doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23754-0.
Dinosaur biodiversity declined well before the asteroid impact, influenced by ecological and environmental pressures
Affiliations
- PMID:34188028
- PMCID: PMC8242047
- DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23754-0
Item in Clipboard
Dinosaur biodiversity declined well before the asteroid impact, influenced by ecological and environmental pressures
Fabien L Condamine et al. Nat Commun..
Display options
Format
Display options
Format
Abstract
The question why non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago (Ma) remains unresolved because of the coarseness of the fossil record. A sudden extinction caused by an asteroid is the most accepted hypothesis but it is debated whether dinosaurs were in decline or not before the impact. We analyse the speciation-extinction dynamics for six key dinosaur families, and find a decline across dinosaurs, where diversification shifted to a declining-diversity pattern ~76 Ma. We investigate the influence of ecological and physical factors, and find that the decline of dinosaurs was likely driven by global climate cooling and herbivorous diversity drop. The latter is likely due to hadrosaurs outcompeting other herbivores. We also estimate that extinction risk is related to species age during the decline, suggesting a lack of evolutionary novelty or adaptation to changing environments. These results support an environmentally driven decline of non-avian dinosaurs well before the asteroid impact.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors declare no competing interests.
Figures
The Bayesian estimates of speciation (blue), extinction (red), net diversification (black, speciation minus extinction) rates, and diversity of all six non-avian dinosaur families (a–c), of the herbivorous families (d–f), and of the carnivorous families (g–i). Solid lines indicate mean posterior rates and shaded areas show 95% CI. Net diversification decreased ~83 Myrs ago (mid-Campanian), and became negative ~76 Myrs ago (late Campanian). The diversities (numbers of species) of all dinosaur families, herbivorous families, and carnivorous families were in decline starting in the mid-late Campanian (~76 Myrs ago) or at the Campanian–Maastrichtian transition for carnivores (~72 Myrs ago). Reconstructions of diversity trajectories are replicated to incorporate uncertainties around the age of the fossil occurrences. Apt Aptian, Alb Albian, Cen Cenomanian, Tur Turonian, Con Coniacian, Sant Santonian, Cam Campanian, Maa Maastrichtian, Dan Danian, Pg Paleogene, and K/Pg Cretaceous–Palaeogene mass extinction (66 Myrs ago). Dinosaur pictures courtesy of Fred Wierum (© Wikimedia Commons), Debivort (© Wikimedia Commons), and Jack Mayer Wood (© Wikimedia Commons):https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ . Asteroid icon made by Fabien Condamine.
The Bayesian inferences in PyRate allow estimating the mean preservation rates (i.e. number of occurrences per species per Myr) and the variations though time. Solid lines indicate mean posterior rates and shaded areas show 95% CI. Our estimate shows that the mean preservation increased through time and toward the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary culminating in the Maastrichtian with more than seven occurrences per species per Myr. Superimposed are the number of Late Cretaceous geological formations from the Paleobiology Database. Abbreviations as in Fig. 1. Picture of the ‘Black Beauty’ tyrannosaur made by Fabien Condamine at the Royal Tyrrell Museum of Palaeontology (Drumheller, Canada). Asteroid icon made by Fabien Condamine.
a,d,g,j,m,p Bayesian estimates of speciation (blue) and extinction (red) rates for each of the six dinosaur families.b,e,h,k,n,q The net diversification rate (speciation minus extinction) of the six non-avian dinosaur families becomes negative ~76 Ma (late Campanian) or ~72 Ma (early Maastrichtian).c,f,i,l,o,r The diversity (number of species) of all dinosaur families is in decline starting in the mid-late Campanian (~76 Ma). Hadrosaur diversity declines slowly compared to the other families. For each plot, solid lines indicate mean posterior rates, whereas the shaded areas show 95% CI. Reconstructions of diversity trajectories are replicated to incorporate uncertainties around the age of the fossil occurrences. Abbreviations as in Fig. 1. Dinosaur pictures courtesy of Fred Wierum (© Wikimedia Commons), Debivort (© Wikimedia Commons), and Jack Mayer Wood (© Wikimedia Commons):https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ . Asteroid icon made by Fabien Condamine.
a Dynamics of speciation and extinction rates through time as estimated with the Bayesian multivariate birth–death model in PyRate, while incorporating the effect of putative factors.b Dynamic of the net diversification rate through time. Solid lines indicate mean posterior rates, whereas the shaded areas show 95% CI.c,d Bayesian inferences of correlation parameters on speciation and extinction with abiotic factors like global temperature, global sea-level fluctuations, and global continental fragmentation; with biotic factors like the relative diversity through time of Polypodiales ferns, non-Polypodiales ferns, gymnosperms, and angiosperms; and diversity-dependence factors with the diversity through time of herbivorous, carnivorous, and all dinosaurs. The asterisk (*) indicates significant correlation parameter for a given variable (shrinkage weights (ω) > 0.5). Abbreviations as in Fig. 1. Dinosaur pictures courtesy of Fred Wierum (© Wikimedia Commons), Debivort (© Wikimedia Commons), Jack Mayer Wood (© Wikimedia Commons):https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ . Palaeomap used with permission © 2020 Colorado Plateau Geosystems Inc. Asteroid, plant pictures and other items made by Fabien Condamine.
a Diversity trajectories of the three carnivorous and three herbivorous dinosaur families at global scale. Reconstructions of diversity trajectories are the mean of 10 replicates, incorporating uncertainties around the age of the fossil occurrences.b Network showing the diversity-dependent effects within and between clades on speciation and extinction rates (only significant correlations are shown, Supplementary Table 2). Each arrow indicates the type of interaction imposed by a given group over another, which quantifies the proportion of rate change (decrease/increase for speciation or extinction) associated with the addition of one species of the competing group. Analyses for the New World dinosaurs only are presented in Supplementary Fig. 12 (Supplementary Table 3). Abbreviations as in Fig. 1. Dinosaur pictures courtesy of Fred Wierum (© Wikimedia Commons), Debivort (© Wikimedia Commons), Jack Mayer Wood (© Wikimedia Commons):https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ . Palaeomap used with permission © 2020 Colorado Plateau Geosystems Inc. Asteroid icon made by Fabien Condamine.
Similar articles
- The extinction of the dinosaurs.Brusatte SL, Butler RJ, Barrett PM, Carrano MT, Evans DC, Lloyd GT, Mannion PD, Norell MA, Peppe DJ, Upchurch P, Williamson TE.Brusatte SL, et al.Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2015 May;90(2):628-42. doi: 10.1111/brv.12128. Epub 2014 Jul 28.Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2015.PMID:25065505
- Dinosaur morphological diversity and the end-Cretaceous extinction.Brusatte SL, Butler RJ, Prieto-Márquez A, Norell MA.Brusatte SL, et al.Nat Commun. 2012 May 1;3:804. doi: 10.1038/ncomms1815.Nat Commun. 2012.PMID:22549833
- Asteroid impact, not volcanism, caused the end-Cretaceous dinosaur extinction.Chiarenza AA, Farnsworth A, Mannion PD, Lunt DJ, Valdes PJ, Morgan JV, Allison PA.Chiarenza AA, et al.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 21;117(29):17084-17093. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2006087117. Epub 2020 Jun 29.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020.PMID:32601204Free PMC article.
- Testing co-evolutionary hypotheses over geological timescales: interactions between Mesozoic non-avian dinosaurs and cycads.Butler RJ, Barrett PM, Kenrick P, Penn MG.Butler RJ, et al.Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2009 Feb;84(1):73-89. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2008.00065.x. Epub 2008 Dec 19.Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2009.PMID:19133960Review.
- Did dinosaurs invent flowers? Dinosaur-angiosperm coevolution revisited.Barrett PM, Willis KJ.Barrett PM, et al.Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2001 Aug;76(3):411-47. doi: 10.1017/s1464793101005735.Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2001.PMID:11569792Review.
Cited by
- Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous.Flannery-Sutherland JT, Crossan CD, Myers CE, Hendy AJW, Landman NH, Witts JD.Flannery-Sutherland JT, et al.Nat Commun. 2024 Jun 27;15(1):5382. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-49462-z.Nat Commun. 2024.PMID:38937471Free PMC article.
- Short-term paleogeographic reorganizations and climate events shaped diversification of North American freshwater gastropods over deep time.Neubauer TA, Harzhauser M, Hartman JH, Silvestro D, Scotese CR, Czaja A, Vermeij GJ, Wilke T.Neubauer TA, et al.Sci Rep. 2022 Sep 16;12(1):15572. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19759-4.Sci Rep. 2022.PMID:36114216Free PMC article.
- Relict duck-billed dinosaurs survived into the last age of the dinosaurs in subantarctic Chile.Alarcón-Muñoz J, Vargas AO, Püschel HP, Soto-Acuña S, Manríquez L, Leppe M, Kaluza J, Milla V, Gutstein CS, Palma-Liberona J, Stinnesbeck W, Frey E, Pino JP, Bajor D, Núñez E, Ortiz H, Rubilar-Rogers D, Cruzado-Caballero P.Alarcón-Muñoz J, et al.Sci Adv. 2023 Jun 16;9(24):eadg2456. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adg2456. Epub 2023 Jun 16.Sci Adv. 2023.PMID:37327335Free PMC article.
- Shifts in food webs and niche stability shaped survivorship and extinction at the end-Cretaceous.García-Girón J, Chiarenza AA, Alahuhta J, DeMar DG Jr, Heino J, Mannion PD, Williamson TE, Wilson Mantilla GP, Brusatte SL.García-Girón J, et al.Sci Adv. 2022 Dec 9;8(49):eadd5040. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add5040. Epub 2022 Dec 7.Sci Adv. 2022.PMID:36475805Free PMC article.
- Low dinosaur biodiversity in central China 2 million years prior to the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.Han F, Wang Q, Wang H, Zhu X, Zhou X, Wang Z, Fang K, Stidham TA, Wang W, Wang X, Li X, Qin H, Fan L, Wen C, Luo J, Pan Y, Deng C.Han F, et al.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Sep 27;119(39):e2211234119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2211234119. Epub 2022 Sep 19.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022.PMID:36122246Free PMC article.
References
- Weishampel, D. B., Dodson, P. & Osmólska, H. The Dinosauria 2nd edn (University of California Press, 2004).
- Fastovsky, D. E. & Weishampel, D. B. The Evolution and Extinction of the Dinosaurs (Cambridge University Press, 2005).
Publication types
MeSH terms
Associated data
Related information
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources