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  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    league logo
    #1
    +2395
    (56%)
    125-97-3 in Last 225 NFL Picks
    Picked: Nov 24 @ 2:14pm

    Analysis

    The Cowboys are coming off a big comeback win, and the market is adjusting too much based on that result. Yes, the team rallied late, and it's likely the offense has some success in this matchup after it found some against an Eagles unit that had been playing great. But I don't think the market realizes how well the Chiefs played against a top-tier Colts team, with the early fluke interception making the game closer than it should've been. The Chiefs outgained Indy 494 yards to 255 and 33 first downs to 10, putting them on a different class from the Eagles. Since the Eagles were laying 3 to 3.5 last week, shouldn't KC be laying more? I think the 4.5 lookahead was accurate.
  • expert headshot
    Will Brinson
    Big Oil
    league logo
    NFL
    KC @ DAL • Thu 4:30pm
    player headshot
    team logo
    R. Rice
    Under 6.5
    -116
    Receptions
    Picked: Nov 25 @ 12:14am

    Analysis

    This is primarily a play on what we expect (see: above) to be a less enthusiastic passing game than what's being expected as well as Rice's injury status. The star receiver is playing with a banged-up hamstring and he was flexing/stretching on the field Sunday after going down before contact on multiple receptions. Kansas City might very well need him to produce if the game turns into a shootout and/or they're trailing and this thing could be done at half given how much work he does near the line of scrimmage. If the Chiefs are controlling this game at all, I'd expect them to limit the number of snaps Rice sees. And that means less opportunities for receptions.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +133
    (63%)
    5-3 in Last 8 NFL Picks
    league logo
    NFL
    CIN @ BAL • Thu 8:20pm
    team logo
    BAL -6.5
    -115
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 24 @ 1:49pm

    Analysis

    Joe Burrow will return but surely be a bit rusty (and probably not super mobile), and he won't have Tee Higgins. Star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson remains out on defense. And these defenses couldn't be more different. Baltimore has won five straight and has the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense in that span. Cincinnati is allowing 32.7 PPG this season, third-worst by a team in the Super Bowl Era. Last 6.5 on our board, although maybe the Burrow news makes a few more appear.
  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +322
    (61%)
    11-7-2 in Last 20 NFL Picks
    Picked: Nov 24 @ 8:27pm

    Analysis

    Burrow and Chase are back, baby. Perhaps the league's best pass combo return -- QB Joe Burrow from injury rehab, WR Ja'Marr Chase from a spitting-related suspension. Their Cincinnati team is likely cropped out of the playoff picture, but the pair's return and the chance to spoil Thanksgiving night for the Ravens provides motivation. While Baltimore is on a roll, its offense lacks the dynamism of past teams, in no small part because QB Lamar Jackson deals with assorted minor injuries. His rush stats last Sunday -- seven carries, 11 yards -- suggest he is hestant to, as the announcers say, "use his legs." The Bengals have a habit of heating up down the stretch. They can light the fire big-time here.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    league logo
    #1
    +2395
    (56%)
    125-97-3 in Last 225 NFL Picks
    league logo
    NFL
    CIN @ BAL • Thu 8:20pm
    team logo
    team logo
    Under 52
    -110
    Over/Under
    Picked: Nov 24 @ 9:21pm

    Analysis

    Joe Burrow is set to return to action after a long layoff, but I wonder how much rust he'll have and he's not going to have Tee Higgins available. That's a shame as the Ravens defense is playing at an elite level, with only four offensive touchdowns allowed in their last five games. On the other side, the historically awful Bengals defense actually played well last week, holding the Patriots to one offensive TD. Lamar Jackson also hasn't looked right running the Baltimore offense in recent weeks, completing less than 60% of his passing in each of the last three weeks while throwing just one TD combined. These teams have a history of shootouts, but the state of both offenses has me liking the Under.

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