Mark Leiter Jr.

Every American League team has officially announced their non-tender decisions. It was a quiet evening in terms of subtractions, with only the Rangers parting with any marquee players. All players who were non-tendered are free agents without going on waivers. A few teams dropped pre-arbitration players from the back of the 40-man roster. It’s possible they preferred not to expose them to waivers and are hopeful of re-signing them to non-roster deals.

Here’s a full list of today’s activity in the AL, while the National League movesare available here. All projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

• The Angels announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Gustavo Campero and catcher Sebastian Rivero. Campero is a depth outfielder who has hit .202/.272/.346 over the past two seasons. Rivero operated as the club’s third catcher for most of the season but spent the final few weeks on the active roster. Neither player had been eligible for arbitration. All their arb-eligible players were easy calls to retain.
• The Astros technically made one non-tender, dropping infielder Ramón Urías after he wasdesignated for assignment earlier in the week. He’d been projected at $4.4MM.
• The Athletics officially non-tendered outfielder JJ Bleday, the club announced. He’d beendesignated for assignment on Tuesday, so this was inevitable unless they found a trade partner. Bleday had been projected at $2.2MM.
• The only non-tenders for the Red Sox were first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and reliever Josh Winckowski, each of whom had beendesignated for assignment on Tuesday. Lowe was projected at $13.5MM, while Winckowski was at $800K.
• The Guardians non-tendered outfielder Will Brennan and relievers Sam Hentges and Nic Enright. The latter had beendesignated for assignment on Tuesday. Hentges hasn’t pitched since undergoing shoulder surgery in September 2024. He underwent a right knee procedure a few months ago and will be delayed this offseason. Brennan only appeared in six MLB games this year and underwent Tommy John surgery while in the minors in June. He’d been projected at $900K.
• The Mariners non-tendered reliever Gregory Santos, reportsFrancys Romero. He’d only been projected at $800K, narrowly above the MLB minimum, so the move was about dropping him from the 40-man roster. Seattle acquired the 26-year-old righty from the White Sox over the 2023-24 offseason. He has only made 16 MLB appearances with a 5.02 earned run average over the past two years because of lat and knee injuries. Seattle also non-tendered relieversTrent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo (the latter of whom wasdesignated for assignment on Tuesday). Thornton had been projected at $2.5MM and is coming off a 4.68 ERA through 33 appearances. He suffered a season-ending Achilles tear in August.
• The Orioles non-tendered swingman Albert Suárez, the team announced. Everyone else in their arbitration class was offered a contract, surprisingly including first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (as first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan). Suárez, 36, was a solid depth starter in 2024. He was limited to five MLB appearances this past season by a flexor strain but is not expected to require surgery.
• The Rangers non-tendered each ofAdolis García,Jonah Heim,Josh Sborz andJacob Webb. MLBTR covered those moves ingreater detail.
• The Rays only non-tendered outfielders Christopher Morel and Jake Fraley, each of whom had beendesignated for assignment earlier in the week.Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times reported last night that the Rays were open to bringing back Fraley at a lower price than his $3.6MM arbitration projection.
• The Royals non-tendered outfielder MJ Melendez and reliever Taylor Clarke, per a club announcement. Melendez, who’d been projected at $2.65MM, was an obvious decision. The former top prospect never developed as hoped and is a career .215/.297/.388 hitter over parts of four seasons. Clarke isn’t as big a name but comes as the more surprising cut. He’d been projected at just $1.9MM and is coming off a 3.25 ERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate over 55 1/3 innings out of the bullpen.
• The Tigers are non-tendering utility player Andy Ibáñez, according toRomero. He’d been projected at $1.8MM. The righty-hitting Ibáñez had been a solid short-side platoon bat for Detroit between 2023-24. His production against southpaws dropped this year (.258/.311/.403), limiting his value. The Tigers optioned the 32-year-old to Triple-A in early June and kept him in the minors until shortly before the trade deadline. Detroit also dropped the six pitchers they’ddesignated for assignment earlier in the week: Tanner Rainey, Dugan Darnell, Tyler Mattison, Jason Foley, Jack Little and Sean Guenther.
• The only Twins non-tender was outfielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr., who’d beendesignated for assignment this morning to make room for the Alex Jackson trade. Everyone in the arbitration class was brought back.
• The White Sox non-tendered outfielderMike Tauchman, as first reported byBruce Levine of 670 The Score. The lefty hitter turned in a solid .263/.356/.400 line in 93 games this past season. Tauchman has gotten on base at plus rates in three straight years but was also non-tendered by the Cubs a year ago. The 34-year-old (35 next month) had been projected for a $3.4MM salary. The Sox also announced they’ve dropped lefty reliever Cam Booser and first baseman Tim Elko. Neither had been eligible for arbitration. The former posted a 5.52 ERA in 39 appearances after being acquired from the Red Sox last winter, while the latter hit .134 in his first 23 MLB games despite a 26-homer season in Triple-A.
• The Yankees announced five non-tenders. RelieversMark Leiter Jr., Scott Effross, Jake Cousins andIan Hamilton were all cut loose, as was pre-arbitration righty Michael Arias. Leiter, who’d been projected at $3MM, never clicked in the Bronx after being acquired at the 2024 deadline. He posted a 4.89 ERA in 70 innings as a Yankee. Hamilton, Effross and Cousins were all projected just above the MLB minimum but are cut to clear roster space. Hamilton was on and off the active roster and posted a 4.28 ERA in 40 big league frames this year. Effross was limited to 11 appearances and has been plagued by various injuries for the past three and a half years, while Cousins is working back from Tommy John surgery. Arias has never pitched in the big leagues and could be brought back on a minor league deal.

The Blue Jays tendered contracts to all unsigned players on the 40-man roster.

The Yankees have optioned right-handerJake Bird to Triple-A, per a team announcement. A corresponding move has not yet been announced, thoughESPN’s Jorge Castillo notes that right-handerMark Leiter Jr. is expected back from the injured list today and could take Bird’s roster spot.

Bird, 29, was one of the Yankees’ trio of potential high-leverage bullpen additions acquired ahead of the trade deadline last week. With a 4.73 ERA and 3.89 FIP to go along with a 26.3% strikeout rate for the Rockies this year, Bird showed himself capable of putting up at least decent numbers even when playing half his games at Coors Field. That was enough to intrigue the Yankees, and they surrendered second base prospectRoc Riggio and pitching prospectBen Shields in order to acquire him. While Bird lacks the track record of dominance thatDavid Bednar andCamilo Doval both offer, he comes with three years of team control after 2025 and the hope was that he could help deepen a bullpen mix that will loseDevin Williams andLuke Weaver to free agency this winter.

It’s only been a few games, but the early returns have not been great. The Yankees found themselves swept at the hands of the Marlins in the days following the deadline and have yet to win a game in August. That slump has left them with just a 1.5 game lead over the Rangers for the final AL Wild Card spot, and Bird has been in the thick of those troubles. After surrendering four runs to the Marlins while recording just one out in his Yankees debut, the right-hander surrendered three runs (two earned) while recording two outs against Texas last night. Those six runs allowed in a combined two innings of work across three appearances leave him with a 27.00 ERA for his Yankees career, and now he’s headed to the minor leagues as New York waits for him to get right.

While an effective version of Bird would undoubtedly make the Yankees’ bullpen better, it’s hard to argue they’re light on talent at the moment. Williams, Weaver, Bednar, and Doval have all had worrying moments at points throughout the season, but each has a strong track record of success in the late innings. And now it seems they’ll be reinforced later today by the return of Leiter, who has been sidelined for the past month due to astress fracture in the fibular head of his left leg. Acquired from the Cubs at last year’s deadline, Leiter’s 4.46 ERA in 41 appearances leaves something to be desired but his underlying metrics remain brilliant. He’s struck out 29.1% of his opponents this year while walking a career-low 7.6%, and he’s paired all that with a career-best 49.0% ground ball rate. If Leiter keeps looking that good in his return to action, that elevated ERA should come back down in a hurry as he helps avoid further bullpen meltdowns in the Bronx.

The Yankees announced today that right-handerMark Leiter Jr. has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left fibular head stress fracture. No timeline for his absence has been provided. RightyClayton Beeter has been recalled in a corresponding move.

Leiter told reporters, includingMax Goodman of NJ Advance Media, that he suffered the injury while covering first base in a game against the Reds on June 24th. As seen inthis video from MLB.com, Leiter was racingElly De La Cruz to first and landed a bit awkwardly around the bag. Remarkably, he stayed in the game at that point and has also made four appearances since suffering that fracture.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, his results have taken a step back since he’s been pitching through the injury. After De La Cruz was safe at first, he then allowed a single, uncorked a wild pitch, issued a walk and allowed another single, taking the loss in that game. In the four subsequent outings, he allowed five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings.

Prior to the injury, his results were quite strong. Going into that game where he suffered the fracture, he had a 3.48 earned run average in 31 innings. His 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 50.6% ground ball rate were all well above average. He recorded two saves and ten holds out ofAaron Boone’s bullpen.

Losing that arm is another blow for the Yankee staff. He is now the eighth pitcher on the club’s IL. The starting staff is withoutGerrit Cole,Luis Gil,Clarke Schmidt andRyan Yarbrough, while the bullpen is down Leiter,Jake Cousins,Fernando Cruz andYerry De los Santos.

Understandably, as the bodies have been piling up, the club has hit a rough skid. They were victorious in Sunday’s game against the Mets, which snapped a six-game losing streak. Four of those six losses came against the surging Blue Jays, who took over first place in the American League East in the process.

As mentioned, it’s unclear how long Leiter should be down. Since he was able to pitch through the injury, perhaps he will only require a minimum stint on the IL. However, all contending clubs look for bullpen upgrades at the deadline and the recent spate of injuries suffered by the Yankees should only increase their urgency in that department.

Photo courtesy of Sam Greene, Imagn Images

The Yankees defeated relieverMark Leiter Jr. in an arbitration hearing,Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.  Leiter will earn $2.05MM for the 2025 season, rather than the $2.5MM salary he was looking to land.

New York picked Leiter up from the Cubs at the trade deadline, and the right-hander posted a 4.98 ERA over 21 2/3 innings in the pinstripes over the rest of the regular season.  Overall, Leiter finished the 2024 campaign with a 4.50 ERA in 58 combined innings with Chicago and New York, along with a very strong 33.6% strikeout rate and some of the best chase and whiff rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Beyond the big strikeout numbers and a 46.2% grounder rate, however, Leiter had a below-average 8.6% walk rate, and his homer rate spiked after the trade to the Bronx.  On the plus side, Leiter got on track for the Yankees during their playoff run, delivering a 1.69 ERA over 5 1/3 innings across six appearances in the ALCS and World Series.

Leiter turns 34 next month, but he is only in his second trip through the arbitration process due to the late-breaking nature of his MLB career.  The righty didn’t make his big league debut until age 26, and it wasn’t until his age-31 season with the Cubs that Leiter started to emerge as a solid bullpen arm.  Leiter has earned 43 holds over the last two seasons, but since arbitration panels generally favor saves as the primary counting stat when gauging reliever salaries, it perhaps isn’t surprising that this panel ruled in the Yankees’ favor.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartzpredicted a $2.1MM salary for Leiter in 2025, so the right-hander’s final salary clocks in just slightly below that projection.  The Yankees’ control over Leiter runs through the 2026 campaign, and today’s decision officially closes the book on all of the Bombers’ arbitration business for the offseason.

Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster substitution for the Yankees, with right-handerIan Hamilton replaced by fellow rightyMark Leiter Jr. Playoff rules dictate that a player removed due to an injury is ineligible to play in that series as well as the following one, so Hamilton won’t be eligible to play in the World Series if the Yankees advance.

The move doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Hamilton was removed from last night’s game against the Guardians with an injury that he appeared to sustain while covering first base on a ground ball. The Yankees described his injury as left calf tightness and it now appears that it’s serious enough that they felt compelled to make a switch.

That could be because they don’t expect Hamilton back in the next few weeks or simply because they didn’t want to play short-handed for the next few days. The Yanks are about to play their second of three consecutive games and used six relievers in last night’s ten-inning contest that they eventually lost. Even if there was a chance that Hamilton’s calf would be healed by later in this series or in the World Series, they might need the extra arm to get through tonight and tomorrow.

Hamilton, 29, wasn’t the most important arm in managerAaron Boone’s bullpen. Last night’s appearances was just his second of this year’s playoffs. But he was solid during the regular season, making 35 appearances with a 3.82 earned run average. He struck out 25.2% of batters faced, walked 8.2% of them and got grounders on 43.8% of balls in play. He earned one save and 11 holds this year, the latter number coming in third on the team behindLuke Weaver andTommy Kahnle.

Leiter, 33, had some strong recent results with the Cubs but struggled after a deadline deal that sent him to the Bronx. From the start of 2022 until the trade, he posted a 3.85 ERA in 168 1/3 innings for the Cubs. In that time, he had a 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate.

At the end of July, the Yanks sent minor leaguersBen Cowles andJack Neely to the Cubs in order to acquire Leiter, but he posted a 4.98 ERA in his 21 appearances for the Yanks after that deal. While many Yankee fans groan at the mere mention of Leiter’s name, the baseball gods were seemingly responsible for a lot of those runs.

As a Yankee, Leiter’s 39% ground ball rate was subpar but his 31.7% strikeout rate was strong and his 8.7% walk rate around average. But he had a .407 batting average on balls in play and a 26.1% homer to fly ball ratio, both of which are unsustainably high. His 2.86 SIERA in that stretch suggests that he was far better than his ERA would have you believe in that small sample.

Leiter was left off the Yankee roster for the ALDS and ALCS but Hamilton’s injury opens the door for him. He and the Yankees will be hoping for better fortune as they look to defeat the Guardians and move on to the World Series. They lead the ALCS two games to one with game four set to begin in Cleveland at 8:08 local time tonight.

Yankees reliever Ian Hamilton left tonight’s Game 3 loss in Cleveland with what the team called left calf tightness. The right-hander toldDan Martin and Greg Joyce of the New York Post that he’ll go for imaging before tomorrow night’s game.

Aaron Boone called upon Hamilton in the sixth inning while New York was trailing 2-1. He issued a leadoff walk to Lane Thomas beforeDaniel Schneemann hit a grounder to first base. Jon Berti knocked the ball down and flipped to Hamilton covering for the out. Hamilton evidently tweaked his calf while running to the bag. He threw a warm-up pitch after a replay of the call at first. He airmailed the throw and was immediately lifted forTim Mayza.

Hamilton had a breakout season in 2023 after signing a minor league contract. He tossed 58 innings of 2.64 ERA ball behind a 28.9% strikeout rate and an excellent 55.3% grounder percentage. His follow-up has been more solid than great. Hamilton allowed 3.82 earned runs per nine across 35 regular season appearances. The strikeouts dipped by a few percentage points while his ground-ball rate plummeted to a pedestrian 43.8% clip. The 29-year-old missed a couple months midseason with a lat strain.

New York has carried Hamilton on each of their playoff rosters, though he hasn’t played a huge role. He made one appearance in the Division Series, working 1 1/3 scoreless frames with three strikeouts in their Game 2 loss to the Royals. This was Hamilton’s first action of the ALCS.

If the Yankees need to replace him on the roster, his season will be over. Players taken out midway through a playoff round are ineligible for the following series. The Post writes that one ofMark Leiter Jr. or Clayton Beeter would step into the bullpen as a replacement. Beeter only has three MLB games under his belt. Leiter has a lot more experience and seems likely to get the call.

Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays (on X) that Boone indicated Leiter was the final cut from the pitching staff when the Yankees set their roster before the series. New York acquired the right-hander from the Cubs at the deadline. Leiter was striking out nearly 35% of batters faced at the time. He has continued to miss a fair number of bats in the Bronx (31.7% strikeout rate) but given up far too much hard contact. Leiter has been tagged for six homers in 21 2/3 innings as a Yankee and has been left off both series rosters to date.

The Yankees dropped tonight’s rubber match against the Rangers by a 10-6 margin. They’ve lost three straight series overall, dropping two of three against the Nationals, Cardinals and Texas. They had a good chance to secure a series victory and stay ahead of the Orioles in the AL East standings on Tuesday, but Clay Holmes surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford in a 7-4 defeat.

It was the 11th save attempt which Holmes has squandered this year, three more than any other pitcher. The Yankees stopped short of officially stripping the right-hander of the closer role, yet it seems they’ll move to more of a committee approach in the short term. Before tonight’s game, skipper Aaron Boone told reporters that he’d be “creative” with the ninth inning (X link via Jack Curry of the YES Network). Boone indicated that Holmes remains in the mix for save chances, though it doesn’t appear that he’ll get every one by default.

To Holmes’ credit, he hasn’t pitched poorly overall in spite of the ugly blown save mark. He carries a solid 3.27 ERA over 55 innings. His 25.2% strikeout percentage and 8% walk rate are fine. Opponents have put nearly two-thirds of their batted balls on the ground. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only teammateTim Hill has gotten grounders at a higher rate. ERA estimators like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.82) still suggest Holmes has been an excellent pitcher.

Despite the impressive rate stats, Holmes has found himself walking a tightrope at times throughout the year. He was utterly dominant early in the season. He didn’t allow an earned run until May 20, a stretch of 20 games and as many innings. Holmes carries a 5.14 earned run average through 35 frames since that point. The plus command he showed early on has become far shakier in recent weeks. Holmes is headed to free agency for the first time in his career at year’s end.

His ups and downs are magnified by a bullpen that has been underwhelming lately. Yankee relievers rank 22nd in ERA since the All-Star Break. That’s partially on Holmes, but their deadline pickups ofMark Leiter Jr. and Enyel De Los Santos haven’t panned out. De Los Santos was blasted over five appearances and quickly waived. Leiter has been very homer-prone since landing in the Bronx. Home runs have also been a problem for Luke Weaver and Jake Cousins.

Aside from Holmes, the Yankees have given their highest-leverage work to Tommy Kahnle and Leiter in the second half. Kahnle has pitched well and could pick up some save chances. Boone also left the door open to a potential closing look for either ofLuis Gil or Clarke Schmidt (X link via Curry).

Both pitchers are returning from the injured list this weekend. They’ll each occupy a rotation spot for the upcoming set against the Cubs. The Yankees will carry asix-man rotation into next week before deciding whether to bump someone to relief.Nestor Cortes seems the likeliest candidate for a bullpen move, though he doesn’t have the velocity typically associated with a closer. Gil and Schmidt have more prototypical closing stuff.

The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-handerMark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs. In return, the Cubs will receive infielderBen Cowles and right-handerJack Neely. The Yankees had two open 40-man spots and jump to 39, while the Cubs drop down to 38.

Leiter, now 33, has been great for the Cubs over the past few years after a late-bloomer trajectory. The son ofMark Leiter and nephew ofAl Leiter, the younger Mark made it to the big leagues by 2017 but didn’t impress in his first tastes of the show. By the end of 2018, he had a 5.53 earned run average in 114 big league innings. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2019 and was on the shelf for an extended period of time. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in 2021 but didn’t get a call to the show.

A minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2022 turned into the opportunity he needed. He was selected to the big league roster by mid-April that year and eventually tossed 65 2/3 innings for the Cubs with a 3.99 ERA. He struck out 25.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 8.9% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.9% rate.

Despite that generally strong work, he was nudged off the club’s roster in January of 2023. He had exhausted his final option year and so the Cubs designated him for assignment, with all 29 clubs passing on the chance to grab him off waivers. He elected free agency but re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league deal prior to the next season.

He was added back to the roster for Opening Day and has been a key part of the Chicago bullpen since then. Going back to the start of 2023, he has a 3.75 ERA in 100 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate is up to 30.9% in that time while he still has decent walk and ground ball rates of 8.8% and 47.1% respectively.

This year’s 4.21 ERA doesn’t look pretty but that’s mostly due to a tiny strand rate of 55%, well below the 71.9% league average. Since he’s striking out 34.9% of batters faced and also getting grounders at a 50.6% clip, his 2.11 FIP and 2.42 SIERA suggest he’s been about two runs better than his ERA would have you believe.

The Cubs have been balancing present and future needs at this deadline.Just over a week ago, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said that the club would be prioritizing “2025 and beyond” in their transactions. That didn’t necessarily point to a deadline selloff, as the club then went out and acquiredIsaac Paredes from the Rays andNate Pearson from the Blue Jays, with both of those players having multiple years of control.

But there were also some rumors that they might make some pitching available and there’s a logic to Leiter being moved out. Due to his unusual trajectory, Leiter still has a couple of years of club control remaining after this one. But given his age, the Cubs probably didn’t consider him a core piece of their future-focused agenda and made him available.

Those circumstances are likely also why the win-now Yankees wanted to get him. He only just qualified for arbitration for the first time coming into this season and is making $1.5MM, not much above this year’s $740K league minimum. The Yankees are slated to pay the competitive balance tax for a third straight year and finish well above the top tier. That means they face a 110% tax rate for any new spending, so Leiter’s minimal salary fits in nicely for them, and they can keep him around for two more years beyond this one.

While Leiter is cheap in terms of dollars, the Yankees have paid the price of two prospects to get him. Neely, 24, was an 11th-round pick in the 2021 draft. He’s been exclusively a reliever in his professional career, racking up significant strikeout totals. In 160 1/3 minor league innings overall, he has a 2.75 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. That includes 41 2/3 innings this year between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.81 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate.Baseball America currently lists him as the #20 prospect in the Yankees’ system.

Cowles, 24, was a 10th-round pick in 2021 and has played in 88 Double-A games this year. His .294/.376/.472 batting line leads to a strong 141 wRC+, indicating he’s been 41% better than league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play is high but he’s also got strong walk and strikeout rates of 10.3% and 17.7%, respectively. He also has 14 steals and has lined up at the three infield spots to the left of first base.

Both Neely and Cowles are Rule 5 eligible this winter, so the Yankees would have been facing a decision about whether or not to add them to their 40-man roster. Instead, they have cashed them in for an immediate bullpen upgrade, meaning those decisions will now transfer to Chicago.

Rob Zamparelli first reportedon X that Leiter was headed to the Yankees. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN relayed the full tradeon X.

The Cubs swung perhaps the most shocking trade of the summer so far today when theyacquired third basemanIsaac Paredes from the Rays in exchange for young sluggerChristopher Morel, relief prospectHunter Bigge, and pitching prospectTy Johnson. Paredes, as one of the best hitters available this summer, was rumored to be of interest to a number of win-now clubs such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners, but instead ended up in Chicago with a club that’s just 51-56 last year and recently saw its president of baseball operations admit the club wasprioritizing the future with its approach to this year’s deadline.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’sacquisition of Blue Jays relieverNate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, asJon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants leftyBlake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leadingThe Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-handerJameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon,Justin Steele, andShota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell,Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handersHector Neris,Julian Merryweather, andMark Leiter Jr. as well as southpawDrew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns,The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MMaccording to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Rickettssuggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubsdid not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.

Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”

While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.

It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition ofTrevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).

Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.

Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reportedover the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.

This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning sinceAdbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.