Blue Jays To Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal
ByDarragh McDonald | at
6:54pm: The deferrals will drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM, reportsMitch Bannon of The Athletic. That’d put the “true” value of the guarantee closer to $182MM.
6:25pm:The Blue Jays are going to signDylan Cease, reportsJon Heyman of The New York Post. It will be a seven-year, $210MM deal for the Boras Corporation client. There are some deferrals, perKen Rosenthal of The Athletic, though the details of the deferrals haven’t been publicly reported. Though the Jays gaveVladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension, this will be the largest free agent signing in franchise history, surpassingGeorge Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal.
Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.
Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.
On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.
As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting toJustin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.
But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.
His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.
As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.
As we were deliberating ourTop 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though it’s possible the deferrals end up putting the net present value closer to that projection.
The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty.Chris Bassitt andMax Scherzer became free agents.Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline, going for a $4MM buyout instead. In the long term,Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026.José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.
In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably.Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.
That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys likeEric Lauer,Ricky Tiedemann andBowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possibleJake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects likeGage Stanifer andJohnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.
Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor.RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals will reduce the contract’s actual value to an extent.
In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll say a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and at a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself will come with somewhere between $6MM and $10MM in tax commitments (depending on the post-deferral value), but the penalties would get higher with any more significant additions.
The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and surely have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play after the Cease deal. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.
Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation — a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/whenMichael King signs elsewhere.
Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.
375 Comments
Awesome!
Dolt – Yes as a Red Sox fan this makes me happy!
If you’re a Sox fan and this makes you happy I’m guessing you were the last kid in your class to figure out Santa wasn’t real.
Cease will be posting negative WAR by year 4 of this contract and beyond
Or the first. As a sox fan, I did not want a big dollar pitcher with a 4.55 era.
Who says Santa isn’t real?
dbd – Thank you for getting it, unlike Jeremy.
This contract won’t age well, and will be hard to dump.
I would have loved Cease. But to be honest that deal is wayyyy too lucrative at a 7 year term. I’d do 5/150 as an absolute max.
Is it going to age poorly…like the…checks notes…Sonny Gray contract.
Thanks for spoiling it, Dick
#ViolentNight
Cease is overhyped, guy struggles to get out of the 5th inning, control is, yes please pay him 210 million.
Don’t think they care. The window is now.
3.88 career ERA with 2nd-place and 4th-place Cy Young finishes in the last four years.
Buddy you just named every pitcher in the MLB other than like 10 guys
Jeremy Cmon dude it’s called sportsmanship…. No need be dbag .
Toronto didn’t even look at his era as it’s completely irrelevant.
It shows me how crazy the starting pitching market is. way too many years at a higher than I expected AAv
Toronto won’t care if they win the World Series in the next two seasons
gbs – Pitchers with career ERA’s near 4 are worthy of $210M contracts now?
When Boras clients sign this early there’s a reason.
BTW – His 2024 Cy votes season, his ERA was nearly a run higher on the road. And this year? Nearly two runs higher. He’s gonna really miss Petco.
Wait. What?!?!?!
FPG, I’m not sure he’s worth it, but dbdmack listed his 4.55 ERA in 2025 as if that’s all he is.
@Jeremy320
Wha? He’s not real?
The window was this past season. Everything went right until Game 7, 9th inning. You have to win when you can as you may never get another chance. That’s what makes Boston and San Francisco so impressive. Seven combined chances this century. Seven combined wines. Blade, Bo and Springer all had amazing seasons and it’s unlikely they will all peak the same year again (assuming Bo re-signs).
How is ERA totally irrelevant? Even saberstat geeks understand the correlation between a high ERA and being replaced by another pitcher. They’re paying him like a number one. Show me a championship team with a number one starter with an ERA of over 4.
Berrios 2.0
@FPG. I have a feeling the market is going to be bad. The top 10 will be alright, but the middle might get squeezed. I guess that’s good news you can probably get decent players on one year deals once the everyone has spent.
FPG – if you feel like your team is W.S. ready (as the Jays must feel) the second half of a long contract like this becomes irrelevant.
Yes, in year 5,6,7 its an undumpable albatross. However, youre paying for year 1,2,3 and 4.
If you win even one World Series trophy in those first four years youre good. Especially for a franchise like Toronto.
Year 3
RShore – It’s amazing how consistent he’s been between Min and Tor.
4.08 ERA in 781 innings with Minn
4.09 ERA in 790 innings with Tor
At the very least, he came as advertised.
I think thankfully the Sonny Gray trade took them out of the starting pitching market, unless an offer too good to pass up comes Breslow’s way i think the next focus is getting a bat and filling out the bullpen
Santa is real Misty, just like Bigfoot and Nessy
FPG,
That’s a similar reason I think Seattle’s pitchers are somewhat overrated. It’s a great pitcher’s park.
Sad – I totally agree, and the Jays have the money to take the risk.
I just have serious doubts that he will earn his annual salary in more than one of the first 4 years. I see him following the same path as Price etc.
gbs – Absolutely, the park factors are insanely favorable to pitchers …. some more than others.
I mean I really like Pivetta, but even I have acknowledged his pitching in Petco helped his numbers this year.
He barely throws 5 innings now. Should they expect less as the contract ages?
Pitchers who finish 2nd and 4th in cy young voting in 2 of the last 4 years are
Posters on the naughty list are the ones in denial.
I believe the contract will age, extremely poorly. Cease is a max effort guy, and he has already had arm issues early in his career.
It seems that also can be why his location has been so erratic in recent seasons. Seven years at $30/per, is a huge investment for a player like him. Good luck Blue Jays, but I’m glad you saved him from the Cubs.
Steve – Agreed, and they shouldn’t. They have the financial backing and they owe it to the fans.
Hahaha! Wait Santa isn’t real?
He’s not???
Ww0907, he’s not what?
ERA is directly affected by the defence played behind you. The Blue Jays have solid defence. They needed a Cease type.
My prediction. They will add Bo for sure, and maybe Tucker.
I hope they add Bassitt as swingman, bullpen, spot starter…
Dude could barely keep it in the yard pitching at Petco, he’s gonna get eaten alive in the AL East
Cringe.
They might do that, but even if they do I highly doubt it’ll be due to anything he does
Era isn’t a reliable indicator of performance and more importantly future performance.
Their rotation is now better than last year.
What about Fried’s? Or any of the Dodger’s pitchers? SP contracts are super risky. Red Sox seem more inclined to trade for younger or short term guys. Is it better to trade or pay?
I had Cease going to Boston. Is Cease at $26 better than Sonny at $21 and some decent prospects?
I mean why pay a guy for his prime years when you can spend 40 million for 1 year of a late 30s pitcher that’s proved they can’t pitch in the east
FPG
The Blue Jays only need Cease to be a durable middle of the rotation guy. Maybe it is an overpay, but it extends the margin by which the Jays are best in the division.
MLB: they tied with NY and Boston was just four games behind. Not much difference in my book. If NY and/or Boston improve on their defense, that club to me might be favored going into 26. Obviously, we need to see what other moves every club makes but I don’t see much of a difference.
MLB – I totally agree, and that’s why I gave credit to the Jays for spending now with the window wide open. They needed pitching, they got the best available SP (according to some experts anyways). If he has a nice rebound season, great. If he doesn’t, he’s still better than most of what they had this year.
It’s a weak free agent class this year, options are limited especially if you don’t have the prospects for trades.
Fever- Very glad the Sox did not make this deal. Never thought he would get 7 years and he was really not someone who would fit that second ace role so would not have been excited even with a short term deal. Other much more desirable arms out there.
Uncle – I’m a firm believer in going all out for the truly elite. Sox need to save the money for Skubal, just in case.
LFG!!!!!
Now get Imai and cbass as the 6th/late inning and jays rotation will be pretty darn good. Gaus, Biebs, Yesavage, Cease and Imai would be top 5 rotation in the league. Mind you was saying the same thing when they got Johnson and Burhle
Oh ya Berrios exists as well
Didn’t see this coming so soon.
Gotta get this done early for the bigger moves later.
Cease Fire!!! 🔥
Totally. For the Yankees, Orioles and Rays.
The Red Sox yesterday traded for a starting pitcher with a 4.28 ERA last year, and now today the Blue Jays signed a pitcher with a 4.55 ERA. Both heading to the explosive A.L. East.
I had the Blue Jays going with Framber. I think Cease has a higher ceiling so good for them.
This way lies madness
Notably this recalibrates the market for FA SP.
He went for what he should have.
I’d say so too.
A regrettable deal in the making. Seven years for Cease?
They’re trying to win a World Series now, year 7 be damned. It’s the pride of doing business for top-end free agent starters. Is it a huge risk with the way pitchers get injured these days. Sure. But a ring curse all
The red sox will trade for him in year 6 of the contract.
Ooff! Def thought he was going to NYM or CHC.
I was hoping the Cubs- but at 7/210 Jed would never touch that. Ever.
For that price, I’m glad they didn’t. Good for cease, hope the Jays can win one. I like them being aggressive.
Deferrals allegedly and TOR NY CHI would all pay different prices.
And in this case it makes Jed a smart man. No way any fan can fault him for not getting involved. Toronto will regret this signing.
If they win a ring next year, they’re it going to regret anything. This signing isn’t about 4 or 5 years from now. It’s about trying to win a championship right now while their window is open with an ace this peak.
Apparently some of it is deferred, so the present day value will be lower. That being sad I don’t know if I would have given him that contract.
Hopefully Pete Walker can do with him, what he did with Robbie Ray, and to a lesser extent Kikuchi. I hope they see something they think they can fix to make him more consistent.
Mitch Bannon is reporting the deferrals bring it down to present day value of around 26 million per year. That’s not too bad. That would be like 182 million over 7 years present day value.
Cease and Bieber in 2026 will cost $42 million, just a few million more than Bassett and Scherzer in 2025. Looks like a considerable upgrade to me.
LET ROSS COOOOOOK
WOW
Jays doing it
Wow. That’s impressive. Crazy 7 years. Starting pitchers don’t deserve this especially after most can’t guarantee more than 5 innings every time.
Probably true, but we just did the same with Fried last season.
Yeah but Fried is better
Sal – Exactly! Over the past 6 years Cease’s ERA is nearly a full run higher than Fried’s.
The Jays roasted Fried this year, so when they face each other there’ll be no excuses!!!
Fried is also 2 years older. And if NY wanted Cease they might have gotten him for less. And we have to see what deferrals are.
AI – Boras wouldn’t give the Yankees a discount, why should he?
True on the deferrals, although the Jays aren’t really known for heavy deferrals.
Two years age difference is not really a big deal IMO.
Who said anything about Boras giving Yankees discount
You could call it a turkey of a deal.
Risky deal from the outset. Year 1 was a success.
More importantly usually get hurt for like 2 of the years
It’s an overpay, to be sure, but virtually all Jays signings have to be overpays. It’s always been that way.
For what it’s worth, the Jays rotation currently looks something like this:
Gausman
Bieber
Cease
Yesavage
Berrios
—–
Lauer
Even if there’s no super dominant ace, That’s a deep rotation which was a noted weakness starting out last season.
I wonder if the jays have enough prospects for 1 season of Tarik skubal
they currently have 5 top 100 prospects. Yes they do have the prospects but it’s taken them 10 years to build a decent system would hate to burn it to the ground the second it starts to look good
Gee, I hope so.
Let’s go Blue Jays.
Trey would have to go
I know a LOT about having a good minor league system and then watching it go bye-bye very quickly. My Padres have been an excellent example of this during this decade. But at least we have made the playoffs more than ever as a result so…
The time is now. The east and American league is a bit weak right now and they have Vlad signed in his prime. They should go all in…. especially with all the playoff/world series revenue they got. 100% were willing to overpay for Dylan because of the added revenue.
The Padres system is thought to be weak right now, but is it really? Somehow the talent still seems to be developing. If it dries up, I’ll agree with you, but so far it seems like the Padres are backfilling well.
That’s what I’ve been hearing recently. I hope it’s true! I like what Preller did with last year’s draft in going for high-achievers – whether they were headed for surgery (Galina) or had somewhat questionable hitting skills (Wideman). And I really like the two catchers as well. And that young shortstop we got in the Milwaukee trade could be very big for us in a few years. Mendez looks promising too.
I meant Salina (Michael) and not Galina.
That’s the going rate for top pitchers these days. You can thank the Dodgers and Yankees.
This seems a bit rich of a deal and only Heyman has it so I will wait until more comes
Pasan just announced it.
I agree it is a bit rich. Not to mention the fact of the draft picks it will cost and if, and most likely will, push the Blue Jays into the second tax bracket (after a few more signings) forcing the loss of another draft pick and bumping them to a 80% tax rate as a second time payer.
I was hoping for Ranger Suarez.
Guess that’s enough to cover the higher taxes, though compared to California, it might not be that bad. Guess this helps sign Bichette.
Why would it help sign Bichette?
It shows the Jays want to contend, now they have more pieces, Bichette is more likely to return to a better team.
So it puts them on equal footing with every other team who is in on the top free agents. So in other words doesn’t help.
The Jays have a top 5 payroll, signed Vladdy to a $500M deal, and took a lead to the 9th inning in Game 7 of the World Series. I don’t know all of Bichette’s considerations but Toronto’s willingness to contend can’t possibly be hurting them.
Open the checkbook, Ross. Ed has the money.
and were bridesmaids on Soto and Ohtani. Nobody questions their desire to spend.
I don’t know. The Blue Jays are damn good. I see them keeping Bichette.
I see Bichette cut his hair. The money he saves on electricity not using his blow dryer is cost effective.
They were inches away from winning. But the Baseball Gos said NOPE. not this year Canada
Taxes are a bit higher in Ontario than CA…
I don’t know why all players with these huge deals don’t try and defer to beat the taxes.
Ontario is in CA
Actually, Ontario, California was founded by a guy from Brockville, Ontario. Pioneered orange farming there…
Was he le grand orange?
This signing puts them $20M over the CBT mark already which puts them in the second tier of penalties already. Not sure they’re going to jump past that tier completely with one more signing, which is where Bichette would put them. Especially when they need at least a couple more pieces.
ken – For one year they probably won’t care, they’ve got a good amount coming off the books after next season like the Springer contract.
Yeah I didn’t factor that in. And with the deferrals that drops the AAV a little too. I’m sure they’d try to work in some deferrals with Bichette as well.
They are definitely signing another big bat (at least they plan to). They’ve been in on both Tucker and Bichette from the start and it was reported they were planning on signing a starter on top of one of them.
It was also reported they are planning on putting all of their World series run revenue back into the team. They have a bunch of payroll coming off at the end of this season, so they can afford to go over the usual for one year.
This probably does make it a lot more likely the bat is going to be someone like Bichette rather than Tucker though. He’s going to be a fair bit more expensive. Cease and Bo combined will likely end up costing around the same amount Tucker will.
Bichette hopefully going to Cubs!!
Taxes are higher in Ontario and in NYC where he will be playing 70% of his games than in California where he will still play a few games. He is not saving money on taxes.
Im sure with the newly elected buffoon in NY taxes will out do California ‘s After all NOTHING is FREE.
Job isn’t finished vibe? Love how they are being aggressive. Good for baseball.
raz – They recognize when the window is open, and unlike the Orioles they aren’t gonna waste the opportunity.
They also have a ton of revenue being Canadas team and being backed by Rogers so of course they should be a top 10 spender
sad – Yes they definitely “should”, however sometimes when corporations are in charge they tend to go cheap because their first priority is not to fans but to shareholders.
We kinda learned that in Boston with FSG, unfortunately.
That is 100% right that’s why mookie and bogaerts and devers aren’t in Boston anymore
FSG should be able to spend much more but they don’t, same is somewhat true with Hal Steinbrenner even though they are 3rd in payroll
Fever, Dodger fan here but Jays outplayed them every facet of the game. It came down to the big hit which they never got when it counted. Helluva team and effort. Got nothing but respect to those guys. Would love to see another classic like this year for both squads.
“Jays outplayed them every facet of the game.”
Except one. The only one that counts. Wins.
They would of won it in game 6 if a runner on 3B would of took one more step of a lead.. He would have been safe at HP
Now that’s championship caliber baseball.
But is the roof closed?
Great to see. Jays reinforcing position as class of division
Exactly the opposite. They just locked so much money into a #4 sp that they’ve all but guaranteed they’ve lost ground to the rest of the division. The entire AL East is rejoicing right now
I seriously doubt the rest of the division is rejoicing.
They aren’t trembling either.
You’re such a joke-
You’ve got to be kidding !!!
The Jays are one of the richest franchises in baseball , that’s why we’re shaking up the division
We love how you think ❤️
lol That contract will not end well
Correct, the Jays owner also owns 75% of the hockey Maple Leafs, the NBA Raptors, TFC soccer club, Toronto Argonauts CFL football, and Toronto Marlies (American Hockey League), and apparently have an option to buy the other 25% in 2026. Own TV networks, radio networks, etc. They want to win.
He’s durable, strikes out a lot of batters and is about to have the best defense hes ever had in the majors playing behind him. This is a great signing.
Not to mention the pitcher whisper in Pete Walker.
That’s how I’m leaning. Cease was great in 2024. Fantastic really. Hoping he gets back to those numbers.
Not my money…Sign everyone!!
They get their money from you don’t they?
#4sp? I’ll have what you’re smoking..
I don’t see how this comment could possibly age poorly
Re-sign Bo and a couple of good relievers and let’s get ready for spring
Somebody is jealous that their team didn’t get him.
C’mon, #4? I’m not a big fan of this signing – too many years and too high AAV – but Cease is pretty clearly a solid #2-3. I don’t think it ages well, and I question how it impacts the rest of their offseason, but Cease is a good pitcher and I’m not looking forward to the Sox having to face him several times a year for the next few seasons at least.
What a joke of a comment smh
Wow..Grave overpay. Enjoy 2 good games out of every 8
Fans of every team who didnt get the guy always say stuff like this lol maybe next time big guy. Jays mean business
When the fans who actually watched him pitch every fifth day last year aren’t sad to see him go it should be a red flag my guy
Past is the past my dude. Future is now! Jays World Series or bust!
I’m a Padres fan. I lived it for 2 years
Cease wasn’t the best putcher on the padres last year even though most of the starring rotation was hurt. 200 mil is a big risk
Jesus $210mil?
How long before this becomes a very disappointing contract? 2 yrs? 3?
Generally speaking it’s usually the second after it’s signed
This Jays regime doesn’t spend bad money on pitchers in FA. Ryu could be considered a good signing as it showed they were out of a rebuild and pitched well at the start. Other than him the last one I can think of that was a bad signing was going way back to BJ
BigDaddy-You’r e a Jay’s fan yo’u’re blind
Wow Awesome for jays fans
The stove it’s starting early this year.
Is he officially on a flight to Toronto yet?
If not, I don’t believe it
This has been done to death, less funny every time the jays break out the wallet.
30 million? Reliable and good strikeout ability but not dominant enough for that contract
It’s Toronto and deferrals so not really 30m.
Love TOR going for it, but man that has potential to be a bad deal if it’s 210MM USD.
If it is 210MM USD, then the price for good pitching has taken another big leap and I’m not too upset about Gray anymore.
It’s always USD, no contracts would ever be in CAD
It’s 210 for Toronto and has deferrals allegedly. If NY ATL Texas Florida signed him the prices would likely be all different.
What does that even mean AI
Means what I said
Please cite another time in the history of baseball when a contract wasn’t in USD.
If it’s 210 million ¥en then it’s a bargain
Why would you have been upset about Gray? The Red Sox are only paying him $21 million.
Well, despite Cease having some disparity in his numbers from year-to-year, I think this is a good signing. Blue Jays were already a good team (obviously), but this is certainly being aggressive in the right area. Nice job, Blue Jays.
I tend to look at durability and starts a season first when I look at a starting pitcher before I look at W-L, ERA, K/9 and BB/9 kind of numbers. He has age on his side but I’m okay with Red Sox trading for Gray over trying to sign Cease. Would’ve been nice to have both but one is better than somebody else getting them both.
Everyone has some disparity. Cease has been pretty consistent so not seeing anything out of the ordinary.
7 years and he’s 7 games over .500, last few years era over 4 and that gets $30m per?!? Skenes and Skubal are dancing in the street.
GMs don’t really sign guys based on win loss records or even ERA these days. There are a lot of better indicators on whether a player will do well going forward than those two stats.
Holy overpay Batman
Not at all
It is. He gets a lot of Ks and has been durable. But he also gets absolutely lit up, all the time. Plus you are paying for a year plus of the inevitable TJ.
Out of 32 games only 4 did he give up more than 4 runs. We have completely different definitions of all the time.
Wow that’s cheap
Hilarious
Can’t see TOR signing Tucker or Bichette after giving Cease $210M.
Zero chance they would do this if they had no money to sign a batter.
Maybe not Tucker but def bo
Disagree. I expected 2 big contracts this offseason. The problem is the second big contract means choosing between bichette, outfield, and closer. Not to mention more depth in the ptching.
They could probably match up with the cardinals to try and get remero and Donovan. Still have money to sign bichette.
Pee buster olney of espn you should think of the blue jays like the Yankees, Mets or dodgers
They are definitely signing Bo. Hell they would have given this directly to Bo if it was 1 or the other. Tucker makes less sense and more money.
Blue Jays better be making another signing for a big bat to justify this massive contract. You go all-in all the way.
Watch and listen because Bichette is next!!
We’re jumping our payroll closer to the Yankees …
Last year Dodgers $450 million with no is deferred, and the Jays were $242M, and we forced a game 7 in extras… This is just the start of a dynasty 💋💋
The Cease contract will replace the Gausman contract next year. They have money to spend.
The next year’s signing will replace Gausman. Cease and Bieber replaces Scherzer and Bassitt.
People keep saying that, but this isn’t a usual off-season for them. They made a ton of money on that World series run and the plan is to put it all back into the team. They have a bunch of money coming off the books after this season, so they can afford to run a high payroll for one year.
Their owners are also Rogers, who own the main RNSs in Canada. They made a killing off the World Series run last year. The ratings were through the roof. I’m guessing the GM and the president sold them on the idea of round two on that.
Their attendance will likely be a lot higher this year overall as well. They didn’t really get going until the middle of the year last season. When the Blue Jays are good, the stands usually fill up.
JayFan- You’re Joyful homerism is beyond Cute.
I’m just telling you guys what’s been reported by the media (other than the attendance part, that’s just my prediction based on past years after a deep playoff run).
So will the cost of a ticket said the owners of a Canadian MLB team.
Definitely too rich of a contract, but it might have been necessary to get him over the border. I thought they would put this type of overpay towards Imai.
Yeah….just think of all the time he will be spending in line at Customs….
Most people are going to factor in taxes cost of living location in where they work. Toronto will have to pay more more often.
At least the Blue Jays are trying to win! John Henry must be having a heart attack!
By spending mega dollars on a #4 starter? He was 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA. They got marginally better, but made it a hell of a lot less likely to get one of their $300m targets. Gag.
Lets wait and see if Bo re-signs before we say “they wont get bo because of this”. I see no correlation between the two.
If you’re going to put down this contract you better be able to go beyond record and era man
Cease is a #4 starter in odd years and a Cy Young contender in even years. It’s a big expensive gamble, but it certainly has a potential payoff. They’re believing more in his FIP than his ERA, which is perhaps somewhat justified with an elite defense.
I guess with the jays D they hope his results will be closer to his underline metrics, jays were first in dwar in 25, padres were 20th
More like TWO great years and every other season is a back end innings eater.
Just two CAREER seasons under a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
In his last 5 seasons he has a 3.72 era, 1106 k’s, 20.6 WAR, and a 3.65 FIP.
Is he a bonafide ace? No. Is he a reliable high impact picture with top of the rotation stuff? Yes.
With the jays D, he should be fine and by year 6 or 7 who cares
Could he be a healthier Blake Snell without a single CY Young Award and from the right side instead of left side?
That’s BIG.
Well I guess that takes Imai off the table for Toronto now.
Man that’s a lot for a 30 year old coming off a below league average season.
Too funny think players live year around in the city, that they play in when in reality they don’t, few players stay in the state, they play in..
Almost all players on long term contracts live in the city they play in. That way they get to spend most of the year with their family.
Im sure Cease will have a better season next year than last but over $200 million over 7 years is a lot even if the underlying stats show he’s better than what the surface stats show. This is an ace level contract for a guy who wasn’t even an ace the year before.
Or it could be a sign that the market has moved and aces will get paid a lot more than this. Or, with the 7 year contract and deferrals beyond that, it’s a bet on high inflation and devaluation of the US dollar.
All good points. As much as I wanted the Padres to keep one of their big arms, mainly King, this kind of shows how the market for pitching ain’t going to be cheap. But I rather not watch 7 years of Dylan Cease being inconsistent so have fun Blue Jays fans
Good deal for blue jays
Wow !!!!! Still need a Closer !
Wow. Good for the jays and their fans.
$30m a year for a 4 ERA pitcher lol, what a joke
As someone who has watched cease pitch he maybe the most frustrating to watch this side of first half snell.
He can literally dominate and then the wheels come off for a few batters. It just seems like it rinses and repeats over and over again.
He has pretty much Ceased to be a star pitcher so….
He got more money than Max Fried. Is that means Cease is better than Fried?
I think you could make a case for Cease being better but it wouldn’t be an easy case to make. But I also think they are both better than Blake Snell overall because they have been healthier than Snell with Cease being #1 in that area over them both.
Pretty strong starting staff.. at least seven or eight deep… Cease, Gausman, Bieber, Berrios, Yesavage, Lauer & Francis & Tiedeman waiting in the wings.. Very impressive starting staff…
Happy travels, Dylan. Thanks for the no-hitter.
Damn son
WHAT? Oh man Jays…best of luck with that. He’s durable, but he’ll be driving you crazy with his inconsistency by year 3.
Already driving me crazy. So surprised by all the Jays fans who like this. Too much money for an average starter. Very disappointing way to see a quarter of a billion dollars spent as it definitely limits other moves. They’re marginally better.
They arent really that much better as a floor but a much higher ceiling and they replaced Max and Bassitt’s payroll with Cease. They still sign Bo…probably wont get a closer unless they swing a big prospect for star closer type trade. As a jays fan it is an overpay I think but nothing I can get angry about…at least not as angry as the WS plays…
Their ownership corporation has so much money that the cost really doesn’t matter. Well done Toronto. This is called flexing.
It does matter. They wont just keep throwing out $200M contracts. This was their big one. Gross.
Nah. This will be their second biggest one this offseason. Someone even reported it wasn’t completely out of the question that they signed both Tucker and Bo. Given that, I’m pretty sure they can afford Bichette and Cease.
for a 30 year old off a down year? LOL
I don’t like this move honestly. I have never been very high on Cease. Seems like too much money. But if the Jays wanted him, it may have took quite an overpay to get him to go to Canada. Maybe it will work out well for them though.
Seems like an overpay but what do I know.
Good signing for the Jays, though I was hoping that the Astros would get him. Seven years seems a bit long, but he is pretty durable.
30 mil a year is insane
F Valdez is much better and a lefty….how much is he going to get???
Jesus! $210M? What kind of tariff will be tacked on that?
I wont complain as a Jays fan but that seems a bit rich… as long as Bo is back and you get a closer its all gravy.
I’m a Padre fan,good luck to Dylan with the Blue Jays
Too many years, relatively mid level AAV, all things considered.
Congrats Blue Jays fans! Padres fan here. I hope Cease has a terrific bounce-back season for you guys! I like this signing as the Blue Jays are my second favorite team after the Padres. I love your hitters. I hope you guys re-sign Bichette. If not, my Padres could definitely use him. Really happy about Cease going to Toronto. What else do you guys need? Another SP or two?
Huge overpay
Has he had his Tommy John yet? He is a durable pitcher and rarely gets hurt but he also doesn’t seem to surpass 6 innings much and seems more around 5. Better load up on the bullpen now.
The issue is even when he is on he throws a ton of pitches. Guess that kind of comes with the territory because he is a strikeout pitcher. He does also lose command at some point almost every game.
High pitch count equals the low innings.
A little long in the tooth for that kind of deal. Hope it works out for both of em.
Crazy to give a pitcher 7 years. Or too many players for that matter.
Just glad AA didn’t overpay for him. Good for the Jays — not resting on their laurels. Bring back Bo!
His numbers make it a risky move for that amount of money, but all else equal it sure solidifies the Jays rotation. He is either a massively overpaid back end #4 starter worst case, or a solid #2/#3 in a good year. 200K’s and at least 160 innings each of the last 5 years is pretty solid durability. Wow that’s a lot of money for him though after a generally subpar year, in a pitchers park no less. An overpay, but almost everybody decent is nowadays,
Agree with a lot of folks. Huge overpay and just messed with the mkt for starting pitching. Jays may get a couple good years but Im guessing there will be a lot of bad or many so-so years.
It isn’t an overpay; there is no such thing in regards to free agency. If someone is willing to offer the money the Jays did, that’s the market.
Personally, not a Jays fan, but I like the signing for them. I think Cease will age fairly well. Plus, if it helps get them a World Series win, it’s worth every penny..
Lost ground by improving? While the rest of the division has virtually done nothing lol interesting take, bud
Tip of the cap to Cease’s agent.
Here’s hoping we can all get 7 years at $30M after kinda/sorta pooping the futon.
I think it’s an overpay by 1-2 years, which is not that big of a deal really. If this was a 5/150 or a 6/180 no one would really bat an eye.
Outside of that, the jays rotation for ‘26 is now
Dylan Cease
Kevin Gausman
Shane Beiber
Trey Yesavage
Jose Berrios
With Lauer, Bowden as depth, although I do wonder if this opens up a Berrios trade.
So bullpen is next for the Jays?
They need an infielder/bat and another late inning reliever, I’d love Williams
If they get Bo to a 6/130 and Williams to a 2 years then let’s get the season going
It was an overpay, but if all remain healthy we could argue the Jays starting pitching is better than the rotation this past October. Offseason signings continue.
Dodgers Blue Jays round 2.
Dodger would dream of facing Cease again in the playoffs.
Wow… that’s a lot of money for someone with an ERA+ under 100 twice in the last 3 seasons. Plus, he is entering his age 30 season. I can only imagine what this deal will look like when he’s 37.
Maybe the Jays’ brass are confident he can achieve the same success he had in 2022.
Jays are going to regret this pretty quickly
Let’s make sure he is on the plane to YYZ, and not “on the plane” to YYZ.
Say what you want about Cease’s high ERA and somewhat erratic results. He was still the top of the class of the available free agent starting pitchers.
Ranger Suarez or Framer would’ve been better options since the Blue Jays need a lefty starter. Cease is a decent #2, but this has the potential to be a disaster. Cease was a mental midget on the Padres and pitched poorly in just about every big game he pitched in these last 2 years.
Probably need to add a closer to the wish list, no?
Even Scherzer wants to return to Toronto!!!
It’s funny how those who play in Toronto love it there, love the fan base, and the whole experience!!!
Those who’ve never been there talk crap!!?
Wait till we steal the American pastime and make it truly Canadian!!!
Even Hal “Yankees owner” says the blue Jays are a great franchise and one that has an impressive system!!
Please don’t do this
And the opportunity to play in a baseball centre!
You would have to factor in the really long lineups at Canada Customs, and having to convert your money into C$. (It’s a real pain getting $1.25 back for every $ given)
Cant wait for Canadian fans to learn the rules!
$30M AAV doesn’t quite get you what it used to, does it? Though honestly I don’t think this is prohibitively expensive and might just be what $30M gets you on the market these days.
Compare it to the contracts of Verlander, Wheeler, DeGrom, Cole, etc. (and regardless of if those were “good” or “bad” contracts, it’s what the market gave them), and this actually might look OK in a few years, especially if you believe in his FIP and underlying peripherals being more predictive. Going seven years hurts, but going into his age-30 season he has a good argument for it.
That’s a big contract. It takes him off the market for Boston(thank god). Does this mean they won’t pay Bo?
I doubt it. For the last few years the Jays have tried making big FA splashes. Unless someone has heard otherwise feel free to correct me, I imagine ownership is fine with opening the wallet if it means another shot at the WS. My guess is they wouldn’t have made a big offer to Cease if it was a choice between him and Bichette. I also have to wonder if this signing just makes it easier to show Bichette the Jays plan on being serious for the next several years.
Money isn’t real. What a terrible signing
OMG deferrals? So unfair!!!!
Blue Jays are ruining the game!!!
Another ex White SOX Pitcher signs for big bucks. .We know how to get great pitchers we just don’t know how to keep great pitchers.
Saw a headline. Blue Jays land an ace pitcher. Same pitcher had a 4.55 era last year.
Only his ERA is bad?
How about only TWO career seasons of a WHIP below 1.24?
How about his PUTRID playoff track record.
Pros: he takes the ball and strikes guys out.
Cons: everything else.
Congrats Jays organization and fans !!!! Following up world series appearance with a huge signing …. clearly going all in . Good luck except when playing my Yankees 😜
C I don’t hate it. Kinda like it. In Toronto $ it’s a fair contract and a good gamble. Buying pitching is so risky but they almost won the world series so you have to try again if for no other reason to keep that attendance coming.
Saves on income taxes too?
For all of the folks saying he wasn’t going to get a huge contract, well here it is.
Am I glad my team (SD) didn’t give it to him – oh yes, but to say some team wasn’t going to give it was pure denial of current state of affairs for the value of a DC over the life of his career – sure he had a high era last year but those that know, look at his stats over last 5 years and find that he ranks in top 5 (or better) across all of mlb pitching.
79th in ERA and 32nd in FIP.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
A bold move. It seems like an overpay in years and dollars. If they win a ring good move, if not by 2030 people will be dying to get his money off the books.
As a Padres fan I am so happy that Preller did not even try to sign Cease back. He was frustrating to watch pitch and his struggles against LHB because he refused to adjust his sequencing and pitch type for them drove me nuts. Good luck to him in Toronto and the Al East.
I can’t even fathom what Skenes will get paid when his time comes.
It will be 4 years from now and the AAV will start with a 4 or higher. At 27 he might get 11 or 12 years.
Interesting. Nice to see the Jays staying aggressive. But the big question mark for him would be his playoff experience. Four starts, only one was good. Also, just an interesting note, take it as “sour grapes” if you want. Career stats v. Bos, NY, TB… not very good.
I was hoping my O’s would be in on him but at that price I can understand not going all in. Though at some point we’ll have to open the checkbook for someone. Cease certainly has amazing stuff, not the greatest control over it though. Good for him for getting that payday and for a team that was literally a handful of plays from being World Series Champs as well.
The GMs should be coming here for player evaluations. Everybody here knows a whole lot more about what players are worth than the people who are spending the money.
The Dodgers who paid $60 million for 29 starts from Glasnow and Snell in 2025?
Fangraphs #3 on their free agent tracker off the board.
This is a terrible contract! What the Hell were the Jays thinking??? Frontline starter money for a second tier pitcher? This is ruining the market for pitchers who actually deserve it!
Frontline starter money is now ~$40M
A’s and Red Sox are my teams. I’m just glad he didn’t sign with Dodgers or Yankees. 🙂
Dodgers are glad he didnt sign with the Dodgers…
Since his no hitter in mid 2024 something happened to cease. He finished 2024 poorly. He was owned in playoffs in 2024. He was pretty dominant the first 2 times through the lineup in 2025. Horrible after. Sometimes horrible time and a half through the lineup.
Lots of ks. But when he loses it he has a really hard time fighting through and getting it back.
Maybe a change of scenery and some offense support early in games will help him keep from feeling like he can’t give up a run or two and lose. Will definitely benefit from a better offense.
A million a start. King is better if his injuries were flukes.
Padres are gonna be an 85-90 win team this year unless the hitters they are paying mega to hit like they are being paid
Cease had 4.7 runs per game of support. That was not the issue.
Cease will love the positive defensive impact on his ERA, as long as there aren’t any more major changes to the guys behind him. Considering Bo is most likely out the door at least the Jays proved while he was hurt last year they could provide top shelf defensive support. Gausman is up after next year so the investment long term is critical. No point in giving Vlad lifetime deal and not have solid starters throughout. Good signing. Maybe expensive but he was getting that somewhere and im glad it was Toronto who got him.
Haha. He was not getting that elsewhere. What you have here is a classic early off-season overpay. They could have gotten him for this amount any time, and certainly for less as time went by. Lucky lucky man.
That’s an overpay for a #3-4 starter,,,, King is the better pitcher imho. Cant wait to face Cease in the playoffs.
EVERYONE; No way can the Blue Jays hand out a worse contract than the Santander deal from last year.
BLUE JAYS: Challenge accepted!!!
Nonsense! Santander was a brutal signing, this one isn’t. Santander had one big season and foolishly they signed him.
Cease has been steady since entering the league other than the ERA. All the other stats on him show his consistency. 7years is a little long maybe but year 7 he is 37yrs old not 42.
As a brewers fan, I’m happy he didn’t sign with the cubs. Not that they could afford him or anything
What a silly contract for an inconsistent guy like Cease.
Toronto was clearly desperate not to get Ohtani’d again.
Other than his ERA. He is actually quite consistent across the board
Teams value peripheral and radar gun readings more than ERA. Many fans and writers default to ERA as the basis of their valuations.
Lots of money for inconsistency. Well, there’s the consistency that he has had mediocre odd years seasons.
The dodgers are paying the deferrals on the contract to have another team in the deferral club
That is a long time and alot of money for a guy who’s posted 4.5+ era’s in 2 of the last 3yrs
Ouch $30 million a year! Yikes
Good to see the Blue Jays mean business! Nice move 👍
Madness
What does this mean for Bichette? If they pay Bo too they are WAY up there into the tax.
Who cares, Roger’s has plenty of money, let them spend it on the Jays!!!
Not necessarily. The Jays have $63.7 million coming off the books next winter with Springer, Gausman, and Bieber and could have another $24.7 if Berrios opts out. They could back load a deal for Bichette and still be fine
Money means nothing, Jays can sign Bo, Tucker and Diaz and will in my mind!!! Jays are the 2026 Dodgers, can not wait to here what the differal’s are!!!
Very deep pockets and this is what being so close to winning it all will do. Signing Bichette just became easier because of the Cease signing
LET’S GET THIS PARTY STARTED!!
The Toronto deferrals
He met the mustache requirement.
This really sounds like a risky contract. I’ll be generous and say that Cease regular FIP stats is the best reflection of what he really is. A strong no.3 or a decent no.2
Would you really give that pitcher a 7yr
-$210 million that takes him into his age 37 season? I know his durability has a lot of value also, but that’s a double edged sword. Thats a whole lot of innings on that arm.
I know mlb salaries are on the rise but so is starters volatility and everyone knows about it. There’s hardly a starter that doesn’t eventually have TJ surgery.
Darn it all, the one FA pitcher i did not have coming to the Jays in the contest, well i guess it is okay as i love the rotation for 2026, still need to get Diaz and Bo or Tucker!!!!
SPEND THAT MONEY ROGERS!!!
GO JAYS GO!!!
FEAR THE TRUE NORTH!!!
Omg deferrals!!! I’m so outraged! Oh wait it’s not the Dodgers so I don’t care
Is Cease on a airplane headed to Toronto? & years? Sounds like a lot for a SP.. Good luck with that. We already know the Baseball Gods don’t like the Jay’s.. Those plays in the WS……
Also, did the blue jays not have access to his stats or footage of his pitching last year? This is a comical overpay for a mediocre pitcher
He is far from mediocre. He had one bad year. The contract, however, is worrisome if this past year becomes a trend. Seven years is a long time
His FIP last year was 3.56, so even last year wasn’t really a bad year
Im here for the Dodger haters cause this deal has deferrals.
It’s been available to everyone this whole time
Who knew??? lol
overpay
Someone is smoking wicked stuff.
I can’t wait for Jed Hoyer to talk about how the Cubs made a competitive run at Cease only to find out next year the offer was 5/125MM and was his 5th best offer.
I like Dylan Cease a lot but I am not sure I like this for the Jays. That’s a big deal and who knows if he will hold up as a quality starter with that big contract. They would have been better off giving him 2 or 3 years
A lot of money for a guy with wildly inconsistent year-to-year production.
I think this tells us that the Jays and Roger’s are saying we are all in!!! I expect to hear of a Diaz signing soon followed by a Bo or Tucker signing!!!
GO JAYS GO!!!
FEAR THE TRUE NORTH!!!
Amen brother
Talk about overpay
Time will tell but doubtful with his track record and only being 30yrs old
Good move for the Jays. It’s obviously a long term risk, but as close as they were they gotta take those risks. He had a rough era but his FiP, and other metrics held up fine. And he’s been a lock for 30+ starts and 200Ks his entire career. I’m a Mets fan but this is what you’re supposed to do when you fall just short of a World Series.
“The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation — a selection after the fourth round next summer.”
K, help me out here. The Jays will surrender three picks in the draft, their second and fifth highest selections, and then a pick after the fourth round, right? The post fourth round pick goes to the Padres. What happens to the second and fifth highest picks? Do the Jays just forfeit those draft picks, and every other team moves up a slot in that round?
The 9 er he allowed in Sacramento really hurt his overall ERA.
Jesus man, which deal was worse a 36 yr old Gray to the Red Sox or a 7 yr fleas that Boras took the Blue Jays for.
Boras remains the master.
This is a great signing for Toronto (says the other AL East teams). Glad they got him.
I’d say that slams the door for Bichette in Toronto.
Dude’s getting Scherzer money.
Having lived through Strasburg, I’m not so sure giving 7 years at $30 million is a wise long term idea even if no previous injury issues. Time will tell.
Starting pitching is the most valuable asset in baseball. This contract is a huge risk, but it’s also just what the market is for starting pitching. If you want a potential frontline starter in free agency, you have to pay. The Blue Jays have a window to win a World Series, cease has frontline upside, I have no issue with this deal even if the number might surprise some people.
Unreal, the amount of moronic takes on this site smh
Overpay
Everybody else better get off their butts!
OnLy ThE dOdGeRs ArE aLlOwEd To UsE dEfErRaLs!!! !!
Great move for Toronto!
Now I don’t have to worry about Atl trying to sign him!
For what it’s worth his expected ERA from Statcast was 3.46 last season. From what I recall, the Padres defense wasn’t anything to write home about, so he could have been pretty unlucky with his ERA.
That being said, given he’s a fly ball pitcher, he’s going to miss Petco.
Lotta miles on that arm
7 years is a lot for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30. But it still has the Jays as a top 3 rotation in the AL.
Wow what a signing and better yet what a starting pitching staff! As long as they get Bichette re-signed, and a reliever or two, they could be the team to beat in ’26
I think after today, re-signing Bo just became a heck of a lot easier.
As a Mariners fan, Deals like the one just given to Cease are going to make it very hard for Seattle to sign both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby to extensions in the future..
I would’ve gone only 6 years guaranteed. An option for a 7th year with incentives. Like finishing with at least 3 years of at least 130 innings pitched. In his 7 year career he’s averaged 145 innings pitched.
Is that Bo’s money?
I’m very 50-50 on this move. Seems like the rest of the baseball community feels the same.
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