.”

From the West Wing:Trump last nightwrote on Truth Social that talks are “proceeding rapidly.” “I am told that the first phase should be completed this week, and I am asking everyone to MOVE FAST,” Trump wrote.

Reminder: This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner will be announced on Friday.

Needless to say these are hugely significant moments for the future of the region, with Trump warning of “MASSIVE BLOODSHED” if a deal is not finalised in the coming days. (Related: The NYT’sIsabel Kershner has a good piece on Trump’s strong-arming on Netanyahu over recent days.) Tomorrow marks the two-year anniversary of the horrific terrorist attacks which opened this latest conflict. An end has never felt so close.

View from the ground:While residents of war-torn Gaza are largely wary of Trump’s plan, at least half a dozen people interviewed by the WSJ inside the Palestinian enclave “all had a consistent message: Hamas should accept the U.S.-brokered deal, despite what they see as its shortcomings,”WSJ’s Abeer Ayyoub reports.

AND MEANWHILE IN IRAN:U.S. sanctions have made it “nearly impossible to pay Iran for its oil” — but “China has figured out how to do it anyway,”WSJ’s Laurence Norman and James Areddy report. “The hidden funding conduit has deepened economic ties between the two U.S. rivals in defiance of Washington’s efforts to isolate Iran. The barter-like system works like this ... Iranian oil is shipped to China — Tehran’s biggest customer — and, in return, state-backed Chinese companies build infrastructure in Iran.”

TRAIL MIX

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Cash dash:Roy Cooper raised a whopping $14.5 million during the first 65 days of his Senate campaign in North Carolina, a record-breaking total for a Senate challenger in their first fundraising quarter, POLITICO’sElena Schneider scoops. It’s more than double the figure raised by former RNC ChairMichael Whatley,who brought in $5.8 million since launching his campaign in July.

IN THE GARDEN STATE:In the race to succeed New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a surprising character has emerged as a worthwhile example for both candidates to emulate should they be elected next month: Pennsylvania Gov.Josh Shapiro,POLITICO’s Daniel Han reports. DemocratMikie Sherrill and RepublicanJack Ciattarelli have heaped praise on Pennsylvania, which “underscores its elevated role in American politics: The commonwealth is the country’s preeminent swing state, governed by a rising political star.”

Ciattarelli’s gambit:“New Jersey’s GOP candidate for governor makes big bet on flipping the Legislature,” by POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez and Matt Friedman

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Hoosier daddy? Beau Bayh, a 29-year-old Harvard University law graduate and a Marine Corps captain, is announcing a Democratic bid for Indiana secretary of state, Playbook’s Adam Wren reports. Bayh is the son of former Indiana Gov. and Sen.Evan Bayhand the grandson of the late Sen.Birch Bayh. Democrats have not won statewide office in Indiana since 2012.Full launch video

FIRST IN POLITICO — Ad targets Beshear over Gaza: Pro-Palestinian group IMEU Policy Project is criticizing Kentucky Gov.Andy Beshear over his stances on Israel in anew TV ad in New Hampshire today ahead of the potential 2028 presidential contender’svisit to the early primary state, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky writes in.

The ad hits Beshear fordeclining to tell POLITICO in August whether he would support blocking certain weapons sales to Israel. It also attacks him for calling Israel a critical ally in aJuly Vogue interview. A Beshear spokesperson told POLITICO: “President Trump can and should provide aid to address starvation and suffering in Gaza and he should do so in a way that does not compromise the safety of the Israeli people.”

BEST OF THE REST

HUGE MOMENT IN TV LAND: Bari Weiss is expected to be named today as editor-in-chief of CBS News, with the companyalso expected to acquire Weiss’ digital outlet The Free Press for $150 million.

Per WaPo: “The move heralds a new era at the 98-year-old broadcast network, whose corporate parents made moves to address the Trump administration’s allegations of liberal bias as they sought approval for an $8 billion merger that was finalized in August. The appointment of Weiss, a staunch advocate of Israel and frequent critic of the mainstream media, to lead the company’s news operation follows its hiring last month of a conservative-leaning ombudsman to field complaints about the network’s editorial coverage.”

And guess what? President Trump is now in talks with CBS for an interview on “60 Minutes,”Semafor’s Max Tani and Shelby Talcott reported.

DEVELOPING STORY IN SOUTH CAROLINA:“Video shows blaze that injured 3 at Edisto Island home of SC judge, former SC senator,” by the Post and Courier’s Kailey Cota and Scott Hamilton. Circuit Court Judge Diane Goodsteinwas out walking her dog when her beach home erupted in flames, the Post and Courier reports. “Several neighbors aided paramedics as they rescued former S.C. senatorArnold Goodstein using a canoe and a rope to pull him from the tricky terrain … The State Law Enforcement Division confirmed it is actively investigating the incident.”

BUT AT LEAST WE’RE NOT FRANCE… Where the government just collapsedagain. This one lastedall of 12 hours,per POLITICO’s Victor Goury-Laffont.

I’M JUST A BILL: Bill Nye — formerly known as the Science Guy — will be outside the Capitol at 1 p.m. today to advocate against a proposed 47 percent cut to NASA science from the White House. The effort is backed by The Planetary Society, a group for which Nye serves as CEO. An additional 20 partner organizations in science and education, as well as more than 300 members from across the country, are set to participate.

“When people around the world think of America at its best, they think of rovers on Mars, telescopes opening new windows to the cosmos, and astronauts working together in orbit. But right now, that identity — that leadership — is at risk,” Nye said.

OUT AND ABOUT — The British Ambassador’s Residence hosted its 5th Annual NFL London Games watch party yesterday for the Cleveland Browns–Minnesota Vikings game. Chargé d’AffairesJames Roscoe kicked things off with a few warm words about transatlantic camaraderie, followed by the NFL’sBrendon Plack and Sen.Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), both of whom spoke to the power of sports diplomacy. SPOTTED:MehmetandLisa Oz, Rima Al-Sabah, Wayne Wall, Sean Cairncross, Rian Bahran, Caroline Pham, Alex Flemister, Rob Placek, Jim Goyer, Lucy Ferguson, Ed Roman, Roslyne Turner, James Harris, Millie Stone, Elizabeth Onibokun, Colin Moneymaker, Steve Hartell, Keenan Austin Reed, Tammy Haddad, Virginia Coyne, Tiffany Moore, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Yemisi Egbewole, Niamh Kingand Ed Luce, Jessica Mooreand Arun Gupta.

TRANSITIONS — Joe Van Wyeis now senior adviser for public policy and legislative affairs at Cuneo, Gilbert & LaDuca. He previously worked at P Street. …Roland Hernandezis now staff director for the House Homeland subcommittee on cybersecurity and infrastructure protection under Chair Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.). He previously worked on the Homeland Security Committee. … The Roosevelt Institute has addedAbi Weaver as VP of comms and Patrick Oakford as director of worker power and economic security. Weaver previously worked at the Omidyar Network. Oakford previously worked at the Yale Budget Lab.

ENGAGED — Mike Cummings, an associate at Brunswick Group and a Linda Sanchez and Joe Kennedy alum, andPaige Smith, a reporter with Bloomberg News, got engaged this weekend in Queens, New York. The couple met in 2017 supporting Boston Mayor Marty Walsh’s reelection campaign and started dating when they both worked on the Hill in 2021.Pic

WEEKEND WEDDING —Kelle Strickland, former CEO of the Congressional Institute and a Jo Bonner, Michael Burgess and House Ethics Committee alum, andRon Etter got married this weekend at the home ofSusan andDavid Hirschmann, with the ceremony officiated by former Bonner. The two met more than two years ago at a local brewery.Pic …SPOTTED: Janée Bonner, Lynnel Ruckert, Mildred Webber, Jo-Marie St. Martin, Clayand John Hand, Suhail Khan, ConnieandGary Partoyan, Courtney Johnson, Glynda Becker-Fenter, Susan and Kevin Benhoff and Tim Bennett.

BIRTHWEEK(was Sunday):Jon Banner

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: House Majority LeaderSteve Scalise … Reps.Lloyd Doggett(D-Texas) andVictoria Spartz (R-Ind.) … WSJ’sEliza Collins … Miami MayorFrancis Suarez… WaPo’sAmy Gardner andRuby Mellen…Kathleen Connery Dawe of Sen. Angus King’s (I-Maine) office …Jonathan Alter … Artur Orkisz of the Norwegian Embassy and the American Polish Forum …Ben Kenney … U.S. Chamber of Commerce’sPatrick O’Connor … Investment Company Institute’sEvan Williams…Ashley O’Sullivan… NAM’sAric Newhouse… TIAA’sDavid Nason …Darrell West …Nicole Venable …Steve Grand …Ansley Lacitis andSeth Kolloenof Sen. Maria Cantwell’s (D-Wash.) office …Tracy Sefl …Veronica Smith Wong of Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-Calif.) office …David Andelman …Kristen Gentile …Shannon Finley of Capitol Counsel … POLITICO’sSara Schonhardt,Lily ThompsonandCara Collins…Robert Stacy McCain …Wes Anderson of OnMessage … American Conservation Coalition’sDanielle Franz …Robyn Engibous Andersonof Sen. Dan Sullivan’s (R-Alaska) office …Stephanie Genco of Fortescue …Richard LaMura of Rep. Aaron Bean’s (R-Fla.) office … former Rep.Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.) …Tara DiJulio…Taylor Tougawof the American Conservation Coalition …Emily Davis of the International Trade Administration.

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About The Author : Jack Blanchard

Jack Blanchard is managing editor and author of Playbook, writing and overseeingPOLITICO's flagship politics newsletter for Washington D.C.

Playbook has been the go-to morning newsletter covering U.S. politics for almost two decades, a comprehensive and incisive 6 a.m. read which tees up the day ahead for the most powerful decision-makers in the country.

As lead author Jack infuses Playbook with essential, up-to-the-second information, sharp political analysis and — occasionally — dry wit to kick-start the morning for DC's political crowd.

Jack has been a journalist for more than 20 years, most of them spent in the Parliamentary press gallery back in his native U.K. He first joined POLITICO in 2017 to launch aLondon version of the Playbook newsletter, which he authored for the next three years. He also created and hosted two award-winning podcasts for POLITICO in the U.K.

After running the London newsroom for almost three years, he moved to D.C. at the start of 2025 to take on his current role. He's been trying to find somewhere that sells a decent cup of English tea ever since.

About The Author : Dasha Burns

Dasha Burns is POLITICO Playbook's Chief Correspondent, White House Bureau Chief and Host of "The Conversation," a fresh take on the traditional Sunday show format, going beyond conventional wisdom and short sound bites to broaden the political conversation.

From the briefing room to thebehind-the-scenes of policy-making to thelevers of power getting pulled and tested every day, Dasha digs in to help audiences understand this singular moment from every angle.

Dasha came to POLITICO from NBC News, where she gained widespread attention for her in-depth reporting during the 2022 U.S. midterm elections. Her exclusive interview with Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman sparked a national conversation about health and transparency in politics.

Dasha regularly broke news during the 2024 campaign, first covering Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' campaign — snagging the Florida governor’s first broadcast sit-down — and then covered the Trump campaign, leading NBC's coverage of the July attempt on Trump's life while reporting on-site in Pennsylvania. In an exclusive interview, she broke the news of Trump’s plan to fund IVF treatments for all Americans, and pressed him on his position on Florida’s 6-week abortion ban — leading him to take a clear position on the state’s proposed constitutional amendment.

Born in Ukraine and raised in California, she is proud graduate of the University of California, Berkeley, with degrees in Media Studies and Anthropology.

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