Diamondbacks Sign Zac Gallen
ByAnthony Franco | at
The Diamondbacks have re-signedZac Gallen on a one-year deal. The Boras Corporation client technically receives a $22.025MM guarantee that matches the value of the qualifying offer which he declined in November. However, a reported $14MM will be deferred via five $2.8MM installments paid between 2031-35. That means the D-Backs will only pay a little over $8MM, one-third of the contract, this year. Gallen’s luxury tax number is $18.7MM when factoring in the deferred money.Corbin Burnes was placed on the 60-day injured list as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery in order to make room for Gallen on the 40-man roster.
Gallen is coming off a down year that clearly sapped a lot of his appeal on the open market. He entered the season as a strong candidate to command upwards of $100MM once he hit free agency. Gallen stayed healthy and took all 33 turns through the rotation, but he had the worst rate stats of his career. He turned in a personal-high 4.83 earned run average with a career-worst 21.5% strikeout rate.
The season started especially poorly, as Gallen allowed at least five earned runs per nine innings in each of the first four months. He took a 5.40 ERA into the All-Star Break and had a 5.60 mark across 127 innings at the trade deadline. The D-Backs were aggressive sellers, moving Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez, Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller. They didn’t find an offer they liked on Gallen more than the draft pick they’d collect if he signed elsewhere after rejecting the qualifying offer.
Arizona reportedly was concerned about overworking young pitchers down the stretch, so they got some benefit out of holding Gallen for the innings alone. He performed better after the deadline, tossing quality starts in eight of his last 11 outings. The 30-year-old turned in a 3.32 ERA over his final 65 innings. The Diamondbacks went 7-4 in those games, part of the reason they were able to hang in the Wild Card picture until the final weekend despite the July selloff.
While it was an encouraging last couple months, it wasn’t exactly a return to peak form. Gallen only struck out 20% of opponents during that stretch. He was helped a lot by a .232 average on balls in play. Gallen had struck out between 25-29% of opponents in each of his first five-plus MLB seasons. The swing-and-miss drop wasn’t quite so extreme on a per-pitch basis, but last year’s 9.5% swinging strike rate was the second-lowest mark of his career.
There weren’t any dramatic changes to Gallen’s raw stuff. His fastball averaged 93.5 mph, right in line with his career mark. That’s essentially league average for a right-handed starting pitcher. Opponents have had increasing success against Gallen’s heater over the past couple seasons. He managed decent results on his knuckle-curve and changeup, his top two secondary offerings. He sporadically mixed a cutter, slider and sinker — all of which were hit hard.
It remains to be seen if they’ll make any changes to his arsenal going into 2026. Gallen began to scale back his four-seam fastball usage in the final few months last season, largely in favor of more changeups. In any case, the team probably feels he deserved a little better than a near-5.00 ERA would suggest. Statcast’s “expected” ERA, which is based on his strikeout/walk profile and the batted balls he allows, landed at 4.28. His 4.24 SIERA was in a similar range. A positive regression toward those metrics would make him a league average starter.
This is an ideal outcome for the Diamondbacks. They were willing to pay an upfront $22.025MM salary to retain Gallen in November. His decision to decline the QO may very well have opened the payroll room to bring Kelly back on a two-year, $40MM free agent deal. Team personnel maintained throughout the offseason that they’d like to retain Gallen if they could make it work financially.
Owner Ken Kendrick raved about Gallen as far back as September. “He’s a special young man who spent nearly seven years as a D-Back. He definitely had an up-and-down season — performed better in the later part of the year, certainly, than earlier in the year. … He’s loved being a Diamondback,” Kendrick said at the time. “I don’t want to say it’s out of the touch of reality that we’d work out an arrangement to bring him back. He’s been a great D-Back. Last I recall, he was the guy who pitched seven or eight innings of no-hit ball in a World Series game for the Arizona Diamondbacks. … He’s the guy you want to root for.”
Just this week, manager Torey Lovullo said the clubhouse would “would welcome him with open arms, certainly” if they could get a deal done. Now that it has come to pass, he’ll slot alongside Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt in the projected rotation. That could push free agent pickup Michael Soroka into a long relief role unless they decide to run a six-man rotation. They’re without a true ace until Corbin Burnes makes it back from Tommy John surgery; he’s aiming for some time around the All-Star Break. There’s far more stability than they had at the beginning of the winter, allowing them to take their time in deciding when to bring up prospects like Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake, both of whom they acquired from Texas in the Kelly trade.
Penciling in a $22.025MM salary for Gallen would bring Arizona’s payroll projection to roughly $194MM, as calculated byRosterResource. That’d technically be right in line with last year’s $195MM season-opening mark, which Kendrick said at the beginning of the winter that the team wouldn’t match. However, they’re reportedly only on the hook for around $8MM in salary payments this year, so the D-Backs didn’t need to dramatically stretch the budget after waiting out the offseason.
The Diamondbacks don’t forfeit any of their existing draft choices to re-sign their own qualified free agent. Any other team would have punted at least one draft choice and potentially international signing bonus pool space to sign him. They are indirectly losing a pick by forfeiting the right to compensation.
That selection would have come after the first round in 2026 if Gallen had signed elsewhere for at least $50MM. That seemed a distinct possibility early in the offseason but almost certainly wasn’t happening in the middle of February. It’s more likely that they’re passing on a compensation pick that would have landed 73rd or 74th overall, which they receive if he’d walked for less than $50MM. That’s not a huge cost compared to bringing back a potential mid-rotation starter on a favorable deal.
Although the team must be happy with the outcome, it’s undoubtedly not what Gallen envisioned for his first trip to free agency.Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests he declined multi-year offers from other teams because he preferred to remain with the Diamondbacks. That doesn’t mean that the market didn’t materialize as hoped. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80MM deal at the beginning of the offseason. It seems clear in retrospect that teams weren’t willing to go to those lengths given Gallen’s disappointing platform year.
Even if staying in Arizona was his first choice all along, he’s coming out quite a bit worse than if he’d accepted the qualifying offer. He’ll receive the same amount of money in the long run, but the true value of the deferred money is worth less than if he’d collected it all in 2026, as evidenced by the lower luxury tax number. That probably doesn’t mean much for the team — they would’ve been more than $20MM away from the CBT threshold in either case — but illustrates that there’s a significant gap between the QO and this contract.
Gallen did at least agree to terms within a couple days of camps opening. He’ll report to the team by the beginning of full squad workouts and should have plenty of time to be ready for Opening Day. One can imagine he didn’t want to wait until close to the regular season, as former teammateJordan Montgomery did in 2024. Montgomery was very critical of how Boras had managed negotiations and switched agencies within two weeks of signing with the D-Backs. The lefty pitched poorly in ’24, then underwent Tommy John surgery last spring. He signed a $1.25MM deal with Texas this week and wound up making $48.75MM over three seasons from 2024-26.
There’s certainly a world where things work out well for Gallen in the long run. He’ll return to the open market at age 31 without being weighed down by draft compensation. A player can only receive the qualifying offer once in his career. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table if he rebounds to the form he showed in 2022-24: a 3.20 ERA and 26% strikeout rate over 93 starts. Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso and Matt Chapman are all Boras clients who found disappointing markets in one offseason and went on to much more lucrative contracts after bounce back performances.
Time will tell if Gallen can follow the same path. His immediate focus will be on trying to get Arizona to a playoff berth in an annually difficult NL West. Gallen was the last unsigned qualified free agent and arguably the last potential impact player available. Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, Zack Littell andGriffin Canning headline a dwindling free agent class.
Steve Gilbert of MLB.com first reported the D-Backs were nearing a deal with Gallen.Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reported it was a one-year contract.Ken Rosenthal ofThe Athletic reported it was a $22.025MM guarantee with roughly $14MM in deferrals.John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports added details on the deferral payouts.Rosenthal reported Gallen’s luxury tax number.
Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri, Imagn Images.
186 Comments
What a shocker
Less than QO?
Exact match to QO in order to assuage his ego. $14M or so deferred so he lost money not taking the offer from the start.
3 free agents left on the contest. Littell, Scherzer and Giolito.
I think the only thing jamming up Giolito is his injury history. He’s coming off a better season than Gallen.
That and all the bom bons hes been eating. Tho if you calculate on $/lb hes becoming a much better bargain
The QO ruined his market.
Deferred money!! Ruining Baseball!
Why?
Every team has the same option.
Are you jealous of teams that decide to use it?
To be honest I could care less which teams do or don’t use deferred money because eventually they will have to pay the piper.
I think he is joking on this one.
I blame Nutting. Been deferring money for 20 years until he had Skenes Bubba KG Ashcraft.
Who is KG
Konnor Griffin. If you don’t know him good chance you will next few years months weeks.
Kevin Garnett, taking a shot at baseball now.
I would pay good money to see Kevin Garnett play baseball. XD
Yes some people don’t sense sarcasm well.
KG was a decent actor in Uncut Gems. It wasn’t much of a stretch playing a fictionalization version of himself though.
My Astros haven’t done deferred money in a long time. We are paying deferrals to Zack Grienke though, but that’s the Diamondbacks.
Sheldons
Nice to see Zac Gallen resign with the Diamondbacks
The pick crushed his market elsewhere
More like his down year crushed his market.
Of course
Good for the Dbacks keeping Gallen in the desert.
Enters camp sheepishly, without much eye contact.
Ha ha ha. One of your best !
Definitely makes them better. Hope he doesn’t continue a spiral downwards. If he is good they contend for a wildcard. If not they are much more fringe.
I figured when the Orioles didn’t sign Gallen and signed Bassitt signed with the Orioles…Gallen was going back
Dbacks lose the comp pick they would have gotten, but at this point the chances of him getting a $50m+ contract were small anyway.
“Dbacks lose the comp”..You can’t really “lose” something you never really had or were never guaranteed to have.
The Dbacks have tried as hard as any team in MLB to be competitive these last few years and lets all hope their injury luck begins to even out.
@mlb fan, totally agree, specially for a small payroll team.
As it was meant to be
Anxious to see the terms. Other teams weren’t going to give up a pick for one year of Gallen, but the Dbacks are managing their salaries closely this season. Felt like Gallen didn’t have a ton of leverage at this point.
I’m sure that was humbling, but it seems like there have been a lot of people who get messed up when they skip/rush spring training by signing late. This is a good decision for him long term.
Very little leverage. He wasn’t going to get a better deal elsewhere. Another example of the QO really effecting someone. I was surprised at the beginning of the off-season how many players accepted them but it may have been the best decision for all of them.
What set him back his how he pitched last year
Performance and QO both dictated how he was going to do. Performance probably more yes. But having to give up picks for a guy who looks anything but a sure bet doesn’t help.
Imanaga was smart, very similar boat with his performance.
Woodruff surprised me but he also has health concerns.
Grisham probably made the right call.
No idea why the Tigers offered Gleybor a QO.
I think out of all of those players Woodruff would have done best.
Gallen was a borderline QO guy. He would have been a no brainer based on performance prior to 2025. He was so off last season that he had to settle for less than the QO. That largely based on his terrible 2025 season.
Cease didn’t have a good year either but he still got paid. Although maybe cease has a much higher ceiling?
Cease got paid off of his strike out rate and his some of his other secondary stats. He also in my eyes and about everyone else got overpaid
Cease is obviously way better than Gallen. He led the league in strikeouts per 9. The front offices don’t care about ERA. His is bound to drop back down this year. It was 3.47 in 2024.
Not really. We’ve seen guys like Stroman and Taijuan Walker get paid in the $18-$20 million range over the past few years. This is just the going rate for pitchers. Cease is easily worth $30 million if those guys got 2/3 of that 3 or 4 years ago.
Cease Ks a lot of guys but his WHIP goes wildly up and down year over year along with his ERA. Gallen has been consistent until this past season. Ks are fun and all but keeping runs off the board is the real point
Sure, but that’s the case when comparing any player to a bad contract. It’s like saying Bogaerts is a great contract compared to Chris Davis.
Will they offer him the equivalent of the QO he declined?
Hopefully less
Less would be great.
It was equal
Same amount as the QO, but with deferrals makes it more budget friendly in this coming year for the Dbacks.
Joe Buzas? Should I know who that is??
Yes and no. Total amount of QO but wonder what the deferrals make the actual value?
Not mention inflation reducing the value of future dollars. The article didn’t mention anything about interest on the deferrals.
@dmp
The CBA doesn’t allow for the player to earn interest on the deferred money but the team saves money on their end.
Millionaires invest the overwhelming majority of their millions in compounding assets as soon as they prudently can. (With very little of it sitting in mere savings accounts.)
So, Gallen will likely lose out on a few million bucks of accumulated net worth (over the long-haul) by deferring most of his 2026 salary for so many years. It’s a serious financial concession for any player to make.
goob
“He performed better after the deadline, tossing quality starts in eight of his last 11 outings. The 30-year-old turned in a 3.32 ERA over his final 65 innings”
Only if you think that they and their agents don’t understand the time value of money.
He wasn’t choosing between $22 million in 2026 or this deal with deferrals.
He was choosing between this deal or deals with similar present values.
He did lose out in not accepting the Q/O since this deal haa a lower PV
Oops
Had the wrong quote in my clipboard
“Gallen will likely lose out on a few million bucks of accumulated net worth (over the long-haul) by deferring most of his 2026 salary for so many years”
Meant to quote this
goob
(With very little of it sitting in mere savings accounts.)
======================
The players effectively earn about 4.5% on the deferrals.
Sweet! Finally they get it done. This is where he wants to be.
No, he would have gone elsewhere for more years and dollars.
He’ll be a free agent next year with no pick attached. And he has a chance to pitch better this year than last which will help his market.
Also has a chance to pitch worse, but no pick will definitely help.
It would be pretty hard to pitch worse, but even if he did he wouldn’t have comp attached so he would likely find a better market unless he is in the fives showing serious inability to limit the long ball again.
Holy run-on-sentence Batman.
Dynamite work Monty
I was hoping for this outcome all along. Best of luck Zac!
Rooting for guy to not get paid what he wanted and having to crawl back to Arizona lil different but glad you got the result you wanted.
I wanted to see him back in Arizona. He probably should have taken the QO in the first place. If he signs somewhere else, he probably takes less money. This isn’t a terrible outcome for Gallen earnings wise.
@AI GM
That sounds a bit personal. Every year there are free agents left standing without chairs when the music stops playing. This year it was Gallen. You’ve got to play the game and take the risk if you wanna get paid. He made a poor bet but I doubt he’s losing any sleep over his decision.
@YBC Nothing personal for me. 1 million or 1 billion I don’t don’t care what he gets paid. I was just poking a lil fun. Like Don was hoping for that but I knew what Don meant. Guess it hiflew over your head.
@ybc It sounds more personal when you read some other comments above by oppo nacho and Horace Allen saying that they were hoping he’d get less than the QO.
Wow definitely great news!
I’m guessing 1/15
Pretty classy move by AZ, even it was pretty much on their terms. Pulling for a nice comeback for Gallen. Now go fire your agent.
I don’t think they did it because they’re classy. They had a need for another starter and he fit their budget.
$22 M but 14M is deferred.
So, basically, it took him all winter to accept the QO
Only QO’s don’t an option for deferred money.
Only cheaper this year for the team, kind of a win win
technically its less money for him as by the time he is paid $22M will be worth less. (Inflation, etc)
It ain’t just technical, it’s real. People who have many, many millions of dollars more than they need to live very, very well on, invest in things that beat the pants off of inflation. So, beyond inflation, deferred compensation comes with very real financial opportunity costs.
Not that any such people will ever have to worry about missing a meal or anything. 🙂
invest in things that beat the pants off of inflation.
=========================
Most investment strategies have a fixed income component. Consider this an $18.7M fixed income invest, which means the rest of his $15-20M in savings can into a riskier asset class.
So it is my understanding that the player gives his “OK” to have salary deferred, it’s not stipulated or mandated by the team ? So a team cannot say “you’re getting deferred money no matter what.”
Ignorant capable of understanding
Deferrals can be proposed and accepted/rejected by either side. Ohtani’s camp suggested his contract structure.
I love it when a plan comes together!
Splendid
It’s a reasonable gamble for the team without the burden of one of those 2 or 3 year deals with opt outs. If he performs well, it’s a win for the team regardless of what he does in 2027. If he’s just adequate, then it’s a controllable limited loss. He miscalculated, but ends up only slightly worse off–he’s a year older, but won’t get the QO a second time. He’ll also be tradable if he’s doing well, so value can be recouped.
For his sake, hopefully it wasn’t the pressure of pitching in a free agent year that led to his down 2025, since he’ll be in the same boat again this year.
Caving to pressure is better than needing arm surgery or declining talent.
I think he’s just declining.
Raw numbers don’t agree. From watching him pitch every game last year, IMO it was his head – he couldn’t understand why the pitches he made the year before weren’t getting the same result. Hopefully he adjusts with a different mix or use of his pitches, his fastball speed and other metrics as noted in this article were the same last year.
His peripherals and surface level stats have both been declining for several years now.
@Smith 3
On the other hand, one might just as easily theorize that having already gone through that walk-year pressure once, he could be better prepared for dealing with it this time around.
Usually that makes the player perform far better than their usual level. Anthony Santander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Harrison Bader, Jorge Polanco, and Tyler O’Neil were some recent examples. Although occasionally the player will perform worse, like Gallen or Michael Conforto in his last Mets year.
Hopefully he takes to heart that he is pitching for his next contract and focuses on being his best and pitches great.
If he pitches the same as 2025 or worse, he won’t see a $20M AAV contract next off-season even if he isn’t tied to draft compensation.
Should have done that last year then
I mean this is easier said than done. No one goes out to tank their season or careers. There’s so many factors that can cause you to pitch or play badly.
Costs them less than QO with deferrals, tidy.
Bridge contract for next year without the qo attached to him.
Good for both parties. Especially if he has a plus year.
Strike out decline bigger issue than QO imo. That and he might have asked for too much early on.
Either way, it’s probably the best outcome for him and the team at this point.
Not really good for Gallen, as he was seeking far more money and years.
I meant good as in it’s very late and he didn’t technically lose money (deferrals yes), and the teams that would possibly pay what he wants and give up a pick are finished filling their rotations.
Without the QO hanging over a so so season, he has a chance to have a better season, increasing his chances of getting a better contract next off-season.
Red flags everywhere and the Snakes saw it firsthand. I would have stuck to the plan and moved on after he declined the QO. Can still move him at the deadline if their season torpedoes and he still has value.
Could be a arm injury coming but if not it’s a fair enough price for 1 year.
Since they did see it firsthand. They must believe his problem is fixable.
If he pitches exactly the same as 2025 it’s still a contract you would be fine with. Hurt or gets worse then not the case.
Yeah, this is the going rate for innings eaters now, if he can’t return to his past self.
Makes sense to bring him back on a one year deal, no one was biting despite his track record. However, for a team really ramping it up to compete, their bullpen is hideous. I don’t understand why it’s so neglected? That will likely de-rail any shot they have to compete.
No one was biting because of his track record, not despite it. The QO, along with his declining numbers over the last 2-3 seasons, made it difficult for teams to lose a draft pick, on what amounts to a bounce back candidate.
Because they’re trying to cut payroll so the money isn’t there to spend big on the pen. Plus they’ve got plenty tied up in injured pitchers still – the pen would look a lot better if Puk, Martinez, and Saalfrank (injury recently disclosed) were healthy. Might have to count on development from their depth, particularly lefty Garcia and trade acquisition Strowd or a return to form with health from Jamison.
I would have taken the QO. Least they were nice to give him the same number even though deferred. Would have preferred draft pick I imagine but 1 year deal good runner up.
Good for the Diamondbacks. They’re not catching the Dodgers but this signing could further separate them from their other competitors in the NL West.
The Padres and Giants haven’t dome much this offseason. The former has had financial constraints while the latter’s moves haven’t made much sense. The Giants had money to spend and needed more quality SP depth but failed to pursue Framber Valdez, Merrill Kelly or Zac Gallen in free agency. Arizona now has the latter two back in the fold.
The Diamondbacks wild card could be Corbin Burnes in July. That’s his self proclaimed ETA and could give Arizona a huge boost for their chances at…a wild card spot. 🙂
AZ was worse than both SD and SF last year. It’s true SF didn’t do a lot, and neither did SD, but AZ is running it back with basically the same team as last season minus Naylor and Suarez. The bullpen is not good. They’re projected for 4th in the NLW and I don’t see that being wrong.
Three straight years is ERA has gone up
Not a good trend
I think he is overpaid
I’m not sure why he thought he would get a 3 year deal, or why he thought teams were going to give up draft pick(s) to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal. Imanaga figured that out and accepted the QO from the Cubs, Gallen should have done the same.
That’s easy to say in hindsight but he’s 30 with a career ERA+ of 119 in 1000 IP. Most players this good in his position would take the free agent route. It just didn’t work out for him this offseason.
Imanga is 32 and had made about $11M in his previous NPB eight-year career.
Yeah the career ERA+ is 119, but he hasn’t pitched at that level recently. He has a 99 ERA+ over the last 2 seasons, and an 89 last season. That’s what teams were looking at, not the 119 ERA+.
Agreed. I was noting what Gallen’s motivation may have been to reject the Q.O.
Well Gallen made $13.5 mil just last year so I’m not sure what Imanaga’s career money in Japan means here. But you’re right about Gallen’s career track record pointing to an FA with better results.
It’s pretty simple: Gallen tested the market and kept his options open. It backfired (although at least I don’t know what other offers he might have rejected), but a fallback salary of $ 14m might still prevent him from starving.
Frankly, I am impressed with how many people here knew exactly what would happen all along (as they do claim now). If only Gallen had been so wise and utilized this superior knowledge!
Gruß,
BSHH
Dbacks should be getting a humbled, motivated version of Gallen in ’26. That said, he was motivated last year heading into free agency and struggled mightily. At the end of the day, the Dbacks need innings and, hopefully, Gallen will deliver another 30+ starts.
$22.5 million isn’t THAT humbling
Even $10 million is fifty years times $200,000.
That’s a lifetime of earnings for many of us.
– – –
I am sure that there was a team ready to offer him three years at ten million a year. But they did not want to give up a pick for one or two years, so this deal was the end result.
Well another strikeout for me (whiff) on the free agent contest. Been stuck at 9 since Realmuto signed.
I am at 14. Still upset at myself for not picking Grisham to Yankees. Would not have won anyway.
14 is solid. I am at 11. Think I did the same last year.
I’m at 17 now and reallllllly upset at not picking Grisham to take it! Would have had a chance to win it if it had.
17! Holy smokes good job!
Thanks and by far, best year ever. I love the contest.
Same!
Who won the Gallen-Chisholm trade? I still don’t know.
Diamondbacks, without him they don’t make the 2023 World Series.
Here’s to hoping the Dbacks clinch at least a wild card!
He should have waited until after the draft.
Zero chance anyone would’ve given him this kind of money to only pitch <1/2 the season.
That’s a massive win for Arizona. They’re only paying ~$8M in real 2026 cash and they avoided surrendering a comp pick by keeping him.
Now we’ll see if Gallen can recover so he could re-enter free agency next winter without a QO attached.
They would have gained—not lost— a comp pick if Gallen signed elsewhere. Teams get the comp pick when their FA turns down the QO and signs w/another team. C’mon York…..you know this!
@NashvilleJeff
Yes, but they signed a FA that had the QO attached to him but since they resigned him, they don’t have to surrender any comp because he’s signing with the same team. I think it’s just the wording that is confusing.
Yeah, they don’t have to surrender a pick to re-sign their own FA that they issued a QO to. They also don’t gain a comp pick because another team didn’t sign their FA w/his attached QO. Lol.
Maybe a marginal win for AZ, but certainly not a massive one. They got someone to give them innings. But unless he somehow reverses the downward trend of the past 3 seasons, he isn’t moving AZ beyond what they did last year.
$8 million is just what they’re paying this calendar year. The 2026 cash value of the contract is roughly $18 million.
Yep, a $4M+ discount to the QO.
Have to like it for that price. Decent chance they can flip him for a better prospect than the expected value of the 73rd pick in the draft if they fall out of contention.
Yo his market clearly tanked
If he does well and the team isn’t in it, he can be a trade deadline candidate and get them that pick they missed out on with the QO.
If they are in it, it was likely a good pickup.
“If he does well…”
That’s a big if.
True. But most contracts are based on if.
Also true, but that needs to be taken in context with past and recent performance. I’d rather take the if on a guy who’s been good for the last couple of seasons, than the if on a guy trending in the wrong direction.
Not sure I’d be convinced Gallen will continue to decline. Plenty of quality pitchers make changes that reverse short term declines, particularly at Gallen’s career stage and age. Might have to learn how to deal with velo declines with age and his past workload
But is it a short term decline? He was great in 2022. He was good in 2023, but still posted an ERA+ 32 lower than the previous season. In 2024 it was 11 points lower than 2023. And last season represented another drop, this time minus 26 points. Since 2022 his ERA+ has dropped 69 points.
I think there’s a reason he wound up back with AZ. Sure, the QO was a detriment, but it didn’t keep teams from signing guys like Framber and Ranger. Maybe he will make adjustments and bounce back. I’d be happy for him, but I’m skeptical.
So glad the Padres didn’t sign him. Not bc of his quality, but the QO made it a bad choice with loss of picks, a thin system and poor odds for upcoming season even with him. Do your draft magic AJP.
I like
He must feel pretty silly right now, huh?
That $22M commitment takes the sting out of silly
The time-value cost of his deferred comp, makes the real-money value of the deal considerably less than $22M … silly. 🙂
He ended up getting less than if he had just accepted the QO.
I’d feel pretty silly if I put myself through an entire offseason of uncertainty just to end up back where I began but with less to show for it.
I have to imagine he understood the risk when he chose to roll the dice. He’s a big boy and likely decided in advance that he’s not gonna lose sleep over a less than optimal result.
I think his current mindset is much more likely to be — game on, MFers! 🙂
Obviously neither of us REALLY know what he was thinking, but I would bet that he never seriously considered this outcome because Boras was hyping him up about how much he was going to get on the open market.
And I’d bet anything that part of their discussions included evaluating any and all less-than-optimal potential outcomes.
I’m sure it was mentioned, I just don’t think he ever actually thought it might really happen.
From everything I am reading, the Diamondbacks were the only team that made Gallen a firm offer and even then it was only for the QO amount. Everyone else was scared off by the QO hanging over his head.
Wonder if he considered taking QO but Boras takes him out of it.
If Gallen was considering accepting the Q.O., he could’ve not used Boras and saved himself some agent fees by representing himself with an hourly contract attorney.
I guess this is the equivalent of Scott Boras running back to the D-Backs with his tail between his legs. After the year Gallen just had, Boras gave him terrible advice. Should have taken the Qualifying offer.
While it’s less than $22M present day $$ due to the deferrals, I would have liked to see the player suffer real consequences in financial terms, like if the best offer was from a team that said
“It’s February and you’re unsigned. So if we’re giving up a high draft pick, to sign you, you’re getting a $12 million, one-year deal and we want a club option for a second season at $20M.”
When/if Burnes comes back around the All-Star break, the Dbacks will finally have the pitching staff/starters envisioned last year. With a rotation of
1. Burnes
2. Gallen
3. Kelly
4. Nelson
5. Pfaadt
BUT, will Burnes successfully come back from TJS?
Will Gallen successfully be the pitcher he was in ‘21-‘24?
Will Pfaadt get back to his ceiling?
Will Kelly age well?
Will Nelson continue his development?
And will all of them be healthy in ‘26?
Very good points. Yeah the rotation looks good on paper, but it needs a lot to go right. As to Burnes, Robbie Ray coming back from TJS in 2024 posted an 84 ERA+. And even in 2025, after a great start, he faded as he wore down a bit after missing so much time.
Last season Gallen was in a platform season, and didn’t pitch that well. Merrill Kelly should be good, he always has been, but not sure they can expect anything better than 2025. I think Nelson and Pfaadt will be solid, but is that going to be enough?
Who is SP5 out of spring training, ERod or Soroka? Either way, I hope the decision is based on results, not contract size and reputations.
Not sure. I’d probably guess ERod. since he was better more recently. But, Soroka with youth in his favor, might earn it with a big ST.
This actually works in Gallen’s favor if he rebounds from last season and puts up more typical Zac Gallen numbers he’ll re-enter free agency next winter without a QO attached to him
Yeah, not having the QO next season will make him more attractive to teams. But if he rebounds is a big if. If 2025 was the first below average year it would be reasonable to think he’d bounce back. But each year has been worse than the year before for 3 seasons now.
One would think, he’d have produced better in 2025, his FA walk year. But 2025 was a poor platform season. I wouldn’t assume he’s going to rebound. Good for him if he does, I’m not rooting against him, but I remain skeptical, which is why I’m glad the Giants didn’t sign him.
Dbacks could have a pretty damn good playoff pitching staff if everyone who’s rehabbing makes it back — and, if they make the playoffs.
If he loses his starting rotation spot, wonder if Soroka could be a halfway decent “bridge closer” until Martinez and Puk return? Soroka’s got the stuff, but can he stay healthy?
One overlooked factor was that Gallen pitched very well after the trade deadline when McCann was his catcher. Once McCann was re-signed, I figured Gallen might as well.
Interested to see if this kicks Soroka to the bullpen, or if they roll out a 6-man rotation. Plus, what happens when Burnes comes back? Probably a good problem to have if they have too many quality starters.
I didn’t know his curve ball is toast. Glad the Giants didn’t sign him for this high rate.
Pirates will do a 500M deal for Paul Skenes paid out in 1M increments every year.
“He performed better after the deadline, tossing quality starts in eight of his last 11 outings. The 30-year-old turned in a 3.32 ERA over his final 65 innings”
“Pre-All Star: 22.2 K%, 8.6 BB%, 4.79 FIP, 4.15 xFIP
Post-All Star: 20.3. 7.1, 3.95, 4.06”
Nearly identical xFIP. He pitched about the same in both halves.
This is what is right.
I would have liked to have seen the Cubs get Gallen, because that would have given the Cubs at least one durable starting pitcher. All of their first-line starters, and all of their second-line starters for that matter, are likely to spend big chunks of the season on the injured list. Also, getting Gallen would have reduced the number of starts for the Cubs’ trio of never-gonna-make-it’s: Assad, Wicks, and Brown. Whenever I read anyone listing those guys as good depth, I kind of tune out anything else that person is saying: Those guys aren’t good anything.
Bruce Levine is a strange case. I don’t think it’s just that he behaves as a tool for the agents, to drive their clients’ prices up by suggesting that the Cubs are in on them. I think it’s that he makes authoritative-sounding predictions to draw attention to himself, to imply that he is a real insider. Or even worse, he is so delusional that he thinks he can sort of WILL things to happen if he says they will enough. In his last years, Jerome Holtzman was kind of like that too. Levine does not serve his audience well.
The write-up is wrong. The Dbacks will PAY $18m+, but Gallen will only GET $8m this year. There’s enough confusion about deferrals without MLBTR getting it wrong!
About time
Gallen opponents average vs LHB:
2022: .146
2023: .244
2024: .222
2025: .256
What was he doing in 2022 that he hasn’t been able to duplicate? Is it that extra few inches of bite on his knuckle-curve?
KY
“Is it that extra few inches of bite on his knuckle-curve?”
The most obvious answer is small sample size variation.
You’re looking at a few hundred PA’s.
Yikes.
Im anxious to see Soroka pitch. His advanced numbers have largely been trending well since his return in ’23 though his FB% last year is worth noting. Looking at his pre-injury success and post injury improvement gives me optimism Soroka could make 20 starts and throw 100+ innings with slightly above average major league results.
Gallen should now fire his agent, Scott Boras.
This worked out great for the D-Backs – as for those saying he needs to find a new agent I’d pump the brakes on that one. While I can’t stand Boras, teams still need to be interested in any said player. The interest just wasn’t there
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