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.2017 May 16;12(5):e0177937.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0177937. eCollection 2017.

Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact

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Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact

Jeremy E Diem et al. PLoS One..

Abstract

High summer temperatures in extratropical areas have an impact on the public's health, mainly through heat stress, high air pollution concentrations, and the transmission of tropical diseases. The purpose of this study is to examine the current characteristics of heat events and future projections of summer apparent temperature (AT)-and associated health concerns-throughout the southeastern United States. Synoptic climatology was used to assess the atmospheric characteristics of extreme heat days (EHDs) from 1979-2015. Ozone concentrations also were examined during EHDs. Trends in summer-season AT over the 37-year period and correlations between AT and atmospheric circulation were determined. Mid-century estimates of summer AT were calculated using downscaled data from an ensemble of global climate models. EHDs throughout the Southeast were characterized by ridging and anticyclones over the Southeast and the presence of moist tropical air masses. Exceedingly high ozone concentrations occurred on EHDs in the Atlanta area and throughout central North Carolina. While summer ATs did not increase significantly from 1979-2015, summer ATs are projected to increase substantially by mid-century, with most the Southeast having ATs similar to that of present-day southern Florida (i.e., a tropical climate). High ozone concentrations should continue to occur during future heat events. Large urban areas are expected to be the most affected by the future warming, resulting from intensifying and expanding urban heat islands, a large increase in heat-vulnerable populations, and climate conditions that will be highly suitable for tropical-disease transmission by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This nexus of vulnerability creates the potential for heat-related morbidity and mortality, as well as the appearance of disease not previously seen in the region. These effects can be attenuated by policies that reduce urban heat (e.g., cool roofs and green roofs) and that improve infrastructure (e.g. emergency services, conditioned space).

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests:The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. The southeastern United States and the apparent-temperature regions within it.
The 63 weather stations and 63 ozone monitors for which data were obtained are shown in addition to the urbanization of 1-km2 cells based on percent impervious surface. Impervious-surface data, originally at 30-m resolution, were obtained from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics consortium.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Flowchart for calculating apparent temperature (in °F).
Temperature (T) is in degrees Fahrenheit and relative humidity (RH) is in percent. The flowchart is based on previous representations of the equations used to calculate the heat index [33,35].
Fig 3
Fig 3. Mean apparent temperatures for extreme heat days.
Values are °C and the isotherms are deviations (°C) from the mean seasonal apparent temperature.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Circulation characteristics of extreme heat days.
(a) Mean 500-hPa geopotential heights (black lines) on July-August extreme heat days (EHDs) for the eight regions are shown as solid black lines. (b) Mean 850-hPa geopotential heights (black lines) on July-August EHDs for the eight regions are shown as solid black lines. Positive and negative deviations from mean July-August heights are shown as solid red lines and dashed blue lines, respectively. The red numbers are the maximum positive deviations. (c) Three-day air-mass back trajectories for the eight regions. The red lines are trajectories for 30 random extreme heat days. The blue lines are trajectories for 30 random days that are not extreme heat days.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Mean daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations on extreme heat days in July-August from 2000–2015.
The black lines are mean daily maximum 8-hr average ozone concentrations on all days in July-August.
Fig 6
Fig 6. Correlation between June-August apparent temperature and 500-hPa heights from 1979–2015.
The grey circles are the centroids of the eight regions.
Fig 7
Fig 7. Time series and trends for apparent temperatures for the eight regions.
(a) Interannual variability in June (blue), July (orange), August (green), and June-August (red) apparent temperatures and frequency of extreme heat days. (b) Trends (°C decade-1) in apparent temperature for June (blue), July (orange), August (green), and June-August (red). Stars denote significant (α = 0.01; one-tailed) trends.
Fig 8
Fig 8. Projections of summer apparent temperatures in 2050.
Projections under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios are derived from temperature and relative humidity projections from model output using those scenarios. The solid black (dashed black) line is the projected (present-day) 31°C isotherm.
Fig 9
Fig 9. Trend in 500-hPa geopotential heights from 1979–2015.
The values are Kendall-Tau correlation coefficients. Significant (α = 0.01; one-tailed) trends are denoted by stippling.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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