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.2017 Jun;23(6):957-964.
doi: 10.3201/eid2306.151603.

Outbreak-Related Disease Burden Associated with Consumption of Unpasteurized Cow's Milk and Cheese, United States, 2009-2014

Outbreak-Related Disease Burden Associated with Consumption of Unpasteurized Cow's Milk and Cheese, United States, 2009-2014

Solenne Costard et al. Emerg Infect Dis.2017 Jun.

Abstract

The growing popularity of unpasteurized milk in the United States raises public health concerns. We estimated outbreak-related illnesses and hospitalizations caused by the consumption of cow's milk and cheese contaminated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., Listeria monocytogenes, and Campylobacter spp. using a model relying on publicly available outbreak data. In the United States, outbreaks associated with dairy consumption cause, on average, 760 illnesses/year and 22 hospitalizations/year, mostly from Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. Unpasteurized milk, consumed by only 3.2% of the population, and cheese, consumed by only 1.6% of the population, caused 96% of illnesses caused by contaminated dairy products. Unpasteurized dairy products thus cause 840 (95% CrI 611-1,158) times more illnesses and 45 (95% CrI 34-59) times more hospitalizations than pasteurized products. As consumption of unpasteurized dairy products grows, illnesses will increase steadily; a doubling in the consumption of unpasteurized milk or cheese could increase outbreak-related illnesses by 96%.

Keywords: Campylobacter; E. coli; Escherichia coli; Listeria; Salmonella; United States; bacteria; cheese; disease outbreaks; food safety; foodborne diseases; foodborne illnesses; milk; pasteurization; public health; raw foods; risk; risk assessment.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Process for selecting US outbreaks associated with cow’s milk and cheese, 2009–2014. Laboratory-confirmed cases are cases with illness in which a specimen was collected and a laboratory was able to confirm the pathogen(s) or agent(s) causing illness. Hospitalizations are cases in which the patient was hospitalized as a result of becoming ill during the outbreak. NORS, National Outbreak Reporting System.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Stochastic model used to estimate the excess risk of outbreak-related illnesses and hospitalization due to unpasteurized dairy product consumption in the United States, 2009–2014. Model contains 3 main components: estimation of the incidence rates of illness and hospitalization for pasteurized and unpasteurized dairy products (elements in the boxes with solid lines), estimation of the excess risk associated with unpasteurized milk or cheese consumption (elements in box with dashed lines), and evaluation of the impact of hypothetical changes in consumption of unpasteurized dairy products (elements in boxes with dotted lines).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Forest plot showing, on a logarithmic scale, the excess risk for outbreak-related illnesses and hospitalizations caused by consumption of pasteurized and unpasteurized milk and cheese, United States, 2009–2014. Markers indicate mean log IRR of outbreak-related illnesses and hospitalizations caused by the food pathogensCampylobacter spp.,Listeria monocytogenes,Salmonella spp., and Shiga toxin–producingEscherichia coli per 1 billion servings of unpasteurized milk or cheese relative to pasteurized products. Error bars indicate 95% credibility interval (CrI). Numbers above markers and bars are the IRR (not in log scale) and 95% CrI. log (IRR) = 0 indicates no difference in incidence rates between unpasteurized and pasteurized milk and cheese. IRR, incidence rate ratio.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Number of dairy-related outbreak illnesses predicted per year in the United States if unpasteurized cow’s milk and cheese consumption increases 0%, 10%, 20%, 50%, 100%, 200%, and 500%. Numbers in parentheses indicate percentage of total population consuming unpasteurized cow’s milk. The illnesses graphed are those from outbreaks associated with cow’s milk or cheese contaminated with Shiga toxin–producingEscherichia coli,Salmonella spp.,Listeria monocytogenes, andCampylobacter spp. Markers indicate means; bars indicate 95% prediction intervals. The consumption estimates were based on the year 2015, and a 0% increase corresponds to the current proportion of the US population consuming unpasteurized dairy products.
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