International macro and finance
In an increasingly globalised world, no economic area is immune to the economic forces shaping global markets. The ECB needs to stay abreast of global developments relevant to monetary policy and financial stability, including trends in global output and trade, capital flows, exchange rates, commodity prices and macroeconomic policy, so that it can gauge and anticipate their effects on the euro area economy. It also needs to understand the cross-border spillover effects of monetary policy, as well as trends related to the international role of the euro and the international monetary system.
Monetary policy and financial stability in a globalised world
General area of interest: the impact of global market developments and trends in global financial and trade integration on monetary policy and financial stability.
Selected areas of focus:
- characterisation of the global spillover and spillback effects of monetary policy
- understanding financial globalisation, the global financial cycle and global funding in major currencies
- analysis of global capital markets, exchange rate markets and commodity markets, as well as global financial stability and risk identification
- relationship between globalisation and inflation dynamics, in particular the role of commodity prices and China
- implications of exchange rate pass-through for monetary policy
International monetary system and global policy analysis
General area of interest: how attractive is the euro globally? What are the factors that determine its international role and why do they matter for the euro area? How do changes in the international monetary system affect the environment of central banks?
Selected areas of focus:
- analysing the international role of currencies
- understanding the international implications of digital currencies
- relationship between global imbalances, global trade and exchange rate policies
- understanding capital flow management policies and the global financial safety net
Imbalances and export performance of the euro area
General area of interest: what are the main determinants of external imbalances and the trade performance of different euro area economies?
Selected areas of focus:
- determinants of gross trade and capital flows in the euro area, and between the euro area and the rest of the world
- main drivers of export performance among European firms
- exposure of European firms to external shocks
EMU in the global economy
General area of interest: provision of background research to inform and sharpen the ECB’s policy stance on global policy issues.
Selected areas of focus:
- role of the euro in a globalised economy
- characterisation of the prevailing view of key global players and institutions regarding global policy issues, such as regulation of capital flows
- response and/or contribution of the ECB to these debates to best safeguard the interests of the euro area economy