Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Georgia

Aug. 17, 2024

Results of a Georgia New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 661 registered voters from Aug. 9 to 14, 2024.

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	661
Almost certain		55%
Very likely		30%
Somewhat likely		6%
Not very likely		2%
Not at all likely		5%
[VOLUNTEERED] Already voted		0%
[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know/Refused		2%

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to major-party candidates)If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date	Pop.	Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat	Donald Trump, the Republican	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	44%	51%	5%
Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023*	R.V.	44	45	11
* Was asked as a single question without third-party candidates and without a follow-up question for undecided voters.

(Combined presidential ballot, includes leaners to third-party candidates)If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	661
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat		41%
Donald Trump, the Republican		47%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate		5%
Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate		<1%
[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate		0%
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate		2%
[VOL] Another candidate (specify)		<.5%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices		1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

(Initial ask, without leaners)If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	661
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat		39%
Donald Trump, the Republican		46%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate		4%
Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate		<1%
[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate		0%
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate		1%
[VOL] Another candidate (specify)		1%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices		1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		7%

(Leaners, if no candidate selected in initial multi-candidate question)If you had to decide today, would you lean more toward:

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	58
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat		20%
Donald Trump, the Republican		12%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the third-party candidate		4%
Jill Stein [stine], the Green Party candidate		0%
[VOL] Cornel West, the third-party candidate		0%
Chase Oliver, the Libertarian Party candidate		7%
[VOL] Another candidate (specify)		4%
[VOL] Not going to vote/wouldn't vote if those were the choices		12%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		42%

(If candidate selected, including third-party candidates)Are you definitely or probably going to vote for [CANDIDATE SELECTED]?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	627
Definitely		78%
Probably		19%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

(Leaners, if not supporting Trump or Harris in previous multi-candidate questions)If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	81
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat		24%
Donald Trump, the Republican		34%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		42%

(Responses reclassified by age group)In what year were you born?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	661
18-29		19%
30-44		25%
45-64		31%
65+		21%
Refused		3%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	661
Grade school		4%
High school		30%
Vocational or trade school		4%
Some college, no degree		18%
Associate’s degree		10%
Bachelor's degree		21%
Graduate or professional degree		14%
[VOL] Refused		<1%

Would you consider yourself:

[READ LIST]

[IF biracial or multi racial ask: What races would that be?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	661
White		50%
Hispanic or Latino		7%
Black or African American		31%
Asian		2%
American Indian or Alaska Native		<1%
Middle Eastern or North African		<.5%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander		<.5%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)		3%
[VOL] More than one race		2%
[VOL] Refused		4%

Note: Responses to questions after this point are reported only for respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Democrat		32%
Republican		31%
Independent		27%
Another party		3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

(If independent, another party or not sure)And as of today, do you lean more to:

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	195
The Democratic Party		32%
The Republican Party		41%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		27%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
The Democratic Party		44%
The Republican Party		46%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		10%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Donald Trump		38%
Joe Biden		38%
I did not vote		20%
[VOL] Someone else		2%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

(Excluding "I did not vote")Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	444
Donald Trump		47%
Joe Biden		47%
[VOL] Someone else		3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Date	Pop.	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	17%	19%	12%	48%	4%
Apr. 28-May 7, 2024	R.V.	13	20	16	45	6
Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023	R.V.	16	21	14	46	3

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each of the following.

Donald Trump

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date	Pop.	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable	[VOL] Have not heard of	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	33%	18%	8%	40%	0%	1%
Apr. 28-May 7, 2024	R.V.	26	20	12	37	0	4
Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023	R.V.	20	22	13	41	0	4

Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very favorable		27%
Somewhat favorable		19%
Somewhat unfavorable		10%
Very unfavorable		40%
[VOL] Have not heard of		0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

JD Vance

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very favorable		22%
Somewhat favorable		15%
Somewhat unfavorable		13%
Very unfavorable		29%
[VOL] Have not heard of		11%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		10%

Tim Walz [walls]

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very favorable		17%
Somewhat favorable		17%
Somewhat unfavorable		12%
Very unfavorable		25%
[VOL] Have not heard of		16%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		14%

(Ask only in GA)Brian Kemp

[IF NEEDED: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of them?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very favorable		22%
Somewhat favorable		36%
Somewhat unfavorable		17%
Very unfavorable		17%
[VOL] Have not heard of		3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

How much attention are you paying to the upcoming presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
A lot		55%
Some		30%
Not much		11%
None at all		4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<1%

And when it comes to the November election, would you say you’re very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic about voting, not very enthusiastic about voting or not at all enthusiastic about voting?

Date	Pop.	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not very enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	53%	26%	10%	8%	2%
Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023	R.V.	43	26	17	13	<1

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	Very satisfied	Somewhat satisfied	Not too satisfied	Not at all satisfied	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	41%	32%	15%	9%	3%
Apr. 28-May 7, 2024	R.V.	24	35	20	19	2

Do you think Donald Trump is too conservative, not conservative enough, or not too far either way?

Date	Pop.	Too conservative	Not conservative enough	Not too far either way	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	32%	9%	50%	9%
Oct. 22-Nov. 3, 2023	R.V.	29	7	56	8

Do you think Kamala Harris is too liberal or progressive, not liberal or progressive enough, or not too far either way?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Too liberal or progressive		44%
Not liberal or progressive enough		7%
Not too far either way		42%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		7%

If Donald Trump won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?

Date	Pop.	Nothing would change	Minor changes to how things work	Major changes to how things work	He would tear down the system completely	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	3%	15%	50%	29%	3%
Apr. 28-May 7, 2024	R.V.	4	22	46	23	4

(If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system)Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date	Pop.	Very good for the country	Somewhat good for the country	Somewhat bad for the country	Very bad for the country	Neither good nor bad	[VOL] Don't know /Refused	[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change	[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know /Refused
Aug. 9-14, 2024	R.V.	34%	11%	7%	33%	8%	<1%	3%	3%
Apr. 28-May 7, 2024	R.V.	31	14	8	24	13	1	4	4

(Without combination) (If Trump major/minor change or tear down the system)Do you think the changes that Donald Trump would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	510
Very good for the country		36%
Somewhat good for the country		12%
Somewhat bad for the country		7%
Very bad for the country		35%
Neither good nor bad		9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<1%

If Kamala Harris won the election, do you think nothing would change, there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major changes to how things work, or she would tear down the system completely?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Nothing would change		11%
Minor changes to how things work		34%
Major changes to how things work		24%
She would tear down the system completely		26%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

(If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system)Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very good for the country		21%
Somewhat good for the country		15%
Somewhat bad for the country		3%
Very bad for the country		33%
Neither good nor bad		10%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%
[PREVIOUSLY] Nothing would change		11%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused		5%

(Without combination) (If Harris major/minor change or tear down the system)Do you think the changes that Kamala Harris would make would be good for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

IF GOOD/BAD: Is that very or somewhat?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	449
Very good for the country		25%
Somewhat good for the country		18%
Somewhat bad for the country		4%
Very bad for the country		39%
Neither good nor bad		12%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		27%
Somewhat well		19%
Not too well		11%
Not at all well		39%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Can unify the country

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		22%
Somewhat well		20%
Not too well		15%
Not at all well		40%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Cares about people like you

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		33%
Somewhat well		17%
Not too well		10%
Not at all well		37%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Is qualified

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		36%
Somewhat well		15%
Not too well		10%
Not at all well		36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Flip-flops on issues that matter

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		30%
Somewhat well		22%
Not too well		14%
Not at all well		24%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		9%

Is a strong leader

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Kamala Harris very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		27%
Somewhat well		19%
Not too well		11%
Not at all well		39%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

For each of the following, please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well:

Will bring about the right kind of change

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		36%
Somewhat well		15%
Not too well		9%
Not at all well		38%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

Can unify the country

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		24%
Somewhat well		18%
Not too well		12%
Not at all well		43%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Cares about people like you

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		34%
Somewhat well		15%
Not too well		7%
Not at all well		43%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		1%

Is qualified

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		39%
Somewhat well		16%
Not too well		7%
Not at all well		36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

Flip-flops on issues that matter

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		31%
Somewhat well		19%
Not too well		11%
Not at all well		35%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

Is a strong leader

[IF NEEDED: Please tell me if this describes Donald Trump very well, somewhat well, not too well or not at all well.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very well		44%
Somewhat well		15%
Not too well		11%
Not at all well		29%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
[VOL] The economy (including jobs and the stock market)		24%
[VOL] Inflation and the cost of living		9%
[VOL] Abortion		12%
[VOL] Immigration		12%
[VOL] Crime		<.5%
[VOL] Gun policies		<.5%
[VOL] Health care		2%
[VOL] Education		<1%
[VOL] Foreign policy		3%
[VOL] Russia/the war in Ukraine		<.5%
[VOL] China		0%
[VOL] Climate change		<1%
[VOL] The state of democracy/corruption		6%
[VOL] Election integrity		<1%
[VOL] Equality/inequality		3%
[VOL] Polarization/division		3%
[VOL] Racism/racial issues		1%
[VOL] Dislike of opposing candidate		2%
[VOL] Character/competence of candidate		5%
[VOL] The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians		1%
[VOL] Taxes		2%
[VOL] Student loans		<1%
[VOL] Other (specify)		7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Kamala [COMMA-luh] Harris, the Democrat		42%
Donald Trump, the Republican		50%
[VOL] Neither candidate		3%
[VOL] Someone else; specify		1%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on each of the following:

The economy

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Kamala Harris		39%
Donald Trump		57%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		4%

Abortion

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Kamala Harris		54%
Donald Trump		39%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		7%

Immigration

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Kamala Harris		41%
Donald Trump		56%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		3%

Democracy

[IF NEEDED: Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to do a better job on...]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Kamala Harris		50%
Donald Trump		44%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		6%

What single news source do you turn to most often?

This could include a social media site or a news site.

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
[VOL] Fox News		14%
[VOL] CNN		13%
[VOL] MSNBC		4%
[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS		2%
[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality		<.5%
[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC		7%
[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)		5%
[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal		5%
[VOL] Local print or online news organizations		<.5%
[VOL] Social media		22%
[VOL] Friends and family		<.5%
[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)		3%
[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)		3%
[VOL] Conservative news sites		1%
[VOL] Newsmax		3%
[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)		<.5%
[VOL] Doesn’t consume news		3%
[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)		7%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Often		60%
Sometimes		18%
Rarely		11%
Never		11%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<.5%

(If social media user)How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Often		22%
Sometimes		14%
Rarely		15%
Never		37%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		0%
[PREVIOUSLY] Never use social media		11%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused		<.5%

(Without combination) (If social media user)How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	470
Often		25%
Sometimes		16%
Rarely		17%
Never		41%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		0%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?

[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Very liberal		7%
Somewhat liberal		12%
Moderate		40%
Somewhat conservative		17%
Very conservative		19%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representat

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Under $25,000		11%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000		17%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000		32%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000		26%
$200,000 or more		10%
[VOL] Refused		5%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Catholic		10%
Protestant (Christian)		33%
Mormon (LDS)		1%
Jewish		1%
Muslim		<1%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)		25%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox		<.5%
Some other religion (specify)		3%
No religious affiliation		24%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion)Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Yes		39%
No		21%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused		37%
[VOL] Refused		3%

(Without combination) (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion)Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	339
Yes		61%
No		34%
[VOL] Refused		5%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

Date:	Aug. 9-14, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	536
Yes		36%
No		64%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:

• Interviewers spoke with 677 registered voters in Arizona from Aug. 8 to 15; 661 registered voters in Georgia and 655 registered voters in North Carolina from Aug. 9 to 14; and 677 registered voters in Nevada from Aug. 12 to 15.

• Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls.

• Voters are selected for Times/Siena surveys from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 276,000 calls to nearly 183,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points across the four states, plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Nevada and North Carolina. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers tofrequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College polls were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones in Arizona from Aug. 8 to 15, 2024; in Georgia and North Carolina from Aug. 9 to 14, 2024; and in Nevada from Aug. 12 to 15, 2024. In all, 2,670 registered voters were interviewed. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.

The margin of sampling error among registered voters for each state poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points in Arizona and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Nevada and North Carolina. Among the likely electorate, it is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, and plus or minus 4.2 points in North Carolina.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

The L2 voter file for each state was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and homeownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate, based on prior Times/Siena polls, were calculated for each stratum. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Fielding

The samples for each state were stratified by political party, race and region and were fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, and the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 96 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 13 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 12 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available in the state, else classification based on participation in partisan primaries if available in the state, else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• State region (NYT classifications)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• History of voting in the 2020 presidential primary, in North Carolina (L2)

• Major party registration or participation in party primary, in Arizona (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Census tract educational attainment, in Arizona and Nevada

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote. Four-fifths of the final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.2 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.18 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Georgia,1.22 for registered voters and 1.37 for the likely electorate in Nevada, and 1.18 for registered voters and 1.19 for likely voters in North Carolina.

For the sample of completed interviews, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.8 points for the likely electorate in Arizona, plus or minus 4.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 5.1 points for the likely electorate in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.8 points for the likely electorate in Nevada, plus or minus 4.7 points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.7 points for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.24 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Arizona, 1.22 for registered voters and 1.45 for the likely electorate in Georgia, 1.24 for registered voters and 1.35 for the likely electorate in Nevada, and 1.28 for registered voters and 1.28 for the likely electorate in North Carolina.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group	UnweightedAll R.V.s	WeightedAll R.V.s	WeightedLikely Electorate	N
Gender
Men	48%	48%	46%	318
Women	51	51	54	340
Age
18 to 29	17%	19%	14%	115
30 to 44	23	25	21	153
45 to 64	35	31	35	231
65 and older	21	21	26	139
Education
High school	19%	34%	29%	128
Some college	35	31	31	232
College	25	21	23	168
Post-graduate	19	14	16	128
Home Ownership (L2 Model)
Likely renter	28%	26%	20%	183
Likely homeowner	48	51	59	315
Unknown	25	23	21	163
Marital Status (L2 Model)
Married	46%	48%	56%	307
Unknown	54	52	44	354
Party (Self-Reported)
Democrat	31%	31%	34%	207
Republican	31	32	33	207
Independent	27	26	23	176
Party (Based on L2 Data)
Democrat	24%	24%	31%	161
Republican	27	28	35	179
Other	49	48	34	321
Race (L2 Model)
White	54%	52%	57%	356
Hispanic	4	5	4	25
Black	29	30	27	194
Asian	2	2	2	12
Other	9	10	8	59
Race (L2 Model)
White	54%	52%	57%	356
Nonwhite	45	47	43	299
State Region
North	18%	17%	18%	116
DeKalb/Fulton	18	17	18	117
Inner Atlanta Suburbs	18	18	18	118
Outer Atlanta Suburbs	21	22	22	139
South	26	26	25	171
Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)
Voted in last midterm and in a primary	41%	43%	57%	273
Voted in last two midterms	21	20	21	142
Voted in last general, no midterm	10	9	8	66
Did not vote in last general or midterm	14	16	6	95
New registrant	13	12	7	85

Composition of the Sample

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Toplines: August 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters in Georgia

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