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.2023 Sep 24;13(1):15949.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-43290-9.

Recent global increase in multiple rapid intensification of tropical cyclones

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Recent global increase in multiple rapid intensification of tropical cyclones

N D Manikanta et al. Sci Rep..

Abstract

The rapid intensification (RI ≥ 30 knots/24-h) of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes TC forecasting difficult, resulting in severe damage to property and life. Forecasting can get even worse if TCs have experienced RI more than once (referred to as "multiple-RI TCs") in their lifetime. On a global scale, the relation between long-term trends of multiple-RI TC frequency and maximum potential intensity (MPI) changes is investigated in this study. During 1981-2020, the frequency of multiple-RI TCs significantly increased at a rate of 1.2 TCs/decade, which was primarily due to the upper phases of TC becoming conducive to RI as MPI increased. Our analysis shows that the frequency of multiple-RI TCs has increased by 82.43% in 2000-2020 compared to that in 1981-2000, whereas the frequency of single RI TCs has increased by only 1.63%. The rise in MPI elevates the initial intensity at which a TC undergoes maximum intensification rate, making post-Tropical Storm stages of TCs conducive to RI. As a result, TCs can undergo RI multiple times even following a weakening before the intensity approaches MPI.

© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(a) Box plots of 24-h intensity changes (ΔV24) in different stages of the TC life cycle (intensification phase) that formed across the globe during 1981–2020. The Orange curve indicates the mean ΔV24 in each stage. (b) Shows the same, but for the two periods. Blue box plots show distribution during P1, and red box plots for P2, while the blue curve and red curve represent the mean values of intensity changes for the periods P1, and P2 respectively.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Box plots of 24-h intensity changes (ΔV24) in different stages of the TC life cycle (intensification phase) that formed across the globe during 1981–2020 for (a) RI-TCs ; (b) non-RI TCs. The orange curve indicates the mean ΔV24 in each stage. Box plots of 24-h intensity changes (ΔV24) in the two periods P1, P2 for (c) RI-TCs and (d) non-RI TCs. Blue box plots show distribution during P1, and red box plots for P2, while the blue curve and red curve represent the mean values of intensity changes for the periods P1, and P2, respectively.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Probability distribution of different intensity change groups (a) neutral IR (ΔV24 = 0 kt) ; (b) non-rapid IR (ΔV24 = 1—29 kt); (c) rapid IR (ΔV24 ≥ 30 kt); (d) weakening rate (ΔV24 ≤ 0 kt) within each stage of the TC lifecycle (significant changes are displayed with hashed bars ).
Figure 4
Figure 4
(a) Frequency distribution of RI events as a function of TC intensity categories for the period, P1 (dark blue); P2 (green) (b) Probability distribution of RI events among different stages of TC for the period, P1 (blue); P2 (green). Frequency distribution of RI for (c) single-RI TCs and (d) multiple-RI TCs.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Density plots of RI magnitude against the initial storm intensity (V) during the RI event normalized by the lifetime max intensity (LMI) of the storm (namely V/LMI) for (a) 1981–2000; (b) 2001–2020.
Figure 6
Figure 6
(a) Time series of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) (shown in green color) calculated for global tropical oceans (30N—30S) for the period 1981–2020 using ERA5 data along with time series of multiple-RI events (red) (b) Distribution plots of initial TC intensity of maximum intensification rate for RI TCs for the periods P1 (green) and P2 (red).
Figure 7
Figure 7
(a) Time series and trend of annual single-RI TCs frequency (red) and multiple-RI TCs frequency (green) and multiple-RI events frequency (blue) during the period 1981–2020. (b) Frequency changes of total RI-TCs and total RI events, single-RI TCs and events, multiple-RI TCs and events between the periods P1 and P2.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Basin wise frequency changes of total RI-TCs and total RI events, single-RI TCs and events, multiple-RI TCs and events between the periods P1 and P2.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Distribution of the RI onset and RI end positions in TC life cycle in terms of (a) TC intensity and (b) V/LMI for single-RI TCs (shown in blue color background) and multiple-RI TCs (shown in red color background) between the periods P1 (blue) and P2 (red). The rhombus symbol inside the box indicates the mean value of the distribution.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Box plots showing the variations in the distribution of (a) LMI (b) RI period and (c) RI magnitude of single-RI TCs and multiple-RI TCs between the periods P1 (blue) and P2 (red). The rhombus symbol inside the box indicates the mean value of the distribution.
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