Review

.2020 Mar 16;375(1794):20190105.

doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105. Epub 2020 Jan 27.

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Monica G Turner¹, W John Calder², Graeme S Cumming³, Terry P Hughes³, Anke Jentsch⁴, Shannon L LaDeau⁵, Timothy M Lenton⁶, Bryan N Shuman², Merritt R Turetsky⁷, Zak Ratajczak¹, John W Williams⁸, A Park Williams⁹, Stephen R Carpenter¹⁰

Affiliations

¹ Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
² Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
³ ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
⁴ Department of Disturbance Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany.
⁵ Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA.
⁶ Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
⁷ Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada N1G 2W1.
⁸ Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
⁹ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
¹⁰ Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

PMID:31983326
PMCID: PMC7017767
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105

Review

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Monica G Turner et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci.2020.

.2020 Mar 16;375(1794):20190105.

doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105. Epub 2020 Jan 27.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
² Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA.
³ ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
⁴ Department of Disturbance Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany.
⁵ Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA.
⁶ Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
⁷ Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada N1G 2W1.
⁸ Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
⁹ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
¹⁰ Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

PMID:31983326
PMCID: PMC7017767
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105

Abstract

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Keywords: disturbance; ecological memory; regime shift; resilience; thresholds.

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Conflict of interest statement

We declare we have no competing interests.

References

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1. Hughes TP, et al. 2018. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science 359, 80–83. ( 10.1126/science.aan8048) - DOI - PubMed
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Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

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Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

References

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Medical