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Climate change in Namibia

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Drought conditions in Namibia are exacerbated by climate change

Climate change is the consequence of long-term alterations in theEarth's climate caused by the emission ofgreenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide (CO2) andmethane (CH4). These gases can trap heat in the atmosphere, resulting inglobal warming and a heightened temperature on our planet. The activities carried out by humans, such as the utilization offossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), along with large-scale commercialagriculture anddeforestation, are accountable for the release of thesegreenhouse gases. The escalating temperatures and escalatingextreme heat conditions, uncertain and progressively unpredictable precipitation, and extreme weather provoke new challenges and exacerbate existing ones.[1]

Namibia is located in the southwestern region of the African continent, lying between latitude 17°S and 29°S and longitude 11°E and 26°E. The country encompasses a land area of 825,418 km2 and boasts a coastline stretching 1,500 km along the South Atlantic Ocean.Namibia shares borders withAngola to the north,South Africa to the south,Botswana to the east, andZambia to the northeast. The country's climate is predominantlyarid, with theNamib Desert and theKalahari Desert occupying significant portions of the eastern and western territories, respectively.Aridity diminishes as one moves toward the central plateau regions and the great escarpment situated between the central plateau and theNamib Desert.[2]Namibia's climate is characterized bypersistent droughts, unpredictable and varying rainfall patterns, substantial temperature fluctuations, and limited water resources.[1][3][4][5]

Greenhouse gas emissions

[edit]

The African continent is responsible for 2%-3% of globalgreenhouse gas emissions, thereby contributing toclimate change. In 2020,Namibia emitted 24.12 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent representing 0.05% of global emissions with a climate risk index of 107.[6][7]Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forNamibia in 2020 were 13,560.38 kt, representing a 25.69% increase compared to 2019, 2019 was 10,788.73 kt, indicating a 7.13% decline from 2018, 2018 was 11,616.69 kt, reflecting a 6.14% decrease from 2017, 2017 were 12,376.73 kt, showing a 0.47% increase from 201.[8][9][10]

Fossil Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions of Namibia[8][11]
YearFossil CO2

Emissions(tons)

CO2 emissions

change

CO2 emissions

per capita

PopulationPop.

change

Share of World's

CO2 emissions

20163,901,8304.42%1.682,323,3521.78 %0.01%
20153,736,5770.36%1.642,282,7041.77 %0.01%
20143,723,2014.52%1.662,243,0011.75 %0.01%
20133,562,1147.55%1.622,204,5101.71 %0.01%
20123,312,1674.72%1.532,167,4701.65 %0.01%
20113,162,8875.04%1.482,132,3401.58 %0.01%
20103,011,1604.68%1.432,099,2711.52 %0.01%
20092,876,6012.35%1.392,067,9191.44 %0.01%
20082,810,60214.82%1.382,038,5521.35 %0.01%
20072,447,8953.28%1.222,011,4921.26 %0.01%
20062,370,1001.18%1.191,986,5581.21 %0.01%
20052,342,4415.22%1.191,962,8651.21 %0.01%
20042,226,1416.42%1.151,939,4061.25 %0.01%
20032,091,8276.32%1.091,915,4251.42 %0.01%
20021,967,450-13.28%1.041,888,5251.73 %0.01%
20012,268,69324.18%1.221,856,4022.05 %0.01%
20001,826,996-1.92%1.001,819,1412.30 %0.01%
19991,862,734-9.48%1.051,778,2772.44 %0.01%
19982,057,8473.21%1.191,735,9532.52 %0.01%
19971,993,8314.65%1.181,693,2422.62 %0.01%
19961,905,3167.68%1.151,650,0662.78 %0.01%
19951,769,4336.71%1.101,605,3703.01 %0.00%
19941,658,12515.25%1.061,558,4493.22 %0.00%
19931,438,73116.06%0.951,509,8343.29 %0.00%
19921,239,6078.71%0.851,461,6873.25 %0.00%
19911,140,28350.77%0.811,415,6173.40 %0.00%
1990756,289-15.21%0.551,369,0116.28 %0.00%
1989891,9498.82%0.691,288,0706.63 %0.00%
1988819,61819.45%0.681,207,9493.65 %0.00%
1987686,18420.76%0.591,165,4303.32 %0.00%
1986568,217-22.10%0.501,127,9893.17 %0.00%
1985729,3951.91%0.671,093,3112.95 %0.00%
1984715,750-0.67%0.671,061,9952.80 %0.00%
1983720,581-3.79%0.701,033,0852.74 %0.00%
1982748,977-0.71%0.741,005,5201.84 %0.00%
1981754,3406.79%0.76987,3941.17 %0.00%
1980706,384-3.32%0.72975,9941.95 %0.00%
1979730,65715.54%0.76957,3341.63 %0.00%
1978632,400-3.73%0.67942,0231.72 %0.00%
1977656,90110.25%0.71926,1092.69 %0.00%
1976595,845-5.38%0.66901,8402.88 %0.00%
1975629,7001.12%0.72876,5723.12 %0.00%
1974622,7534.68%0.73850,0913.05 %0.00%
1973594,9247.22%0.72824,9183.04 %0.00%
1972554,8501.92%0.69800,6103.04 %0.00%
1971544,4010.15%0.70776,9952.99 %0.00%

Impact on the natural environment

[edit]

Temperature and weather changes

[edit]
This bar chart is a visual representation of the change in temperature in the past 100+ years. Each stripe represents the temperature averaged over a year. The average temperature in 1971–2000 is set as the boundary between blue and red colors, and the color scale varies from ±2.6 standard deviations of the annual average temperatures between the years mentioned in the file name
Further information:Geography of Namibia
Köppen climate classification map for Namibia for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map underthe most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[12][13][14]

The effects ofclimate change, both current and future, present significant risks to human health, welfare, and the natural environment.Namibia is experiencing clear indications of increasing temperatures.[15] Over the past century, surface temperatures in Namibia have risen by 1.2degrees Celsius, and the frequency ofextreme temperatures has increased by 10% in the last four decades.Southern Africa, including Namibia, has warmed by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1900, and recent years have witnessed the highest temperatures on record since the 19th century.[2] Projections indicate that summer temperatures may rise between 1 °C and 3.5 °C and winter temperatures between 1 °C and 4 °C within the period of 2046-2065. There has been a noticeable increase in the number of days exceeding 35 °C, contributing to the overall trend of rising maximumtemperatures. The evidence of climate change extends beyond surface temperature increases and encompasses changing precipitation patterns. However, attributing these changes to climate change in the context of Namibia's rainfall variability proves challenging. Records suggest that the frequency of bothdroughts andfloods has risen by approximately 18% on average over the last four decades when compared to previous periods. This multifaceted evidence underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and its impacts on Namibia's climate system.[15] The mean annualtemperature forNamibia is 20.6 °C, with average monthlytemperatures ranging between 24 °C (November to March) and 16 °C (June, July).[1]

Impact on water resources

[edit]
Further information:Water supply and sanitation in Namibia,Effects of climate change, andNamibia

Climate change is contributing to a global increase in temperatures, and this is also true for Namibia. The rising temperatures are resulting in higher rates ofevaporation, which in turn decreases the availability of surface water and worsens water scarcity within the country.[16]Namibia heavily relies on rainfall to meet its water needs, especially in rural regions. However, climate change is modifying precipitation patterns, leading to more intense and unpredictable rainfall events. Consequently, these changes can cause flashfloods,erosion, and a decrease ingroundwater recharge, all of which greatly impact water resources.[17] Additionally, Namibia has been experiencing prolonged droughts as a result of climate change. These droughts can deplete water reservoirs such as aquifers and severely affect the country'swater supply and sanitation systems. The coastal areas of Namibia are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels, which can result in the intrusion ofsaltwater intofreshwater aquifers, further compromising the quality and availability of water resources.[5][18]

Ecosystems

[edit]

Climate change is causing shifts in temperature andprecipitation patterns, resulting in decreased rainfall in Namibia. This decrease in rainfall affects the production ofstaple crops, leading tofood insecurity and impactingecosystems.[1] Furthermore, climate change manifests in droughts and otherextreme weather events, which have a significant impact on natural ecosystems. These changing conditions are causing shifts inspecies andhabitats, thereby affectingbiodiversity.[19] Particularly, Namibia's endemic species are highly vulnerable to climate change, as they face threats to their survival due to changing environmental conditions.[19] Additionally, the reduced rainfall and increased temperatures brought about by climate change can result in severe water shortages, affecting both human communities and ecosystems in Namibia. Therefore, water policies and practices play a crucial role in maintaining the health of ecosystems. The impacts of climate change on water resources are interconnected with biodiversity and the well-being of ecosystems.[20] As projected, Namibia is expected to experience a more rapid increase in temperatures compared to many other countries, leading to an increasing frequency of drought conditions. This exacerbates the stress onecosystems.[2] Climate change has adverse effects on fish stocks and coastal livelihoods, further impacting natural ecosystems and the tourism industry in Namibia.[3]

Agriculture and livestock

[edit]
Further information:Agriculture in Namibia
Animal fodder production that aims to counterwoody plant encroachment and enhanceclimate resilience
Sheep farming in Namibia

Climate change has had a significant impact onagriculture andlivestock inNamibia, resulting in consequences onfood security and thelivelihoods of manyNamibians. Due to climate change, Namibia is experiencing more frequent andsevere droughts, leading to decreased availability of water for agriculture and livestock. Consequently, this directly affects crop yields and the access to water forlivestock.[3] The changing climate has also caused unpredictable rainfall patterns, making it challenging for farmers to predict the optimal times for planting and harvesting. This unpredictability can lead to lowercrop yields and decreasedagricultural productivity.[20] Livestock farming plays a crucial role in Namibia's agriculture. However, climate change-related factors such as rising temperatures and the spread of diseases have a negative impact on livestock health and productivity.[21][22] Therefore, livestock farmers adapt their practices to cope with these challenges.[20] In order to mitigate the effects of climate change, Namibian farmers are increasingly adopting conservation agriculture practices.[23][24] This approach involves minimizing soil disturbance, implementing cover crops, and implementingcrop rotation to enhancesoil health andwater retention, ultimately improving resilience to climate variability. Several projects, including those supported by theWorld Bank and theUnited Nations Development Programme (UNDP), are focused on promoting climate-resilient livestock systems, as well as enhancing traditional crops and livestock farming practices in Namibia. These initiatives aim to assist farmers in adapting to the changing climate and building resilience in their agricultural and livestock operations.[25][26][27]

Occupation by subsector for 2016[28]
Occupation (ISCO-88)5Livestock farmingCrop farming
Legislators, senior officers and managers953402
Professionals259186
Technicians and associate professionals1366263
Clerks151353
Service workers and sales22051067
Skilled agricultural4089224583
Craft and related trades905446
Plant and machine operators671332
Elementary occupation3563118865
Armed forces162
Total8303246

Health impacts

[edit]
Further information:Health in Namibia

Climate change inNamibia has resulted in an upsurge of water andvector-borne diseases, causing a direct impact on the public's health and overall well-being.[1] The effect of climate change on Namibia's economy and livelihoods is projected to be substantial, subsequently influencing people's health due to economic hardship and research reveals that 3.6 billion people are already living in areas highly susceptible to climate change. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, fromundernutrition,malaria,diarrhea, andheat stress alone.[29] Specifically, the north-central regions ofNamibia are particularly susceptible to the consequences of climate change, exacerbated byenvironmental degradation andsocial vulnerability, which further contribute to health risks.[30][31] Notably, organizations such as the Namibia Nature Foundation are actively engaged in combatting the effects of climate change on both human health and the environment.[20]

Mitigation and adaptations

[edit]
Women package locally produced charcoal, which is used to diversify rural farming income

Namibia has implemented climate change mitigation strategies through its National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (NCCSAP) from 2013 to 2020.[32] These strategies encompass bothadaptation and mitigation efforts, with a focus on addressing the challenges posed by climate change in the country. Namibia's NCCSAP includes policies and actions aimed at adapting to the impacts of climate change. These measures assist communities and ecosystems in coping with the changing climate, such as enhancingwater resource management in Namibia's arid regions.[32] The NCCSAP also outlines strategies to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. These strategies may involve transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources and improving energy efficiency.[32]Namibia's climate change policies align with the National Development Goals and Vision 2030, ensuring that climate action is integrated into the country's broader development agenda.[33] The government is actively working to create a conducive environment forclimate change adaptation andmitigation, aiming to strengthen its policies and measures in this regard.[34][35]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^abcde"World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal".climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  2. ^abcThomson, Gail."Climate Change in Namibia Part 2: Current and Projected Changes".Conservation Namibia. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  3. ^abc"Climate Risk Country Profile - Namibia - Namibia | ReliefWeb".reliefweb.int. 2021-08-09. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  4. ^BCC (2022-03-24)."Climate change in Namibia".Benguela Current Convention (BCC). Retrieved2023-11-05.
  5. ^ab"Republic of Namibia First Adaptation Communicaton. Namibia's Climate Change Adaptation Communication to the UNFCCC"(PDF).United Nations Climate Change website. 2021. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  6. ^"Namibia".UNDP Climate Promise. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  7. ^"Namibia Climate Change Data | Emissions and Policies".www.climatewatchdata.org. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  8. ^ab"Namibia Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions 1991-2023".www.macrotrends.net. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  9. ^Ritchie, Hannah;Roser, Max; Rosado, Pablo (2020-05-11)."CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions".Our World in Data.
  10. ^"Namibia | Climate & Development Knowledge Network".cdkn.org. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  11. ^"Namibia CO2 Emissions - Worldometer".www.worldometers.info. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  12. ^Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020)."Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading".Nature.577 (7792):618–20.Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H.doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3.PMID 31996825.
  13. ^Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022)."Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic".Annual Review of Environment and Resources.47:343–371.doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847.Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  14. ^Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022)."Explainer: IPCC Scenarios".Cosmos.Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved30 September 2023."The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  15. ^abMwala, Lubinda (2015)."Fact Sheet: Climate Change THE DEFINITION, CAUSES, EFFECTS AND RESPONSES IN NAMIBIA"(PDF).Hanns Seidel Foundation Namibia, House of Democracy, 70-72 Dr Frans Indongo Street, Windhoek West P.O. Box 90912, Klein Windhoek, Windhoek, Namibia.
  16. ^"IAEA Supports Improved Aquifer Management in Climate Change Affected Namibia".www.iaea.org. 2021-08-10. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  17. ^Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton, Michele L.; Archer van Garderen, Emma; Jewitt, Graham P. W. (2014-01-01)."Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review".Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C.67–69:47–54.Bibcode:2014PCE....67...47K.doi:10.1016/j.pce.2013.09.014.ISSN 1474-7065.
  18. ^Mapani, Benjamin S.; Shikangalah, Rosemary N.; Mwetulundila, Asteria L. (2023-01-01)."A review on water security and management under climate change conditions, Windhoek, Namibia".Journal of African Earth Sciences.197: 104749.Bibcode:2023JAfES.19704749M.doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2022.104749.ISSN 1464-343X.S2CID 252836823.
  19. ^ab"Ecosystems | U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit".toolkit.climate.gov. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  20. ^abcd"Namibian Farmers Fight Effects of Climate Change with Conservation Agriculture".Chemonics International. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  21. ^Louise, Helen Brown (December 2009)."The economic impact of climate change on commercial agriculture in Namibia"(PDF).University of York.
  22. ^Barnes, Jon I.; MacGregor, James; Alberts, Moira (2012-09-28)."Expected climate change impacts on land and natural resource use in Namibia: exploring economically efficient responses".Pastoralism: Research, Policy and Practice.2 (1): 22.Bibcode:2012Pasto...2...22B.doi:10.1186/2041-7136-2-22.ISSN 2041-7136.
  23. ^"FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Namibia -".www.fao.org. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  24. ^"World Bank Open Data".World Bank Open Data. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  25. ^"Climate-resilient livestock in Botswana and Namibia".blogs.worldbank.org. 2022-06-09. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  26. ^"Adapting to Climate Change through the Improvement of Traditional Crops and Livestock Farming Systems in Namibia | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation".www.adaptation-undp.org. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  27. ^Thomson, Gail."Climate Change in Namibia Part 4: Local Actions".Conservation Namibia. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  28. ^Mubita, Lydia (2018)."Is Agricultural Productivity an engine for growth?"(PDF).{{cite journal}}:Cite journal requires|journal= (help)
  29. ^"Climate change".www.who.int. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  30. ^Opoku, Samuel Kwasi; Filho, Walter Leal; Hubert, Fudjumdjum; Adejumo, Oluwabunmi (2021-04-27)."Climate Change and Health Preparedness in Africa: Analysing Trends in Six African Countries".International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.18 (9): 4672.doi:10.3390/ijerph18094672.ISSN 1661-7827.PMC 8124714.PMID 33925753.
  31. ^Angula, Margaret N.; Kaundjua, Maria B. (2016-02-02)."The changing climate and human vulnerability in north-central Namibia".Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies.8 (2): 200.doi:10.4102/jamba.v8i2.200.ISSN 2072-845X.PMC 6014045.PMID 29955311.
  32. ^abc"National Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2013-2020 - Climate Change Laws of the World".climate-laws.org. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  33. ^"Base de datos FAOLEX. Namibia (Nivel nacional). National Policy on Climate Change for Namibia 2010".www.fao.org. 2010. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  34. ^"Namibia commences its reporting process aimed at strengthening policies and measures to climate change adaptation and mitigation | United Nations Development Programme".UNDP. Retrieved2023-11-05.
  35. ^Mupambwa, Hupenyu A.; Hausiku, Martha K.; Namwoonde, Andreas S.; Liswaniso, Gadaffi M.; Haulofu, Mayday; Mafwila, Samuel K. (2021), Oguge, Nicholas; Ayal, Desalegn; Adeleke, Lydia; da Silva, Izael (eds.), "Climate Change Implications and Mitigation in a Hyperarid Country: A Case of Namibia",African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 2247–2268,doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_225,ISBN 978-3-030-45106-6
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