Two critical events have changed everything since 2025, and the Islamic Republic appears dedicated to living in an alternate reality in which those events have not transpired. 

The American military buildup comes amid indirect negotiations with Iranian officials, in which "progress was made" on Tuesday in Geneva, a US official told The Post.

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that, since June 2025, factions within the Iranian regime are working to secure positions of influence to shape future policies.

In August 2024, the Lebanese government had tasked the military with drafting and implementing a plan to bring all armed groups' weapons under state control.

Ellie Borhan, an Iranian activist who founded the London-based Stage of Freedom group, told The Post that protesting against the regime, even in the diaspora, has become unsafe.

“Progress was made, but there are still a lot of details to discuss," said the official, who declined to be identified, detailing discussions in Geneva.

Israel, with the help of Syria's new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, has succeeded at blocking much of the cross-border Lebanon-Syria weapons smuggling activities.

Iran’s supreme leader threatened US military power, rejected limits on Iran’s missile program, and criticized Washington after US aircraft carriers were sent to the region.

According to Fars, the IRGC Navy commander declared that, "The weapon that reaches the battlefield on the day of war is different from what is displayed in exercises."

UKMTO added that a vessel was approached and hailed by a white skiff with five persons on board, and that this was followed by an exchange of small-arms fire.