House Outlook for 2008

Will the GOP Swing the Pendulum Back?

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Current partisan breakdown: 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans

Read thelatest article on the 2008 House contests.

The 2006 midterm elections brought about a reversal of fortunes as Republicans saw their 29-seat majority evaporate overnight, as Democrats flipped 29 seats (and no, theCrystal Ball can't resist noting that we predicted exactly that). After a string of special election victories for Democrats in 2007 and 2008, it is clear that the Blue wave of 2006 is still lingering off-shore. Still, a presidential election year is a much different beast than a midterm one, and Democratic freshmen holding newly-captured Red seats must be wary of the phenomenon known as presidential coattails. While Republicans seek to pick off these freshmen that they believe were merely beneficiaries of fortunate circumstances, Democrats take aim at some seats that were near-misses in 2006 and others where disenchanted Republicans have since retired and leave behind an even playing field.

Nationally, both parties now face the task of picking surefire winners and ignoring the likely losers. This task will be doubly difficult for Republicans as the NRCC, the national committee tasked with overseeing GOP House campaigns, is vastly underfunded compared to their Democratic rivals at the DCCC. Triage is the order of the day, as some incumbents will likely have to be jettisoned so that resources can instead be spent on more promising prospects.

Of course, it is not the national fronts, but local weather, that determines the eventual makeup of each Congress. Therefore, theCrystal Ball rates the competitiveness and likely outcome of all 435 House races (any race not seen below is rated "safe" in favor of the incumbent party). Please do remember to check back often, for, as the winds change, we will update our forecast.

Current 2008 House Crystal Ball HotRace^TM Readings

The Brutal Bottom Line - November 3, 2008: