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Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction via driver characteristic and intention estimation model under uncertainty
Article publication date: 16 October 2020
Issue publication date: 16 November 2021
Abstract
Purpose
For autonomous vehicles, trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles is beneficial to improving the situational awareness of dynamic and stochastic traffic environments, which is a crucial and indispensable element to realize highly automated driving.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the overall framework consists of two parts: first, a novel driver characteristic and intention estimation (DCIE) model is built to indicate the higher-level information of the vehicle using its low-level motion variables; then, according to the estimation results of the DCIE model, a classified Gaussian process model is established for probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction under different motion patterns.
Findings
The whole method is later applied and analyzed in the highway lane-change scenarios with the parameters of models learned from the public naturalistic driving data set. Compared with other traditional methods, the performance of this proposed approach is proved superior, demonstrated by the higher accuracy in the long prediction horizon and a more reasonable description of uncertainty.
Originality/value
This hierarchical approach is proposed to make trajectory prediction accurately both in the short term and long term, which can also deal with the uncertainties caused by the perception system or indeterminate vehicle behaviors.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFB0100905).
Declaration of competing interest: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relations that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Citation
Liu, J.,Xiong, H.,Wang, T.,Huang, H.,Zhong, Z. andLuo, Y. (2021), "Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction via driver characteristic and intention estimation model under uncertainty",Industrial Robot, Vol. 48 No. 6, pp. 778-791.https://doi.org/10.1108/IR-06-2020-0114
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright© 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited