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.2017 Aug 10;12(8):e0182837.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182837. eCollection 2017.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

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Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

Akiko Hirata et al. PLoS One..

Abstract

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests:The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Distribution map of the 21 susceptiblePinus species [40].
Fig 2
Fig 2. Conceptual scheme of the present study.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Distribution map of PWN and PWD (a) and regions vulnerable to PWD under current climate conditions (b).
Distributions of PWN were drawn according to EPPO [57]. For Mexico, Spain, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, the presence of PWN was recorded at the country level [57]. Occurrences of PWD were determined according to previous literature [,,–39,58,59].
Fig 4
Fig 4. Details of risk areas in Europe (a), mainland China and Taiwan (b), and South Korea and Japan (c).
Blue lines indicate the provinces where PWD has been reported.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Regions vulnerable to PWD under future climate conditions according to four RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) in the 2070s.
Fig 6
Fig 6. Changes in the areas of vulnerable regions with climate change under four RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s.
Fig 7
Fig 7. Example changes in the areas of vulnerable regions of threePinus species (P.massoniana,P.pinaster, andP.sylvestris).
Upper figures represent native distribution areas of each species and lower figures the area ratio of vulnerable regions to the whole distribution area under each climate condition for each species.
Fig 8
Fig 8. Regions vulnerable to PWD and habitat degradation for susceptiblePinus species under climate change in the 2070s.
Areas integrating dark brown and yellow indicate regions vulnerable to habitat degradation.
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