Anticipating Critical Transitions
- Marten Scheffer1,2,*,
- Stephen R. Carpenter3,
- Timothy M. Lenton4,
- Jordi Bascompte5,
- William Brock6,
- Vasilis Dakos1,5,
- Johan van de Koppel7,8,
- Ingrid A. van de Leemput1,
- Simon A. Levin9,
- Egbert H. van Nes1,
- Mercedes Pascual10,11,
- John Vandermeer10
- 1Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Post Office Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
- 2South American Institute for Resilience and Sustainability Studies (SARAS), Maldonado, Uruguay.
- 3Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, 680 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
- 4College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK.
- 5Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain.
- 6Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
- 7Spatial Ecology Department, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Post Office Box 140, 4400AC, Yerseke, Netherlands.
- 8Community and Conservation Ecology Group, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Studies (CEES), University of Groningen, Post Office Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, Netherlands.
- 9Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544–1003, USA.
- 10University of Michigan and Howard Hughes Medical Institute, 2045 Kraus Natural Science Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109–1048, USA.
- 11Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA.
- *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:marten.scheffer{at}wur.nl
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Vol. 338, Issue 6105, pp. 344-348
DOI: 10.1126/science.1225244
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Abstract
Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
