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.2016 Sep 27;113(39):10759-68.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1605516113. Epub 2016 Sep 16.

Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm

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Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm

Carlos A Nobre et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A..

Abstract

For half a century, the process of economic integration of the Amazon has been based on intensive use of renewable and nonrenewable natural resources, which has brought significant basin-wide environmental alterations. The rural development in the Amazonia pushed the agricultural frontier swiftly, resulting in widespread land-cover change, but agriculture in the Amazon has been of low productivity and unsustainable. The loss of biodiversity and continued deforestation will lead to high risks of irreversible change of its tropical forests. It has been established by modeling studies that the Amazon may have two "tipping points," namely, temperature increase of 4 °C or deforestation exceeding 40% of the forest area. If transgressed, large-scale "savannization" of mostly southern and eastern Amazon may take place. The region has warmed about 1 °C over the last 60 y, and total deforestation is reaching 20% of the forested area. The recent significant reductions in deforestation-80% reduction in the Brazilian Amazon in the last decade-opens up opportunities for a novel sustainable development paradigm for the future of the Amazon. We argue for a new development paradigm-away from only attempting to reconcile maximizing conservation versus intensification of traditional agriculture and expansion of hydropower capacity-in which we research, develop, and scale a high-tech innovation approach that sees the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets that can enable the creation of innovative high-value products, services, and platforms through combining advanced digital, biological, and material technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in progress.

Keywords: Amazon land use; Amazon savannization; Amazon sustainability; Amazon tropical forests; climate change impacts.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. S1.
Fig. S1.
Fraction of area with remaining forest for the entire Amazon as a function of scenarios of climate change only (gray bars) and combined climate change + deforestation (moss green bars) and climate change + deforestation + fire effect (pink bars) for time slices 2020–2030 (labeled “2025”) and 2040–2060 (labeled “2050”) under 20, 40, and 50% deforestation scenarios and for IPCC AR5 scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, and with or without including forest fire effects. The bars and error bars are averages and SD, respectively, for all models results. The CO2 fertilization effect is considered in the calculations by choosing photosynthetic assimilation rate as 25% of the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate.
Fig. S2.
Fig. S2.
Grid point where more than 2/3 of the nine ESMs’ climate projections assessed (“67% consensus) coincide as projecting the same future Amazon biome type in relation to current potential vegetation (P) (which is consistent with present climate conditions), for the time slice 2040–2060 (labeled “2050”): (A) climate change for RCP2.6 scenario + 20% deforestation + fire effect, (B) climate change for RCP2.6 scenario + 40% deforestation + fire effect, and (C) climate change for RCP2.6 scenario + 50% deforestation + fire effect; (D) climate change for RCP4.5 scenario + 20% deforestation + fire effect, (E), climate change for RCP4.5 scenario + 40% deforestation + fire effect, and (F) climate change for RCP4.5 scenario + 50% deforestation + fire effect; and (G) climate change for RCP8.5 scenario + 20% deforestation + fire effect, (H), climate change for RCP8.5 scenario + 40% deforestation + fire effect, and (I) climate change for RCP8.5 scenario + 50% deforestation + fire effect. White grid points (“Not consensus”) refer to the situation when fewer than six models project the same biome type. Biome types: dark green, tropical forest; light green, seasonal tropical forest; pink, tropical savanna.
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References

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