- Letter
- Published:
The timing of Pleistocene glaciations from a simple multiple-state climate model
Naturevolume 391, pages378–381 (1998)Cite this article
3791Accesses
368Citations
14Altmetric
Abstract
The Earth's climate over the past million years has been characterized by a succession of cold and warm periods, known as glacial–interglacial cycles, with periodicities corresponding to those of the Earth's main orbital parameters; precession (23 kyr), obliquity (41 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr). The astronomical theory of climate, in which the orbital variations are taken to drive the climate changes, has been very successful in explaining many features of the palaeoclimate records1. Nevertheless, the timing of the main glacial and interglacial periods remains puzzling in many respects2,3,4,5. In particular, the main glacial–interglacial switches occur approximately every 100 kyr, but the changes in insolation forcing are very small in this frequency band. Similarly, an especially warm interglacial episode, about 400,000 years ago7, occurred at a time when insolation variations were minimal. Here I propose that multiple equilibria in the climate system can provide a resolution of these problems within the framework of astronomical theory. I present two simple models that successfully simulate each glacial–interglacial cycle over the late Pleistocene epoch at the correct time and with approximately the correct amplitude. Moreover, in a simulation over the past 2 million years, the onset of the observed prominent∼100-kyr cycles around 0.8 to 1 million years ago is correctly reproduced.
This is a preview of subscription content,access via your institution
Access options
Subscription info for Japanese customers
We have a dedicated website for our Japanese customers. Please go tonatureasia.com to subscribe to this journal.
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J. & Shackleton, N. J. Variations in the earth's orbit: Pacemakers of the ice ages.Science194, 1121–1132 (1976).
Imbrie, J.et al. On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles: 1. Linear responses to Milankovitch Forcing.Paleoceanography7, 701–738 (1992).
Muller, R. A. & MacDonald, G. J. Glacial cycles and orbital inclination.Nature377, 107–108 (1995).
Imbrie, J. & Imbrie, J. Z. Modelling the climatic response to orbital variations.Science207, 943–953 (1980).
Ghil, M. & Le Treut, H. Aclimate model with cryodynamics and geodynamics.J. Geophys. Res.86, 5262–5270 (1981).
Saltzman, B., Hansen, A. R. & Maasch, K. A. The late Quaternary glaciations as the response of a three-component feedback system to Earth-orbital forcing.J. Atmos. Sci.41, 3380–3389 (1984).
Howard, W. R. Awarm future in the past.Nature388, 418–419 (1997).
Imbrie, J.et al. On the structure and origin of major glaciation cycles: 2. The 100,000-year cycle.Paleoceanography8, 699–735 (1993).
Paillard, D. Modèles simplifiés pour l'étude de la variabilité de la circulation thermohaline au cours des cycles glaciaire-interglaciaire.Thesis, Univ. Paris-Sud (1995).
Berger, A. Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary climatic change.J. Atmos. Sci.35, 2362–2367 (1978).
Ruddiman, W. F., Raymo, M. E., Martinson, D. G., Clement, B. M. & Backman, J. Pleistocene evolution: northern hemisphere ice sheets and north atlantic ocean.Paleoceanography4, 353–412 (1989).
Stommel, H. M. Thermohaline convection with two stable regimes of flow.Tellus13, 224–230 (1961).
Bryan, F. High-latitude salinity effects and interhemispheric thermohaline circulations.Nature323, 301–304 (1986).
Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J. Two stable equilibria of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.J. Clim.1, 841–866 (1988).
Rooth, C. Hydrology and ocean circulation.Prog. Oceanogr.11, 131–149 (1982).
Thual, O. & McWilliams, J. C. The catastrophic structure of thermohaline convection in a two-dimensional fluid model and a comparison with low-order box model.Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn.64, 67–95 (1992).
Jouzel, J.et al. Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice records.Clim. Dyn.12, 513–521 (1996).
Laskar, J. The chaotic motion of the solar system: A numerical estimate of the chaotic zones.Icarus88, 266–291 (1990).
Raymo, M. The timing of major climate terminations.Paleoceanography12, 577–585 (1997).
Rahmstorf, S. Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle.Nature378, 145–149 (1995).
Manabe, S. & Stouffer, R. J. Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2on the ocean-atmosphere system.Nature364, 215–218 (1993).
Cortijo, E.et al. Eemian cooling in the Norwegian Sea and North Atlantic ocean preceding continental ice-sheet growth.Nature372, 446–449 (1994).
Dansgaard, W.et al. The abrupt termination ofthe Younger Dryas climate event.Nature339, 532–534 (1989).
Bassinot, F. C.et al. The astronomical theory of climate and the age of the Brunhes-Matuyama magnetic reversal.Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.126, 91–108 (1994).
Tiedemann, R.et al. Astronomic timescale for the Pliocene Atlantic δ18O and dust flux records of Ocean Drilling Program site 659.Paleoceanography9, 619–638 (1994).
Adkins, J. F.et al. Variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation during the last interglacial period.Nature390, 154–156 (1997).
Acknowledgements
We thank S. Clemens and to M. Raymo for encouragement and comments on this Letter.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Laboratoire de Modélisation du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA/DSM, Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Didier Paillard
- Didier Paillard
Search author on:PubMed Google Scholar
Corresponding author
Correspondence toDidier Paillard.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Paillard, D. The timing of Pleistocene glaciations from a simple multiple-state climate model.Nature391, 378–381 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1038/34891
Received:
Accepted:
Issue date:
Share this article
Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:
Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.
Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative
This article is cited by
Exponential feedback effects in a parametric resonance climate model
- Maria Teresa Caccamo
- Salvatore Magazù
Scientific Reports (2023)
A gradual change is more likely to have caused the Mid-Pleistocene Transition than an abrupt event
- Etienne Legrain
- Frédéric Parrenin
- Emilie Capron
Communications Earth & Environment (2023)
Brief interviews with hideous stone: a glimpse into the butchery site of Isernia La Pineta — a combined technological and use-wear approach on the lithic tools to evaluate the function of a Lower Palaeolithic context
- Marco Carpentieri
- Gabriele L. F. Berruti
- Carlo Peretto
Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences (2023)
The Mid-Pleistocene Transition: a delayed response to an increasing positive feedback?
- J. D. Shackleton
- M. J. Follows
- A. W. Omta
Climate Dynamics (2023)
Pleistocene allopatric differentiation followed by recent range expansion explains the distribution and molecular diversity of two congeneric crustacean species in the Palaearctic
- Dunja Lukić
- Tom Pinceel
- Zsófia Horváth
Scientific Reports (2021)
