Abstract of the paper/presentation/speech at the International Scientific Conference “Economic and Social Effects of Conflicts on the Modern World” organized on May 23, 2024. Sources and impact of economic and financial crises on...
moreAbstract of the paper/presentation/speech at the International Scientific Conference “Economic and Social Effects of Conflicts on the Modern World” organized on May 23, 2024.
Sources and impact of economic and financial crises on socio-economic life in Poland
The impact of the major economic and financial crises that have occurred over the past few decades of time on socio-economic life in Poland has been exceptionally large. On the other hand, in terms of source factors, some of these factors occurred repeatedly such as central banks raising interest rates after keeping them at low levels for a long time, and stock market crashes that occurred at the beginning of developing crises. On the other hand, some economic and/or financial crises were caused in part by new root factors referred to as “black swans.” This type of situation occurred at the beginning of the developing pandemic economic crisis from March 2020 and the deep recession that occurred during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The research conducted shows that the impact of recent economic and financial crises, i.e. those that were global or international in nature and occurred in the current 21st century, on economies, financial markets and on the socio-economic lives of citizens was very high.
Besides, the research shows that for the recent economic and financial crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, the strong increase in inflation in 2021-2022, the energy crisis of 2022, the recession of the economy of the first half of 2023, the root factors were, among others, the overdeveloped state interventionism, including primarily the manual control of monetary and fiscal policy and the deregulation of financial markets, which has been going on since the 1970s. Economic state interventionism is usually undertaken as an anti-crisis and/or pro-development measure aimed at reducing the scale, level and probability of financial, economic crises, etc., but, on the other hand, often the aforementioned interventionist activity carried out within the framework of specific economic programs leads to escalation of risk levels and generates further crises.
In 2023, the scale of bankruptcies of companies and enterprises in the SME sector in Poland was the highest for many years. The economic downturn in 2023 was the result of the negative effects of interventionist measures taken as anti-crisis measures applied during previous economic and/or financial crises. An example is the anti-inflationary raising of interest rates by central banks implemented from late 2021 or early 2022. The purpose of tightening monetary policy was to curb the growth of inflation, but the result was an increase in the cost of money lent in the form of loans by commercial banks, a decrease in the creditworthiness of economic entities, a decline in investment and a deterioration in labor markets. Another effect of the aforementioned crises and/or the anti-crisis interventionist monetary and fiscal policies applied was an increase in the indebtedness of the state's public finance system.
In the perspective of the following years and decades of time, economic crises operating in different time frames will potentially develop:
1. In the relatively shorter term: the beginning of a new business cycle, inflation, monetary policy versus the situation in the capital markets, the risk of a potential stock market crash,
2. In the medium term: the low level of investment to date and the process of population aging, the problem of the growing debt of the state's public finance system,
3. in the long term: the developing global climate crisis, still increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the progressive process of climate change, global warming, the negative effects of climate change on the economy.
The research shows that in the future there will probably be a reoccurrence of some past crises, but the economic reality, however, may be different. In recent years, the importance of green transformation of the economy has been growing. In the future, developing crises of various kinds will intertwine and affect each other. Innovation and new technologies should help solve problems derived from crises.
In view of the above, it is therefore necessary to continue research in the problem of identifying the sources and determining the impact of economic and financial crises on socio-economic life, to diagnose the cyclically recurring processes operating during the said crises in order to develop the most appropriate system solutions, economic programs, instruments for the activation of economic activity, activation of innovation, counteracting the development of crises and implementing solutions that will result in increasing the macroeconomic stability of the economy while taking into account the issue of sustainable economic development, the implementation of sustainable development goals, the implementation of the principles of the green economy and closed loop economy, building a sustainable and emission-free economy.