Inprobability theory andstatistics, theWeibull distribution/ˈwaɪbʊl/ is a continuousprobability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum one-day rainfalls and the time a user spends on a web page.
If the quantity,x, is a "time-to-failure", the Weibull distribution gives a distribution for which thefailure rate is proportional to a power of time. Theshape parameter,k, is that power plus one, and so this parameter can be interpreted directly as follows:[6]
A value of indicates that thefailure rate decreases over time (like in case of theLindy effect, which however corresponds toPareto distributions[7] rather than Weibull distributions). This happens if there is significant "infant mortality", or defective items failing early and the failure rate decreasing over time as the defective items are weeded out of the population. In the context of thediffusion of innovations, this means negative word of mouth: thehazard function is a monotonically decreasing function of the proportion of adopters;
A value of indicates that the failure rate is constant over time. This might suggest random external events are causing mortality, or failure. The Weibull distribution reduces to an exponential distribution;
A value of indicates that the failure rate increases with time. This happens if there is an "aging" process, or parts that are more likely to fail as time goes on. In the context of thediffusion of innovations, this means positive word of mouth: the hazard function is a monotonically increasing function of the proportion of adopters. The function is first convex, then concave with an inflection point at.
In the field ofmaterials science, the shape parameterk of a distribution of strengths is known as theWeibull modulus. In the context ofdiffusion of innovations, the Weibull distribution is a "pure" imitation/rejection model.
Applications inmedical statistics andeconometrics often adopt a different parameterization.[8][9] The shape parameterk is the same as above, while the scale parameter is. In this case, forx ≥ 0, the probability density function is
A second alternative parameterization can also be found.[10][11] The shape parameterk is the same as in the standard case, while the scale parameterλ is replaced with a rate parameterβ = 1/λ. Then, forx ≥ 0, the probability density function is
the cumulative distribution function is
the quantile function is
and the hazard function is
In all three parameterizations, the hazard is decreasing for k < 1, increasing for k > 1 and constant for k = 1, in which case the Weibull distribution reduces to an exponential distribution.
The form of the density function of the Weibull distribution changes drastically with the value ofk. For 0 <k < 1, the density function tends to ∞ asx approaches zero from above and is strictly decreasing. Fork = 1, the density function tends to 1/λ asx approaches zero from above and is strictly decreasing. Fork > 1, the density function tends to zero asx approaches zero from above, increases until its mode and decreases after it. The density function has infinite negative slope atx = 0 if 0 <k < 1, infinite positive slope atx = 0 if 1 <k < 2 and null slope atx = 0 ifk > 2. Fork = 1 the density has a finite negative slope atx = 0. Fork = 2 the density has a finite positive slope atx = 0. Ask goes to infinity, the Weibull distribution converges to aDirac delta distribution centered atx = λ. Moreover, the skewness and coefficient of variation depend only on the shape parameter. A generalization of the Weibull distribution is thehyperbolastic distribution of type III.
A variety of expressions are available for the moment generating function ofX itself. As apower series, since the raw moments are already known, one has
Alternatively, one can attempt to deal directly with the integral
If the parameterk is assumed to be a rational number, expressed ask =p/q wherep andq are integers, then this integral can be evaluated analytically.[a] Witht replaced by −t, one finds
Let be independent and identically distributed Weibull random variables with scale parameter and shape parameter. If the minimum of these random variables is, then the cumulative probability distribution of is given by
That is, will also be Weibull distributed with scale parameter and with shape parameter.
The fit of a Weibull distribution to data can be visually assessed using a Weibull plot.[16] The Weibull plot is a plot of theempirical cumulative distribution function of data on special axes in a type ofQ–Q plot. The axes are versus. The reason for this change of variables is the cumulative distribution function can be linearized:
which can be seen to be in the standard form of a straight line. Therefore, if the data came from a Weibull distribution then a straight line is expected on a Weibull plot.
There are various approaches to obtaining the empirical distribution function from data. One method is to obtain the vertical coordinate for each point using
,
where is the rank of the data point and is the number of data points.[17][18] Another common estimator[19] is
.
Linear regression can also be used to numerically assess goodness of fit and estimate the parameters of the Weibull distribution. The gradient informs one directly about the shape parameter and the scale parameter can also be inferred.
Equating the sample quantities to, the moment estimate of the shape parameter can be read off either from a look up table or a graph of versus. A more accurate estimate of can be found using a root finding algorithm to solve
The moment estimate of the scale parameter can then be found using the first moment equation as
Fitted cumulative Weibull distribution to maximum one-day rainfalls usingCumFreq, see alsodistribution fitting[22]Fitted curves for oil production time series data[23]
In describing the size ofparticles generated by grinding,milling andcrushing operations, the 2-Parameter Weibull distribution is used, and in these applications it is sometimes known as the Rosin–Rammler distribution.[27] In this context it predicts fewer fine particles than thelog-normal distribution and it is generally most accurate for narrow particle size distributions.[28] The interpretation of the cumulative distribution function is that is themass fraction of particles with diameter smaller than, where is the mean particle size and is a measure of the spread of particle sizes.
In describing random point clouds (such as the positions of particles in an ideal gas): the probability to find the nearest-neighbor particle at a distance from a given particle is given by a Weibull distribution with and equal to the density of the particles.[29]
In calculating the rate of radiation-inducedsingle event effects onboard spacecraft, a four-parameter Weibull distribution is used to fit experimentally measured devicecross section probability data to a particlelinear energy transfer spectrum.[30] The Weibull fit was originally used because of a belief that particle energy levels align to a statistical distribution, but this belief was later proven false[citation needed] and the Weibull fit continues to be used because of its many adjustable parameters, rather than a demonstrated physical basis.[31]
The translated Weibull distribution (or 3-parameter Weibull) contains an additional parameter.[12] It has theprobability density function
for and for, where is theshape parameter, is thescale parameter and is thelocation parameter of the distribution. value sets an initial failure-free time before the regular Weibull process begins. When, this reduces to the 2-parameter distribution.
The Weibull distribution can be characterized as the distribution of a random variable such that the random variable
This implies that the Weibull distribution can also be characterized in terms of auniform distribution: if is uniformly distributed on, then the random variable is Weibull distributed with parameters and. Note that here is equivalent to just above. This leads to an easily implemented numerical scheme for simulating a Weibull distribution.
The Weibull distribution interpolates between the exponential distribution with intensity when and aRayleigh distribution of mode when.
The distribution of a random variable that is defined as the minimum of several random variables, each having a different Weibull distribution, is apoly-Weibull distribution.
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^Sharif, M.Nawaz; Islam, M.Nazrul (1980). "The Weibull distribution as a general model for forecasting technological change".Technological Forecasting and Social Change.18 (3):247–56.doi:10.1016/0040-1625(80)90026-8.
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