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The Theory of Economic Crises examines the causes, dynamics, and consequences of economic downturns, focusing on factors such as market failures, financial instability, and systemic risks. It analyzes how these crises impact economies, societies, and institutions, and explores theoretical frameworks to understand their emergence and resolution.

This paper begins with a critical presentation of Kondratiev’s (1926) seminal paper on the question of the existence as well as his theoretical explanation of long cyclical fluctuations of the level of economic activity. Furthermore we...more

This paper begins with a critical presentation of Kondratiev’s (1926) seminal paper on the question of the existence as well as his theoretical explanation of long cyclical fluctuations of the level of economic activity. Furthermore we argue that a coherent explanation of long-run fluctuations can be based upon Marx’s argument in Capital III, whereby the falling long-run tendency of the rate of profit leads to a stagnant mass of net profits, which are associated with the onset of economic crisis. The paper concludes with a discussion of the similarities or differences and of the relative merits or weaknesses of Kondratiev’s and Marx’s views with respect to their visions of the long term evolution of the capitalist system.

Abstract of the paper/presentation/speech at the International Scientific Conference “Economic and Social Effects of Conflicts on the Modern World” organized on May 23, 2024. Sources and impact of economic and financial crises on...more

Abstract of the paper/presentation/speech at the International Scientific Conference “Economic and Social Effects of Conflicts on the Modern World” organized on May 23, 2024.
Sources and impact of economic and financial crises on socio-economic life in Poland
The impact of the major economic and financial crises that have occurred over the past few decades of time on socio-economic life in Poland has been exceptionally large. On the other hand, in terms of source factors, some of these factors occurred repeatedly such as central banks raising interest rates after keeping them at low levels for a long time, and stock market crashes that occurred at the beginning of developing crises. On the other hand, some economic and/or financial crises were caused in part by new root factors referred to as “black swans.” This type of situation occurred at the beginning of the developing pandemic economic crisis from March 2020 and the deep recession that occurred during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The research conducted shows that the impact of recent economic and financial crises, i.e. those that were global or international in nature and occurred in the current 21st century, on economies, financial markets and on the socio-economic lives of citizens was very high.
Besides, the research shows that for the recent economic and financial crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, the strong increase in inflation in 2021-2022, the energy crisis of 2022, the recession of the economy of the first half of 2023, the root factors were, among others, the overdeveloped state interventionism, including primarily the manual control of monetary and fiscal policy and the deregulation of financial markets, which has been going on since the 1970s. Economic state interventionism is usually undertaken as an anti-crisis and/or pro-development measure aimed at reducing the scale, level and probability of financial, economic crises, etc., but, on the other hand, often the aforementioned interventionist activity carried out within the framework of specific economic programs leads to escalation of risk levels and generates further crises.
In 2023, the scale of bankruptcies of companies and enterprises in the SME sector in Poland was the highest for many years. The economic downturn in 2023 was the result of the negative effects of interventionist measures taken as anti-crisis measures applied during previous economic and/or financial crises. An example is the anti-inflationary raising of interest rates by central banks implemented from late 2021 or early 2022. The purpose of tightening monetary policy was to curb the growth of inflation, but the result was an increase in the cost of money lent in the form of loans by commercial banks, a decrease in the creditworthiness of economic entities, a decline in investment and a deterioration in labor markets. Another effect of the aforementioned crises and/or the anti-crisis interventionist monetary and fiscal policies applied was an increase in the indebtedness of the state's public finance system.
In the perspective of the following years and decades of time, economic crises operating in different time frames will potentially develop:
1. In the relatively shorter term: the beginning of a new business cycle, inflation, monetary policy versus the situation in the capital markets, the risk of a potential stock market crash,
2. In the medium term: the low level of investment to date and the process of population aging, the problem of the growing debt of the state's public finance system,
3. in the long term: the developing global climate crisis, still increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the progressive process of climate change, global warming, the negative effects of climate change on the economy.
The research shows that in the future there will probably be a reoccurrence of some past crises, but the economic reality, however, may be different. In recent years, the importance of green transformation of the economy has been growing. In the future, developing crises of various kinds will intertwine and affect each other. Innovation and new technologies should help solve problems derived from crises.
In view of the above, it is therefore necessary to continue research in the problem of identifying the sources and determining the impact of economic and financial crises on socio-economic life, to diagnose the cyclically recurring processes operating during the said crises in order to develop the most appropriate system solutions, economic programs, instruments for the activation of economic activity, activation of innovation, counteracting the development of crises and implementing solutions that will result in increasing the macroeconomic stability of the economy while taking into account the issue of sustainable economic development, the implementation of sustainable development goals, the implementation of the principles of the green economy and closed loop economy, building a sustainable and emission-free economy.

The impact of the major economic and financial crises that have occurred over the past few decades of time on socio-economic life in Poland has been exceptionally large. On the other hand, in terms of source factors, some of these factors...more

The impact of the major economic and financial crises that have occurred over the past few decades of time on socio-economic life in Poland has been exceptionally large. On the other hand, in terms of source factors, some of these factors occurred repeatedly such as central banks raising interest rates after keeping them at low levels for a long time, and stock market crashes that occurred at the beginning of developing crises. On the other hand, some economic and/or financial crises were caused in part by new root factors referred to as “black swans.” This type of situation occurred at the beginning of the developing pandemic economic crisis from March 2020 and the deep recession that occurred during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The research conducted shows that the impact of recent economic and financial crises, i.e. those that were global or international in nature and occurred in the current 21st century, on economies, financial markets and on the socio-economic lives of citizens was very high.
Besides, the research shows that for the recent economic and financial crises, including the global financial crisis of 2008, the pandemic economic crisis of 2020, the strong increase in inflation in 2021-2022, the energy crisis of 2022, the recession of the economy of the first half of 2023, the root factors were, among others, the overdeveloped state interventionism, including primarily the manual control of monetary and fiscal policy and the deregulation of financial markets, which has been going on since the 1970s. Economic state interventionism is usually undertaken as an anti-crisis and/or pro-development measure aimed at reducing the scale, level and probability of financial, economic crises, etc., but, on the other hand, often the aforementioned interventionist activity carried out within the framework of specific economic programs leads to escalation of risk levels and generates further crises.
In 2023, the scale of bankruptcies of companies and enterprises in the SME sector in Poland was the highest for many years. The economic downturn in 2023 was the result of the negative effects of interventionist measures taken as anti-crisis measures applied during previous economic and/or financial crises. An example is the anti-inflationary raising of interest rates by central banks implemented from late 2021 or early 2022. The purpose of tightening monetary policy was to curb the growth of inflation, but the result was an increase in the cost of money lent in the form of loans by commercial banks, a decrease in the creditworthiness of economic entities, a decline in investment and a deterioration in labor markets. Another effect of the aforementioned crises and/or the anti-crisis interventionist monetary and fiscal policies applied was an increase in the indebtedness of the state's public finance system.
In the perspective of the following years and decades of time, economic crises operating in different time frames will potentially develop:
1. In the relatively shorter term: the beginning of a new business cycle, inflation, monetary policy versus the situation in the capital markets, the risk of a potential stock market crash,
2. In the medium term: the low level of investment to date and the process of population aging, the problem of the growing debt of the state's public finance system,
3. in the long term: the developing global climate crisis, still increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the progressive process of climate change, global warming, the negative effects of climate change on the economy.
The research shows that in the future there will probably be a reoccurrence of some past crises, but the economic reality, however, may be different. In recent years, the importance of green transformation of the economy has been growing. In the future, developing crises of various kinds will intertwine and affect each other. Innovation and new technologies should help solve problems derived from crises.
In view of the above, it is therefore necessary to continue research in the problem of identifying the sources and determining the impact of economic and financial crises on socio-economic life, to diagnose the cyclically recurring processes operating during the said crises in order to develop the most appropriate system solutions, economic programs, instruments for the activation of economic activity, activation of innovation, counteracting the development of crises and implementing solutions that will result in increasing the macroeconomic stability of the economy while taking into account the issue of sustainable economic development, the implementation of sustainable development goals, the implementation of the principles of the green economy and closed loop economy, building a sustainable and emission-free economy.

In the CMoP almost all goods become commodities (exchanged in market). Each commodity has a value (which is the labour-time required in order to produce it): β = c + v + swhere β: value of the product c: constant capital (fixed investment...more

In the CMoP almost all goods become commodities (exchanged in market). Each commodity has a value (which is the labour-time required in order to produce it): β = c + v + swhere β: value of the product c: constant capital (fixed investment of capitalist) v: variable capital (wages paid to workers) s: surplus-value (profit of capitalist)  CMoP is a system of exploitation of labour by capital. This exploitation is non-violent (in principle): labour is obliged to sell its ability to work to the mop's owners because otherwise it cannot sustain itself. The negotiation of the labour contract is a process between nominally equal participants. However, once concluded it results in a hierarchical relationship: the capitalist acquires the managerial privilege (directs the labourer's work) and the labourer becomes his subordinate. On this basis the capitalist is able to direct the labourer to work more than the labour-time corresponding to its payment. Thus, he pays the labourer only for a part of its labour time (the value of its labour power (VLP), coveredd by variable capital (v) in the form of wages) and keep the rest for himself (as surplusvalue (s) in the form of profits):

This article surveys critically the theoretical debates that have occupied Marxist economists in Britain during recent years.* In order to understand the debates it is necessary to clarify two things: how Marx saw the structure of the...more

This article surveys critically the theoretical debates that have occupied Marxist economists in Britain during recent years.* In order to understand the debates it is necessary to clarify two things: how Marx saw the structure of the capitalist economy, and what is the structure of Marx's Capital. These will give us a benchmark for evaluating the contributions of the new Marxist economists.

This book tries hard to show what is the effective meaning of the fundamental concepts of the theory of crises. So it goes trough the notions of the fall in rate of profit, of overaccumulation, of crisis of overproduction, of...more

This book tries hard to show what is the effective meaning of the fundamental concepts of the theory of crises. So it goes trough the notions of the fall in rate of profit, of overaccumulation, of crisis of overproduction, of devalorization of capital, etc.
In contrast, the book strves to highlight that the representatives of the vulgar marxism, often from academics, give theses concepts interpretations taht bring Marx back into the fold of the political economy while all this work is aimed at the revolutionary criticism

In 1803 Jean-Baptiste Say established his best-known argument: Say's Law. Say's law in short said that aggregate supply creates aggregate demand, and additionally seems to imply that there is no need to limit or curb capital accumulation...more

In 1803 Jean-Baptiste Say established his best-known argument: Say's Law. Say's law in short said that aggregate supply creates aggregate demand, and additionally seems to imply that there is no need to limit or curb capital accumulation since aggregate demand is not a concern. Economists over the years have toyed with this idea; from the many classicals who agreed with him (and Thomas Malthus who did not), to Karl Marx who disagreed, to John Maynard Keynes who made his name in taking down Say's law, all the way up to the neoclassicals of today who seems to have reverted to a belief that aggregate demand does not matter. The consistent discussion of the topic alone should lead us to believe that aggregate demand, and its relevance or lack-thereof is worthwhile to consider. While Say first formulated the idea in 1803, a less explicit discussion of aggregate demand started with Adam Smith. Consistent in both Smith and then David Ricardo following him, is the discussion of the relationship of aggregate demand and accumulation. It is on this relationship that this paper focuses.

Formulated for the first time in 1803, Say's law, which states in principle that "it is production which opens a demand for products", implies: 1) the automaticity of balances on all markets and, 2) the impossibility of general crises of...more

Formulated for the first time in 1803, Say's law, which states in principle that "it is production which opens a demand for products", implies: 1) the automaticity of balances on all markets and, 2) the impossibility of general crises of overproduction. Still hotly debated, because of the maximum extension that neoclassical liberalism has given it both in developing the concept of general equilibrium and in justifying the so-called supply-side policies, Say's law is the subject, in Marx, of a tight critique, which undoubtedly constitutes one of the best ways of approaching his theory of the crises of capitalism. The object of this article will be limited to presenting this critique, on the one hand by putting it into perspective with the "general glut controversy" which divided classical economists in the 1820s, but also by bringing out what makes it specific: the recourse to the dialectical categories of Hegelian logic to denounce the purely abstract character of the identity posed by Say's law between production and consumption.

POUIR CITER CE TEXTE Jérôme Maucourant, "De la crise de l'économie à la crise du savoir économique : Le grand retournement de Paul Krugman", 2013. ⟨halshs-00967665⟩ EXTRAIT Or, ce type de pensée économique, qui se fonde sur un état...more

POUIR CITER CE TEXTE
Jérôme Maucourant, "De la crise de l'économie à la crise du savoir économique : Le grand retournement de Paul Krugman", 2013. ⟨halshs-00967665⟩

EXTRAIT
Or, ce type de pensée économique, qui se fonde sur un état de la technique et sur le culte du marché, et qui ignore le rôle de l’imagination sociale et des conflits politiques à même d’inventer une autre économie, porte une responsabilité dans les impasses dont nous avons le plus grand mal à sortir aujourd’hui. Le problème gît donc dans cette foi en une « science économique » unifiée : elle constitue un trait essentiel de cette pensée dominante qui structure et qui justifie le monde tel qu'il est par la référence centrale au marché. Un Krugman - et ceux qu’il peut entraîner intellectuellement avec lui - trouveront-ils une sortie de ces impasses? Peut-être, mais cela prendra du temps. Plutôt interroger dès à présent la génération suivante, ce qui pourrait être l’objet de prochains billets.

Henryk Grossmann was the first Marxist economist that proposed a theory of crisis based on the Marxian law of the falling rate of profit due to the increasing organic composition of capital. This view, while initially disappointingly...more

Henryk Grossmann was the first Marxist economist that proposed a theory of crisis based on the Marxian law of the falling rate of profit due to the increasing organic composition of capital. This view, while initially disappointingly minotirarian, has become very popular nowadays within Marxist Political Economy. At the same time Grossmann's theory has been severely criticised by many economists (e.g. P.Sweezy, Howard & King etc.). In this essay, first, Grossmannn's theory is presented. Then it is reformulated so as to be comparable to the Harrod-Domar tradition of growth models. Third, older and newer critiques are being reviewed critically. Finally, it concludes by arguing that Grossmann's theory -despite certain deficiencies to a large extent justified by its pioneering character-has a valid methodological and analytical basis. As such it is a true founder of modern theories of the falling rate of profit theory of crisis.