[The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China]
- PMID:32064853
- DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.003
[The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China]
Abstract
Objective: An outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China has spread quickly nationwide. Here, we report results of a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020.Methods: All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China's Infectious Disease Information System. Analyses included: 1) summary of patient characteristics; 2) examination of age distributions and sex ratios; 3) calculation of case fatality and mortality rates; 4) geo-temporal analysis of viral spread; 5) epidemiological curve construction; and 6) subgroup analysis.Results: A total of 72 314 patient records-44 672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16 186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10567 (14.6%) clinical diagnosed cases (Hubei only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild/mild pneumonia (80.9%). A total of 1 023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case-fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei sometime after December 2019 and by February 11, 2020, 1 386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked in January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1 716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%).Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly. It only took 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.
目的： 新型冠状病毒肺炎在武汉暴发流行以来，已在全国范围内蔓延。对截至2020年2月11日中国内地报告所有病例的流行病学特征进行描述和分析。方法： 选取截至2020年2月11日中国内地传染病报告信息系统中上报所有新型冠状病毒肺炎病例。分析包括：①患者特征；②病死率；③年龄分布和性别比例；④疾病传播的时空特点；⑤所有病例、湖北省以外病例和医务人员病例的流行病学曲线。结果： 中国内地共报告72 314例病例，其中确诊病例44 672例（61.8%），疑似病例16 186例（22.4%），临床诊断病例10 567例（14.6%），无症状感染者889例（1.2%）。在确诊病例中，大多数年龄在30～79岁（86.6%），湖北省（74.7%），轻/中症病例为主（80.9%）。确诊病例中，死亡1 023例，粗病死率为2.3%。个案调查结果提示，疫情在2019年12月从湖北向外传播，截至2020年2月11日，全国31个省的1 386个县区受到了影响。流行曲线显示在1月23－26日达到峰值，并且观察到发病数下降趋势。截至2月11日，共有1 716名医务工作者感染，其中5人死亡，粗病死率为0.3%。结论： 新型冠状病毒肺炎传播流行迅速，从首次报告病例日后30 d蔓延至31个省（区/市），疫情在1月24－26日达到首个流行峰，2月1日出现单日发病异常高值，而后逐渐下降。随着人们返回工作岗位，需积极应对可能出现的疫情反弹。.
Keywords: 2019 Novel Coronavirus; Epidemiological characteristics; Outbreak.
Comment in
- Active smoking is not associated with severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Lippi G, Henry BM.Lippi G, et al.Eur J Intern Med. 2020 May;75:107-108. doi: 10.1016/j.ejim.2020.03.014. Epub 2020 Mar 16.Eur J Intern Med. 2020.PMID:32192856Free PMC article.No abstract available.
- ECMO for ARDS due to COVID-19.Ñamendys-Silva SA.Ñamendys-Silva SA.Heart Lung. 2020 Jul-Aug;49(4):348-349. doi: 10.1016/j.hrtlng.2020.03.012. Epub 2020 Mar 26.Heart Lung. 2020.PMID:32223988Free PMC article.No abstract available.
- Older people and epidemics: a call for empathy.Doraiswamy S, Cheema S, Mamtani R.Doraiswamy S, et al.Age Ageing. 2020 Apr 27;49(3):493. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afaa060.Age Ageing. 2020.PMID:32227214Free PMC article.No abstract available.
- Letter to the Editor: Issues on COVID-19 Pathogenesis.Silva Júnior JVJ, Lopes TRR, de Oliveira PSB, Weiblen R, Flores EF.Silva Júnior JVJ, et al.Viral Immunol. 2021 Jun;34(5):358-360. doi: 10.1089/vim.2020.0059. Epub 2020 Apr 27.Viral Immunol. 2021.PMID:32339089No abstract available.
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- 2018ZX10201002-008-002/Research Based on Epidemic Law of Animal-derived Influenza and Related Influencing Factors, National Science and Technology Foundation of China
- 71934002/Research on Public Health Risk Prevention and Model Innovation under the Background of "the belt and road initiative", National Natural Science Foundation of China
- 2018ZX10201002- 008-002/Research Based on Epidemic Law of Animal-derived Influenza and Related Influencing Factors, National Science and Technology Foundation of China
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