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.2020 Feb 22;20(1):265.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-8331-7.

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

Affiliations

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

Frank Götmark et al. BMC Public Health..

Abstract

Background: The world population is expected to increase greatly this century, aggravating current problems related to climate, health, food security, biodiversity, energy and other vital resources. Population growth depends strongly on total fertility rate (TFR), but the relative importance of factors that influence fertility needs more study.

Methods: We analyze recent levels of fertility in relation to five factors: education (mean school years for females), economy (Gross Domestic Product, GDP, per capita), religiosity, contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), and strength of family planning programs. We compare six global regions: E Europe, W Europe and related countries, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Arab States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. In total, 141 countries are included in the analysis. We estimate the strength of relationships between TFR and the five factors by correlation or regression and present the results graphically.

Results: In decreasing order of strength, fertility (TFR) correlates negatively with education, CPR, and GDP per capita, and positively with religiosity. Europe deviates from other regions in several ways, e.g. TFR increases with education and decreases with religiosity in W Europe. TFR decreases with increasing strength of family planning programs in three regions, but only weakly so in a fourth, Sub-Saharan Africa (the two European regions lacked such programs). Most factors correlated with TFR are also correlated with each other. In particular, education correlates positively with GDP per capita but negatively with religiosity, which is also negatively related to contraception and GDP per capita.

Conclusions: These results help identify factors of likely importance for TFR in global regions and countries. More work is needed to establish causality and relative importance of the factors. Our novel quantitative analysis of TFR suggests that religiosity may counteract the ongoing decline of fertility in some regions and countries.

Keywords: Demography; Economy; Education; Family planning; Human population; Population policy; Religiosity; Schooling; Sustainability.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Mean (±SD) Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Countries in Six Global Regions and its Relationship to Four Factors
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Countries Within each of Six Global Regions, in Relation to Mean Number of School Years for Females (Note Different Scales on Y-axes)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Countries Within each of Six Global Regions, in Relation to the Proportion of Respondents saying “Yes” to the Question “Is Religion an Important Part of Your Daily Life?” (Note Different Scales on Y- and X-axes)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Countries Within each of Six Global Regions, in Relation to Mean Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (%) (Note Different Scales on Y- and X-axes)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Countries Within each of Six Global Regions, in Relation to GDP Per Capita (international dollars) for the Countries (Note Different Scales on Y- and X-axes)
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Pairwise Correlations (Pearson’sr) Between the Four Factors Related to TFR, with Circle Size Proportional tor, and Colors indicating Positive or Negative Correlation
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for Countries Within each of Four Global Regions, in Relation to Strength of Family Planning Programs (FPE index)
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