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.2018 Jul 16;9(1):2728.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05003-z.

The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling

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The paradigm shift in Antarctic ice sheet modelling

Frank Pattyn. Nat Commun..

Abstract

The Antarctic ice sheet is one of the largest potential contributors to future sea level rise. Predicting its future behaviour using physically-based ice sheet models has been a bottleneck for the past decades, but major advances are ongoing.

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Conflict of interest statement

The author declares no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Instability scenarios.a Marine Ice Sheet Instability versusb Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). Ice discharge generally increases with increasing ice thickness at the grounding line. For a bed sloping down towards the interior this may lead to unstable groundingline retreat (MISI), as increased flux (due to reduced buttressing) leads to thinning and eventually flotation, which moves the grounding line into deeper water where the ice is thicker. Thicker ice results in increased ice flux, which further thins the ice, which results in further retreat into deeper water (and thicker ice), and so on. MICI is the result of collapse of exposed ice cliffs (after the ice shelf collapses due to hydro-fracturing) under their own weight. MISI applies for a retrograde slope bed, while MICI can also apply for prograde slopes
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