Macroeconomic projections
Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.
Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.
They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).
September 2025At a glance
Inflation is expected to average 2.1% in 2025, before edging down to 1.7% in 2026 and then increasing to 1.9% in 2027. Core inflation should decline as wage pressures and services inflation moderate, and as the appreciation of the euro curbs goods inflation.
MoreGrowth is set to remain weak in the short term as tariffs and uncertainty take their toll. Over the medium term, as household incomes rise, financing conditions ease and foreign demand rebounds, growth should pick up again to 1.3% in 2027.
MoreFull report
The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.
Read the reportCurrent and past projections
Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.
All our macroeconomic projectionsAnalyse the results
WANT TO LEARN MORE?
CHECK OUT OUR PREVIOUS RELEASES