Cubs Rumors

It’s not often that the top free agent doesn’t get much attention from the team they’re departing but that might end up being the case this winter. Even amid an up-and-down season where he was dogged by injuries,Kyle Tucker was a key piece of the team that got the Cubs back into the NLDS for the first time since 2017. While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer praised Tucker andsuggested he’d be in contact with the outfielder’s camp this winter, virtually all reporting on the subject suggests the Cubs aren’t going to pursue a reunion in a serious manner.

The team’s focus appears to be on pitching, at least for the time being. They’ve already signed right-handerPhil Maton to help bolster their bullpen. After bringing southpawShota Imanaga back on a qualifying offer, they still figure to explore the market for top-of-the-rotation pitching options. A deal for someone likeMichael King,Ranger Suarez, orTatsuya Imai would certainly make sense for a team that ran out of pitching in October due to injuries toCade Horton andJustin Steele. A trade also can’t be ruled out, with players likeEdward Cabrera,Sandy Alcantara,Joe Ryan,Pablo Lopez, andMacKenzie Gore all expected to be at least somewhat available this winter.

Even as the focus appears to be on the top of the rotation, however, the void Tucker figures to leave in the lineup is undeniable. The superstar delivered his fifth consecutive season worth at least 4.0 fWAR in 2025 as he slashed .266/.377/.464 with a 136 wRC+ in 136 games. That sort of production would be very difficult to replace internally, even with talented youngsters likeMoises Ballesteros,Owen Caissie, andKevin Alcantara knocking on the door of the majors. Ballesteros looked the best of the bunch in his cup of coffee with the big league club last year, hitting an impressive .298/.394/.474 across 66 trips to the plate in 20 games. Strong as that production was, however, it would be unreasonable to expect a 22-year-old rookie to replicate that over a full season.

Perhaps it would be understandable to roll the dice on those internal options if the Cubs had more certainty around the rest of the diamond, but the question marks are undeniable.Carson Kelly seems unlikely to recreate his career year at the plate (115 wRC+) from 2025 headed into his age-31 campaign.Matt Shaw began to show signs of life in the second half but his 93 wRC+ on the season was subpar.Dansby Swanson (99 wRC+) delivered his second consecutive below-average offensive season last year.

One big x-factor isPete Crow-Armstrong. The budding superstar delivered a 30-30 season in 2025 and finished 9th in NL MVP voting off the back of a brilliant campaign, but his OPS dropped more than 200 points between the first half and the second half. Counting on the 23-year-old to lead the Cubs’ offense in place of Tucker next year would be a risky gamble. Also, Hoerner, Happ andSeiya Suzuki are slated for free agency next winter. Adding a reliable bat to the lineup could go a long way to preventing a step back headed into the 2027 season while also providing reinforcements for a 2026 team that will face lots of questions without Tucker in the fold.

The question, of course, becomes the team’s budget. The Cubs have been very hesitant to spend beyond the competitive balance tax for the past several years, treating it as a soft cap on spending. RosterResourceprojects them for a $197MM CBT figure in 2026 as things stand. The base threshold of the tax will be $244MM next year, giving them a bit more than $45MM of wiggle room.

With needs in the bullpen and the rotation, that could dry up in a hurry. Signing someone likeBo Bichette,Alex Bregman, orKyle Schwarber wouldn’t leave a ton of room for pitching additions. Even a less expensive addition likeKazuma Okamoto orEugenio Suarez might be challenge to make work if the team is unwilling to spend beyond the first threshold of the luxury tax.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will proceed with their offense headed into 2026? Will they hope an offensive nucleus of Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, andMichael Busch will be enough to weather the loss of Tucker? Or will they bring in an impact hitter to improve the lineup? Have your say in the poll below:

The Cubs are among the teams with interest inRyan Helsley,reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Chicago joins the Tigers as known suitors, but it seems Helsley has heard from half the league.The Athletic’s Katie Woo writes that around 15 clubs have been in contact with the righty’s camp to express interest.

Detroit has pursued Helsley as a starting pitcher. That’s a surprise even in a league that has become more willing to gamble on reliever to starter conversions over the past couple years. Helsley has never started a game in the majors and has not been a full-time starting pitcher since the 2018 season divided between Double-A and Triple-A. It doesn’t seem that Helsley is demanding a rotation role. The 31-year-old told Woo that while he’s open to starting, he’s quite comfortable pitching at the end of games.

“I missed starting probably the first half of my career, but once I really started closing, I didn’t think about it as much,” Helsley said. “Learning a new pitch would be something I could pick up, obviously, but it’d be a learning curve throughout this first year to figure out how to be a major league starting pitcher.” Helsley said he “(knows what he’s) capable of as a reliever,” even as he expressed confidence that he could be a starter.

As he pointed out, he’d certainly need to expand his repertoire to start. Helsley has been almost exclusively fastball-slider against hitters of either handedness. He sporadically mixes in a curveball but has never thrown a changeup or cutter with regularity. He’d probably need to add one of those offerings to keep left-handed hitters off balance. Helsley has done a good job against lefties over the course of his career, but that’d be a lot more challenging if needs to navigate a lineup multiple times with lesser stuff than he can throw when he’s only working one inning.

The quality of the stuff is a big selling point for Helsley, who hit free agency coming off one of the worst stretches of his career. Opposing hitters tattooed him for a 7.20 earned run average while batting .301/.379/.554 in 95 plate appearances after a deadline trade from St. Louis to the Mets. The raw stuff was as impressive as ever. Helsley’s fastball sat in the 99-100 MPH range and his upper-80s slider remained an excellent pitch. The heater played well below its velocity, though, as opponents turned it around for four home runs and five doubles in the final two months of the season.

Helsley said he has identified a pitch-tipping issue with his hand positioning that explains why hitters were so comfortable against him down the stretch. Based on the seemingly robust interest, it appears teams agree he can at least get back to being an All-Star caliber reliever (if not expanding his role). From the start of 2022 through the time of the trade, Helsley pitched to a 2.03 ERA while striking out 32.9% of batters faced in 203 2/3 innings. He’s seventh in MLB with 103 saves over the past four seasons — despite not collecting any saves for a Mets team that already hadEdwin Díaz in the ninth inning.

Mooney doesn’t specify whether the Cubs’ interest in Helsley is as a starter or in relief. The Cubs need help in both areas, though they’ve already brought in his former St. Louis teammate Phil Maton on atwo-year deal. It’d make more sense for Chicago to pursue Helsley as a reliever and aim for an established rotation upgrade.Shota Imanaga is back after accepting a qualifying offer. He slots behind Cade Horton and alongsideMatthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and eventually Justin Steele in the rotation. Colin Rea and Javier Assad are in the mix at the back of the rotation or long relief. The Cubs need another starter, but they should be after someone who can pitch alongside Horton in the upper half of the rotation.

MLBTRpredicted Helsley to receive a two-year, $24MM contract. Woo writes that he has discussed multi-year arrangements with more than one team, so it seems he’s on track to at least command two years.

The Cubs’ first addition of the offseason will come in the bullpen, as Chicago has agreed to terms with right-handerPhil Maton on a two-year, $14.5MM contract with a club option for a third season. The Paragon Sports International client can pick up another $250K worth of incentives based on innings pitched in each of the two guaranteed seasons on the contract.

Maton split last season between the Cardinals and Rangers. He joined St. Louis on a one-year, $2MM deal and pitched well for the first half of the season. After 38 1/3 innings of a 2.35 ERA, the Cardinalsshipped him to Texas at the trade deadline for minor league pitchers Mason Molina and Skylar Hales. Maton’s ERA rose to 3.52 with his new team, but he upped his strikeout rate to 36.7% and picked up three saves over 23 appearances.

Chicago will be Maton’s eighth team in 10 big-league seasons. He was drafted by the Padres in 2015. Eye-popping strikeout numbers helped the righty zoom through San Diego’s system, and he reached the big leagues by 2017. Maton delivered decent contributions with the Padres in his first two seasons, though he missed time with a lat strain in 2018. After a half-season spent bouncing between the Padres and Triple-A El Paso the following year, Maton was dealt to Cleveland for cash.

Maton flashed the swing-and-miss upside he had shown in the minors for the first time at the big-league level with Cleveland. He posted a 33.3% strikeout rate across 23 games in the shortened 2020 season, then pushed it to 34.3% in the first half of 2021. Maton was on the move again at the 2021 trade deadline, heading withYainer Diazto Houston forMyles Straw. The deal turned out to be a big win for the Astros, even before factoring in Diaz’s contributions. Maton compiled a 3.67 ERA across 157 innings with Houston through 2023. He was phenomenal during the 2021 playoffs, allowing just one earned run in 12 games. Maton secured three holds in the postseason that year, including two in the World Series.

Maton hit the open market following the 2023 season and landed in Tampa Bay on a one-year, $6.5MM deal. He struggled with the Rays and ended up getting dealt to the Mets in early July. Maton put together 28 2/3 innings of a 2.51 ERA in New York, but stumbled in the postseason. The veteran was knocked around for six earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in the playoffs, including four home runs.

Velocity isn’t Maton’s strong suit, as his fastball barely cracks 90 mph. The veteran has found success by leading with his curveball and mixing in cutters and sinkers. Maton has used the hook as his primary pitch in two of the last three seasons. He threw it 38.2% of the time last year, and it recorded a healthy +10 run value. Maton’s cutter, curveball, and sweeper all had whiff rates above 32% last season.

Maton has excelled at limiting hard contact at every stop. He’s limited hitters to a 29.9% hard-hit rate for his career. Maton ranked in the 98th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity last season.

WithBrad Kellerhitting free agency andAndrew Kittredgetraded to Baltimore, Chicago had a clear need for a righty at the backend of the bullpen.Daniel Palencia will likely resume closer duties after battling injuries at the end of last season, but Maton should factor into the late-inning mix alongsidePorter Hodge.FanGraphs’ RosterResource tool has the Cubs’ payroll at around $177MM for 2026. The club has been above $200MM the past two seasons, so there could be more room to add in the bullpen.Luke LittleandJordan Wicksdon’t have a ton of big-league experience between them, so pursuing a veteran southpaw might make sense.

Bleacher Nation’s Michael Ceramifirst reported that Maton was signing with the Cubs. Will Sammon of The Athleticreported the length of the deal, and the New York Post’s Jon Heymanfirst broke the financial terms.

Every National League team has officially announced their non-tender decisions. It was a quiet evening in terms of subtractions, with only the Rangers parting with any marquee players. All players who were non-tendered are free agents without going on waivers. A few teams dropped pre-arbitration players from the back of the 40-man roster. It’s possible they preferred not to expose them to waivers and are hopeful of re-signing them to non-roster deals.

Here’s a full list of today’s activity in the NL, while the American League movesare available here. All projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

• The Braves announced that right-handersAlek Manoah andCarson Ragsdale were not tendered contracts. Both had been acquired earlier in the offseason via waivers, and both are now free agents. Manoah was projected to earn $2.2MM. Ragsdale was not arb-eligible.
• The Brewers tendered contracts to their entire arbitration class,per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
• The Cardinals chose not to tender contracts to leftyJohn King, catcherYohel Pozo and rightySem Robberse, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatchreports.Jorge Alcala, who was designated for assignment earlier this week, was also non-tendered, John Denton of MLB.comadds. King and Alcala were both projected for a $2.1MM salary. The others were not arb-eligible.
• The Cubs non-tendered catcherReese McGuire,per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. He hit .226/.245/.444 through 140 plate appearances in a backup catcher role and was arb-eligible for the final time. He’d been projected to earn $1.9MM. Right-handerEli Morgan, who was projected to earn $1.1MM, was also non-tendered,according to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.
• The D-backs non-tendered left-handerTommy Henry, who’d already been designated for assignment, and right-handerTaylor Rashi. Neither was eligible for arbitration. They tendered contracts to their entire arb class.
• The Dodgers did not tender a contract to closerEvan Phillips,reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. He was only under club control for one more season and projected for a $6.1MM salary but underwentTommy John surgery in June. Dodgers rightyNick Frasso, who was not arb-eligible and finished the season on the 60-day IL, was also non-tendered,per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic.
• The Giants non-tendered left-handerJoey Lucchesi,reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Lucchesi pitched to a solid 3.76 ERA with a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate and strong 7.3% walk rate in 38 1/3 innings and had been projected for a $2MM salary. San Francisco also non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, who was designated for assignment this afternoon when the Giants acquired Joey Wiemer from Miami.
• The Marlins tendered contracts to all of their eligible players,per Isaac Azout of Fish On First.
• TheMets are non-tendering right-handerMax Kranick, according toWill Sammon of The Athletic. Kranick, 28, posted a 3.65 ERA in 37 innings with the Mets this year. It was his first big league opportunity since a five-inning cameo with the Pirates back in 2022. Kranick’s season came to an abrupt end back in July due to flexor tendon repair surgery. SouthpawsJose Castillo andDanny Young were also non-tendered,Sammon adds. Young had Tommy John surgery back in May. Castillo was a waiver claim who pitched for four different teams in 2025.
• The Nationals tendered contracts to their entire roster, per a team announcement.
• ThePadresannounced that leftyOmar Cruz and rightySean Reynolds were non-tendered. Neither was arbitration-eligible. They tendered contracts to every member of their arbitration class.
• The Phillies non-tendered rightiesMichael Mercado andDaniel Robert, neither of whom was arbitration-eligible. They’re both free agents. The Phils tendered contracts to all of their arb-eligible players otherwise.
• The Pirates non-tendered outfieldersAlexander Canario andRonny Simon, as well as rightiesColin Holderman andDauri Moreta. All four were designated for assignment earlier in the week. Holderman was projected for a $1.7MM salary and Moreta for $800K. The others weren’t arb-eligible.
• The Reds announced that catcherWill Banfield and right-handersCarson Spiers andRoddery Munoz were not tendered contracts. They’re all free agents. None of the three were arbitration-eligible, but by non-tendering them rather than designating them for assignment, Cincinnati bypasses the need to place them on waivers and can try to quickly re-sign any of the bunch to minor league deals, if the Reds are so inclined.
• The Rockies non-tendered first basemanMichael Toglia, the team announced. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week, making today’s non-tender all but a formality.

We’re still in the nascent stages of the MLB offseason, with only a handful of notable free-agent signings and trades thus far. Still, with the GM Meetings now in the rearview mirror, teams have laid a fair bit of groundwork for the weeks and months ahead, both on the free agent and trade markets.Kyle Tucker stands as the offseason’s top free agent, and while there’s no indication he’s close to signing, there are also some hints falling into place about his potential market.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that some rival teams feel the Blue Jays are the likeliest landing spot for the four-time All-Star. They’ve been a popular speculative pick early on after a deep World Series run and with only one other major long-term commitment (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) on the books. Of course,Bo Bichette could be the priority, and it’s rare for any team to sign two free agents of that magnitude in a single offseason.

Tucker is a prominent enough star that some unexpected suitors figure to jump into the fray.Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that while the Orioles are prioritizing pitching this winter, they haven’t ruled out a run at Tucker. Having already acquiredTaylor Ward from the Angels, the addition of Tucker would free Baltimore to dangle young outfieldersColton Cowser andDylan Beavers on the trade market in hopes of securing some controllable arms. There are quite a few pitchers of notewho could be on the block this winter, and both Cowser and Beavers would intrigue clubs looking to move arms. Both are former first-round picks. Cowser has four more seasons of club control, while Beavers only debuted late in 2025 and thus has a full slate of six years of club control remaining.

Baltimore stands as a fascinating fit. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Tucker was selected with the No. 5 overall pick. The O’s don’t have anything on the books long-term, other thanSamuel Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM extension. That $8.375MM annual value isn’t going to be stand in the way of any other long-term deals. Beyond Basallo,Tyler O’Neill is the only other player signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the 2026 season. His three-year, $49.5MM contract runs through 2027.

The Orioles’ long-term financial outlook is so clean that there’s no true impediment to them signing Tucker and a notable a free agent starter. That’s not to say such a scenario is likely, of course, but Baltimore’s 2026 payroll currently projects for about $105MM,per RosterResource, and that’s before potential non-tenders or trades ofRyan Mountcastle ($7.8MMprojected salary),Keegan Akin ($3MM projection),Yennier Cano ($1.8MM projection) and/orAlex Jackson ($1.8MM projection) prior to tomorrow’s 5pm ET non-tender deadline.

Depending on what happens with the Orioles’ arbitration class, they could realistically see next year’s projected payroll drop into the $93-100MM range by tomorrow evening. The opened the 2025 season with a payroll around $164.5MM. We’re certainly not accustomed to seeing Baltimore spend like this, but this is also only the second offseason under new owner David Rubenstein. Elias has already publicly stated that he is “fully prepared” to sacrifice draft picks by signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers, and for all the focus on pitching, it was reported more than a month ago that theO’s also covet an impact bat — likely in the outfield.

None of this is intended to frame the Orioles as any sort of favorite to sign Tucker, to be clear. Far from it. However, the fit and logic behind it are probably more sensible than one might think at first glance.

Other clubs will still loom in the market. Passan cites the Phillies as a possible landing spot, shouldKyle Schwarber sign elsewhere. The Yankees have been linked to both Tucker and aCody Bellinger reunion. GM Brian Cashman indicated this week thatTrent Grisham’s decision to accept his qualifying offer will not impact the team’s pursuit of Bellinger. Presumably, then, that thinking extends to Tucker as well. The Dodgers have also been linked to Tucker, though Passan doubles down on his prior reporting that their interest would “likely” be on a shorter-term but high-AAV deal — the type we rarely see taken by the consensus top free agent in a given offseason.

The Cubs announced that they have selected infieldersJames Triantos andPedro Ramírez as well as left-handerRiley Martin. Those three are now protected from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft. The club’s 40-man roster count is now at 32.

Triantos, a second-rounder out of high school in 2021, has been one of the more promising pure hitters in the system for the past few seasons. His stock is down after a poor season with Triple-A Iowa. Triantos only managed a .259/.315/.370 slash over 480 trips to the plate. He continued to put the ball in play at a high rate but without much authoritative contact. He hit seven homers and posted well below-average exit velocities. Triantos stole 31 bases while bouncing between second base and the outfield, so perhaps he can factor in as a utility piece in 2026.

Ramírez, a 21-year-old infielder out of Venezuela, is now the superior prospect in the eyes ofBaseball America. He’s the only member of this trio to crack Chicago’s top 10 prospects on their recent update of the system. He’s a switch-hitting second/third baseman who batted .280/.346/.386 while stealing 28 bags in 563 plate appearances at Double-A Tennessee this year. Ramírez is also light on power but has excellent contact skills. He’ll probably get the bump to Iowa to begin 2026.

Martin is an Illinois native who was a sixth-rounder in 2021 out of Division II Quincy University. The 6’1″ southpaw has spent the past two seasons pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A. He fired 63 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball with a near-31% strikeout rate over 47 appearances. Martin struggles with walks and dished out free passes at a 13.4% clip. He works with a 94 MPH fastball and uses a mid-80s curveball as his favored secondary pitch.

The deadline to accept the qualifying offer has passed. Four players —Trent Grisham,Gleyber Torres,Brandon Woodruff, andShota Imanaga — chose to accept the one-year, $22.025MM deal and remain with their current clubs. The remaining nine players rejected the deal. They are: Cubs outfielderKyle Tucker, Phillies DHKyle Schwarber, Blue Jays infielderBo Bichette, Astros leftyFramber Valdez, Padres rightyDylan Cease, Phillies leftyRanger Suarez, Mets closerEdwin Diaz, Diamondbacks rightyZac Gallen, and Padres rightyMichael King. All nine are now free agents.

There’s not much surprise in any of the nine players who rejected. Tucker, Schwarber, Bichette, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz were all locks. Gallen may have given some brief thought to accepting after a rough showing in 2025, but he finished strong and has a track record as a high-end starter who’s garnered multiple top-five finishes in NL Cy Young balloting. King was hobbled by nerve and knee injuries in an odd season but was dominant in 2023-24 and through the first two months of the current season. He was healthy late in the year and fanned three in his lone inning of postseason work. He’ll test the waters in search of a multi-year deal as well.

Now that this nonet has rejected qualifying offers, they’ll all be subject to draft compensation. Interested teams will need to surrender a draft pick (or multiple picks) and, in some cases, space from their bonus pool for international amateurs in order to sign any of this group. The extent of that draft compensation depends on the revenue-sharing and luxury tax status of the new team. MLBTRbroke down which pick(s) each club would forfeit by signing a “qualified” free agent last month.

Similarly, the compensation for each player’s former club is dependent on revenue-sharing and luxury tax status — as well as the size of the contract signed by the player in question. MLBTR also ran through thecompensation each team would receive if their qualified free agents turned down the offer and signed elsewhere.

Shota Imanaga will be returning to the Cubs, asThe Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports that the left-hander has accepted the team’s one-year, $22.025MM qualifying offer.  The surprising decision means that Imanaga stays put after his time in Wrigleyville seemed to be over, following a series of declined contract options on the part of the Cubs and Imanaga himself.

The four-year, $53MM deal that Imanaga signed with Chicago in January 2024 guaranteed Imanaga $23MM over the first two seasons, and this offseason presented both sides with decisions.  The Cubs had to decide whether or not to exercise a three-year option on Imanaga’s services that would’ve paid him $57.75MM over the 2026-28 seasons, and the teamdecided to decline.  Imanaga then had a $15.25MM player option for just 2026 that he also declined, even though exercising that option would’ve then created a $42.5MM club option for the Cubs for next winter covering the 2027-28 seasons that (if declined) would’ve created a $15.25MM player option for Imanaga for 2027.

The Cubs issued Imanaga the qualifying offer to ensure some compensation if Imanaga signed elsewhere, yet as it turned out, Imanaga will indeed take a one-year pact to remain, with roughly $7MM added beyond the price of his player option.  He would’ve locked in at least $30.5MM for himself by exercising his player option and generating that other player option for next winter, so he is currently leaving $8.475MM on the table given how this rather complicated situation turned out.

A 2026 season more in line with Imanaga’s impressive 2024 rookie campaign will easily land a multi-year contract worth far more than $8.475MM next winter, even though the lefty turns 33 in September.  He’ll be able to re-enter next year’s free agent market without the QO compensation attached to his services.  This removes one obstacle for Imanaga in free agency next winter, but more consistency on the mound will be the deciding factor.

Imanaga posted a 3.73 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.6% walk rate over 144 2/3 innings for Chicago this season.  Apart from his great control and the solid bottom-line ERA, the rest of Imanaga’s peripherals were almost all well below the league average.  The problems included a lot of hard and high-impact contact, as only three pitchers allowed more home runs than Imanaga’s 31 big flies in 2025.

A hamstring strain cost Imanaga most of May and June, but he still managed a 2.40 ERA over his first 75 innings of the year before things started to turn in the second half.  Twenty of Imanaga’s 31 home runs allowed came during his last 69 2/3 innings of the season, resulting in a 5.17 ERA.  Things didn’t get any better in the playoffs, as the southpaw posted an 8.10 ERA and gave up three more homers in 6 2/3 frames of postseason work.

These issues with the long ball were also apparent in Imanaga’s 2024 season, if not to the same extreme level.  He also allowed less hard contact and had a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, while delivering a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 innings.  This excellent debut season earned Imanaga a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting, a fifth-place finish in Cy Young Award voting, and his first All-Star nod.

Given how well Imanaga was seemingly adjusting to the big leagues over his first season and a half, it seemed like a lock that the Cubs were going to exercise their options to keep Imanaga in the fold through 2028.  However, his rough finish to the season seemingly changed the Cubs’ mind about such a substantial commitment.

Likewise, Imanaga and his reps at Octagon could’ve been concerned over how the market would react to his homer-heavy final 69 2/3 innings.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Imanaga 22nd on our list ofthe offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a three-year, $45MM deal, but Imanaga and his reps at Octagon might have viewed the qualifying offer as an impediment to an acceptable contract.  If Imanaga was going to have to settle for a short-term “prove it” type of deal anyway, accepting the QO allows him to aim for a bounce-back season in a familiar environment, and for a bigger one-year average annual value.

Returning to the Cubs also allows Imanaga to play for a team that should again be playoff contenders.  Starting pitching should still continue to be a need for Chicago even with Imanaga back, but at least one box has now been checked off of the team’s rotation plans.  Imanaga joinsMatthew Boyd,Cade Horton,Jameson Taillon, andColin Rea in the projected starting five, withJustin Steele theoretically able to return froma UCL revision surgery relatively early in the 2026 campaign. Javier Assad andBen Brown are also on hand, but the Cubs will want to bolster this group with at least one more reliable starter, given how the team didn’t trust its depth (including Imanaga) during the postseason.

Inset photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski — Imagn Images

The Cubs are in the market for notable rotation upgrades this offseason, and right-handerMichael King is among the names on their radar,per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. Mooney and Sharma also double down on the Cubs’ previously reported interest inDylan Cease, noting that the Cubs are willing to forfeit the requisite draft pick and international funds to sign a player who has rejected a qualifying offer (which both Cease and King received from the Padres).

King, 31 next May, has had an atypical arc over the past few seasons. A swingman and multi-inning reliever for several years in the Bronx, he moved into the Yankees’ rotation late in the 2023 season and posted brilliant results in nine starts down the stretch. New York shipped him to San Diego as part of theJuan Soto blockbuster of the 2023-24 offseason, and King subsequently broke out as one of the top starters in MLB, starting 30 games for the Friars and turning in a 2.95 ERA with a hearty 27.7% strikeout rate against a solid 8.7% walk rate.

It was more of the same early in 2025. King sprinted out of the gates with a 2.59 ERA and even better rate stats (28.4 K%, 7.6 BB%) in his first 10 starts. By late May, he’d claimed the No. 6 spoton our Free Agent Power Rankings here at MLBTR. A nine-figure free agent deal seemed all but certain — provided King stayed healthy.

That proved to be a major caveat. The Padres placed King on the 15-day IL in late May with what was originally termed inflammation in his right shoulder. San Diego later called it a pinched nerve in his shoulder, but it wasn’t expected to be a prominent injury … at least not at first. King, however, wound up spending nearly three months on the shelf. In late June, Kingpublicly voiced frustration with the injury, noting that there were days where he was in significant discomfort and could barely muster any baseball activity — and that he’d wake up a day later feeling close to 100% and ready to go.

King finally returned the mound in early August, giving the Padres hope that he’d be back atop their rotation down the stretch. His return lasted all of two innings, however — but not due to his previously problematic shoulder. Rather, King landed back on the 15-day IL due to a left knee issue that popped up in his return effort. An MRI revealed no structural damage, and King hoped to be back after a minimal stint but still wound up sidelined for another month.

King returned for good in early September, but his results in four starts were rocky. He pitched just 15 2/3 innings and yielded 10 runs on 18 hits (including six homers) with an 11-to-7 K/BB ratio. Brilliant as his start to the season was, King pitched a total of 17 2/3 innings with a 6.11 ERA following May 18. He made one appearance with San Diego in the postseason, pitching one inning of relief — and striking out the side in a perfect frame.

There’s little doubting that King is among the most talented arms in the sport, but his platform year before free agency finished with more of a whimper than a roar. The Padres seemingly don’t have any qualms about his health. They issued him a $22.025MM qualifying offer despite having minimal payroll flexibility this winter. San Diego would presumably be thrilled to have King back, given the need in their rotation, but they’re reportedly aiming for a similar payroll to 2025 and King accepting the QO would put them about $10MM over where they sat in ’25. If the Padres had major concerns about his shoulder and/or knee, they likely wouldn’t have risked the QO — particularly since their compensation for him signing elsewhere will only be a pick after the fourth round (rather than after the first) due to their status as a luxury tax payor.

King isn’t necessarily the sole focus of the Cubs’ hunt for rotation upgrades (nor is Cease). The Athletic duo note that Chicago has some interest in star NPB rightyTatsuya Imai and they could rekindle last offseason’s trade talks with the Marlins about their starting pitchers. Imai will be posted for major league teams next week. Marlins aceSandy Alcantara is signed through 2026 with a club option for 2027, while 27-year-old rightyEdward Cabrera is controlled via arbitration through 2028. It’s still possible that leftyShota Imanaga returns, whether via accepting his own QO orperhaps working out a new two-year deal.

The Cubs currently project for a payroll of about $158MM,per RosterResource, which sits around $50MM shy of their end-of-season levels in 2025. They’re nowhere close to the luxury tax, currently sitting close to $75MM shy of next year’s $244MM first-tier threshold. ShortstopDansby Swanson is currently the only Cubs player who’s guaranteed anything beyond the 2026 season. His seven-year, $177MM contract runs through 2029. There’s quite literally no free agent the deep-pocketed Cubs can’t afford to pursue, so the only limitations on their winter additions will be self-imposed if the bidding reaches a point that’s too far beyond the comfort zone of either the front office or owner Tom Ricketts.

The Cubs are headed into this offseason prioritizing pitching additions, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (includingRobert Murray of FanSided) yesterday. Hoyer noted that the club already has“a lot of position players,” which will lead them to prioritize giving a boost to both the rotation and bullpen.

It’s not necessarily a shocking update. While star outfielderKyle Tucker’s free agency leaves a hole in the middle of Chicago’s lineup, it’s long seemed as though he was likely to end up elsewhere upon reaching free agency given the Cubs’ hesitance when it comes to giving out top-of-the-market contracts.Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract signed back during the 2015-2016 offseason remains the largest deal in Cubs history, and Tucker is expected to at least double that figure. While Hoyer told Murray that he’ll“be talking to” Tucker’s representation and was effusive in his praise of the four-time All-Star, a focus on pitching makes more sense given that hesitance to spend at the top of the market and Chicago’s roster outlook.

The Cubs already have everyday players locked into the majority of the spots on their roster.Nico Hoerner andDansby Swanson are one of the league’s top middle infield duos,Ian Happ is the franchise’s longest-tenured player who just earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove in left field, whileMichael Busch andPete Crow-Armstrong have cemented themselves as core pieces at first base and in center field.Seiya Suzuki is also sure to be in the lineup on an everyday basis, whether that’s in right field or as the team’s DH. Things seem more or less settled behind the plate as well after a career year forCarson Kelly, withMiguel Amaya andReese McGuire both in the fold to help back up the veteran as well.

If the Cubs were going to make an addition to the lineup, adding a corner outfielder or DH (wherever Suzuki isn’t playing) or a third baseman would make the most sense. Even then, however, the Cubs have a group of up-and-coming young position players who could get full-season looks next year likeMatt Shaw,Owen Caissie,Moises Ballesteros, andKevin Alcantara. Shaw’s 93 wRC+ in 126 games last year, including a 130 wRC+ after the All-Star break, makes it easy to justify giving him runway at the hot corner next year. While none of Caissie, Ballesteros, or Alcantara has received substantial playing time in the majors yet, between the three of them it’s not unreasonable for Chicago to think they could mostly handle one spot in the lineup.

By contrast, the pitching staff clearly needs work.Shota Imanaga is now a free agent, and withJustin Steele’s return date uncertain coming off Tommy John surgery the only pitchers locked into rotation spots for Opening Day next year are mid-rotation veteransMatthew Boyd andJameson Taillon as well as Rookie of the Year runner-upCade Horton. Even among that group, there’s some red flags. Boyd has a lengthy injury history and only just enjoyed his first healthy season since 2019. Horton ended the season on the injured list and missed nearly all of 2024 due to a shoulder strain. Taillon missed around two months due to calf and groin issues. While players likeColin Rea andJavier Assad are viable starters in their own right, they’re best served as swing options.

That leaves room for a rotation addition or two, and there’s plenty of interesting arms who could make an impact for the Cubs this winter.Dylan Cease andFramber Valdez might price themselves out of the Cubs’ comfort zone, but either would still be far less expensive than Tucker. Chicago has done well courting NPB talent in the past, so perhaps right-handerTatsuya Imai could be a fit.Ranger Suarez,Michael King,Brandon Woodruff, andZac Gallen are among the many names who the Cubs could look to bring into the fold.

That doesn’t mean a reunion with Imanaga can be ruled out, however. The Cubs extended the southpaw a qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason last week, and he’ll need to decide in the coming days whether or not to accept that one-year, $22.05MM offer.Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Imanaga is expected to decline that offer, but that wouldn’t necessarily rule out a return even if he does so.Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that the sides could look to reunite on a two-year deal this winter, which could come either before or after the QO deadline next week.

Reuniting with Imanaga would be a gamble, given the uncertain nature of Wrigley Field’s park factors and Imanaga’s struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Even so, however, it’s at least plausible that being attached to draft pick compensation dampens Imanaga’s market enough that a return to the Cubs makes sense for him. Chicago seems unlikely to participate in a bidding war for his services after declining a three-year, $54MM option on his services at the outset of the offseason, but if Imanaga were considering accepting the QO a two-year deal could theoretically allow the Cubs to lower the hit they’ll face for luxury tax purposes while also creating some additional security for Imanaga.

As for the bullpen, the Cubs are in need of reinforcements there most of all.Brad Keller,Drew Pomeranz,Caleb Thielbar, andAndrew Kittredge were all key high leverage arms for the team this season but are no longer with the club; the former three are free agents, while the latter was traded to Baltimore to avoid the buyout on his club option. That leaves Chicago with little certainty in the bullpen outside ofDaniel Palencia, butreporting has suggested they won’t be very involved on top free agent relief arms likeEdwin Diaz andDevin Williams. That still leaves a number of interesting veterans who could be had a one- or two-year deals, however, likeKenley Jansen andPete Fairbanks.