doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32318-7. Epub 2020 Nov 4.
Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination
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- PMID:33159850
- PMCID: PMC7836302
- DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32318-7
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Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination
Roy M Anderson et al. Lancet..
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Impact of vaccine efficacy and duration of protection on what percentage of the population must be vaccinated in the first year (A) and when the system approaches equilibrium in 2–3 years under continued vaccination (B) (A) The percentage of the population who must be vaccinated, pc(1) × 100, for the first year of vaccination as a function of vaccine efficacy, ε, and protection duration (D=1/γ2), for Ro=2·5. Here the fraction who must be vaccinated within 1 year, pc(1), is defined in the appendix. If the value is greater than 100%, vaccination must take place more frequently than annually. (B) The percentage requiring vaccination in the population once the system has reached a new equilibrium after a few years of mass vaccination, as a function of vaccine efficacy and protection duration, for Ro=2·5. Ro=basic reproduction number.
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