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Last June, we dida deep dive into the 100 largest suburban counties to explore demographic and political change between 2000 and 2020. On the demographic front, we found that all of the suburban counties included in our analysis had become more diverse.

This was consistent, but not homogeneous: Asian growth featured prominently in more wealthy, highly educated suburban counties; Hispanic growth was most noticeable in large metropolitan areas; and Black growth occurred most frequently in the vicinity of cities with substantial Black populations — like Atlanta. Predictably given the demographic change, all six of our regions got more Democratic between 2000 and 2020.

We decided to go further for our follow-up piece. Breaking all of the country’s counties into four groups (Large Urban, Large Suburbs, Small Metros, and Rurals) we decided to examine the demographic change in each between 1980 and 2020, as well as their political shifts in 2024. To create our groups, we utilized the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)’s 2013urban-rural classification scheme. Some NCHS categories have been combined for convenience.

Large Urban

We begin with the large urban category. These counties contain the urban cores and central suburbs of the country’s largest metropolitan areas. Since 1980, they have gained nearly 32  million residents, a growth rate of +45% — in line with the nation’s +46% growth in the same time period . Collectively, they were home to 31% of the nation’s population in both 1980 and 2020.

These urban counties have lost white residents over the past 40 years, with the white population dropping from 47.1 million to 41.6 million, a decline of –12%. By contrast, nonwhite groups have grown explosively, with the non-white population growing by 33 million. 

This has had a marked impact on the demographics of these counties, which are by far the most diverse of any category. In 1980, they were supermajority white. In 2020, however, they are just 41% white, the only category that has become majority-minority. Notably, a majority of the country’s 19.8 million Asians live in these counties. 2020 was the first census year in which Asians made up over 10% of any category. 

This region has experienced the most drastic shift in political lean, going from R+1 in 1980 to D+31 in 2020. Reagan performed exceptionally well for a Republican candidate, carrying most of the urban counties in the southern and western United States, but perhaps a lot of the shift since 1980 can be explained by the transformed electorate. 

Relative to 2020, however, Republicans gained the most ground in this category. Trump trimmed the Democratic margin to D+24 as a result of significant improvements with minority voters.

Large Suburbs

Next, the large suburbs. The counties included in this category contain most of the nation’s prominent suburbs. This group has grown more substantially than its counterparts since 1980, netting 35 million residents. With a growth rate of 74%, the large suburbs easily outpace the national rate. 

In 1980, these counties were actually the whitest in the dataset, eclipsing even rural America at 87%. At the time, many places in this category were classic “white-flight” suburbs, whereas rural areas, particularly in the South, still retained significant nonwhite populations. 40 years later, these counties are a more diverse bunch, thanks to massive growth among nonwhites. 

Some of these counties are now among the most diverse in the nation. Georgia’s Gwinnett County, Texas’s Fort Bend County, Florida’s Broward County, Maryland’s Montgomery County, and New Jersey’s Middlesex County are just a few of the suburban counties that are home to ethnic “melting pots.” 

Much of the change here has been driven by Hispanic and Asian residents, with both groups growing seven-fold. During the same timeframe, the white population also increased, but by a modest 22%.

Over 40 years ago, these counties were only slightly larger than the combined weight of rural counties, with 47 million to the rurals’ 42 million. Explosive growth in the intervening decades has dramatically changed this dynamic, with the large suburbs now combining for nearly 83 million Americans. The rurals, by contrast, have only slightly increased to just over 47 million; still smaller than the large suburbs were in 1980.

The counties in this region collectively voted R+15 in 1980, the most Republican of any category, but proceeded to get more Democratic as they diversified. This region peaked at D+5 in 2020 when Joe Biden performed particularly well with college-educated suburban white voters. 2024 saw noticeable reversion, however, with the region breaking for Trump by just 0.1%.

Small Metros

The medium to small metros group contains most of the nation’s micropolitan areas. These counties have collectively seen the second most population growth of those included in our framework, growing to be 49% larger than they were in 1980. Population growth here has largely mirrored the national figure, but unlike the nation as a whole, most of the demographic change in these counties has been driven by Hispanic residents.

Many of these smaller metropolitan areas were once extremely white, and 40 years ago, many were also significantly less populated. Still, collectively they are home to almost as many peoples as the large urban counties, with both having a 2020 population of around 100 million. Somewhat surprisingly, this is not substantially different from 1980, where smaller metro areas combined for 67 million while urban cores combined for 70 million. 

This region is the only one of the four that has nearly come full circle in terms of partisanship. Reagan won the region by 13 points in 1980. In that time, many of the exurban counties within the region became more Democratic, limiting Trump’s margin of victory to just 5 points in 2020. In 2024, however, Republicans rebounded and Trump won the region by 10 points.

Rurals

Finally, we arrive at the nation’s rural counties. Predictably, the population has only increased by 14% here since 1980 — a significantly lower rate than the other regions. Remarkably, this population growth is driven almost entirely by Hispanics and Asians; the white population of rural counties has outright declined, and the Black population is only slightly higher, reflecting migratory patterns away from rural areas. Even in these small, sparsely populated countries often far from major metropolitan areas, one can see substantial diversification. Whites still make up the vast majority of the population, but have shrunk from 87% in 1980 to 75% in 2020. 

Republicans have seen the biggest rightward political shift in the rurals, which only voted R+13 in 1980. Consolidation of GOP support among southern whites has shored up the region, allowing Trump to win by 31 points in 2020 and 34 points in 2024. The increasingly pro-Republican bent of the region is a direct result of its being the most white and least college-educated of the bunch.

Overall, the numbers tell a story of differentiated change. The nation’s large suburban counties have seen disproportionately high population growth, getting far more diverse overall. On the other hand, the urban counties have seen a predictable decline in the white population and population growth in the rural counties has stalled altogether. While the large outer metro counties actually account for less of the total population than they did in 1980, the increasing diversity of the nation’s suburbs makes them all the more important as key electoral battlegrounds. 

On the political front, the change from 1980 to 2024 is hardly anomalous. Republicans have gained in rural areas, but lost in margin in the urban, suburban, and large metropolitan collectives, hardly a surprise given increasing geographic polarization and Reagan’s larger victory margin in 1980 than Trump’s in 2024. Republicans have gained ground in the rurals but lost ground in the urban, suburban, and large metropolitan collectives. 

Between 2020 and 2024, however, all regions predictably shifted to the right — a reminder that political change is never permanent. While Kamala Harris did the worst relative to Jimmy Carter in the rurals, they also swung the least to Donald Trump. 

Methodology

• Readers will note that our groups do not include Alaska. There have been too many changes to Alaska’s borough boundaries since 1980 to allow for a consistent analysis of demographic shifts over the last forty years. Second, we had to address a few modifications to county and city boundaries that have occurred since 1980, including some new counties that did not exist 40 years ago. These have been detailed at the bottom of the article.
• While our use of NCHS classifications may be the most consistent way to divide the country up into regions, it is not a completely perfect system. For example, counties like Maricopa (AZ) and Clark (NV) definitely fit into the “large urban” category, but that shouldn’t detract from the fact that they also contain sprawling suburbs akin to those found in counties in the “large suburbs” category. Any county-level analysis will face these limitations.
• Counties or county-equivalents created or eliminated since 1980:
  • Arizona: La Paz County was created out of Yuma County.
  • Colorado: Broomfield County was created out of Boulder, Adams, Jefferson, and Weld counties. Broomfield’s numbers have been combined with Boulder County.
  • New Mexico: Cibola County was created out of Valencia County.
  • Virginia: the former independent cities of Bedford, Clifton Forge, and Boyd’s Ferry (South Boston) have also been consolidated with their respective counties.

Harrison Lavelle

My name is Harrison Lavelle and I am a co-founder and partner at Split Ticket. I write about a variety of electoral topics and handle our Datawrapper visuals.

Contact me at @HWLavelleMaps or harrison@splitticket.org

Max McCall

I am an analyst specializing in elections and demography, as well as a student studying political science, sociology, and data science at Vanderbilt University. I use election data to make maps and graphics. In my spare time, you can usually find me somewhere on the Chesapeake Bay. You can find me at @maxtmcc on Twitter.