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.2023 Feb 7;14(1):487.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x.

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

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Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

Caroline Taylor et al. Nat Commun..

Abstract

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

© 2023. The Author(s).

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Global distribution of GLOF exposure.
a Global distribution of glacial basins, colour-coded according to mountain range, with ‘High Arctic and Outlying Countries’ (HAOC) representing all basins outside of the four main ranges in this study (Alps, Andes, High Mountains Asia (HMA) and Pacific North West (PNW)). Pie charts show the proportion of exposed population as individual country contributions to the mountain range total, with pie charts sized according to percentage contribution to the 2020 global total.b Grey bars show exposed population as a percentage of the national total (left axis). Coloured bars show the total exposed population per country (right axis).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Global spatial distribution of exposure.
a Spatial distribution of exposure within GLOF runout tracks up to 50 km from a glacial lake, at 5 km intervals at the global and mountain range scale.b Total contribution of mountain range to the global total exposed population. Countries are coloured according to mountain range.HMA High Mountains Asia,PNW Pacific North West,HAOC High Arctic and Outlying Countries.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Global GLOF danger.
a Spatial distribution of GLOF danger at basin scale from high (red) to low (blue) risk.b Final normalised scores of GLOF lake conditions (‘hazard’), exposure, vulnerability, and danger for each country, ordered from highest danger score (left) to lowest (right).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4. Rate of change in glacial lake area and total population.
Rates of population change between 1990 and 2020 and glacial lake area change between 1990 and 2018 asa absolute population exposed to GLOFs andb percentage of national population exposed to GLOFs in each country. Countries are colour coded according to Mountain Range. While our study only considers contemporary GLOF danger, this highlights that variable changes in population and lake conditions may lead to very different danger scores in the near future.HMA High Mountains Asia,PNW Pacific North West,HAOC High Arctic and Outlying Countries.
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References

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