Movatterモバイル変換

[0]ホーム
URL:

Wayback Machine
225 captures
27 Aug 2019 - 11 Jul 2025
JulOCTJan
Previous capture27Next capture
202120222023
success
fail
COLLECTED BY
Organization:Archive Team
Formed in 2009, the Archive Team (not to be confused with the archive.org Archive-It Team) is a rogue archivist collective dedicated to saving copies of rapidly dying or deleted websites for the sake of history and digital heritage. The group is 100% composed of volunteers and interested parties, and has expanded into a large amount of related projects for saving online and digital history.

History is littered with hundreds of conflicts over the future of a community, group, location or business that were "resolved" when one of the parties stepped ahead and destroyed what was there. With the original point of contention destroyed, the debates would fall to the wayside. Archive Team believes that by duplicated condemned data, the conversation and debate can continue, as well as the richness and insight gained by keeping the materials. Our projects have ranged in size from a single volunteer downloading the data to a small-but-critical site, to over 100 volunteers stepping forward to acquire terabytes of user-created data to save for future generations.

The main site for Archive Team is atarchiveteam.org and contains up to the date information on various projects, manifestos, plans and walkthroughs.

This collection contains the output of many Archive Team projects, both ongoing and completed. Thanks to the generous providing of disk space by the Internet Archive, multi-terabyte datasets can be made available, as well as in use by theWayback Machine, providing a path back to lost websites and work.

Our collection has grown to the point of having sub-collections for the type of data we acquire. If you are seeking to browse the contents of these collections, the Wayback Machine is the best first stop. Otherwise, you are free to dig into the stacks to see what you may find.

The Archive Team Panic Downloads are full pulldowns of currently extant websites, meant to serve as emergency backups for needed sites that are in danger of closing, or which will be missed dearly if suddenly lost due to hard drive crashes or server failures.

ArchiveBot is an IRC bot designed to automate the archival of smaller websites (e.g. up to a few hundred thousand URLs). You give it a URL to start at, and it grabs all content under that URL, records it in a WARC, and then uploads that WARC to ArchiveTeam servers for eventual injection into the Internet Archive (or other archive sites).

To use ArchiveBot, drop by #archivebot on EFNet. To interact with ArchiveBot, you issue commands by typing it into the channel. Note you will need channel operator permissions in order to issue archiving jobs. The dashboard shows the sites being downloaded currently.

There is a dashboard running for the archivebot process athttp://www.archivebot.com.

ArchiveBot's source code can be found athttps://github.com/ArchiveTeam/ArchiveBot.

TIMESTAMPS
loading
The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20221027164338/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1474-y
Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Advertisement

Nature

Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils

Naturevolume 572, pages520–523 (2019)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Boreal forest fires emit large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere primarily through the combustion of soil organic matter1,2,3. During each fire, a portion of this soil beneath the burned layer can escape combustion, leading to a net accumulation of carbon in forests over multiple fire events4. Climate warming and drying has led to more severe and frequent forest fires5,6,7, which threaten to shift the carbon balance of the boreal ecosystem from net accumulation to net loss1, resulting in a positive climate feedback8. This feedback will occur if organic-soil carbon that escaped burning in previous fires, termed ‘legacy carbon’, combusts. Here we use soil radiocarbon dating to quantitatively assess legacy carbon loss in the 2014 wildfires in the Northwest Territories of Canada2. We found no evidence for the combustion of legacy carbon in forests that were older than the historic fire-return interval of northwestern boreal forests9. In forests that were in dry landscapes and less than 60 years old at the time of the fire, legacy carbon that had escaped burning in the previous fire cycle was combusted. We estimate that 0.34 million hectares of young forests (<60 years) that burned in the 2014 fires could have experienced legacy carbon combustion. This implies a shift to a domain of carbon cycling in which these forests become a net source—instead of a sink—of carbon to the atmosphere over consecutive fires. As boreal wildfires continue to increase in size, frequency and intensity7, the area of young forests that experience legacy carbon combustion will probably increase and have a key role in shifting the boreal carbon balance.

This is a preview of subscription content,access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Subscribe to Journal

Get full journal access for 1 year

204,58 €

only 4,01 € per issue

Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

$32.00

All prices are NET prices.

Fig. 1: Hypothesized patterns of legacy C presence and combustion as a proportion of total organic-soil depth across the soil moisture gradient of a boreal forest.
Fig. 2: Radiocarbon concentration Δ14C in the atmosphere over time, Δ14C values of soil-depth increments and atmospheric concentration of14C during the year in which the stand established.
Fig. 3: Predicted presence and combustion of legacy carbon.

Data availability

The raw data are included in Fig.2 and are available from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC)48. Data for emissions are archived at ORNL DAAC41,48.

Code availability

The R code for emissions is archived with the original publication2. The R code used for all analyses in this study is available from the corresponding author upon request.

References

  1. Bond-Lamberty, B., Peckham, S. D., Ahl, D. E. & Gower, S. T. Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance.Nature450, 89–92 (2007).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Walker, X. J. et al. Cross-scale controls on carbon emissions from boreal forest megafires.Glob. Change Biol.24, 4251–4265 (2018).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Amiro, B. D. et al. Direct carbon emissions from Canadian forest fires, 1959–1999.Can. J. For. Res.31, 512–525 (2001).

    Article CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Chapin, F. S. et al. Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods.Ecosystems9, 1041–1050 (2006).

    Article CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Kasischke, E. S. & Turetsky, M. R. Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region—spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska.Geophys. Res. Lett.33, 09703 (2006).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Balshi, M. S. et al. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach.Glob. Change Biol.15, 578–600 (2009).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  7. de Groot, W. J., Flannigan, M. D. & Cantin, A. S. Climate change impacts on future boreal fire regimes.For. Ecol. Manage.294, 35–44 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Li, F., Lawrence, D. M. & Bond-Lamberty, B. Impact of fire on global land surface air temperature and energy budget for the 20th century due to changes within ecosystems.Environ. Res. Lett.12, 044014 (2017); corrigendum12, 069501 (2017).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  9. Johnstone, J. F. et al. Fire, climate change, and forest resilience in interior Alaska.Can. J. For. Res.40, 1302–1312 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Kelly, R. et al. Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years.Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA110, 13055–13060 (2013).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Johnson, E. A.Fire and Vegetation Dynamics (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1992).

  12. Little, D., Farrell, E. & Collins, J. Land-use legacies and soil development in semi-natural ecosystems in the marginal uplands of Ireland.Catena30, 83–98 (1997).

    Article CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Rogers, B. M., Soja, A. J., Goulden, M. L. & Randerson, J. T. Influence of tree species on continental differences in boreal fires and climate feedbacks.Nat. Geosci.8, 228–234 (2015).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Turetsky, M. R. et al. Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands.Nat. Geosci.4, 27–31 (2011).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  15. Boby, L. A., Schuur, E. A., Mack, M. C., Verbyla, D. & Johnstone, J. F. Quantifying fire severity, carbon, and nitrogen emissions in Alaska’s boreal forest.Ecol. Appl.20, 1633–1647 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Lorenz, K. & Lal, R. inCarbon Sequestration in Forest Ecosystems (eds Lorenz, K. & Lal, R.) 159–205 (Springer, 2010).

  17. Harden, J. W. et al. The role of fire in the boreal carbon budget.Glob. Change Biol.6, 174–184 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Hoy, E. E., Turetsky, M. R. & Kasischke, E. S. More frequent burning increases vulnerability of Alaskan boreal black spruce forests.Environ. Res. Lett.11, 095001 (2016).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  19. Walker, X. J. et al. Soil organic layer combustion in boreal black spruce and jack pine stands of the Northwest Territories, Canada.Int. J. Wildland Fire27, 125–134 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Johnstone, J. F., Hollingsworth, T. N. & Chapin, F. S.A Key for Predicting Postfire Successional Trajectories in Black Spruce Stands of Interior Alaska. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-767 (US Department of Agriculture, 2008).

  21. Mack, M. C. et al. Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire.Nature475, 489–492 (2011).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. Levin, I. & Hesshaimer, V. Radiocarbon – a unique tracer of global carbon cycle dynamics.Radiocarbon42, 69–80 (2000).

    Article CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Hayes, D. J. et al. Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles25, GB3018 (2011).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  24. van der Werf, G. R. et al. Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016.Earth Syst. Sci. Data9, 697–720 (2017).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  25. Pellegrini, A. F. A. et al. Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity.Nature553, 194–198 (2018).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Schuur, E. A. G. et al. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.Nature520, 171–179 (2015).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Minayeva, T. Yu. et al. Carbon accumulation in soils of forest and bog ecosystems of southern Valdai in the Holocene.Biol. Bull.35, 524–532 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Young, A. M., Higuera, P. E., Duffy, P. A. & Hu, F. S. Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change.Ecography40, 606–617 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Yue, X. et al. Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality.Atmos. Chem. Phys.15, 10033–10055 (2015).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. Cook, E. R. & Kairiukstis, L.Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences (Springer Science and Business Media, 1990).

  31. Trumbore, S. E. & Harden, J. W. Accumulation and turnover of carbon in organic and mineral soils of the BOREAS northern study area.J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.102, 28817–28830 (1997).

    Article ADS CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. Melvin, A. M. et al. Differences in ecosystem carbon distribution and nutrient cycling linked to forest tree species composition in a mid-successional boreal forest.Ecosystems18, 1472–1488 (2015).

    Article CAS  Google Scholar 

  33. Trumbore, S. E. et al. inRadiocarbon and Climate Change: Mechanisms, Applications and Laboratory Techniques (eds Schuur, E. A. G. et al.) 279–315 (Springer, 2016).

  34. Vogel, J. S., Southon, J. R. & Nelson, D. E. Catalyst and binder effects in the use of filamentous graphite for AMS.Nucl. Instrum. Methods Phys. Res. B29, 50–56 (1987).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  35. Schuur, E. A. G., Druffel, E. R. & Trumbore, S. E.Radiocarbon and Climate Change: Mechanisms, Applications and Laboratory Techniques (Springer, 2016).

  36. de Groot, W. J. et al. Estimating direct carbon emissions from Canadian wildland fires.Int. J. Wildland Fire16, 593–606 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Fraser, R. H., Li, Z. & Cihlar, J. Hotspot and NDVI differencing synergy (HANDS): a new technique for burned area mapping over boreal forest.Remote Sens. Environ.74, 362–376 (2000).

    Article ADS  Google Scholar 

  38. Burton, P. J., Parisien, M.-A., Hicke, J. A., Hall, R. J. & Freeburn, J. T. Large fires as agents of ecological diversity in the North American boreal forest.Int. J. Wildland Fire17, 754–767 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Parisien, M.-A. et al. Spatial patterns of forest fires in Canada, 1980–1999.Int. J. Wildland Fire15, 361–374 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Stocks, B. J. et al. Large forest fires in Canada, 1959–1997.J. Geophys. Res.107, 8149 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Walker, X. J. et al. ABoVE: wildfire carbon emissions and burned plot characteristics, NWT, CA, 2014–2016.ORNL DAAChttps://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1561 (2018).

  42. R Development Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing (2018).

  43. Heinze, G., Ploner, M., Dunkler, D. & Southworth, H. logistf: Firth’s bias-reduced logistic regression (2016).

  44. Heinze, G. & Schemper, M. A solution to the problem of separation in logistic regression.Stat. Med.21, 2409–2419 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R.Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach (Springer Science and Business Media, 2003).

  46. Burnham, K. P., Anderson, D. R. & Huyvaert, K. P. AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: some background, observations, and comparisons.Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol.65, 23–35 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Hosmer, D. W., Lemeshow, S. & Sturdivant, R. X.Applied Logistic Regression (John Wiley & Sons, 2013).

  48. Walker, X. J. et al. ABoVE: characterization of carbon dynamics in burned forest plots, NWT, Canada, 2014.ORNL DAAChttps://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1664 (2019).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This project was supported by funding awarded to M.C.M. from NSF DEB RAPID grant number 1542150, and from the NASA Arctic Boreal and Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) Legacy Carbon grant NNX15AT71A; by NSERC Discovery Grants to J.F.J. and M.R.T.; by Government of the Northwest Territories Cumulative Impacts Monitoring Program Funding project number 170 to J.L.B.; by an NSERC-PDF to N.J.D.; and by Polar Knowledge Canada’s Northern Science Training Program funding awarded to Canadian field assistants. Logistical and financial support was provided through the Government of the Northwest Territories–Wilfrid Laurier University Partnership Agreement.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA

    Xanthe J. Walker, Christopher Ebert, Scott Goetz, Edward A. G. Schuur & Michelle C. Mack

  2. Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

    Jennifer L. Baltzer & Nicola J. Day

  3. Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

    Steven G. Cumming

  4. School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems (SICCS), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA

    Scott Goetz

  5. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA

    Scott Goetz, Stefano Potter & Brendan M. Rogers

  6. Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

    Jill F. Johnstone

  7. Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA

    Jill F. Johnstone

  8. Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA

    Edward A. G. Schuur & Michelle C. Mack

  9. Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada

    Merritt R. Turetsky

  10. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA

    Merritt R. Turetsky

Authors
  1. Xanthe J. Walker

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jennifer L. Baltzer

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Steven G. Cumming

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Nicola J. Day

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  5. Christopher Ebert

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  6. Scott Goetz

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  7. Jill F. Johnstone

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  8. Stefano Potter

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  9. Brendan M. Rogers

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  10. Edward A. G. Schuur

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  11. Merritt R. Turetsky

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  12. Michelle C. Mack

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

M.C.M. conceived the study with help from S.G., J.F.J., E.A.G.S. and X.J.W. M.C.M., X.J.W., J.F.J., M.R.T., J.L.B., S.G.C. and N.J.D. designed the field sampling. X.J.W. and N.J.D. collected the field data. X.J.W. and C.E. completed the laboratory work with technical support from M.C.M. and E.A.G.S. X.J.W. analysed the data with help from M.C.M. and E.A.G.S. B.M.R. and S.P. provided the data and wrote the Methods section ‘Estimation of young burned area’. X.J.W. wrote the manuscript and all co-authors edited the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence toXanthe J. Walker.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Peer review informationNature thanks Mary Edwards and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Extended data figures and tables

Extended Data Fig. 1 Area burned in the 2014 wildfires in the Northwest Territories of Canada that was considered as young burned (younger than 60 years at the time of fire).

a,b, Percentage (a) and cumulative percentage (b) of area burned in the 2014 wildfires, expressed in years since the fire and year of burn. Ina, the dashed line represents the best fit between the observed values in the fire databases and the solid line represents the linear extrapolation to 1954. Grey shading indicates the standard error of the observed values and red shading indicates the predicted standard error (y = 0.01430x + 0.01097;R2 = 0.09;P < 0.05).

Extended Data Table 1 Firth’s bias-reduced logistic regression results
Extended Data Table 2t-test results
Extended Data Table 3 SOL depth and carbon in pre-fire and burned pools
Extended Data Table 4 Comparison between Δ14C values of two soil profiles in five sites
Extended Data Table 5 Results of Firth’s bias-reduced, mixed-effect model and simple logistic regression

Rights and permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Walker, X.J., Baltzer, J.L., Cumming, S.G.et al. Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils.Nature572, 520–523 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1474-y

Download citation

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by ourTerms andCommunity Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Associated Content

Collection

Permafrost in a warming world

Soils linked to climate change

  • Cornelia Rumpel
NatureNews & Views

Advertisement

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for theNature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox.Sign up for Nature Briefing
[8]ページ先頭
©2009-2025 Movatter.jp