The dynamic between Pakistan and Afghanistan has entered a new era — one in which Afghanistan’s covert actions against Pakistan will be answered in the same coin, without hesitation or the restraint that previously shaped relations. Following the suicide attack on Peshawar’s Frontier Constabulary headquarters, which led to the martyrdom of three FC soldiers, explosions were reported across the Afghan provinces of Khost, Kunar and Paktika later that night.

By the next morning, the Afghan Taliban spokesperson claimed that Pakistan had carried out overnight airstrikes in these regions. Yet the ISPR DG refuted the allegation the following day, stating that Pakistan had conducted no such operation, had not targeted civilians as claimed, and, most notably, that if Pakistan had taken action, it would have openly acknowledged it. This brings us to the new dynamic now taking shape.

The likelihood of any other country conducting airstrikes inside Afghanistan is extremely low, no other country has the immediate motive either. However, with an explicit denial from the military’s media wing, nothing further can be definitively asserted. Pakistan maintains it did not carry out the strikes, and Afghanistan has no means of proving otherwise. In this, Pakistan mirrors Afghanistan’s own posture — the way Kabul covertly supports groups that launch attacks into Pakistan while maintaining plausible deniability. Will Pakistan now adopt the same stance over operations inside Afghanistan? The pattern is becoming clear: no more talks, no more negotiations.

Each attack in Pakistan will be met with a proportionate response in Afghanistan. The time for half measures is over. It is this strict equation that Pakistan must now enforce if Afghanistan is ever to be deterred.

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