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The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20160130030446/http://commentandoutlook.blogspot.fr/search/label/Russia

Reflections on the modern world from an independent point of view. Articles, essays, and critiques in politics, philosophy, international relations, and culture. Contact: finn.andreen@gmail.com

Showing posts with labelRussia.Show all posts
Showing posts with labelRussia.Show all posts

Thursday, May 15, 2014

The Concept of Eurasia - Part III

Ideally, geopolitical conceptssuchas“Eurasia” shouldconsider thedivergence that exists between the interests of the state and the interests of the people.Bothfrom the point of view ofEurope and Russia, “Eurasia”represents ageopoliticalinterestofahigherorder.As can be expected, thepeople'sinterestintherealisationofEurasia,both for a Russiancitizenandfora Europeancitizen,isthereforedoubtful at best.Thepeople hasan interest in thelowerorderactivities of thestate that concern thedefenceandthesecurityof the nation.Abstractgeopolitical concepts like “Eurasia” mean almost nothing to thecommon man. 

Indeed,it is difficult to understand howtheaverage Russian citizen mightbemore secure ifRussiaestablishestheEurasianEconomic Union withothernations.Thebasic security of Russian citizens is still far from guaranteedtoday; the Russian state thereforeoughtto deal withother more importantinternal priorities- thereal interests of the Russian people

It is also difficult to understand howtheaverage European citizen mightbesafer and more secure iftheEUsomehow managed tointegrateeconomically and politicallywith Russia.Andit is highly dubious,tosay the least,whetherthe peoplesof Europewouldhavemuch togain bybringingUkraine into the Europeaneconomic and political sphere. On the contrary, before potentially bearing fruits, anyrapprochement with Ukraine would have substantial costs for Europe, which hitherto have been born by Russia.

Thepublics of all nationsshouldtherefore make efforts to inform themselvesabout theirnation's”geopolitical plans, and ask themselveswhethertherealisation of the state'sgeopoliticalinterestscanbeadvantageoustothem.Inthe case of “Eurasia,”thepeopleshouldat leastrequestfromtheirelectedrepresentatives,theanswer tothefollowingquestions:Willtherealisationofthis geopolitical interest make the publicsafer?Ifyes, then in what way? If yes, then whatpublicresourceswouldbespent in order to do so?[1] 

Unfortunately,boththesequestionsand their answers are usually absent from public debate.Clearly,thiswouldnot be the caseinanyreasonablydemocraticpoliticalsystem, where the interests of the state are interests of the people.



Notes: 

[1]Forinstance, the cost of the Iraq warwasonlydisclosed years later to the publicandthe cost was estimated to be much higher than initially declared.See, for instance, Stiglitz and Blimes, Vanity Fair, April 2008.www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/04/stiglitz200804

Thursday, May 1, 2014

The Concept of Eurasia - Part II


Thequestion of the realisation of “Eurasia” requires an analysis oftheorder of priorityofthis geopolitical interest. From this point of view,“Eurasia”isan ambitious goal for both Europe and Russia;it is ageopolitical interest of ahigh order,farfrom the basic interest of nationaldefenceand security.

However,“Eurasia”isamoreimportantgeopoliticalinteresttorealiseforRussiathanforEurope.Russiaconsiders,naturally,that one of its fundamental geopolitical interests is to exercisesome form of controlofwhatit calls its“nearerabroad.”[1]Europe'smotivationfor realisingits ownversionof“Eurasia”does not have as high priority,fora number of reasons, one being the existence ofsecurityagreements with the USA.Itis not surprising, therefore, thatRussia'srealisation ofitsviewof“Eurasia”isina far more advancedstatecompared tothe European one, whichisat the momentonlyanidea.Europe has not yet fully managed tobring Ukraine into its fold, whereas thecustoms union betweenRussia, Belarus and Kazakhstan is nowcalledtheEurasianEconomic Union,and RussiahassuccessfullyconvincedArmenia,Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstantojoin as members in 2015.[2]In other words,Russiaisin the process ofaddingeconomic integration to a military integration that has largely takenplace alreadybetween thesecountries. 

Someof thetypesofcoercivemethodsthatare available for the realisation of geopolitical interestsareused in the case of “Eurasia”.Beingthe more powerful nation,Russiaisnaturallyusingmanysuchmeansin order toincite,orforce,othernations into its sphere of influence. This has been the case withArmenia,andother nationsthatwill adhere totheEurasianEconomic UnionwhichRussiawilllead.Europehas also been trying to use some of thesecoerciveforeignpolicy tools in order to get Russia to show more interest inanintegration withEurope.[3]Thishasbeenevidentnot only intheEU'shithertoinconclusiveapproachtowardsUkraine, but alsoinits interaction withRussia,suchas the latest sanctions show.[4]TheEuropean Unionconsiders,rightly, that the biggest obstacle to the realisation ofitsconcept of “Eurasia,” is the Russian government.Butcoercive methodsarefarmoreusefulandeffectivewhenstronger nationsuse them ondecidedlyweaker ones.Therefore,whileRussiacan use coercive methods to realise its view of “Eurasia,”Europecanonlyrealiseitsownversionof“Eurasia”by consensual means. 

Thereare two conditions for consensual realisation of geopoliticalinterests; firstly, the “Eurasian” interests should becomplementary between Europe and Russia. This is certainly not thecase, since the two parties do not even define “Eurasia” in thesame way. In fact, the European and Russian definitions of “Eurasia”cannot both be realised at the same time. Further, Europe and Russiaare currently opposed in several important geopolitical areas, themost important of which being the struggle for the control ofUkraine.[5] This is not the kind of environment in which the Europeandefinition of “Eurasia” can be realised. The Russian view of“Eurasia,” on the other hand, has more probability of successsince it does not depend on Europe (with the exception of Ukraine,which will remain problematic for Russia in the future). 

Thesecond condition, whichmustalso be fulfilled in order to realise“Eurasia” by consensualagreement,requires that there is no third party with the capabilityandinterestin thwartingtheseefforts.Hereis anotherstrongreasonwhy“Eurasia” cannot be realisedbyEurope:theinterestofthe United States is inconflictwith these“Eurasian”interests.Thoughthe USA and Europe are close allies, theUSAopposes the European viewof“Eurasia”andcannotallowit to happen.Forthe US, asBrzezinskiwrote,“itis imperative thatnoEurasianchallenger emerges capable of dominating Eurasia and thus of alsochallenging America.”[6]Currently,Washington easily realises this interest,giventhepoliticalinfluencetheyhaveoverEurope.[7]TheUS uses its system of military allegiance (NATO) in order to bothdominate Europe and contain Russian geopolitical expansion.[8]RegardingtheRussian “Eurasia,”thoughtheUSmaynotbeabletopreventitfrom becoming reality,theUS isalsomoretoleranttoit.TheUnitedStatesisnotmuchconcerned aboutRussia'srealisationofthisinterest,sinceitunderstandsthatRussiawillneverbeachallengerforglobal hegemonyunlessithasintegratedwith a major economy.[9]Thisis the reason the US is carefully monitoring the currentrapprochementthat is taking place between Russia and China.[10]Inmany ways, the strategic and economicsynergiesbetweenRussia and Chinaaregreaterinthelong termthantheonesbetweenRussia and Europe.[11] 

Itis clear, therefore, that the realisation of a geopolitical interestlike “Eurasia” greatly depends on the national perspective. This post and the previous one have shown that a geopolitical interest and theways to realise this interest require radically different approaches. The third and finalpost on this topic of “Eurasia” will concern the necessary distinctionbetween state and people. In other words, the question that must beasked is to what respect do the people really have an “interest”in “Eurasia”?



Notes: 

[1]In Russian :“ближнеезарубежье” 

[2]Armenia decided inSeptember2013to join the“Eurasia”CustomsUnion.See “Russia Cancels Export Duties for Gas and Diamonds to Armenia”from Ria Novosti, at:en.ria.ru/russia/20131202/185221476/Russia-Cancels-Export-Duties-for-Gas-and-Diamonds-to-Armenia.html 

[3]See for instance,“The EU has accused Russiaof implementing protectionist measures in contravention of the WTOrules. The European Commission, meanwhile, is expected to shortlyunveil a number of anti-trust charges against Russian state-ownedenergy company Gazprom.”See article, EU-Russia talks downgraded amid tensions over Ukraine,The Irish Times, January 28, 2014. 

[4]Forinformation onEuropeansanctionsagainst Russia, see for instance, “Russia hints at tit-for-tatresponse to EU sanctions over Crimea”, The Guardian, Saturday 22March 2014. Source: 
www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/22/crimea-russia-response-eu-sanctions-ukraine 
RegardingUkraine, see for instance,articleby Finian Cunningham,“Ukraineand the Bigger Picture of US and European Assault on Russia’sSphere of Influence”,Dec6 2013.Also,by the same author: “Ukraine: Imagine WesternInterferencein Reverse… That Would Be An Impossible European Dream”, Dec 16,2013. Sources at: 
www.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/12/06/ukraine-and-bigger-picture-us-and-european-assault-russia-sphere-influence.htmlwww.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/12/16/ukraine-imagine-western-interference-reverse-would-impossible-european-dream.html 

[5]See for instance the following analysis:“The EU Agreement [for Ukraine] excludes simultaneous membership ina Russian-led customs union and would thus cut off Ukraine from itsmain trading partner, with which Ukraine’s industry and transportroutes are closely connected. The abolition of customs duties onEuropean goods would also mean bankruptcy for many Ukrainianindustries.
Theterms of the agreement, which include the introduction of EU rulesfor labor market deregulation, the privatization of state enterprisesand a reduction in the public debt, would have a social impactsimilar to the EU austerity programs imposed on Greece, Romania andother countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is alreadydenying Ukraine a much-needed credit because the government refusesto hike the price of gas by 40 percent—a move that would inevitablyresult in the death of many unemployed people and pensioners unableto pay their heating bills.
TheAssociation Agreement would turn the country into an extendedworkbench for German and European companies, which could produce atlower wage rates than those in China. At the same time, the country’snatural resources, its vast and fertile landmass, and its domesticmarket of 46 million inhabitants make Ukraine a mouthwateringprospect for German and European businesses.
Theagreement would also strengthen the EU’s hand against Russia. Acustoms union or Eurasian Union comprising Russia and the Ukrainewould have had a significantly stronger position in tradenegotiations with the EU than an isolated Russia. 
Germany,the EU and the US are pursuing not only economic, but alsogeopolitical, objectives in Ukraine. Given Russia’s loss ofinfluence in Eastern Europe since the dissolution of the SovietUnion, the incorporation of Ukraine into the EU would push Russia offto the edge of Europe.”from“The Struggle forUkraine”, from World Socialist Web Site, Dec 6, 2013.(www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/12/06/pers-d06.html?view=mobilearticle) 

[6]Z.Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard(BasicBooks), p. xiv.Thisis the same view that George Friedman has:“The United States doesn’t need to win wars. It needs to simplydisrupt things so the other side can’t build up sufficient strengthto challenge it.” The Next 100 Years, p58. (Doubleday).Source:www.fd.unl.pt/docentes_docs/ma/amg_MA_11180.pdf 

[7]Itis well known that though theUSandEurope have different geopolitical interests, the US is the strongerparty and often usesEuropeas a proxy for its dealings in “Eurasia.”Europeangovernmentsand institutions aresodominated politically and militarily by the United States, that thoseEuropeanleaderswhosupport this concept of “Eurasia” cannot be fully sincere,whether they realise this or not. A real possibility forEuropeanversion of“Eurasia”can only come if and when Europemanagestocompletelygetrid ofthisUSdominancewhich has existed since the end of WWII.However,aslong as European companies have significant commercial interests inthe US, this is not likely to happen.Andthis certainly cannot happen with the NATO policy as it is today.

[8]Forinformation onNATO'saggressive military positioning next to Russia's borders (see forinstancewww.strategic-culture.org/news/2013/10/17/nato-steadfast-jazz-exercise-chill-of-cold-war.html 

[9]Anotherpossibility might be to make its own economy globally competitive,but this is not likely to happen even in the long term.

[10]“Eurasia”is nolongerthe most important geopolitical goal in the 21stcenturyforthe United States:itis Asia, and in particular, China. USnowhasa “Pivot to Asia” strategy.Seearticle inTheAtlantic “What Exactly Does it Mean That the US is Pivoting toAsia?”,byMatt Schiavenza, April 15, 2013. Source:www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/04/what-exactly-does-it-mean-that-the-us-is-pivoting-to-asia/274936/ 

[11]Russia is turning its attention to the East, and inparticular to China (the Law changing the Russian time zones is oneexample, bringing Moscow 4 hours from both London and Beijing). Chinahas a strong need for the Russian natural resources lying in relativeproximity. The trade between the two countries is expected to soonreach $100Bln per year. From 2012 to 2013, China's FDI into Russiawas multiplied by 6. Further, China has now declared a certainpreference for the Russian rouble, and recently Russia and China havedeclared that they have a “strategic relationship”. A new deal concerning gas delivery over 30 years has just been signed. See followingsources: 
rt.com/business/rosneft-china-sinopec-oil-537/ 
www.contrepoints.org/2014/01/16/153513-investissements-chinois-en-russie-multiplies-par-six-en-2013?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
www.bbc.com/news/business-27503017
 

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

The Concept of Eurasia - Part I


The concept of “Eurasia” illustrates well the problematic nature of geopolitics. “Eurasia” is one of the most important geopolitical concepts; as Zbigniew Brzezinski said, “ever since the continents started interacting politically, some five hundred years ago, Eurasia has been the center of world power.”[1] “Eurasia” encapsulates the problematic aspects of geopolitics, starting with semantics. Indeed, it is a portmanteau word with a slightly artificial ring to it, somewhat clumsily combining the words “Europe” and “Asia.” It is a typical geopolitical term; i.e. one whose different definitions reflect nations' different geopolitical interests. 

Originally, “Eurasia” is a geographical notion: in this sense, it is simply the biggest continent; the combined landmass of Europe and Asia. However, geopolitically, the word has several different meanings, reflecting the specific geopolitical interests of each nation. In the widest possible sense, the geopolitical definition of “Eurasia” is consistent with its geographical area. This is sometimes the way the word is understood in countries located at the fringes of, or outside, this area. This is generally what is meant by “Eurasia” in political circles in the USA, Japan and India.[2] Two other, narrower definitions of “Eurasia” are also worth noting: the European one and the Russian one.

WhenWestern European political scientists talk about “Eurasia”, theygenerally mean Russia integrated into Europe (including Ukraine ofcourse), economically, politically, and even militarily. At leastsince Napoleon, if not since Peter the Great, European strategistshave understood the importance of allying with Russia, and thepotential consequences of failing to do so. However, the currentEuropean view of “Eurasia” is, for obvious reasons, a far morerecent concept, having emerged only in the last two decades, afterthe collapse of the Soviet Union. Incidentally, this political entityis about half the size, and has only 15% of the population, of thegeographical “Eurasia.” Two observations are necessary withrespect to what is assumed to be “Europe.” Firstly, in this case,“Europe” is seen as a single economic and political entity; i.e.the European Union.[3] Secondly,inthiscontextof“Eurasia,”Europe”primarilymeansGermany.Not only has Germanyemergedas thede factoleaderof Europe botheconomicallyand politicallyafter therecent financial crisis,butitalsohasdeeperhistorical ties with Russiathan most other nations ofthe European Union. It also hasastronger geopoliticalinterest in apoliticalandeconomicintegrationwithRussia, than the rest of the EU.[4] 

Therefore, from this Western European perspective, “Eurasia” means specifically the idea of Russia's close integration with the European Union in general and with Germany in particular (not the other way around, of course). What would this European concept of “Eurasia” mean in practice? As always, integration between nations can take place in several ways; economically, politically, militarily, and even culturally. “Eurasia” would mean at least the following, from a European point of view: at an economic level, the signing of trade agreements removing trade barriers and lowering tariffs as well as removing legal and bureaucratic hurdles to European investment in Russia; at a political level, an agreement of a EU integration model for Ukraine that is acceptable to Russia, the reduction of Russian border controls and Russian visa restrictions between the two entities, and increasing institutional collaboration; and at a military level, closer Russian alignment with the European Common Security and Defence Policy as well as, inevitably, NATO, as well as some coordination between security and military forces, and a substantial increase in procurement of European weapons by the Russian armed forces.[5] Most of these cooperation areas are already included in the concept of “Four Common Spaces” which was established in 2003 between the EU and Russia, but funded by the former.[6] 

Europe'sgeopolitical interest in“Eurasia”,asunderstood byEuropeanpolicy-makers,isclear and the would-be advantagesfor Europe are well known.[7]However,thoughRussia wouldmakesome gains in the long termfromsuchanintegrationwithEurope,Russia'sgeopoliticalinterestsareclearlynotcomplementarywiththeEuropeanversionof“Eurasia.”[8]Asone of the few independent nations of the world, Russia insists onestablishing relationswithEurope,“on a basis ofequalityand mutual benefit.”[9]Thisis something thatEuropeneitherhastheinterest, nor the obligation, to accept.Notsurprisingly,andoften to the frustration of European policy-makers,naturallyinterestedin pushing their ownagendaof further integration,Russiahasdifferentgeopoliticalinterests,asbecomesclearfromtheRussiandefinition of “Eurasia.” 

TheRussian concept of “Eurasia” is very different from the Europeanone. It is a view that has older roots than the European one - notsurprisingly, considering Russia's geographic position. Russianpolitologists traditionally view Russia itself, being both Europeanand Asian, as “Eurasian.” The geopolitical area of the Russianconcept of “Eurasia” corresponded initially more or less to theland area of Imperial Russia in 1914, including parts of EasternEurope.[10] There is undeniably an influence of Panslavism in thisdefinition; originally the idea of “Eurasia” was moreromantically rooted in natural geography. It was the idea that thepeople scattered across the land called “Eurasia” shared commonspiritual values due to its geographic traits, such as a flat landwith few coastlines but important rivers, a particular climate(continental, often harshly so), and a certain landscape (steppe, taiga,tundra). This idea was more or less realised, but withdifficulty, during the last phases of the Russian Empire and was thenrealised again with the Soviet Union after 1945, though not stablyenough for enduring success.

Today,though this Russian geopolitical interest still exists, the physical area of the Russian“Eurasia” is now more realistically assessed. The Russian viewtoday is that “Eurasia” consists of the land lying between Europeand Asia proper; namely, those made up of Western and Central Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, part of Caucasus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, andKyrgyzstan.[11] Just as in the case of the European concept of“Eurasia,” the Russian version of “Eurasia” is a geopolitical interestthat underpins foreign policy in that part of the world. Thus, it isnot surprising that today one of Russia's main geopolitical interestslies in ever closer integration with those countries that itconsiders part of “Eurasia.”

Thisreview of the main definitions of the concept of “Eurasia”clearly bring forth the many different geopolitical interests that are understood by this word. The next post will treat theconcept of “Eurasia” by looking at the important tacticalaspect of geopolitics; namely the question of therealisation of theconcept of “Eurasia.”



Notes: 

[1]Z. Brzezinski, highly influential NationalSecurity Adviser under US President Jimmy Carter. The quote is fromhis book “The Grand Chessboard” (Basic Books), p. xiii. Further:“A power that dominates“Eurasia” would control two of the world’s three most advancedand economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map alsosuggests that control over “Eurasia” would almost automaticallyentail Africa’s subordination, rendering the Western Hemisphere andOceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent.About 75 per cent of the world’s people live in “Eurasia”, andmost of the world’s physical wealth is there as well, both in itsenterprises and underneath its soil. “Eurasia” accounts for aboutthree-fourths of theworld’sknown energy resources.” (p.31) 

[2]For instance, this isthe wayZbigniewBrzezinskisees ”Eurasia”,naturally taking the US position. 

[3]Indeed, both Ukraineand Turkey have their own very specific historical, economic, andgeopolitical relationship with Russia. And as for “Europe”meaning the EU in this case, this is not to say that the EU is notstill quite farfrom being such a “singleeconomic and political entity.” 

[4]Thisis all the moretruetoday since Germany in thefinancial crisis has further increased its economic and politicaldominationof the European Union.Atthe same time, theBritishareprobablydistancingthemselvesfrom the EU, if notdejureyet, at leastrhetorically,and France hasdeep structural problems of its own, preventing it from driving theEU project together with Germany like it hasin the past.Germanyexport-oriented industry is perfectly suited to address the Russianmarket,and at the same timeit needs Russia's resources.Further, Germany has alreadygotthemost developed economic tieswithRussia of any major nation. 

[5]Russia has recentlybought French war ships. See RIA Novosti “France Floats Out FirstRussian Mistral”, Oct 15, 2013(en.ria.ru/trend/warship_01102009/) 

[6]At the St. Petersburg Summit in May 2003,the EU and Russia agreed to reinforce their co-operation by creating,in the long term, four common spaces in the framework of thePartnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1997: a common economicspace; a common space of freedom, security and justice; a space ofco-operation in the field of external security; and a space ofresearch, education, and cultural exchange. 
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#The_Four_Common_Spaces 

[7]Main advantages:Thewealthy but strugglingeconomiesoftheEuropean Unioncouldcertainly benefitfromtighterintegrationwiththeRussianeconomyforthe resourcesthelatterhas to offer. Theseinclude boththehumanand naturalresourcesof Russia.Thereis an obvious interest in gettingcloseaccess to alarge,low-wageand relatively well-educatedpopulation.Itwould bringenergy securityto Europe by removingonceand for all thepoliticaland bureaucratic obstacles to the cheapandjointuse ofRussia'srichnaturalresources(gasand oil, but not only).Economically,therealisation of this concept of“Eurasia”would mean thatEuropeancompanies would gain direct access to the hugeinvestmentneedsofRussiansociety.Fromamilitary perspective, a closer collaboration with Russia would addprecisely the element ofhard”power that Europelacksin order tofulfil itsgeopolitical interest ofdominatingtheworldonceagain.Itwouldalsocloseonce and for all the securityissuethat Europeperceivesin havingan independentRussiasoclose to its easternborders,asthe adherence to NATO of many Eastern European countries show. 

[8]See for instance, thefollowing information about EU/Russian trade.RussiaEU trade,at:russianmission.eu/en/trade 

[9]See quotation fromMr. Lavrov, Russia ForeignMinister, at:russianmission.eu/en/brief-overview-relations 

[10]ThisRussianconceptof“Eurasia” can traceitsorigintocertainRussianémigrésinthe1920s Berlin, Pragueand Sofia.For more detailsregarding the entire paragraphabove,seeИсторияевразийского движения,at:www.gumer.info/bibliotek_Buks/Polit/nart/04.php 

[11]See for instance,this interesting discussion of the Russianview of “Eurasia.” Article by Dmitry Trenin, VPK daily, 29thJanuary 2013, at :rbth.co.uk/opinion/2013/01/29/revising_the_concept_of_“Eurasia”_22305.html 
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