doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau8932. eCollection 2019 Mar.
The weakening relationship between Eurasian spring snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Taotao Zhang 1 2, Tao Wang 1 3, Gerhard Krinner 4, Xiaoyi Wang 1, Thomas Gasser 5, Shushi Peng 6, Shilon Piao 1 2 3, Tandong Yao 3
Affiliations
- PMID:31114796
- PMCID: PMC6527258
- DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau8932
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The weakening relationship between Eurasian spring snow cover and Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Taotao Zhang et al. Sci Adv..
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Abstract
Substantial progress has been made in understanding how Eurasian snow cover variabilities affect the Indian summer monsoon, but the snow-monsoon relationship in a warming atmosphere remains controversial. Using long-term observational snow and rainfall data (1967-2015), we identified that the widely recognized inverse relationship of central Eurasian spring snow cover with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has disappeared since 1990. The apparent loss of this negative correlation is mainly due to the central Eurasian spring snow cover no longer regulating the summer mid-tropospheric temperature over the Iranian Plateau and surroundings, and hence the land-ocean thermal contrast after 1990. A reduced lagged snow-hydrological effect, resulting from a warming-induced decline in spring snow cover, constitutes the possible mechanism for the breakdown of the snow-air temperature connection after 1990. Our results suggest that, in a changing climate, Eurasian spring snow cover may not be a faithful predictor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Figures
(A) Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients (R) of spring SCF over Eurasia with AISMR for the period 1967–2015. (B andC) Same as (A) but for the periods 1967–1990 and 1991–2015, respectively. (D) Time series of detrended AISMR and CESCF. AISMR is all-Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June to September) from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), and CESCF denotes the area-weighted average spring (March to May) SCF over central Eurasia. Note that the order of the right-side axis is reversed to enable easier comparison of the time series. The line chart embedded in (D) denotes a 15-year sliding correlation between AISMR and CESCF. SignificantR values are identified as gray dashed lines (P < 0.05). The black dots in (A) to (C) indicate that theR is statistically significant (P < 0.05). The red boxes represent the region of central Eurasia (40° to 80°E, 35° to 65°N), and the black box denotes the northeast Eurasia (100° to 140°E, 65° to 73°N).
(A) Frequency distributions of the correlation coefficients of CESCF with AISMR for 1967–1990 and 1991–2015. We calculated the correlation coefficients by randomly selecting 20 years in each corresponding period. Significant correlation coefficients are indicated by the gray dashed lines (P < 0.05). (B) Partial correlation coefficients of CESCF and AISMR (RCESCF-AISMR) for 1967–1990 and 1991–2015, calculated by statistically controlling for the effect of ENSO, NAO, and IOD in turn. The originalRCESCF-AISMR denotes the correlation analysis without excluding any other effects. The asterisks indicate that the correlations are statistically significant (P < 0.05). (C andD) Linear regression of CRU-derived Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June to September) with respect to CESCF for 1967–1990 and 1991–2015, respectively. The black dots represent significant rainfall anomalies at the 95% confidence level based on a Student’st test.
(A andB) Linear regression of summer (June to September) air temperature (AT) (°C) and wind fields (m/s) at 500 hPa with respect to CESCF for 1967–1990 and 1991–2015, respectively. (C andD) Linear regression of air temperature with respect to AISMR for 1967–1990 and 1991–2015, respectively. The pink dashed lines represent significant air temperature anomalies at the 95% confidence level, and black arrows denote that the wind anomalies are statistically significant (P < 0.05) based on a Student’st test. (E toG) Correlation coefficients of CESCF with air temperature averaged over the IPS, that of CESCF with AISMR, and that of AISMR with air temperature over the IPS, respectively. The IPS is denoted by the red box in (A). The asterisks indicate that the correlation coefficients are statistically significant (P < 0.05). All the temperature and wind data are derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis.
(A) Time series of the CESCF. The blue and red lines represent mean CESCF for 1967–1990 and 1991–2015, respectively. (B) Seasonal evolution of CESCF during two periods. (C) Correlation coefficients (R) of monthly mean soil moisture with spring (March, April, and May) soil moisture averaged over central Eurasia for the periods 1967–1990 and 1991–2015. The gray dashed line denotes theR significant at 95% confidence level.
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