
The big rush: GOP sets Nov. 13 for leadership showdowns
House and Senate Republicansare gearing up to move straight from Nov. 5 to theirleadership elections, a quick turnaround as numerous races across the country could still be undecided.
Senate Republican leadershipformally announced Tuesday that their internal party election will be conducted on Nov. 13. And House Republican leadership has scheduled its candidate forum for Nov. 13 at 9 a.m., with their election at 2:30 p.m.
Oddly enough, House Republicans will conduct the leadership election at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill, not in the Capitol or the Longworth Building. Senate Republicans are very likely to hold their elections in the Old Senate Chamber, the traditional site.
Senate side.Sen.Mitch McConnell’s historic run as Senate GOP leader isending soon. Now the issue is who will replace him, and how many votes they’ll have in the next Congress.
Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.),John Cornyn (R-Texas) andRick Scott (R-Fla.) are all running for the post. Thune — currently the minority whip — isseen as the frontrunner, but the outlook for this race is unclear. Most GOP senators have withheld any public endorsement so far.
Details of the election process still have to be worked out. Senate Republican Conference ChairJohn Barrasso — who is unchallenged in his bid for whip — will oversee the proceedings.
We expect a wide-ranging discussion involving Thune, Cornyn and Scott. This could include a review of proposals from Sen.Mike Lee (R-Utah) todramatically rein in the power of the GOP leader. Sen.Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) hasled the charge against the Lee plan. We’ll see how far conservatives can push this issue.
The other key questionis what happens in contested Senate elections and who will be allowed to vote. Only senators who will be part of the 119th Congress can cast votes, but GOP leaders hope to have all the candidates in undecided races come to Capitol Hill that week.
Which leads us to the question of what will happen to Sen.J.D. Vance (Ohio), the Republican vice presidential candidate. If the White House racestill isn’t decided by then — a nightmare — will Vance vote in the Senate leadership elections? Vance would be part of the next Congress if he andDonald Trump lose. We’ll see what happens.
There’s oneother key leadership race — who will replace Barrasso as Senate GOP Conference chair. Sens.Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) andJoni Ernst (R-Iowa) are running. Cotton is favored, but he could also end up serving in a Trump administration.
House side.Let’s start with this question for House Republicans: Can they even hold their leadership elections beginning Nov. 13?
House GOP leaders— most importantly SpeakerMike Johnson — believe they can.
Yet if 2022 is any indication,the most competitive House races in California will take a long time to be called. For instance: Rep.John Duarte’s(R-Calif.) win over DemocratAdam Graywasn’tofficial until the first week of December.
A large percentage ofCalifornians vote by mail and theprocess to count those votes takes significant time in the state.
House election expertson both sides expect the universe of outcomes to range anywhere from a GOP majority of five votes to a Democratic majority of five votes. That intensely small range of outcomes means that the critical California House races — in the 13th, 22nd, 27th, 41st and 45th — might be the difference. There are also tight races in the Golden State’s 47th and 49th districts.
It’s still likely,however, that we will know a good deal about the House map on election Night. Consider this: there are two competitive seats — the 2nd and 7th Districts — in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m.
Polls closeat 7:30 p.m. in North Carolina’s 1st District, Ohio’s 9th District and Ohio’s 13th District. Polls close at 8 p.m. in Maine, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where there are plenty of toss-up races.
If Democratsdefend Reps.Jared Golden(D-Maine),Marcy Kaptur(D-Ohio) andMatt Cartwright(D-Pa.), then the path to a GOP majority significantly narrows.
The House GOPis also going to consider changes to the party’s rules.
One such proposed change,suggested by the leadership, would seek to clarify who controls the House if a speaker is booted out of the job. Here’s the change:
In the event of a vacancy in the Office of Speaker, the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore … may, pending the election of a Speaker Designate by the Republican Conference, exercise all authorities of the Office of Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to the end of such election.
This isn’t an earth-shakingmove, but it does reflect the reality that the GOP deposed a speaker this Congress and Republicans are looking to clarify their rules to reflect that.
The rules alsomandate that the chair announce the vote total for leadership elections — something that’s not currently in writing but rather is at the discretion of the chair.
Here aretheproposed changes and theexplanations. These documents were sent to GOP lawmakers this week.
Thank you Congress for prioritizing funding for cancer cures and a pathway to cancer innovation in Medicare.

The closing messages, one week out
K Street predicts Dems win the White House and the House majority
Most on K Street predict results will come within a week after Election Day
Thank you Congress for prioritizing funding for cancer cures and a pathway to cancer innovation in Medicare.



