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Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
 

Earth System Dynamics 

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Open accessPublic peer reviewArticle level metricsModerate APCs
ESD cover
Open accessPublic peer reviewArticle level metricsModerate APCsFinancial support
Chief editors: Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, Axel Kleidon & Gabriele Messori
eISSN: ESD2190-4987, ESDD2190-4995

Earth System Dynamics (ESD) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and public discussion of studies that take an interdisciplinary perspective on the functioning of the Earth system and global change. The overall behaviour of the Earth system is strongly shaped by the interactions among its various component systems, such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, oceans, pedosphere, and the lithosphere, but also by life and increasingly by human activity. ESD solicits contributions that investigate these various interactions and the underlying mechanisms, ways how these can be conceptualized, modelled, and quantified, predictions of the overall system behaviour to global changes, and the impacts for its habitability, humanity, and the future functioning of the Earth system in the Anthropocene.

Journal metrics

ESD is indexed in the Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, etc. We refrain from displaying the journal metrics prominently on the landing page since citation metrics used in isolation do not describe importance, impact, or quality of a journal. However, these metrics can be found on thejournal metrics page.

Highlight articles

28 Mar 2025
Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025
Short summaryChief editor
Short summary
AI is impacting science, providing key data insights, but most algorithms are statistical requiring cautious "out-of-sample" extrapolation. Yet climate research concerns predicting future climatic states. We consider a new method of AI-led equation discovery. Equations offer process interpretation and more robust predictions. We recommend this method for climate analysis, suggesting illustrative application to atmospheric convection, land–atmosphere CO2 flux, and global ocean circulation models.
Chief editor
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often criticised for being a "black-box" approach that provides no physical insights into the data being analysed. Very recently, a new branch of AI has emerged, called “AI-led equation discovery”. As the name suggests, it aims to reveal process equations underlying the data. This Perspective Article offers a path to align AI methods with climate research, with a focus on the use of AI-led equation discovery in support of Earth System Models.
28 Nov 2024
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China
Yasir Latif, Kaiyu Fan, Geli Wang, and Milan Paluš
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1509–1526,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024, 2024
Short summaryChief editor
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a gigantic natural orchestra playing with the temperature of Pacific waters and influencing air temperature and rainfall worldwide. Naturally, the “loudness” or amplitude of ENSO has effects on climate; however, consonance of its various tones, or phases of different ENSO oscillatory components, can exert causal effects on rainfall in some areas in China. In different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics can predict rainfall amounts.
Chief editor
Precipitation predictability is a complex subject, given the spatiotemporal complexity of the relevant mechanisms and interactions. This paper provides a clear and relevant contribution on the topic of precipitation predictability, grounded in causal inference approaches. Although the focus of the study is regional, the methodology is flexible and can serve as working example for guiding further research on the topic in other geographical domains.
30 Oct 2024
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Andrew D. King, Tilo Ziehn, Matthew Chamberlain, Alexander R. Borowiak, Josephine R. Brown, Liam Cassidy, Andrea J. Dittus, Michael Grose, Nicola Maher, Seungmok Paik, Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, and Aditya Sengupta
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1353–1383,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024, 2024
Short summaryChief editor
Short summary
Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction.
Chief editor
The paper reveals previously-unexplored behaviours of the Earth system and illustrates how some impacts of climate change will continue to increase even after emissions become net zero. These results highlight the urgency of both achieving net zero emissions and of conducting long-term adaptation planning.
18 Oct 2024
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summaryChief editor
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Chief editor
This paper represents a community effort at identifying the critical needs of Earth system modeling. This is essential for the upcoming AR7 and UNFCCC second stocktake.
15 Oct 2024
Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models
Abigail Snyder, Noah Prime, Claudia Tebaldi, and Kalyn Dorheim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1301–1318,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024, 2024
Short summaryChief editor
Short summary
From running climate models to using their outputs to identify impacts, modeling the integrated human–Earth system is expensive. This work presents a method to identify a smaller subset of models from the full set that preserves the uncertainty characteristics of the full set. This results in a smaller number of runs that an impact modeler can use to assess how uncertainty propagates from the Earth to the human system, while still capturing the range of outcomes provided by climate models.
Chief editor
Earth System Models (ESMs) are used as inputs in impact models to estimate future climate risks. Hence, accurately representing the entire spectrum of uncertainty in ESMs is vital for comprehending the future co-evolution of the coupled human-natural system. Numerous ESMs are part of the CMIP6 suite and it is impossible to incorporate all of them in impact modeling. This study will help in selecting a suitable subset of ESMs that will reduce computing costs while preserving the range of uncertainty.

More highlight articlesAll EGU highlight articles

Recent papers

03 Apr 2025
Changes in extreme precipitation patterns over the Greater Antilles and teleconnection with large-scale sea surface temperature
Carlo Destouches, Arona Diedhiou, Sandrine Anquetin, Benoit Hingray, Armand Pierre, Dominique Boisson, and Adermus Joseph
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 497–512,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-497-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work provides a relevant analysis of changes in extreme precipitation over the Caribbean and their link with warming in different ocean basins. It also improves our understanding of the impact of warming on extreme precipitation events, which can cause devastating damage to economic sectors such as agriculture, biodiversity, health, and energy.
03 Apr 2025
An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change
John D. Jakeman, Mauro Perego, D. Thomas Seidl, Tucker A. Hartland, Trevor R. Hillebrand, Matthew J. Hoffman, and Stephen F. Price
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 513–544,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-513-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigated the computational benefits of using multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. Despite some models being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields, using multiple models reduced the error in the estimated statistics by over an order of magnitude when compared to an approach that only used a single accurate model.
28 Mar 2025
| Highlight paper
Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences
Chris Huntingford, Andrew J. Nicoll, Cornelia Klein, and Jawairia A. Ahmad
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 475–495,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-475-2025, 2025
Short summaryChief editor
Short summary
AI is impacting science, providing key data insights, but most algorithms are statistical requiring cautious "out-of-sample" extrapolation. Yet climate research concerns predicting future climatic states. We consider a new method of AI-led equation discovery. Equations offer process interpretation and more robust predictions. We recommend this method for climate analysis, suggesting illustrative application to atmospheric convection, land–atmosphere CO2 flux, and global ocean circulation models.
Chief editor
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often criticised for being a "black-box" approach that provides no physical insights into the data being analysed. Very recently, a new branch of AI has emerged, called “AI-led equation discovery”. As the name suggests, it aims to reveal process equations underlying the data. This Perspective Article offers a path to align AI methods with climate research, with a focus on the use of AI-led equation discovery in support of Earth System Models.
28 Mar 2025
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: Development and application to the European domain
Manon Maisonnier, Maoyuan Feng, David Bastviken, Sandra Arndt, Ronny Lauerwald, Aidin Jabbari, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Murray D. MacKay, Zeli Tan, Wim Thiery, and Pierre Regnier
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1306, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD(discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
A new process-based modelling framework, FLaMe v1.0 (Fluxes ofLakeMethane version 1.0), is developed to simulate methane (CH4) emissions from lakes at large scales. FLaMe couples the dynamics of organic carbon, oxygen and methane in lakes and rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach for the simulation of CH4 emissions across a large number of lakes. The model evaluation suggests that FLaMe captures the sub-annual and spatial variability of CH4 emissions well.
28 Mar 2025
Vegetation and fire regimes in the Neotropics over the last 21,000 years
Thomas Kenji Akabane, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Paulo Eduardo De Oliveira, Jennifer Watling, Ana Carolina Carnaval, Vincent Hanquiez, Dailson José Bertassoli Jr., Thaís Aparecida Silva, Marília H. Shimizu, and Anne-Laure Daniau
EGUsphere,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1424, 2025
Preprint under review for ESD(discussion: open, 0 comments)
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetation and fire regimes have changed over the last 21,000 years. Here, we compile pollen and charcoal records from the Neotropics to assess tree cover and fire activity trajectories and identify their main controls. We found that landscapes were shaped by an interplay of temperature, atmospheric CO2, precipitation, vegetation-fire feedback, and human impacts. These drivers varied in importance across regions and time periods, leading to distinct responses under different boundary conditions.

News

13 Mar 2025New agreement between California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications

We are delighted to announce a new agreement between the California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications. The University of California will cover 50% of article processing charges (APCs) for manuscripts affiliated with any of their research units. Read more.

13 Mar 2025New agreement between California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications

We are delighted to announce a new agreement between the California Digital Library and Copernicus Publications. The University of California will cover 50% of article processing charges (APCs) for manuscripts affiliated with any of their research units. Read more.

12 Mar 2025Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market

Early warning signals used to detect tipping points are tested on a dataset of daily views of online electric vehicle (EV) adverts. The attention given to EV adverts spikes upwards after specific events before returning to normality more slowly over time. Read more.

12 Mar 2025Early opportunity signals of a tipping point in the UK's second-hand electric vehicle market

Early warning signals used to detect tipping points are tested on a dataset of daily views of online electric vehicle (EV) adverts. The attention given to EV adverts spikes upwards after specific events before returning to normality more slowly over time. Read more.

06 Mar 2025Get involved, become a referee, and help shape ESD's community publication output

We are pleased to announce that a new referee application form is now available. This means that if you are interested in contributing to the peer-review process and supporting high-quality scientific publishing in your community then you can apply today to become a referee. Your expertise can make a difference. Visit the online formhere to learn more and join our reviewer community.

06 Mar 2025Get involved, become a referee, and help shape ESD's community publication output

We are pleased to announce that a new referee application form is now available. This means that if you are interested in contributing to the peer-review process and supporting high-quality scientific publishing in your community then you can apply today to become a referee. Your expertise can make a difference. Visit the online formhere to learn more and join our reviewer community.

Notice on the current situation in Ukraine

To show our support for Ukraine, all fees for papers from authors (first or corresponding authors) affiliated toUkrainian institutions are automatically waived, regardless if these papers are co-authored by scientists affiliated to Russian and/or Belarusian institutions. The only exception will be if the corresponding author or first contact (contractual partner of Copernicus) are from a Russian and/or Belarusian institution, in that case the APCs are not waived.

In accordance with current European restrictions, Copernicus Publications does not step into business relations with and issue APC-invoices (articles processing charges) toRussian and Belarusian institutions. The peer-review process and scientific exchange of our journals including preprint posting is not affected. However, these restrictions require that the first contact (contractual partner of Copernicus) has an affiliation and invoice address outside Russia or Belarus.


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