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POLITICO

The 11th annual American Democracy Conference

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Exit polls: How Obama won

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By DAVID PAUL KUHN| 11/5/08 12:27 AM EST
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Barack Obama, who will be the nation’s first African-American president, won the largest share of white support of any Democrat in a two-man race since 1976 amid a backdrop of economic anxiety unseen in at least a quarter-century, according to exit polls by The Associated Press and the major television networks.

Obama became the first Democrat to also win a majority since Jimmy Carter with the near-unanimous backing of blacks and the overwhelming support of youth as well as significant inroads with white men and strong support among Hispanics and educated voters.

The Illinois senator won 43 percent of white voters, 4 percentage points below Carter’s performance in 1976 and equal to what Bill Clinton won in the three-man race of 1996. Republican John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote.

Fully 96 percent of black voters supported Obama and constituted 13 percent of the electorate, a 2-percentage-point rise in their national turnout. As in past years, black women turned out at a higher rate than black men.

A stunning 54 percent of young white voters supported Obama, compared with 44 percent who went for McCain, the senator from Arizona. In the past three decades, no Democratic presidential nominee has won more than 45 percent of young whites.

It also appears youth turnout rose 1 point since 2004, to constitute 18 percent of the electorate.

McCain won a majority of every other age of white voters, which appeared to limit Obama’s reach into many traditionally Republican states.

Obama performed slightly worse with white women, 39 percent of voters, than Al Gore did in 2000. McCain won the votes of white women, 53 to 46 percent, perhaps an indication of the historical candidacy of his running mate, Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska.

Obama compensated for the drop-off in white female support with the strong 41 percent support from white men. No Democrat since Carter had until Tuesday’s election earned more than 38 percent of the white male vote.

In 2000, white women split between the two parties while Republicans won white men by 24 percentage points. That white male gap was dramatically narrowed Tuesday to 16 points, a trend that began with the financial crisis, and one that allowed Obama to split the male vote overall.

McCain won only 57 percent of the votes of white men, who were again 36 percent of the electorate.

White college graduates, 35 percent of voters, broke for McCain 51 to 47 percent, marking roughly a 3-point gain for Obama compared to Gore’s 44 percent showing.

Obama performed at a similar level as Gore with working-class whites, earning 40 percent of their support to McCain’s 59 percent, which is roughly similar to George W. Bush’s performance in 2000 and 2004.

Obama’s victory also stretched into other key blocs won by Bush four years ago. Suburban voters, who were half of the electorate, split between Obama and McCain. Rural voters, who went for Bush by 19 points in 2004, leaned to McCain by 8 points. And married voters, who went to Bush by 15 points, leaned to McCain by 6 this year.

 

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Readers' Comments (63)

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  1. default avatar for user Yougotthat right
    Yougotthat right
    Party: Independent
    Reply #1
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 12:35 AM EST
    The media as liberal and biased as they were never gave John McCain a chance openly attacking him in their effort to make Obama President. This is a poor day in America when the free press became not independent but openly one sided and they should be ashamed of themselves.
  2. default avatar for user Yougotthat right
    Yougotthat right
    Party: Independent
    Reply #2
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 12:43 AM EST

    The first poster failed to realize they weren't voting for Barack Obama they were voting against the policies of George Bush. George Bush lost the election for McCain where by beating McCain three times.

    They were voting for what they thought were the lessor of two evils but instead they will find Barack not up to the task for being President. Four years is a long time to suffer. I agree, I could hardly stomach George Bush one more day and at the end Barack stay. I'm sure I will be just as disappointed.

  3. default avatar for user qwert55
    qwert55
    Party: NA
    Reply #3
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:01 AM EST
    White people who voted for Obama = IDIOTS
  4. avatar for user Bagger
    Bagger
    Party: Independent
    Reply #4
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:20 AM EST
    We live in the greatest country in the world. We proved it tonight.
  5. default avatar for user Inspector Watchdog
    Inspector Watchdog
    Party: Independent
    Reply #5
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:23 AM EST
    The campaign rhetoric of both McCain/Palin and Obama/Biden was clearly spelled out this evening. When John McCain stood at the podium and congratulated President Elect Obama, people in the audience at the Arizona Biltmore Hotel is Phoenix, Booed! In contrast, when President Elect Obama praised the campaign and the long, historical service that John McCain has given to America, the people in Grant Park in Chicago, Cheered John McCain. The true test of a candidate is simply, that candidates ability to plan, organize, motivate, and control the campaign and those seeking to support the candidate. History will provide factual accounting that Barack Obama won the majority of White Male Voters. For those McCain Supporters who listened to the ranting of Rush, Bill, and Shawn, you are sorely misguided when claiming that the media played a role in the defeat of John McCain. I have been a loyal Republican for 42 years, and I served in Vietnam as a volunteer, driven to serve by the words of John F. Kennedy. I wrote countless letters to President Bush, warning him that Iraq would be his downfall, and the ultimate downfall of the Republican Party. I never heard from President Bush. When I decided to support Barack Obama, I asked only one favor of the Senator, "Please bring our young men and women home from Iraq." I explained that Iraq was Vietnam, with a change of geography. I support the need to carry the fight to Afghanistan, but I never supported the invasion of Iraq. What we witnessed this evening was the transformation of America into World Leadership. You may not like Barack Obama, but you need to analyze his success against the Clinton Political Machine, the Bush/Cheney/Rove Political Machine, and the McCain/Palin/RNC/Rove Political Machine. This man defeated the most elite politicians and political organizers of the last 25-40 years. This man, our President Elect, can guide and lead this country, much better than I felt John McCain could, and a significant majority of American Voters agreed with this assessment. November 4, 2008 - We the People spoke - one vote at a time! May God Bless America and bring us together, working for the success of every citizen!
  6. default avatar for user Paramount
    Paramount
    Party: NA
    Reply #6
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:24 AM EST
    qwert55 = "White Trash" Do not try and bring informed and intellectual caucasions down to your level. If you do not want a half "black" and half "white" president then stay up in the mountains of Alabama where you live, NOBODY WILL MISS YOU.
  7. default avatar for user OneBlkMan
    OneBlkMan
    Party: Independent
    Reply #7
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:31 AM EST

    I believe America has turned a corner and I believe our children and grandchildren will thank us for this day. We have made America a place which serves more of it's citizens than ever before.

    White, Black, Red, and Yellow, people have come together and spoke with ONE CHOICE, We have spoken with ONE VOICE. We REJECT the tired worn out Racist and Ignorant thinking of yesterday. There is no way we will fail as long as we strive to work together.

    It is truly a great day in America!!

  8. avatar for user Russgus
    Russgus
    Party: Independent
    Reply #8
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:35 AM EST

    For anyone who has read anything I've posted, it's no secret that I am NOT a McCain fan. But I need to give credit where credit is due. Sen. John McCain ran a campaign that was demeaning to Sen. Obama and the people who supported him. But tonight he graciously said that the contest is over, he lost (I don't see it that way, it was to close to say he lost. He just didn't win first place) and it's time for all of us to be and act like Americans. He even referred to President Elect Obama as "my president".

    Kudos to a man with a lot more class than I gave him credit for.

    Now. I suggest that those who supported him follow his lead, I also suggest that those who supported Pres. Elect Obama to do the same. These men both reminded us tonight that despite all the mudslinging and innuendo passing, they are what they were at the beginning of all this.

    Two distinguished United States Senators who passionately love this country and want to do what they think is best for it's people.

    Election's over people. Time to put away the "gloom and doom" and the "I told you so's" and get to work.

  9. default avatar for user Dublj
    Dublj
    Party: NA
    Reply #9
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:42 AM EST

    I believe America has tuned a corner and I believe our children and grandchildren will thank us for this day. We have made America a place which serves more of it's citizens than ever before.

    White, Black, Red, and Yellow, people have come together and spoke with ONE CHOICE, We have spoken with ONE VOICE. We REJECT the tired worn out Racist and Ignorant thinking of yesterday. There is no way we will fail as long as we strive to work together.

    Second, you say we "spoke" with "ONE VOICE"... you seem to be forgetting the fact that close to 48% of Americans voted AGAINST Obama in a year when we suffered an economic meltdown and are involved in two military actions. People didn't vote FOR Obama, they voted against Bush. When Obama actually has to work and make decisions, we are going to see his lack of experience and poor judgement. IT TOOK HORRIBLE EVENTS FOR OBAMA TO EKE OUT A 4% POINT VICTORY... ONLY 4 MILLION VOTES. LOOK AT THE FACT THAT CONSERVATIVE BALLOT INITIATIVES ARE WINNING AND YOU SEE THAT OBAMA DOES NOT HAVE THE IDEOLOGICAL SUPPORT.

  10. avatar for user Bag-the-Billster
    Bag-the-Billster
    Party: Independent
    Reply #10
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:46 AM EST

    To all who have been deceived out there: America has come to a crossroads.....just like what happened to Rome! This is the beginning of the downfall of the republic as it has been known up to now. With Obama and a very liberal congress, we are now entering the waters of socialism! Our country will no longer be the standing light of freedom that we once were. Now, we will enter the annuls of history as the former greatest country on Earth that has stood for freedom, liberty and justice for all! Goodbye to the shining city on the hill that Ronald Reagan had so vociferously fought to keep! To all who have voted for the USA to leave its moral foundation behind, you can only blame yourselves for what lies ahead! Beware of the future, for it will hold much misery for the United States of America!

  11. default avatar for user Dublj
    Dublj
    Party: NA
    Reply #11
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:48 AM EST
    Russgus: Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:35 AM EST

    Sen. John McCain ran a campaign that was demeaning to Sen. Obama and the people who supported him.

    And Obama and his supporters didn't run any smear campaigns against McCain & Palin? For 8 years, Dems have been stewing with the "victim" mentality. Now, conservatives are going to remember the media bias, and how Dems operated in this election (paying people to sit online and suppress support for McCain through lies and smears). Most polls were way off as predicted... Obama didn't get the 11 or 12 % point victory that polls lately were giving him. You guys worked for the last four years to destroy Bush, and lose the Iraq war, in order to win the election... our turn now.

  12. default avatar for user john5750
    john5750
    Party: NA
    Reply #12
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:50 AM EST

    HOW HE WON....WITH FRAUD, FORCE, AND CORRUPTION.

  13. default avatar for user john5750
    john5750
    Party: NA
    Reply #13
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:53 AM EST


  14. default avatar for user Dublj
    Dublj
    Party: NA
    Reply #14
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:56 AM EST

    Prediction: Unemployment is going to rise when Obama raises taxes on businesses (I don't say corporations, but on all businesses). You will see moving trucks out in front of major corporations... why stay in a country that has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world. Due to the unemployment and higher taxes, the tax receipts will drop off. The budget is going to go farther into the red. People will get their welfare checks though because China, Venezuela, Russia, and Iran will buy our debt. Eventually, those factories that left will return and Americans will be working for the same price that Chinese and Indians work for now... and instead of manufacturing goods for American businesses, you will be manufacturing goods for Chinese, Indian, and Russian companies. WE ARE BEING SOLD INTO SERVITUDE AMERICA. Don't say that there weren't people warning you.

    Also look for the law limiting Presidents to two terms repealed. Obama will not give up power now that he has it... that isn't the Marxist way.

  15. avatar for user Bagger
    Bagger
    Party: Independent
    Reply #15
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:00 AM EST
    My Republican and Conservative friends...it's time to do some soul searching. You cannot be against something, you must stand for something. GWB ruined it for you. Come with ideas and not smears. You may prevail again in 12 years.
  16. default avatar for user Rational_Dissent
    Reply #16
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:04 AM EST
    While obviously supporters dropped into plenty of smear tactics, the Obama CAMPAIGN ran much cleaner, more focused, and more truthful than the McCain campaign. Obama never demonized cultural or geographic parts of this country as less American. Take for example how McCain characterized the abortion debate as being between "Pro-Life" and the offensive & inaccurate "Pro-Abortion." Obama in contrast characterized the positions as "Pro-Choice" and "Anti-Abortion" (which is nicely neutral as opposed to the offensive: Anti-Choice), and while McCain promoted victory over Roe v. Wade, Obama rather than defiance rather refocused the debate on actually reducing abortions through education, contraception, & creating social systems to support pregnant women & newborns, a position he was joined in by many Anti-Abortion supporters. What's more a lot of this supposed media bias (I'm not defending the New York Times or MSNBC here, but rather the actual moderate media) were process stories, that covered the McCain campaign negatively not to disparage McCain or his positions, but because those were the process stories they had access to & the media loves a horse race. If you're claiming that the percentage of negative stories demonstrates media bias than I'm assuming you'll concede the media was biased against both Gore & Kerry, as they received far more negative coverage than Bush.
  17. default avatar for user Wixar
    Wixar
    Party: Democrat
    Reply #17
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:07 AM EST

    Would someone please tell me how a 3% tax increase on the super rich, the pre-Bush level that Mccain supported some years ago, is Marxism? There are some republicans that I respect, but I find that most are just plain reactionary rather than thoughtful (and yes, this can be said of some liberals too, but to a much lesser degree).

  18. default avatar for user Dublj
    Dublj
    Party: NA
    Reply #18
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:08 AM EST
    Bagger: Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:00 AM EST

    My Republican and Conservative friends...it's time to do some soul searching. You cannot be against something, you must stand for something. GWB ruined it for you. Come with ideas and not smears. You may prevail again in 12 years.

    You don't understand... Obama won the election by 4% points in the WORST POSSIBLE environment for a Republican candidate... Conservatives are still strong... just LOOK AT EVERY CONSERVATIVE INITIATIVE ON BALLOTS PASSING... EVEN CALIFORNIA HAS APPROVED THE BAN ON GAY MARRIAGES. We stand for a lot more than rhetoric and government handouts. Enough were fooled to get Obama elected this time... but we learned from the slimy tactics employed by the Dems this year... it won't happen again. He does not have the ideological support of America.... NOR A FILLIBUSTER-PROOF SENATE!!!

    And don't think we will be fooled by your fake "olive branch". You people have worked to destroy Bush for 8 years... Our turn now.

  19. default avatar for user OneBlkMan
    OneBlkMan
    Party: Independent
    Reply #19
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:09 AM EST
    Dublj: Nov. 5, 2008 - 1:42 AM EST

    You are assuming a man with no significant governing accomplishment will succeed. Odds are against him.

    Second, you say we "spoke" with "ONE VOICE"... you seem to be forgetting the fact that close to 48% of Americans voted AGAINST Obama in a year when we suffered an economic meltdown and are involved in two military actions. People didn't vote FOR Obama, they voted against Bush. When Obama actually has to work and make decisions, we are going to see his lack of experience and poor judgement. IT TOOK HORRIBLE EVENTS FOR OBAMA TO EKE OUT A 4% POINT VICTORY... ONLY 4 MILLION VOTES. LOOK AT THE FACT THAT CONSERVATIVE BALLOT INITIATIVES ARE WINNING AND YOU SEE THAT OBAMA DOES NOT HAVE THE IDEOLOGICAL SUPPORT.

    The political landscape is litered with the remains of those whom didn't think Obama couldn't succeed at something. McCain being just the latest to bear witness. This is a democracy and the MAJORITY CHOOSE OBAMA... Live with it!! I didn't vote against your idiot President Bush even though I could have. I VOTED, LOCK STOCK AND BARREL FOR OBAMA. I know that may be hard for some ignorant and racist people but even those fools are entitled to their OPINIONS. The Horroble events were brought on by YOUR ignorant Republican party... remember?

    Obama has a majority in both the House AND the Senate. I think that's more than enough influence to work with.

    The political face of America will NEVER look the same. We're building a better America, an America which we want to serve ALL of it's citizens not just the Rich ones, and not just the racist white ones. ALL of it's Citizens

    Racism and Ignorance LOST..... Suck it up and live with it.

  20. default avatar for user Dublj
    Dublj
    Party: NA
    Reply #20
    Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:11 AM EST
    Wixar: Nov. 5, 2008 - 2:07 AM EST

    Would someone please tell me how a 3% tax increase on the super rich, the pre-Bush level that Mccain supported some years ago, is Marxism? There are some republicans that I respect, but I find that most are just plain reactionary rather than thoughtful (and yes, this can be said of some liberals too, but to a much lesser degree).

    You are talking about JUST the income tax. You add in an increase on the capitol gains tax, death tax, social security tax, payroll tax... it adds up to a lot more than 3% on a lot more people than just the "super rich", who already pay the vast majority of income taxes.

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