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Future-oriented technology analysis

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Futures studies
Concepts
Techniques
Technologyassessment andforecasting
Related topics
For other uses of "FTA", seeFTA (disambiguation).

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term fromfutures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.[1][2] It includes technology intelligence,technology forecasting,technology roadmapping,technology assessment, andtechnology foresight.Technology Futures Analysis orTechnology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.[1][3]

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods withhorizon scanning.[4][5]

Definitions

[edit]
YearDefinition
2004Technology futures analysis is"any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."[6]
2013Future-oriented technology analysis is"an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."[7]

Methods

[edit]
Methods and their families[8]
MethodFamily
Agent based modelingModeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy processValuing/decision/economic
BackcastingDescriptive and matrices
BibliometricsMonitoring and intelligence, Statistics
BrainstormingCreativity
Cross impact analysisModeling and simulation, Statistics
DelphiExpert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analysesValuing/decision/economic
Relevance treeDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
RoadmappingDescriptive and matrices
ScenariosScenarios
Social impact assessmentDescriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysisDescriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysisDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamicsModeling and simulation
Technology assessmentDescriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZCreativity

References

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  1. ^abFilip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004)."IT tools for foresight studies".Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168.
  2. ^"Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods".Technological Forecasting and Social Change.71 (3):287–303. 1 March 2004.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004.ISSN 0040-1625.S2CID 18904868.
  3. ^Sánchez-Torres, J. M.; Miles, I. (16 December 2017)."The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review".European Journal of Futures Research.5 (1): 15.doi:10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7.ISSN 2195-2248.S2CID 9744177.
  4. ^Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011)."Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective".Futures.43 (3):265–278.doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005.ISSN 0016-3287.
  5. ^Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022)."Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility". Social Science Research Network.SSRN 4151745.{{cite journal}}:Cite journal requires|journal= (help)
  6. ^"Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods".Technological Forecasting and Social Change.71 (3):287–303. 1 March 2004.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004.ISSN 0040-1625.S2CID 18904868.
  7. ^Cagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan (1 March 2013)."Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations".Technological Forecasting and Social Change.80 (3):379–385.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001.ISSN 0040-1625.S2CID 60530892.
  8. ^"Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods".Technological Forecasting and Social Change.71 (3):287–303. 1 March 2004.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004.ISSN 0040-1625.S2CID 18904868.
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