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Anthony Franco

• Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed your weekend!
• Different schedule with the holiday so I'll have to keep this one around an hour

RoxTalks

• When Arenado gets into Cooperstown, does he go in as a Rockie, or is there too much bad blood there? Thanks!

Anthony Franco

• Agree he's a Hall of Famer, and yes, pretty clearly a Rockie for me
• Could argue his best season was with St. Louis in '22 but majority of his career was in Colorado, including five of the six top 10 MVP finishes. Second or third best player in franchise history for the Rox

Guest

• Over Under 93.5 Mets wins, and what is the X-factor

Anthony Franco

• I'll go under but not dramatically so. If I have to pick one x-factor, it's McLean
• Confident they're going to hit. Bullpen isn't elite but should be solid enough. Rotation's the highest variance but obviously looks much stronger if McLean is immediately a #2 starter

Joe from Milwaukee

• Do you think the Brewers make an effort to extend Contreras? They seem a lot more willing to give big money to their position players historically and he's one of the best catchers in baseball. Also, the Yelich money is gone after 2028 anyway.

Anthony Franco

• Pretty far outside their usual spending habits at this stage of a player's career. Quero's hanging around as a potential long-term answer as long as the throwing drop-off isn't permanent. Eventual trade of Contreras seems more probable

el jefe

• After a busy week (Andujar, Castellanos, France, Canning, Marquez), how much have the Padres improved?

  Thoughts on the Preller extension?

Anthony Franco

• Probably added two wins between all those moves? Not bad for the cost. Canning's my favorite of them but they're all sensible since rotation depth and the bench were the biggest issues and not that difficult to address for cheap
• France would've been overkill on an MLB deal. For a minor league deal, sure. Decent chance he just doesn't break camp and opts out at the end of Spring Training
• We'll see how long the Preller extension runs but makes sense to keep him around. Much as the approach can be shortsighted at times, especially with the free agent spending toward the end of Peter Seidler's ownership, they continue to trot out top 5-10 teams that are also far more exciting than virtually any Padres teams from before Preller was hired

Ms fan

• Are teams generally staying away from promoting their top prospects to AAA now? Seems like you get a lot more guys going straight from AA to the majors.

Anthony Franco

• Yeah it seems like this is happening more often. The Prospect Promotion Incentive rules are part of it. There's also just less to be gleaned from Triple-A from an evaluation perspective
• The Pacific Coast League, in particular, is so hitter-friendly that the stats there don't mean much. The pitcher quality at Triple-A continues to drop as injuries at the MLB level rise and force teams to call up more of their depth arms. There's also more of a tendency for the interesting Quad-A pitchers to move to Asia rather than sticking around in Triple-A because they can see the earning potential if they have success overseas

Guards4Life

• Is Kwan open to an extension or is he gone? Haven't heard much from his camp.
• 

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The Diamondbacks have re-signedZac Gallen on a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client technically receives a $22.025MM guarantee that matches the value of the qualifying offer which he declined in November. However, a reported $14.025MM will be deferred via three $4.675MM installments paid between 2032-34. That means the D-Backs will only pay $8MM, one-third of the contract, this year. Gallen’s luxury tax number is $18.7MM when factoring in the deferred money.Corbin Burnes was placed on the 60-day injured list as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery in order to make room for Gallen on the 40-man roster.

Gallen is coming off a down year that clearly sapped a lot of his appeal on the open market. He entered the season as a strong candidate to command upwards of $100MM once he hit free agency. Gallen stayed healthy and took all 33 turns through the rotation, but he had the worst rate stats of his career. He turned in a personal-high 4.83 earned run average with a career-worst 21.5% strikeout rate.

The season started especially poorly, as Gallen allowed at least five earned runs per nine innings in each of the first four months. He took a 5.40 ERA into the All-Star Break and had a 5.60 mark across 127 innings at the trade deadline. The D-Backs were aggressive sellers, moving Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller. They didn’t find an offer they liked on Gallen more than the draft pick they’d collect if he signed elsewhere after rejecting the qualifying offer.

Arizona reportedly was concerned about overworking young pitchers down the stretch, so they got some benefit out of holding Gallen for the innings alone. He performed better after the deadline, tossing quality starts in eight of his last 11 outings. The 30-year-old turned in a 3.32 ERA over his final 65 innings. The Diamondbacks went 7-4 in those games, part of the reason they were able to hang in the Wild Card picture until the final weekend despite the July selloff.

While it was an encouraging last couple months, it wasn’t exactly a return to peak form. Gallen only struck out 20% of opponents during that stretch. He was helped a lot by a .232 average on balls in play. Gallen had struck out between 25-29% of opponents in each of his first five-plus MLB seasons. The swing-and-miss drop wasn’t quite so extreme on a per-pitch basis, but last year’s 9.5% swinging strike rate was the second-lowest mark of his career.

There weren’t any dramatic changes to Gallen’s raw stuff. His fastball averaged 93.5 mph, right in line with his career mark. That’s essentially league average for a right-handed starting pitcher. Opponents have had increasing success against Gallen’s heater over the past couple seasons. He managed decent results on his knuckle-curve and changeup, his top two secondary offerings. He sporadically mixed a cutter, slider and sinker — all of which were hit hard.

It remains to be seen if they’ll make any changes to his arsenal going into 2026. Gallen began to scale back his four-seam fastball usage in the final few months last season, largely in favor of more changeups. In any case, the team probably feels he deserved a little better than a near-5.00 ERA would suggest. Statcast’s “expected” ERA, which is based on his strikeout/walk profile and the batted balls he allows, landed at 4.28. His 4.24 SIERA was in a similar range. A positive regression toward those metrics would make him a league average starter.

This is an ideal outcome for the Diamondbacks. They were willing to pay an upfront $22.025MM salary to retain Gallen in November. His decision to decline the QO may very well have opened the payroll room to bring Kelly back on a two-year, $40MM free agent deal. Team personnel maintained throughout the offseason that they’d like to retain Gallen if they could make it work financially.

Owner Ken Kendrick raved about Gallen as far back as September. “He’s a special young man who spent nearly seven years as a D-Back. He definitely had an up-and-down season — performed better in the later part of the year, certainly, than earlier in the year. … He’s loved being a Diamondback,” Kendrick said at the time. “I don’t want to say it’s out of the touch of reality that we’d work out an arrangement to bring him back. He’s been a great D-Back. Last I recall, he was the guy who pitched seven or eight innings of no-hit ball in a World Series game for the Arizona Diamondbacks. … He’s the guy you want to root for.”

Just this week, manager Torey Lovullo said the clubhouse would “would welcome him with open arms, certainly” if they could get a deal done. Now that it has come to pass, he’ll slot alongside Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt in the projected rotation. That could push free agent pickup Michael Soroka into a long relief role unless they decide to run a six-man rotation. They’re without a true ace until Corbin Burnes makes it back from Tommy John surgery; he’s aiming for some time around the All-Star Break. There’s far more stability than they had at the beginning of the winter, allowing them to take their time in deciding when to bring up prospects like Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, both of whom they acquired from Texas in the Kelly trade.

Penciling in a $22.025MM salary for Gallen would bring Arizona’s payroll projection to roughly $194MM, as calculated byRosterResource. That’d technically be right in line with last year’s $195MM season-opening mark, which Kendrick said at the beginning of the winter that the team wouldn’t match. However, they’re reportedly only on the hook for around $8MM in salary payments this year, so the D-Backs didn’t need to dramatically stretch the budget after waiting out the offseason.

The Diamondbacks don’t forfeit any of their existing draft choices to re-sign their own qualified free agent. Any other team would have punted at least one draft choice and potentially international signing bonus pool space to sign him. They are indirectly losing a pick by forfeiting the right to compensation.

That selection would have come after the first round in 2026 if Gallen had signed elsewhere for at least $50MM. That seemed a distinct possibility early in the offseason but almost certainly wasn’t happening in the middle of February. It’s more likely that they’re passing on a compensation pick that would have landed 73rd or 74th overall, which they receive if he’d walked for less than $50MM. That’s not a huge cost compared to bringing back a potential mid-rotation starter on a favorable deal.

Although the team must be happy with the outcome, it’s undoubtedly not what Gallen envisioned for his first trip to free agency.Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests he declined multi-year offers from other teams because he preferred to remain with the Diamondbacks. That doesn’t mean that the market didn’t materialize as hoped. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. It seems clear in retrospect that teams weren’t willing to go to those lengths given Gallen’s disappointing platform year.

Even if staying in Arizona was his first choice all along, he’s coming out quite a bit worse than if he’d accepted the qualifying offer. He’ll receive the same amount of money in the long run, but the true value of the deferred money is worth less than if he’d collected it all in 2026, as evidenced by the lower luxury tax number. That probably doesn’t mean much for the team — they would’ve been more than $20MM away from the CBT threshold in either case — but illustrates that there’s a significant gap between the QO and this contract.

Gallen did at least agree to terms within a couple days of camps opening. He’ll report to the team by the beginning of full squad workouts and should have plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day. One can imagine he didn’t want to wait until close to the regular season, as former teammateJordan Montgomery did in 2024. Montgomery was very critical of how Boras had managed negotiations and switched agencies within two weeks of signing with the D-Backs. The lefty pitched poorly in ’24, then underwent Tommy John surgery last spring. He signed a $1.25MM deal with Texas this week and wound up making $48.75MM over three seasons from 2024-26.

There’s certainly a world where things work out well for Gallen in the long run. He’ll return to the open market at age 31 without being weighed down by draft compensation. A player can only receive the qualifying offer once in his career. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table if he rebounds to the form he showed in 2022-24: a 3.20 ERA and 26% strikeout rate over 93 starts. Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso and Matt Chapman are all Boras clients who found disappointing markets in one offseason and went on to much more lucrative contracts after bounce back performances.

Time will tell if Gallen can follow the same path. His immediate focus will be on trying to get Arizona to a playoff berth in an annually difficult NL West. Gallen was the last unsigned qualified free agent and arguably the last potential impact player available. Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, Zack Littell andGriffin Canning headline a dwindling free agent class.

Steve Gilbert of MLB.com first reported the D-Backs were nearing a deal with Gallen.Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reported it was a one-year contract.Ken Rosenthal ofThe Athletic reported it was a $22.025MM guarantee with roughly $14MM in deferrals. Rosenthal reported Gallen’s luxury tax number. Ronald Blum of The Associated Press reported the deferral structure.

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images.

Much of the focus in Mariners camp will be on the infield. Seattle’s biggest offseason moves — re-signingJosh Naylor and trading forBrendan Donovan — addressed two spots. They lost a couple infielders, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez, to free agency. It’s the biggest area of turnover on what might be the American League’s best roster.

Naylor and J.P. Crawford are locked into first base and shortstop, respectively. Donovan will be an everyday player. He’s a solid defender at second base and can handle the corner outfield as well, though his below-average speed means he fits better on the infield.Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times writes that Donovan’s early work with infield coach Perry Hill has come at third base.

That’s the simplest solution in the short term. Suárez andBen Williamson, who was traded to Tampa Bay in the three-team Donovan deal, took the majority of the playing time last season. Of the five players who started games at third base in 2025, onlyMiles Mastrobuoni remains in the organization. Donovan didn’t get any work at the hot corner last year but logged 269 2/3 innings there between 2022-24. Although defensive grades aren’t especially meaningful in that small a sample, he has above-average marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Donovan’s primary role will largely be determined by the progress of younger players around him. Cole Young had a brutal finish to his rookie season, but he remains the favorite to start at second base. Young is a former first-round pick who hit .279/.388/.432 in the minors and is entering his age-22 season. He remains a very promising young player even though he’s not technically a prospect anymore.

20-year-old shortstopColt Emerson is even more highly regarded. The 2023 first-round pick combined for a .285/.383/.458 batting line with 16 homers and 14 steals over 600 plate appearances across three minor league levels. Emerson walked at a near-12% clip while striking out less than 18% of the time. He spent the majority of the season in High-A but ripped through Double-A to earn a late-season cameo at Triple-A Tacoma. He played six games there in the final week of the regular season.

Emerson is a consensus top 10 overall prospect atBaseball America,The Athletic,ESPN andMLB Pipeline. The likeliest outcome is that he opens the season at Tacoma with an eye towards a midseason promotion. It’d be a surprise if Emerson breaks camp, but the Mariners aren’t completely closing the door on that as Spring Training opens. “It’s not out of the question that he earns a spot on the team,” president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters on Thursday (link viaDaniel Kramer of MLB.com). Dipoto praised Emerson’s well-rounded skillset and maturity.

The probable Opening Day infield lines up as Naylor, Young, Crawford and Donovan from right to left. Emerson could get consistent reps against Triple-A pitching while building reps at third base, where he has 111 1/3 innings of professional experience. He’s the heir apparent at shortstop when Crawford hits free agency next winter but presumably wouldn’t push the veteran off the position this year. If Emerson has a monster Spring Training that forces the club’s hand, Donovan could kick back to second base and potentially move Young to Triple-A. That shouldn’t be an issue even if Donovan doesn’t play any second base during Spring Training given his ample work at the position.

Last year’s season-opening second baseman, Ryan Bliss, hasn’t gotten as much public attention. Bliss is older and not nearly as highly regarded as Young and Emerson, so that’s natural, but he’s a former second-round pick who hit .269/.377/.456 with 12 homers and 50 stolen bases in Triple-A in 2024. He unfortunately didn’t get much of an opportunity to solidify himself at the MLB level.

Bliss ruptured his left biceps on a swing two weeks into the regular season. He underwent surgery that came with a 4-5 month rehab timeline. Bliss returned to minor league game action in September and had an impressive week in Triple-A. He may well have reclaimed the second base job from Young to close the regular season had he not sustained a meniscus tear in his right knee that required season-ending surgery. Kramer writes that Bliss is back to full health this spring.

It’s a deep infield that’ll only become more crowded whenever Emerson earns the call. Bliss has a couple minor league options remaining. Leo Rivas also has an option but reached base at a .387 clip in 111 plate appearances last season and made the team’s playoff rosters. They flip-flopped Mastrobuoni andLuke Raley as the last hitter off the bench in October.

They’re both out of options, and it’s difficult to see Seattle carrying both players into the season if all their hitters get through camp healthy. They’ll need bench spots for backup catcherAndrew Knizner and righty platoon bat Rob Refsnyder. Keeping Mastrobuoni and Raley would require them to option both Bliss and Rivas before even considering an Emerson promotion. Dipoto acknowledged the likelihood that someone gets squeezed out at the end of Spring Training, conceding the front office may “have to make some uncomfortable short-term decisions.”

The Twins brought back reliever Cody Laweryson after he was released by the Angels last week.Matthew Leach of MLB.com first noted that the right-hander had a locker in Minnesota’s Spring Training complex.Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune confirms the sides have a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp.

Laweryson returns to the only organization he’d known until November. Minnesota selected him in the 14th round in 2019 out of the University of Maine. They called him up for the first time last September. The 6’4″ righty made five appearances, allowing two runs (one earned) across 7 2/3 innings. He struck out seven without issuing a walk. Laweryson also pitched well in Triple-A, turning in a 2.86 earned run average while striking out a quarter of opposing hitters.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) has a strong statistical track record. Laweryson owns a 3.39 ERA with a 27% strikeout percentage over 327 minor league innings. Teams evidently remain skeptical about how it’ll translate over a larger sample against big league hitters. Laweryson’s 93.2 mph average fastball isn’t especially imposing. He doesn’t have a power breaking ball either, sitting 85-86 mph with a cutter while mixing in a low-80s changeup.

Minnesota dropped him from the 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason despite having one of the league’s weakest bullpens. The Halos claimed him but cut him loose to make room on the roster when they re-signed Yoán Moncada. The Twins also have former big leaguers Liam Hendriks, Julian Merryweather, Dan Altavilla, Matt Bowman and Grant Hartwig battling for spots in a wide open middle relief group.

The White Sox have a minor league agreement with right-handerAustin Voth, reportsJames Fegan of Sox Machine. The Wasserman client will be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Voth is back in affiliated ball after one season with the Chiba Lotte Marines in Japan. The 33-year-old tossed 125 innings of 3.96 ERA ball with a modest 17.4% strikeout rate. He attacked the strike zone but didn’t miss many bats or get a lot of ground-balls. That was Voth’s first season in Asia after a decade in the affiliated ranks. He has pitched parts of seven seasons in the big leagues, spending the majority of his career in the DMV area between the Nationals and Orioles.

A former fifth-round pick by Washington, Voth worked out of the rotation for his first couple seasons. He moved to the bullpen in 2021 but made a return to the rotation in Baltimore the following season. Voth was a full-time reliever between 2023-24. He spent the first of those seasons in Baltimore and the latter with his hometown Mariners. Voth managed 61 innings of 3.69 ERA ball for the M’s but had a rough September and was non-tendered at year’s end.

The White Sox have taken a handful of fliers on former big leaguers coming back from Asia under general manager Chris Getz. They hit on the Erick Fedde signing a couple years ago and added former Mets first-rounderAnthony Kay fortwo years and $12MM this winter. Unlike those pitchers, Voth isn’t guaranteed a major league roster spot. He’ll presumably battle for a long relief role but has the ability to build up as a starter if necessary.

Feb 13: Baltimore has officially announced the Bassitt signing. No corresponding move was needed, as the club had room on the 40-man for the veteran righty. The Orioles’ 40-man roster is now full.

Feb. 12:The Orioles are reportedly in agreement with starterChris Bassitt on a one-year, $18.5MM contract, pending a physical. Bassitt, a client of Meister Sports Management, receives a $3MM signing bonus and would unlock another $500K if he reaches 27 starts. Baltimore has an opening on the 40-man roster after losing infielderBryan Ramos on waivers to St. Louis.

President of baseball operations Mike Elias has made a habit of signing veteran starters to one-year deals over the past few years. They found some success withKyle Gibson in 2023. Last winter’s reunion with Gibson and additions of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano did not go as planned. Bassitt is in a similar stage of his career as he nears his 37th birthday, but he should have a higher floor than those previous additions.

Bassitt didn’t reach 100 MLB innings in a season until his age-30 campaign in 2019. He has been a consistent mid-rotation presence over the last seven years. Only once did his earned run average climb north of 4.00. His 2.29 mark during the shortened season was a small sample outlier, but he has otherwise been a safe bet to allow between three and four earned runs per nine while logging a heavy workload. Bassitt has surpassed 150 innings in each of the last five seasons, one of just six pitchers to do that. He’s eighth in total innings over that stretch.

The veteran righty has paired the bulk with mid-rotation quality. He’s coming off a 3.96 ERA with slightly better than average underlying marks. Bassitt fanned 22.6% of batters faced against a 7.1% walk rate across 170 1/3 innings a year ago. His per-pitch whiff rate is a little below average, but he has managed to strike out between 22-23% of opponents in each of the past four seasons.

Bassitt’s velocity has ticked down slightly as he has gotten into his mid-30s. His sinker averaged 91.6 mph last season, narrowly a career low. That’s still not far off the 92-93 mph range in which he had worked throughout his career. The sinker is Bassitt’s primary offering, but Statcast identified eight distinct pitches that he used at least occasionally during his final season in Toronto. He mostly works with a sinker, cutter and curveball and generally does well to limit hard contact.

The biggest concern may be Bassitt’s issues against left-handed hitters. While he held them in check earlier in his career, Bassitt has seen his platoon splits widen over the past few seasons. Since the start of 2023, lefties have gotten to him at a .284/.360/.483 clip in more than 1200 plate appearances. He has held same-handed opponents to a punchless .224/.286/.323 line in a similar number of at-bats over that stretch.

Bassitt is coming off a three-year, $63MM contract with the division rival Blue Jays. He provided Toronto with 541 1/3 innings of 3.89 ERA ball during the regular season. Bassitt only once missed a start, as a minor bout of back inflammation sent him to the injured list last September. He missed the Division Series win over the Yankees but returned for the AL Championship Series. Bassitt pitched out of relief and emerged as one of John Schneider’s most trusted leverage arms in October. He fired 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball with 10 strikeouts during Toronto’s pennant run.

One year after helping the Jays go worst to first in the AL East, Bassitt will hope to accomplish the same feat with Baltimore. The Orioles have had a big offseason after stumbling to a 75-87 showing. They signedPete Alonso (a former teammate of Bassitt’s in New York) to a monster five-year, $155MM deal. The O’s swapped oft-injured starterGrayson Rodriguez for another righty power bat, Taylor Ward, while dealing four prospects and a draft choice to the Rays forShane Baz. They signed Ryan Helsley to a two-year deal to replace injured closer Félix Bautista and reunited with Zach Eflin on a $10MM contract.

The Orioles again shied away from the top of the free agent starting pitching market, preferring to make a splash in the middle of the lineup. They’ll hope to unlock another gear from Baz, a former top prospect who has shown flashes but been inconsistent over his first couple seasons.Trevor Rogers will look to build off last year’s fantastic final few months, while Kyle Bradish has a chance to be an upper mid-rotation starter now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery.

Bassitt slots behind Rogers, Bradish and Baz as locks to open the year in Craig Albernaz’s rotation. Eflin will be assured of the fifth starter role as long as he’s fully recovered from last August’s back surgery. He’s expected to be a full participant in Spring Training, so that should be the case. That could pushDean Kremer and/orTyler Wellsback to Triple-A Norfolk to open the season. Both pitchers still have an option remaining, though they’re each approaching the five-year service cutoff at which they’d earn the right to refuse any minor league assignments. Wells needs another 40 days on an MLB roster to get there, while Kremer is 60 days away.

The O’s could use Wells in long relief and start the year with Kremer rounding out a six-man rotation if they want both pitchers in the majors. A rotation surplus usually works itself out before long. TheBraves,Blue Jays andTigers have all announced significant injury losses within the first two days of camp. Even if all of Baltimore’s starters are currently healthy, they’d be fortunate if that’s the case by Opening Day.

Bassitt may not be the top-of-the-rotation type that O’s fans had coveted, but he’s a sensible pickup for a team that’ll keep an eye on Bradish’s and Eflin’s innings after lost seasons. MLBTR had predicted a two-year, $38MM contract at the beginning of the offseason. Baltimore was able to avoid committing that second season in an offseason whenMerrill Kelly commanded $20MM annually over two years from the Diamondbacks at the same age.

The O’s payroll projection climbs to $166MM, as calculated byRosterResource. Despite the handful of significant offseason pickups, they’re only about $6MM above where they opened last season. This will probably wrap their significant offseason dealings, but they shouldn’t have an issue taking on some money midseason if they’re positioned to buy. Bassitt’s removal from the market leavesZac Gallen,Lucas Giolito and Max Scherzer as the best free agents available for teams still looking to add.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the agreement and terms. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images.