Summary

⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

・According to LMC Automotive's report as of Q4 2021, global production (excluding medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles) is estimated to have increased 2% y/y to 76.42 million units in 2021. The production recovery that was expected at the beginning of the year was dampened by the spread of the Delta variant coronavirus and semiconductor shortages, and global production was only slightly higher than the actual level in 2020.

・Although the impact of the procurement crisis is expected to continue in 2022, it is expected to be much less severe than in 2021, and global production is expected to increase to the level of 86 million units as companies focus on recovery production to resolve inventory shortages. In addition, global production is expected to increase to over 93 million units in 2023 as the parts procurement network normalizes.

・Among the major groups, the Toyota Group has been able to keep the impact of parts shortages to a relatively low level, with global production of approximately 9.8 million units in 2021, far ahead second-place VW Group (less than 8 million units). In addition, the Toyota Group is expected to steadily recover its production in 2022 and beyond, and in 2023, it is expected to recover to pre-COVID levels ahead of other manufacturers, recording the highest production volume ever (over 11 million units).