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Weather lore is the body of informalfolklore related to theprediction of theweather and its greater meaning.
Much like regular folklore, weather lore is passed down through speech and writing from normal people without the use of external measuring instruments. The origin of weather lore can be dated back to primeval men and their usage of star studying in navigation.[1] However, more recently during theLate Middle Ages, the works of two Greek philosopher-poets,Theophrastus of Eresus on Lesbos andAratus of Macedonia, are known for shaping the prediction of weather. Theophrastus and Aratus collated their works in two main collections for weather lore:On Weather Signs andOn Winds. These were used for helping farmers with harvest,merchants for trade and determining the weather the next day.[2]
Astrology and weather lore have been closely interlinked for many years - with each planet often being associated with a weather state. For example,Mars is red and must therefore be hot and dry. Prevalent in ancient Roman thought, astrologists used weather lore to teach commoners of the star and cloud formations and how they can be used to see the future.[2] From this, three main schools of weather lore thoughts developed during the Late Middle Ages as Astrology became more popular throughout Europe.[3] One which related to winds and clouds and had some scientific basis. A second type connected with saints' days possessed doubtful validity but was quite popular nonetheless during the Middle Ages. A third type treated the behaviour of birds and animals, which has been found to be controlled more by past and present weather rather than to be a true indication of the future.[1]
Before the invention of temperature measuring devices, such as the mercurythermometer, it was difficult to gather predictive, numerical data. Therefore, communities used their surroundings to predict and explain the weather in upcoming days.[4]
Today, the majority of weather lore can be found in proverbs. However, much of the weather lore fantasy is still prevalent in today's seasonal calendar, with mentions such as the annual saints' days, the passage of the months, and weather predictions made from animal behaviour. The creation of theastrological signs inBabylonian mythology can also be attributed to the study of stars and its association with weather lore.[2]
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Weather can be defined as the constant shift in conditions relating to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall etc. at a particular time and place.[5] A significant portion of weather occurs inEarth's middle latitudes, between roughly 30° to 60° North and South.
A great percentage of the world's population lives in theequatorial regions,[6] but for the most part, these regions do not experience weather as it is understood by this definition. TheSahara in northern Africa, for instance, is almost uniformly hot, sunny and dry all year long especially due to the non-stop presence of high atmospheric pressure aloft, whereas weather trends on theIndian subcontinent and in the westernPacific, for instance, themonsoonal belt, occur gradually over the very long term, and the diurnal weather patterns remain constant.
Weatherfolklore, therefore, refers to this mid-latitude region of daily variability. While most of it applies equally to theSouthern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere resident may need to take into account the fact that weather systems rotate opposite to those in the North. For instance, the "crossed winds"[7] rule (see below) must be reversed for theAustralian reader.
Thick, moisture-laden storm clouds absorb sunlight. It gives them an appearance that somewhat resembles black smoke.
(In a common variation, "shepherd" is replaced by "sailor")
A red sky – in the morning or evening – is a result of high pressure air in the atmosphere trapping particles of dust or soot. Air molecules scatter the shorter blue wavelengths of sunlight, but particles of dust, soot and other aerosols scatter the longer red wavelength of sunlight in a process calledRayleigh scattering. At sunrise and sunset, the sun is lower in the sky causing the sunlight to travel through more of the atmosphere so scattering more light.[9] This effect is further enhanced when there are at least some high level clouds to reflect this light back to the ground.[10]
When weather systems predominantly move fromwest toeast, a red sky at night indicates that the high pressure air (and better weather) is westwards. In the morning the light is eastwards, and so a red sky then indicates the high pressure (and better weather) has already passed, and an area of low pressure is following behind.[11]
In western European seas, this description of wind direction is an excellent illustration of how the weather events of an activelow pressure area[12] present themselves. With the approach of a low, easterly winds typically pick up. These gusty winds can be unpleasant for a number of reasons; they are often uncomfortably warm, dry, and dusty in the summer and bitterly cold in the winter. Northerly winds, which follow around a low, are cold and blustery.Sailing in conditions of northerly winds requires expertise and aboat capable of handling heavy waves. Southerly winds usually bring warm temperatures, and though they may not necessarily feed the fish, they do provide pleasant fishing weather. Wind and weather observations will be different for a low passing to the north of the observer than for one passing to the south. When a low passes to the north, the winds typically pick up from the east, swing to southerly (possibly accompanied by light precipitation, usually not) with the passage of the low's warm front, and then switch to northwesterly or westerly as the cold front passes. Typically, if there is any heavy precipitation, it will accompany the passage of the cold front. When a low passes to the south, on the other hand, winds will initially pick up from the east, but will gradually shift to northerly. Overcast skies and steady precipitation often occur as the center of the low passes due south, but skies will clear and winds will gradually become westerly as the low moves off to the east. No observer will experience all the weather elements of a low in a single passage.[13]
Calm conditions, especially with clear skies, indicate the dominance of ahigh pressure area. Because highs are broad regions of descending air, they discourage the formation of phenomena typically associated with weather, such as clouds, wind, and precipitation. Calm conditions, though, may also result from a circumstance known as "the calm before the storm," in which a large thunderstorm cell to the west may be updrafting the westerly surface wind before it can arrive locally. This situation is readily identifiable by looking to the west – such an approaching storm will be close enough to be unmistakable. In winter, though, calm air and clear skies may signal the presence of anArctic high,[14] typically accompanied by very cold air, and it is difficult to imagine describing a temperature of –35 °C (–31 °F) as pleasant.
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Ahalo around the Sun or Moon is caused by therefraction of that body's light byice crystals at highaltitude. Such high-level moisture is a precursor to moisture moving in at increasingly lower levels, and is a good indicator that an active weather system is on its way. Halos typically evolve into what is known as "milk sky", when the sky appears clear, but the typical blue is either washed-out or barely noticeable. This high, thick cirrostratus cloud is a clear indicator of an approaching low. In the coldest days of winter, a halo around the Sun is evidence of very cold and typically clear air at and above the surface. Butsun dogs are indicators that weather conditions are likely to change in the next 18 to 36 hours.[15][citation needed]
Moisture in the air causeswood to swell, making doors and windows sticky, and salt is a very effective absorber ofmoisture. With a high level of moisture in the air, the likelihood of precipitation is increased.[16] Themagnesium carbonate and latercalcium silicate in iodized salt acts as an anti-clumping agent in humid conditions, leading toMorton Salt's umbrella girl logo and slogan "When it rains, it pours".
Fog is formed when the air cools enough that thevapour pressure encouragescondensation overevaporation. In order for the air to be cool on a summer night, thesky must be clear, so excessheat can be radiated intospace. Cloudy skies act like a blanket, absorbing and reradiating the heat, keeping it in. So if it is cool enough (and clear enough) for fog to form, it will probably be clear the next day.[citation needed] Winter fog is the result of two entirely different circumstances. Above the ocean or a large lake, air is typically more humid than above land. When the humid air moves over cold land, it will form fog and precipitation. (To the east of theNorth AmericanGreat Lakes, this is a common phenomenon, and is known as the "lake effect.")[17] In northerly climates,ice fog may form when the temperature drops substantially below freezing. It is almost exclusively anurban phenomenon, when the air is so cold that any vapor pressure results in condensation, and additional vapour emitted by automobiles, household furnaces, and industrial plants simply accumulates as fog.
This rule may be true under a few special circumstances, otherwise it is false. By standing with one's back to the ground-level wind and observing the movement of the clouds, it is possible to determine whether the weather will improve or deteriorate.[13] For the Northern Hemisphere, it works like this: If the upper-level clouds are moving from the right, a low-pressure area has passed and the weather will improve; if from the left, a low pressure area is arriving and the weather will deteriorate. (Reverse for theSouthern Hemisphere.) This is known as the "crossed-winds" rule.[7] Clouds traveling parallel to but against the wind may indicate a thunderstorm approaching. Outflow winds typically blow opposite to the updraft zone, and clouds carried in the upper level wind will appear to be moving against the surface wind. However, if such a storm is in the offing, it is not necessary to observe the cloud motions to know rain is a good possibility. The nature of airflowsdirectly at a frontal boundary can also create conditions in which lower winds contradict the motions of upper clouds, and the passage of a frontal boundary is often marked by precipitation. Most often, however, this situation occurs in the lee of a low pressure area, to the north of the frontal zones and convergence region, and does not indicate a change in weather, but rather, that the weather, fair or showery, will remain so for a period of hours at least.[13]
One of the problems in testing the veracity of traditions about the weather is the wide variety to be found in the details of sayings and traditions. Some variations are regional, while others exhibit less of a pattern.
One case where weather lore has been studied for reliability against actual weather observations is theGroundhog Day lore. It predicts that if thegroundhog sees its shadow on this day (February 2), six weeks of winter remain. One analysis concluded the creature demonstrated no ability to predict.[18] Other studies gave accuracy percentages, but differing figures.[a] and some of the numbers were slightly better than hazarded guess (33% accurate), according to one source.[21] In other words, there is no appreciable correlation between cloud cover on that day, and the imminence of springlike weather.
There are some meteorological bases suggested, but it is a fuzzy mechanism, and fixing a precise date compromises the effectiveness.[21]
There are weather lore marked by dates on the year's calendar.
The Hispanic tradition ofcabañuelas predicts the weather for the year based on the 12, 18 or 24 days of January or August.[23]
There are weather lore around February 2, known asCandlemas,Brigid's Day, orSt. Blaise's Day (St. Blaze's Day). One French lore says that if it rains on Candlemas (Chandeleur) there will be forty more days of rain:Quand il pleut pour la Chandeleur, il pleut pendant quarante jours.[24]Groundhog Day also falls on this day.
Groundhog Day, observed in the U. S. and Canada, also falls on February 2 and is thought to derive from the Candlemas weather lore in Europe, particularly the German which features the badger as the predictor. An example of such German weather rhyme translates as:
There are also French counterparts. One forSaint-Vallier in Lorraine states:
And another fromCourbesseaux says that if it is sunny on Candlemas the wolf returns to its cave for six weeks, and if not, for forty days.[26]
In French Canada, it may be a marmot or groundhog (siffleux), bear, skunk, otter etc. which if it sees its shadow on Candlemas, causes winter to prolong for 40 days.[27]
English traditional weather lore recites, "If Candlemas Day be fair and brightWinter will have another fightIf Candlemas Day brings cloud and rainWinter won't come again"[28]
An English proverb describes typical March weather:
In the 19th century it was used as a prediction contingent on a year's early March weather:
"Blows its horn" refers to thunderstorms. While March thunderstorms indicate that the weather is unusually warm for that time of year (thunderstorms can occur only with a sufficiently largetemperature difference between ground and sky and sufficient amounts of moisture to produce charge differential within a cloud).[31]
In theBritish Isles,Saint Swithun's day (July 15) is said to forecast the weather for the rest of the summer. If St Swithun's day is dry, then the legend says that the next forty days will also be dry: "St.Swithin's Day if thou be fair, 'Twill rain for forty days no mair; St. Swithin's Day if thou dost rain, For forty days it will remain.". If however it rains, the rain will continue for forty days.
There is a scientific basis to the legend of St Swithun's day. Around the middle of July, thejet stream settles into a pattern which, in the majority of years, holds reasonably steady until the end of August. When the jet stream lies north of the British Isles then continental high pressure is able to move in; when it lies across or south of the British Isles, Arctic air and Atlantic weather systems predominate.[32]
The Hispanic tradition ofcabañuelas predicts the weather for the year based on the first 12, 18 or 24 days of January or August.[23]
A Swedish proverb uses 30 November (St Andrew's day, referencing thename day of Anders, a localised variant) as an indicator of the weather over Christmas (Anders slaskar, julen braskar, translation: Slushy Anders [St. Andrew's day], frozen Christmas).[33]
InFrance,Saint Medard (June 8),Urban of Langres (April 2), andSaint Gervase and Saint Protais (June 19) are credited with an influence on the weather almost identical with that attributed to St Swithun in England, while inFlanders there isSt Godelieve (July 6) and in Germany theSeven Sleepers Day (June 27).
InRussia, the weather on the feast of theProtecting Veil is popularly believed to indicate the severity of the forthcoming winter.[34]
There was an oldproverb fromRomagna that ran: "Par San Paternian e' trema la coda a e' can."[citation needed] ("OnSt. Paternian's day, the dog's tail wags"). This Cervian proverb refers to the fact that the cold began to be felt around the saint's feast day.[citation needed] A farmers' saying associated withQuirinus' feast day of March 30 was "Wie der Quirin, so der Sommer" ("As St. Quirinus' Day goes, so will the summer").[35]
TheIce Saints is the name given inGerman,Austrian, andSwissfolklore to a period noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in theNorthern Hemisphere under theJulian Calendar in May, because the Roman Catholicfeast days of St.Mamertus, St.Pancras, and St.Servatus fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively.
In Northern Spain, the four yearly periods ofember days (témporas) are used to predict the weather of the following season.[citation needed]
Sometimes the lore is concurrent with existing conditions, more than prediction, as in:
Seagulls tend to sleep on the water. However, seagulls, like people, find gusty,turbulent wind difficult to contend with, and under such circumstances, the water is also choppy and unpleasant. Seagulls huddled on the ground may be a sign that the weather is already bad.
Cows prefer not to have the wind blowing in their faces, and so typically stand with their backs to the wind. Since westerly winds typically mean arriving or continuing fair weather and easterly winds usually indicate arriving or continuing unsettled weather, a cowvane is as good a way as any of knowing what the weather will be up to for the next few hours.
While it is true that cats and dogs eat grass, it has nothing to do with the weather and is because cats and dogs are not exclusively carnivorous. Some researchers believe that dogs eat grass as anemetic when feeling ill.[36][citation needed]
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Centered in the German-speaking world, there was the belief that frogs could predict the weather. It grew from observingEuropean tree frogs climb up vegetation in sunny weather, and led to frogs being held inside jars equipped with a small ladder. The termWetterfrosch (weather frog) has survived as a humorous, if somewhat derogatory epithet for meteorologists, insinuating their predictions can not be trusted.
Some early barometers used leeches in a jar to predict when a storm was coming. This is because leeches tend to climb and become agitated when low pressure is approaching.Ref
This verse, and so many others like it, attempts to predict long-range conditions. These predictions have stood the test of time only because they rely onselective memory: people remember when they have predicted correctly and forget when predictions don't hold.[38] One possible factor which could provide these predictions with a thin edge of credibility is that there is some degree of consistency in weather from year to year.Drought cycles orEl Niño winters are a perfect example of such circumstances. A pattern of cool summers and warm winters, for instance, can produce patterns in other natural events sensitive enough to be affected by changes in temperature or precipitation.
Late-night rains and early morning rains may simply be the last precipitation of a passing weather front. However, since fronts pass at night as often as they do in the day, morning rain is no predictor of a dry afternoon. However, this lore can describe non-frontal weather. Given sufficient surface heating, a late-day rainstorm may continue to develop into the night, produce early precipitation, then dissipate by late morning. This, though, is the exception rather than the rule. Only 40% of rain is produced by convective events – 60% is the result of a frontal passage.[39]
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