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How close were U.S. Presidential Elections?



This page answers the question:
What is theSMALLEST number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

POPULAR VOTE
or
ELECTORAL VOTE?

Are you considering the Popular Vote or Electoral Vote?

Both! You can not correctly analyze U.S. Presidential Elections without takingboth methods into account. The popular vote tells you if the candidate won the state or not, while the electoral vote tells you how much that state was 'worth' in that election.

It is possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote, and therefore the election. It is also possible to win the election with less than 50% of the voting population. Both of these scenarios, as well as others, have happened in actual elections.

There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decidedby less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different.

That is what this page solves.What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?


Corrections, comments, suggestions? Send me ane-mail
Thank you, Mike Sheppard

2008
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ABC		WSJ

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2008

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
North Carolina 6847  4258507
Indiana 13006  2741186
New Hampshire 33828  707648
Iowa 70367  1516072
Florida 102289  8144225
Ohio 103416  5295486
Virginia 116159  3716763
All Other States     
TOTAL   445912   26379887
   
 2008 Election (Actual) 2008 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 2%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 2008

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
32
Bypercent of Voters needed:
18
Byvotes per electorate needed:
38

Source for Data:
Leip, David.2008 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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2004

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
New Mexico 2995  756304
Iowa 5030  1506908
Colorado 49762  2130330
All Other States     
TOTAL   57787   4393542
   
 2004 Election (Actual) 2004 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 1%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 2004

Note: Actual elector vote was 286-251-1 (see here). While it is true thathad Kerry won Ohio, he would have won the election, he would have needed 59,301 voters to switch their vote from Bush to win the state. That number is more than the 57,787 votes needed to affect the election that's listed here.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
20
Bypercent of Voters needed:
15
Byvotes per electorate needed:
30

Source for Data:
Leip, David.2004 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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2000

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Florida 269  5963110
All Other States     
TOTAL   269   5963110
   
 2000 Election (Actual) 2000 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 1%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 2000

Note: Actual elector vote was 271-266-1 (see here). While the 2000 election was not the closest in either popular vote or electoral vote, it was the closest in US history in terms of the smallest popular vote difference needed to affect the election. Compare with the election of1876.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
1
Bypercent of Voters needed:
1
Byvotes per electorate needed:
1

Source for Data:
Leip, David.2000 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1996

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Nevada 2366  464279
Kentucky 6666  1388708
Arizona 15608  1404405
New Mexico 20373  556074
Tennessee 22809  1894105
New Hampshire 24842  499175
Oregon 55745  1377760
Iowa 63808  1234075
Missouri 67960  2158065
Ohio 144170  4534434
Florida 151168  5303794
All Other States     
TOTAL   575515   20814874
   
 1996 Election (Actual) 1996 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 3%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1996

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
35
Bypercent of Voters needed:
29
Byvotes per electorate needed:
39

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1996 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1992

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
New Hampshire 3279  537215
Montana 5151  410583
Nevada 6661  506318
Georgia 6858  2321133
Delaware 11871  289620
Hawaii 21245  372842
Kentucky 23964  1492900
Colorado 33416  1569180
New Jersey 39671  3343594
Louisiana 41293  1790017
Ohio 45317  4939964
Tennessee 46111  1982638
All Other States     
TOTAL   284837   19556004
   
 1992 Election (Actual) 1992 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 2%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1992

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
29
Bypercent of Voters needed:
16
Byvotes per electorate needed:
31

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1992 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1988

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Vermont 4279  243333
South Dakota 9928  312991
Montana 10739  365674
New Mexico 12923  521287
Delaware 15497  249891
North Dakota 19411  297261
Maryland 24932  1714358
Maine 31782  555035
Connecticut 36829  1443394
Missouri 41668  2093228
Illinois 47500  4559120
Pennsylvania 52572  4536251
Colorado 53363  1372394
California 176343  9887064
All Other States     
TOTAL   537766   28151281
   
 1988 Election (Actual) 1988 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 2%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1988

Note: Actual elector vote was 426-111-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
33
Bypercent of Voters needed:
23
Byvotes per electorate needed:
33

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1988 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1984

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Rhode Island 7488  410492
Hawaii 18949  335846
Vermont 20068  234561
Delaware 25268  254572
Massachusetts 35666  2559453
Alaska 38186  207605
West Virginia 38680  735742
Wyoming 39936  188968
Montana 42855  384377
Maryland 45992  1675873
Nevada 48558  286667
Iowa 48735  1319805
New Mexico 52667  514370
Maine 60993  553144
Oregon 74611  1226527
Wisconsin 101477  2212016
Washington 122160  1883910
Tennessee 139250  1711993
Pennsylvania 178097  4844903
Georgia 181048  1776093
New York 272578  6806810
Illinois 310303  4819088
California 772246  9505423
All Other States     
TOTAL   2675811   44448238
   
 1984 Election (Actual) 1984 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 7%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1984

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
43
Bypercent of Voters needed:
36
Byvotes per electorate needed:
43

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1984 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1980

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Massachusetts 1915  2524298
Tennessee 2356  1617616
Arkansas 2562  837582
Delaware 2750  235668
Mississippi 5905  892620
Vermont 6354  213207
South Carolina 6824  890083
Alabama 8732  1341929
Maine 8775  523011
Kentucky 9429  1294627
North Carolina 19692  1855833
Louisiana 42201  1548591
Wisconsin 53631  2273221
New York 82730  6201959
Michigan 126847  3909725
Pennsylvania 162167  4561501
Illinois 188319  4749721
All Other States     
TOTAL   731189   35471192
   
 1980 Election (Actual) 1980 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 3%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1980

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
38
Bypercent of Voters needed:
25
Byvotes per electorate needed:
32

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1980 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1976

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Hawaii 3687  291301
Ohio 5559  4111873
All Other States     
TOTAL   9246   4403174
   
 1976 Election (Actual) 1976 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 1%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1976

Note: Actual elector vote was 297-240-1 (see here). It has been reported that Carter won the election with the states ofDelaware and Ohio However, Hawaii was closer in votes than Delaware and also carried enough electoral votes, with Ohio, to affect the outcome. Had Ford won Hawaii and Ohio he would have won the election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
11
Bypercent of Voters needed:
6
Byvotes per electorate needed:
14

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1976 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1972

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Alaska 11192  95219
Rhode Island 12870  415808
South Dakota 13266  307415
Delaware 24038  235516
Vermont 24488  186947
Nevada 24868  181766
Wyoming 28054  145570
Montana 31890  317603
Hawaii 33729  270274
North Dakota 36863  280514
Oregon 46964  927946
New Mexico 47262  385931
Maine 47938  417271
Minnesota 47962  1741652
New Hampshire 48645  334055
Idaho 59280  310379
Wisconsin 89629  1852890
Iowa 105001  1225944
Connecticut 127633  1384277
Washington 134401  1470847
South Carolina 144579  677880
Maryland 161763  1353812
Michigan 251144  3490325
Illinois 437354  4723236
California 563125  8367862
New York 620848  7161830
All Other States     
TOTAL   3174786   38262769
   
 1972 Election (Actual) 1972 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 9%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1972

Note: Actual elector vote was 520-17-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
44
Bypercent of Voters needed:
42
Byvotes per electorate needed:
44

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1972 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1968

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Alaska 1095  83035
Delaware 3761  214367
Nevada 6296  154218
Vermont 7444  161404
Missouri 10245  1809502
Wisconsin 30597  1691538
New Jersey 30631  2875395
Ohio 45215  3959698
All Other States     
TOTAL   135284   10949157
   
Margin: < 1%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1968

Note: Actual elector vote was 301-191-46 (see here). Although Wallace received 46 electoral votes, and won 5 states, the smallest change of popular votes needed to affect the election (listed above) did not need any votes to be changed from his count, so he is not listed in the table. Compare to the1924 election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
25
Bypercent of Voters needed:
4
Byvotes per electorate needed:
26

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1968 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1964

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Idaho 2682  292477
Wyoming 9361  142716
Alaska 10700  67259
Nevada 11623  135433
Nebraska 15231  584154
South Dakota 16452  293118
Utah 19474  400310
North Dakota 20789  258389
Florida 21300  1854481
Delaware 22314  201320
Montana 25608  278628
Vermont 26593  163089
New Mexico 31090  327615
Arkansas 35467  560426
Virginia 38353  1042267
Kansas 38725  857901
New Hampshire 39019  286094
Oklahoma 53585  932499
Tennessee 62992  1143946
North Carolina 87648  1424983
Colorado 89629  776986
Oregon 109120  786305
Indiana 129866  2091606
Iowa 141942  1184539
Texas 352310  2626811
California 646385  7057586
All Other States     
TOTAL   2058258   25770938
   
 1964 Election (Actual) 1964 Election (Theoretical) 
Margin: < 8%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1964

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
42
Bypercent of Voters needed:
40
Byvotes per electorate needed:
42

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1964 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1960

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Hawaii 58  184705
New Mexico 1148  311107
Nevada 1247  107267
Illinois 4430  4757409
Missouri 4991  1934422
All Other States     
TOTAL   11874   7294910
   
Margin: < 1%

:ELECTORAL TIE - 1960

Note: Actual elector vote was 303-219-15 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
12
Bypercent of Voters needed:
3
Byvotes per electorate needed:
10

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1960 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1956

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Tennessee 2891  939404
Nevada 7705  96689
Delaware 9319  177988
Wyoming 12510  124127
Montana 19348  271171
New Mexico 20346  253926
South Dakota 24641  293857
North Dakota 30013  253991
Idaho 30556  272989
Rhode Island 32015  387609
Arizona 32056  290173
West Virginia 33882  830831
Oregon 38595  735597
Louisiana 42536  617544
New Hampshire 43078  266994
Oklahoma 44095  859350
Kentucky 47870  1053805
Washington 48715  1150889
Minnesota 50889  1340005
Virginia 59350  697978
Florida 81740  1124220
Texas 110331  1955545
Pennsylvania 301742  4576503
All Other States     
TOTAL   1124223   18571185
   

Note: Actual elector vote was 457-73-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
40
Bypercent of Voters needed:
38
Byvotes per electorate needed:
40

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1956 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1952

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Tennessee 1219  892553
Delaware 3373  174025
Rhode Island 3822  414498
Nevada 9408  82190
New Mexico 13255  238608
Missouri 14800  1892062
Wyoming 16557  129251
Arizona 21758  260570
Montana 25591  265037
Utah 29414  329554
New Hampshire 29813  272950
Virginia 40181  619689
Oklahoma 43554  948984
Florida 49544  989337
Maryland 52044  902074
Washington 53132  1102708
Texas 66826  2075946
Massachusetts 104401  2383398
Pennsylvania 134761  4580969
All Other States     
TOTAL   713453   18554403
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
37
Bypercent of Voters needed:
32
Byvotes per electorate needed:
34

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1952 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1948

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Ohio 3554  2936071
California 8933  4021538
Illinois 16807  3984046
All Other States     
TOTAL   29294   10941655
   

Note: Actual elector vote was 303-189-39 (see here). Although Thurmond received 39 electoral votes, and won 4 states, the smallest change of popular votes needed to affect the election (listed above) did not need any votes to be changed from his count, so he is not listed in the table. Compare to the1924 election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
16
Bypercent of Voters needed:
8
Byvotes per electorate needed:
17

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1948 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1944

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Nevada 2507  54234
Idaho 3632  208321
New Hampshire 4874  229625
New Mexico 5351  152225
Delaware 5710  125361
Montana 9697  207355
Michigan 11239  2205223
Maryland 11271  608439
Oregon 11636  480147
New Jersey 13270  1963761
Connecticut 22310  831990
Missouri 23141  1572474
Minnesota 31225  1125529
Pennsylvania 52713  3794793
Illinois 70083  4036061
All Other States     
TOTAL   278659   17595538
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
28
Bypercent of Voters needed:
17
Byvotes per electorate needed:
25

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1944 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1940

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Wyoming 3328  112240
Nevada 5359  53174
Delaware 6580  136374
New Hampshire 7583  235419
Idaho 10645  235168
New Mexico 12193  183258
Wisconsin 12808  1405522
Minnesota 23962  1251188
Connecticut 27902  781502
New Jersey 35765  1974214
Missouri 43734  1833729
Illinois 51348  4217935
Ohio 73184  3319912
New York 112221  6301596
All Other States     
TOTAL   426612   22041231
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
31
Bypercent of Voters needed:
24
Byvotes per electorate needed:
29

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1940 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1936

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
New Hampshire 1910  218114
Delaware 6234  127603
Nevada 10002  43848
Wyoming 11943  103382
South Dakota 17081  296452
Rhode Island 20104  311178
New Mexico 22156  169136
Arizona 26645  124163
Idaho 29714  199617
Kansas 33397  865514
Utah 42846  216677
North Dakota 45199  273716
Nebraska 49858  608023
Connecticut 51723  690723
South Carolina 56073  115437
Arkansas 57364  179423
Iowa 66890  1142733
Virginia 68323  334590
Mississippi 76438  162090
Maryland 79089  624896
Kentucky 86122  926203
Massachusetts 87052  1840357
West Virginia 88613  829945
Tennessee 90782  476538
Alabama 101420  275744
Georgia 109212  293175
Indiana 121703  1650897
Michigan 158531  1805098
Pennsylvania 331894  4138426
All Other States     
TOTAL   1948318   19043698
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
41
Bypercent of Voters needed:
44
Byvotes per electorate needed:
41

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1936 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1932

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Wyoming 7394  96962
Nevada 8042  41430
New Jersey 15495  1629507
Rhode Island 15670  266170
Utah 15978  206578
Idaho 19032  186625
New Mexico 20437  151606
Arizona 21581  118251
Colorado 30631  457696
Massachusetts 31595  1580114
Ohio 37189  2609728
West Virginia 37197  743774
Kansas 37354  791978
Oregon 38927  368808
South Carolina 50185  104407
Virginia 57172  297942
Michigan 65904  1664765
Tennessee 66361  390256
New York 298499  4688614
All Other States     
TOTAL   874643   16395211
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
39
Bypercent of Voters needed:
34
Byvotes per electorate needed:
35

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1932 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1928

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Nevada 2119  32417
Utah 6817  176603
Arizona 6999  91254
New Mexico 10718  118014
Virginia 12232  305358
North Dakota 12397  239867
Texas 13003  708999
Tennessee 14023  363473
New Hampshire 17345  196757
Montana 17362  194108
Florida 21203  253672
Connecticut 22288  553031
North Carolina 31349  635150
Maryland 38927  528348
Wisconsin 46974  1016831
New York 51741  4405626
Missouri 85760  1500721
All Other States     
TOTAL   411257   11320229
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
30
Bypercent of Voters needed:
31
Byvotes per electorate needed:
28

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1928 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1924

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
  Total Votes in State
    
Arizona   73961
Nevada   26921
New Mexico   112830
Maryland   358630
Delaware   90885
Kentucky   815332
Wyoming   79900
Utah   156990
West Virginia   583662
New Hampshire   164769
Montana   174423
Rhode Island   210115
Idaho   148295
Vermont   102917
Oregon   279488
Missouri   1307958
Nebraska   464173
South Dakota   203868
Maine   192192
North Dakota   199081
Indiana   1272390
All Other States      
TOTAL    571783     7018780
  

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
34
Bypercent of Voters needed:
41
Byvotes per electorate needed:
37

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1924 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1920

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Nevada 2815  27194
Arizona 3736  66562
New Mexico 5484  105406
Delaware 6474  94875
Tennessee 6636  428626
Wyoming 8832  54700
Utah 12459  145828
Oklahoma 13390  486610
New Hampshire 16268  159092
Idaho 21199  135624
Vermont 23647  89961
Montana 26030  179006
Rhode Island 26201  167981
Maryland 27746  428443
West Virginia 30610  509942
Oregon 31787  238522
Colorado 34157  292053
South Dakota 37378  182237
Maine 38698  197840
Connecticut 54259  365518
Missouri 76182  1332800
Indiana 92504  1262964
All Other States     
TOTAL   596492   6951784
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
36
Bypercent of Voters needed:
43
Byvotes per electorate needed:
36

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1920 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1916

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
California 1887  999603
All Other States     
TOTAL   1887   999603
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
5
Bypercent of Voters needed:
5
Byvotes per electorate needed:
7

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1916 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1912

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
  Total Votes in State
    
Vermont   62841
Nevada   20115
Maine   129640
Arizona   23722
North Dakota   86580
Montana   79826
Wyoming   42296
Oregon   137040
Idaho   105754
Delaware   48694
New Mexico   49376
Rhode Island   77894
Illinois   1146173
Utah   112386
Kansas   365560
Iowa   492356
Massachusetts   488057
New Jersey   432739
West Virginia   268828
Nebraska   249483
Alabama   117959
Georgia   121470
All Other States      
TOTAL     220986    4658789
  

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
27
Bypercent of Voters needed:
33
Byvotes per electorate needed:
24

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1912 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1908

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Maryland 303  238531
Missouri 315  715927
Delaware 1480  48007
Montana 1504  68822
Wyoming 2965  37609
Indiana 5366  721126
West Virginia 13226  258105
Ohio 34796  1121552
All Other States     
TOTAL   59955   3209679
   

Note: Actual elector vote was 321-162. Although Taft (R) won Maryland he only received 2 of their electoral votes; the other 6 went to Bryan (D). For Calculation purposes I assumed all 8 went to Taft.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
21
Bypercent of Voters needed:
21
Byvotes per electorate needed:
20

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1908 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1904

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Nevada 1442  12115
Delaware 2180  43856
Wyoming 5780  30708
Montana 6580  64444
Rhode Island 8384  68656
New Hampshire 10045  90161
Missouri 12569  643861
West Virginia 15883  239986
Massachusetts 46039  445109
New York 87777  1617770
All Other States     
TOTAL   196679   3256666
   

Note: Maryland was not included in the calculations, as even though Roosevelt won the state, he only received 1 of the electoral votes, the other 7 went to Parker. This makes the calculations more conservative, as if all eight went to Roosevelt.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
26
Bypercent of Voters needed:
37
Byvotes per electorate needed:
27

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1904 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1900

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Utah 1067  93189
Delaware 1842  41989
Nebraska 3912  241430
Maryland 6974  264434
Kansas 11678  353766
Indiana 13240  664094
Ohio 34519  1040073
All Other States     
TOTAL   73232   2698975
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
23
Bypercent of Voters needed:
28
Byvotes per electorate needed:
23

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1900 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1896

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Kentucky 139  445928
California 962  298419
Oregon 1021  97414
Delaware 1939  38456
West Virginia 5450  201757
Indiana 9091  637119
All Other States     
TOTAL   18602   1719093
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
13
Bypercent of Voters needed:
14
Byvotes per electorate needed:
16

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1896 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections



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1892

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
  Total Votes in State
    
California   269609
North Dakota   36118
Delaware   37235
Idaho   19407
Kansas   324905
Wisconsin   371581
Indiana   553613
Illinois   873647
All Other States      
TOTAL   24488      2486115
  

Note: The 0 popular votes for Cleveland are correct. Also, in the actual election North Dakota in reality split their vote 1-1-1, California 1-8-0, and Oregon 3-0-1.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
14
Bypercent of Voters needed:
12
Byvotes per electorate needed:
13

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1892 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1888

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
New York 7187  1319748
All Other States     
TOTAL   7187   1319748
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
8
Bypercent of Voters needed:
9
Byvotes per electorate needed:
8

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1888 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1884

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
New York 575  1167169
All Other States     
TOTAL   575   1167169
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
3
Bypercent of Voters needed:
2
Byvotes per electorate needed:
2

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1884 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections



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1880

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Oregon 333  40823
Connecticut 1331  132798
Colorado 1402  53546
New Hampshire 2030  86361
Indiana 3322  470672
All Other States     
TOTAL   8418   784200
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
10
Bypercent of Voters needed:
13
Byvotes per electorate needed:
11

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1880 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections



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1876

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
South Carolina 445  182683
All Other States     
TOTAL   445   182683
   

Note: In theory the 1876 election was decided by just one vote in a special commission created to resolve the election, seeElectoral Commission. "With no independents left on the Supreme Court, the final seat on the Electoral Commission was given instead to Justice Joseph Philo Bradley, a Republican. As a result, the GOP held a one-seat majority on the body. Bradley would, in every case, vote with his fellow Republicans to give the disputed electoral votes to Hayes."

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
2
Bypercent of Voters needed:
7
Byvotes per electorate needed:
4

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1876 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1872

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Delaware 463  21822
Virginia 909  185195
Nevada 1089  14649
Florida 1169  33190
West Virginia 1395  62467
Oregon 2039  20147
Connecticut 2310  96009
New Hampshire 2872  68906
Rhode Island 4169  18994
Alabama 5415  169716
New Jersey 7601  168112
Indiana 11258  351196
New York 26729  828020
All Other States     
TOTAL   67418   2038423
   

Note: Actual electoral vote was 286-42-18-2-1, as Greeley died November 29, 1872. In the electoral college, the electors who had pledged to Greeley split their presidential electoral votes among four candidates, including 18 for Brown, Green's running mate.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
22
Bypercent of Voters needed:
30
Byvotes per electorate needed:
19

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1872 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1868

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
California 261  108656
Nevada 632  11698
Connecticut 1473  98632
Arkansas 1518  41190
Alabama 1874  149594
Nebraska 2127  15291
Indiana 4787  343532
Pennsylvania 14450  655662
All Other States     
TOTAL   27122   1424255
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
15
Bypercent of Voters needed:
22
Byvotes per electorate needed:
18

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1868 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1864

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Oregon 716  18345
Connecticut 1203  86981
New Hampshire 1782  69630
Rhode Island 2747  22432
New York 3375  730721
Maryland 3708  72892
Minnesota 3845  42422
Michigan 5319  147662
Pennsylvania 10038  572707
All Other States     
TOTAL   32733   1763792
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
18
Bypercent of Voters needed:
20
Byvotes per electorate needed:
15

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1864 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1860

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The 1860 election is unusual as the candidate who received the most popular votes behind Lincoln only placed fourth in the electoral college.

1860PartyPopularRankElectoralRank


Because of this situation, the candidate with the fewest votes needed to be changed to win the election was not Douglas, but Breckinridge. Since there are four main candidates, and because of space constraints, only the votes needed will be shown:

BRECKINRIDGE
 
 Change of VotesFrom which Candidate?
Virgina79Bell
Oregon136Lincoln
Tennessee2316Bell
California29321,822 from Lincoln; 1,099 from Douglas
Kentucky6458Bell
Rhode Island66515,594 from Lincoln; 1,057 from Douglas
Minnesota10,83210,491 from Lincoln, 341 from Douglas
Pennyslvania44,580Lincoln
TOTAL73,984

Had Breckinridge won those states, totalling 81 electoral votes, he would have won the election.

For comparison: Douglas would have needed 15 states, totalling 140 electoral votes, and would have required a minimum of 141,524 voters to change their vote in order for him to have won the election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
24
Bypercent of Voters needed:
39
Byvotes per electorate needed:
21

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1860 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1856

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
  Total Votes in State
    
Florida   11191
Delaware   14598
Illinois   239334
New Jersey   99396
Indiana   235431
All Other States      
TOTAL   34363      599950
  

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
19
Bypercent of Voters needed:
35
Byvotes per electorate needed:
22

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1856 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1852

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Delaware 13  12673
North Carolina 373  78891
Rhode Island 555  17005
Louisiana 697  35902
Iowa 954  35364
Connecticut 1446  66781
Maryland 2473  75120
New Jersey 2875  83220
Missouri 4417  68801
Ohio 8206  353188
Pennsylvania 9730  387839
All Other States     
TOTAL   31739   1214784
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
17
Bypercent of Voters needed:
27
Byvotes per electorate needed:
12

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1852 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1848

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Delaware 266  12432
Georgia 1374  92317
Louisiana 1555  33866
All Other States     
TOTAL   3195   138615
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
7
Bypercent of Voters needed:
26
Byvotes per electorate needed:
9

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1848 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1844

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
New York 2554  485882
All Other States     
TOTAL   2554   485882
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
6
Bypercent of Voters needed:
10
Byvotes per electorate needed:
5

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1844 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1840

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
  Change of votes  Total Votes in State
   
Pennsylvania 168  288026
Maine 212  92802
New Jersey 1159  64454
New York 6635  441543
All Other States     
TOTAL   8174   886825
   

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
9
Bypercent of Voters needed:
11
Byvotes per electorate needed:
6

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1840 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1836

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The 1836 election is unusual as
"It was the only race in which a major political party intentionally ran several presidential candidates. The Whigs ran three different candidates in different regions of the country, hoping that each would be popular enough to defeat Democratic standard-bearer Martin Van Buren in their respective areas. The House of Representatives could then decide between the competing Whig candidates. This strategy failed: Van Buren won a majority of the electoral vote and became President."[Source]
Because of this situation, the method of calculation used wasnot to make another candidate win, but to find the minimum number of votes neededfor Van Buren to lose. He would thennot have a majority in the electoral vote and the election would be thrown into the House, as the Whig Party had planned.

VAN BUREN
 
 Change of VotesFrom Van Buren to which Candidate?
Rhode Island128Harrison
Louisiana130White
Connecticut248Harrison
Mississippi258White
Arkansas524White
TOTAL1,288

Had Van Burenlost those states, totalling 24 electoral votes, the election would have gone to the House of Representatives.

The total votes, 1288, is relatively low as it is easier to make the winning candidatenot win an election (not caring who else would win), then as to try and make anotherspecific candidate win (as were the other cases solved above)

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
Bynumber of Voters needed:
4
Bypercent of Voters needed:
19
Byvotes per electorate needed:
3

Source for Data:
Leip, David.1836 Presidential Election Results.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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Before 1836

What is thesmallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The elections before 1836 were not analyzed, as the majority of the states did not have a 'winner take all' method for electoral votes, but had the state divided into electoral districts, with one elector chosen per district by the voters of that district. (For calculation purposes, those states that did have split electoral votes in the elections since were handled on a case by case basis). This makes calculating the minimum number of votes extremely difficult as you now need to know the popular votes for each electoral district.

See below for an explanation of the electoral districts.

Electoral districts [Source]

Another method for choosing electors is to divide a state into electoral districts, and the voters of each district choose a single elector, much as states are presently divided into congressional districts for choosing representatives. The electoral districts cannot correspond with congressional districts, though, because there are two more electoral districts than congressional districts. As with congressional districts, moreover, this method is vulnerable to gerrymandering.

States which have used Electoral Vote Districting and the years used:

Illinois: 1820, 1824.
Kentucky: 1792, 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824.
Maryland: 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824, 1828, 1832.
Michigan: 1892.
Missouri: 1824.
North Carolina: 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808.
Tennessee: 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824, 1828.
Virginia: 1789, 1792, 1796.




Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by Votes
YEARTotal Votes changed
2000269
1876445
1884575
18361288
19161887
18442554
18483195
18884801
18408174
18808418
19769246
196011874
189618602
189224488
186827122
194829294
185231739
186432733
185634363
200457787
190859955
187267418
190073232
186073984
1968135284
1904196679
1912220986
1944278659
1992284837
1928411257
1940426612
2008444121
1988537766
1924571783
1996575515
1920596492
1952713453
1980731189
1932874643
19561124223
19361948318
19642058258
19842675811
19723174786



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Sorted by fraction of voters
YEARTotal votes changedTotal votes from affected statesVotes needed to change per 100,000 voters
200026959631105
1884575116716949
1960118747294910163
196813528477841995174
19161887999603189
197692464403174210
1876445182683244
19482929410941655268
18884801921306521
18442554485882526
18408174886825922
1892244882486115985
188084187842001073
18961860217190931082
20045778743935421315
1992284837195560041457
1944278659175955381584
2008444121263578291685
18361288749851718
18643273317637921856
19085995532096791868
18682712214242551904
1988537766281512811910
1940426612220412311936
1980731189354711922061
184831951386152305
18523173912147842613
19007323226989752713
1996575515208148742765
18726741820384233307
1928411257113202293633
1952713453185544033845
191222098646587894743
1932874643163952115335
1856343635999505728
19842675811444482386020
190419667932566666039
19561124223185711856054
18607398411249316577
19642058258257709387987
192457178370187808146
19723174786382627698297
192059649269517848580
193619483181904369810231



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by votes per electorate
YEARTotal votes changedElectoral votes affectedVotes per electoral
20002692511
18845753616
183612882454
1876445764
184425543671
184081749091
1916188713145
1888480133145
1848319519168
19601187450237
1880841832263
185231739107297
18922448879310
1976924629319
18643273396341
18961860250372
19482929478376
18682712269393
187267418113597
19085995589674
18607398481913
18563436337929
190073232701046
19122209861781241
19442786591681659
1968135284791712
19041966791001967
19284112571792298
19404266121842319
200457787212752
19922848371032765
19807311892223294
19885377661583404
19527134531774031
19328746432074225
19205964921404261
19245717831314365
2008444121974579
19965755151115185
195611242231925855
193619483182587552
196420582582189442
1984267581125710412
1972317478625312549



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by influential states
STATEElections state was influential since 1836Total Elections participated in since 1836Fraction
New Mexico172568%
Delaware244455%
Nevada203754%
Montana143047%
Wyoming133043%
Oregon153839%
New Hampshire174439%
Hawaii51338%
Idaho113037%
Arizona92536%
Rhode Island154434%
Utah92931%
Alaska41331%
North Dakota93030%
West Virginia113730%
Connecticut134430%
Indiana134430%
Maryland134430%
Missouri134430%
New York134430%
Pennsylvania124427%
Tennessee124427%
California104025%
Illinois114425%
Ohio114425%
South Dakota73023%
New Jersey104423%
Florida94122%
Iowa94122%
Colorado73321%
Vermont94420%
Virginia94420%
Kentucky84418%
Maine84418%
Wisconsin74117%
Nebraska63617%
Kansas63716%
Massachusetts74416%
Minnesota63816%
Oklahoma42615%
Louisiana64414%
Michigan64414%
Washington43013%
Alabama54411%
Arkansas54411%
Georgia54411%
North Carolina54411%
South Carolina54411%
Texas44110%
Mississippi3447%
Washington, DC0120%



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



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Sorted by number of states needed to switch
STATENumber of
states		Total number of states during electionFraction
20001502%
19161482%
18881383%
18841383%
18761373%
18441264%
19762504%
20043506%
19483486%
196055010%
184832910%
188053813%
189664513%
200875014%
184042615%
190074516%
196885016%
185653116%
190884617%
189284418%
183652421%
186883722%
1996115022%
1992115022%
1904104522%
186083324%
186493625%
1988145028%
1940144829%
1944154831%
1980175034%
1872133735%
1928174835%
1852113135%
1952194840%
1932194840%
1924214844%
1920224846%
1912224846%
1984235046%
1956234848%
1972265052%
1964265052%
1936294860%