Discovery[1][2] | |
---|---|
Discovered by | Georges Attard andAlain Maury |
Discovery site | San Pedro de Atacama |
Discovery date | 26 February 2023 |
Designations | |
2023 DW | |
3BP2721[2] | |
Orbital characteristics[3] | |
Epoch 2023-Feb-25 (JD 2460000.5) | |
Uncertainty parameter 6 | |
Observation arc | 20 days |
Aphelion | 1.145 AU (Q) |
Perihelion | 0.495 AU (q) |
0.820 AU (a) | |
Eccentricity | 0.397 (e) |
0.742 years (271 days) | |
120.0° (M) | |
Inclination | 5.81° (i) |
326.1° (Ω) | |
2022-Nov-26 | |
40.4° (ω) | |
Earth MOID | 0.0005 AU (75 thousand km) |
Venus MOID | 0.03 AU (4.5 million km)[4] |
Jupiter MOID | 4.3 AU (640 million km) |
Physical characteristics | |
24.3(MPC)[4] | |
2023 DW is anear-Earth asteroid of theAten group. It is approximately 50 meters (160 feet) in diameter, roughly the size of theasteroid that caused theTunguska event,[a] and was discovered byGeorges Attard andAlain Maury, from the MAP (Maury/Attard/Parrott) asteroid search program inSan Pedro de Atacama on 26 February 2023, when it was 0.07 AU (10 million km) from Earth.[1] On 28 February 2023, with anobservation arc of 1.2 days, it was rated 1 on theTorino scale for a virtual impactor on 14 February 2046 at 21:36UTC.[6] Thenominal approach is expected to occur about eight hours before the impact scenario at 14 February 2046 13:15 ± 72 minutes.[3] Between 5–8 March, the asteroid was not observed as it was within 40 degrees of thewaxing gibbous moon.[7] On 14 March 2023 theEuropean Space Agency was the first to drop to a Torino scale rating of 0.[8]Sentry dropped to a Torino scale rating of 0 on 16 March 2023.[9] It was completely removed from both risk tables on 20 March 2023.[10]
2023 DW currently orbits theSun once every 271 days.[3] It came toperihelion (closest approach to the Sun) on 26 November 2022, and then approached Earth from the direction of the Sun making closest Earth approach on 18 February 2023 at distance of about 8.7 million km.[3]
With an observation arc of 13 days it peaked at aPalermo scale rating of –1.89[11] with the odds of impact then being about 78 times less than the background hazard level.[b] It was removed from the risk table on 20 March 2023.
Solution | Observation arc (in days) | JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) | uncertainty region (3-sigma) | Impact probability | Torino scale | Palermo scale (max) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JPL #2(2023-Feb-28) | 2 (38 obs) | 0.0165 AU (2.47 million km) | ± 21 million km | 1:830[12] | 1 | –2.28 |
JPL #5(2023-Mar-03) | 4 (55 obs) | 0.0181 AU (2.71 million km) | ± 18 million km | 1:710[13] | 1 | –2.21 |
JPL #6(2023-Mar-04) | 6 (60 obs) | 0.0095 AU (1.42 million km) | ± 13 million km | 1:543 | 1 | –2.11 |
JPL #7(2023-Mar-05) | 6 (62 obs) | 0.0124 AU (1.86 million km) | ± 13 million km | 1:613[14] | 1 | –2.16 |
JPL #8(2023-Mar-06) | 6 (62 obs) | 0.0123 AU (1.84 million km) | ± 13 million km | 1:560[15] | 1 | –2.12 |
JPL #9(2023-Mar-11) | 13 (69 obs) | 0.0121 AU (1.81 million km) | ± 8 million km | 1:420[16] | 1 | –1.98 |
JPL #10(2023-Mar-12) | 13 (77 obs) | 0.0097 AU (1.45 million km) | ± 7 million km | 1:360[11] | 1 | –1.89 |
JPL #11(2023-Mar-13) | 15 (91 obs) | 0.0186 AU (2.78 million km) | ± 7 million km | 1:670[17] | 1 | –2.18 |
JPL #12(2023-Mar-14) | 16 (99 obs) | 0.0192 AU (2.87 million km) | ± 7 million km | 1:770[18] | 1 | –2.23 |
JPL #13(2023-Mar-15) | 17 (104 obs) | 0.0198 AU (2.96 million km) | ± 6 million km | 1:1000[19] | 1 | –2.34 |
JPL #14(2023-Mar-16) | 17 (112 obs) | 0.0216 AU (3.23 million km) | ± 5 million km | 1:3600[9] | 0 | –2.90 |
JPL #15(2023-Mar-17) | 18 (115 obs) | 0.0214 AU (3.20 million km) | ± 5 million km | 1:3400[20] | 0 | –2.88 |
JPL #16(2023-Mar-19) | 20 (118 obs) | 0.0303 AU (4.53 million km) | ± 4 million km | N/A[5][c] | N/A | N/A |
JPL #17(2023-Mar-20) | 21 (123 obs) | 0.0317 AU (4.74 million km) | ± 3 million km | N/A[10] | N/A | N/A |
Date & time | Nominal distance |
---|---|
2046-Feb-14 13:15 ± 72 minutes | 4730116 km[3] |
Risk corridor as it was known on 3 March 2023 with a 4-day observation arc and 55 observations. The asteroid would have most likely impacted thePacific Ocean. At the time of the potential impactor, the asteroid is most likely to miss Earth by about 4.7 million km and has a3-sigma uncertainty region of± 3 million km.[21] As the uncertainty region gets smaller the probability of impact can increase and then suddenly drop to 0.
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